Plausibility Check: Earlier discovery of Alaska?

[January First-of-May]

Okay. As some of you probably already know, in 1648, Semyon Dezhnev sailed around the cape now named in his honor and thus crossed (what is now known as) Bering Strait. However, he had not noticed any land on the opposite shore of the strait, which IOTL remained undiscovered until 1732 - almost a century later.
This century-long gap had seriously hindered Russian expansion in the Americas, and ultimately led to what few Russian colonies did get set up being sold due to their near-uselessness. Now imagine what could've happened if the gap was far shorter... IOTL Russians had to give up Alta California to Spain, and never reached into Baja, while ITTL they have all the chance of grabbing most of Baja (and all of Alta... if they need it anyway as it's mostly desert) before the Spanish even get there!
We have here two different ways for a 17th-century discovery of Alaska. First, it's discovered by Dezhnev's expedition in 1648; second, it's discovered by another expedition slightly later following in Dezhnev's exploration.
I don't have enough knowledge to seriously discuss the first way here; most thoughts I do have on it are mostly described later on in this paragraph, as they relate to the second as well. As for the second: there are, of course, fairly obvious reasons that even the few things Dezhnev did discover were almost forgotten until well after the proper Alaskan discovery. Basically, the Russian Cossack-led expansion of the time preferred overland (mostly river-based) travel to using sea routes (even though the latter were usually quicker); and an overland route to Anadyrsk (the city founded by Dezhnev at the end of his route) was discovered by Stadukhin in 1650, thus making Dezhnev's sea route obsolete.
Thus, the question is now whether it is possible to make Russian expansion into Siberia follow sea at least as much as land - like it indeed did in the 16th and early 17th century, resulting in towns located very northerly (Berezovo founded 1593, Obdorsk 1595, Mangazeya 1600, Turukhansk 1607 - note though Surgut 1594 and Tomsk 1604 in a completely unrelated way). IMHO the obvious POD here is the closing of the Mangazeya trade route (approximately following the western portion of today's Northern Sea Route) in 1619; that basically shut down the sea-based Pomor expansion (there was still a lot of land-based expansion though - starting with Pyanda's expeditions of 1620-24, which don't seem to have been related to the closing even though they happened in that immediate area).

...I think I've veered way too much off the original topic. Which was, basically, this: whether an earlier (e.g. 1650s) discovery of Alaska is in any way plausible, and if so then how huge of a Russian America we're talking about in such a case?

(Unrelatedly: this would've been my 1000th post if not for BKW deciding to tease me in complicated ways. I think (if I haven't miscounted at least) that this is my 1003rd post now.)

 

[RGB]

It's...well. I think it's doable. But it's difficult. And actual colonization was slow.

Basically, in the 1640s, the Russians decided to explore south. They discovered farmable area there. Now even as far as Yakutsk you're outrunning any bread from european Russia, so that was important.

Bread was not secured, however, they stayed involved until the 1680s. Maybe have the Qing react faster and more firmly? Get them out of the very promising Amur basin and not waste time there?

So the pressure for northward and eastward expansion was always yasak. Two things happened there:

1. Yasak was tough where the Chukchi were involved, the initial contact was botched and gathering there was troublesome. There were a few serious conflicts there, and the Russians wasted a LOT of money and manpower on the place.

2. Cossacks, also, rebelled repeatedly against their commanders in the later 17th c. to the point where no new expeditions were launched by the Kamchatka cossacks except to Diomede islands. This paralysis with constant revolts lasted into the 1710s. The conflict with the Chukchi lasted longer. Both things were probably related.

So...

Here's my maybe-suggestions:

1. Stay away from the Amur, or have the Qing intervene earlier.
2. Have reasonable people in charge, make an alliance with the Chukchi instead of trying to force yasak from them.
3. Have relative smooth sailing in the garrisons because of more reasonable people and more peaceful setting.

Where to get reasonable people? Huge question. Probably from the bureaucracy and not from among local cossacks. More involvement by the state for less gain? don't know.

Island-hopping becomes very easy, even on relatively small ships, if everything's relatively quiet. You can reach Japan in a few years if the expeditions go well. You can reach Alaska by the 1670s. You can probably reach California by the early 1710/1720s.

The sea-otter pelts would be HIGHLY prized. It would be a gold rush of sorts.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

1) alaska was discovered earlier. Like 12000 years earlier. And settled. And then discovered again rather later by the ancestors of the athapascan/dene. And then again by the stock that produced the aleut and inuit. Obligatory PC comment.

2) logistics. To cross all of russia by canoe, set up a major base on the east coast and project power from there? How?

 

[January First-of-May]

Thanks for the discussion so far... hope I'd get more though! I'll try to reply to both answers received as well as I can (in hopes of spurring further discussion).

It's...well. I think it's doable. But it's difficult. And actual colonization was slow.

Basically, in the 1640s, the Russians decided to explore south. They discovered farmable area there. Now even as far as Yakutsk you're outrunning any bread from european Russia, so that was important.

Bread was not secured, however, they stayed involved until the 1680s. Maybe have the Qing react faster and more firmly? Get them out of the very promising Amur basin and not waste time there?

So the pressure for northward and eastward expansion was always yasak. Two things happened there:

1. Yasak was tough where the Chukchi were involved, the initial contact was botched and gathering there was troublesome. There were a few serious conflicts there, and the Russians wasted a LOT of money and manpower on the place.

2. Cossacks, also, rebelled repeatedly against their commanders in the later 17th c. to the point where no new expeditions were launched by the Kamchatka cossacks except to Diomede islands. This paralysis with constant revolts lasted into the 1710s. The conflict with the Chukchi lasted longer. Both things were probably related.

So...

Here's my maybe-suggestions:

1. Stay away from the Amur, or have the Qing intervene earlier.
2. Have reasonable people in charge, make an alliance with the Chukchi instead of trying to force yasak from them.
3. Have relative smooth sailing in the garrisons because of more reasonable people and more peaceful setting.

Where to get reasonable people? Huge question. Probably from the bureaucracy and not from among local cossacks. More involvement by the state for less gain? don't know.

Island-hopping becomes very easy, even on relatively small ships, if everything's relatively quiet. You can reach Japan in a few years if the expeditions go well. You can reach Alaska by the 1670s. You can probably reach California by the early 1710/1720s.

The sea-otter pelts would be HIGHLY prized. It would be a gold rush of sorts.

I haven't quite realized that the Chukchi were involved... should've realized that, it's obvious really. How exactly was the initial contact botched, and could it have gone "right"?
And, Diomede Islands? Are you confusing something? Excepting possibly Dezhnev's expedition, these don't appear to have been discovered until Bering in 1728, well after the "later 17th century".
Either way, I love the Qing idea... oh the ways in which history can be interlinked. In fact, it might not be long to go until a TL could be done (though probably not by me).

1) alaska was discovered earlier. Like 12000 years earlier. And settled. And then discovered again rather later by the ancestors of the athapascan/dene. And then again by the stock that produced the aleut and inuit. Obligatory PC comment.

2) logistics. To cross all of russia by canoe, set up a major base on the east coast and project power from there? How?

1) Do you think I'm so stupid as to not realize that? Okay, maybe not in such detail, but still.
2)
Discounting that no canoes were actually involved (they're a type of Native American boats... and while Siberian kayaks are fairly close to that, the actual boats Russian colonists used at the time were koches which aren't), I don't see how it was any more impossible in the 1660s than in the 1760s.
Also, like RGB said, island hopping (either through the Diomedes or Commanders/Aleuts, presumably).
Oh, and I never mentioned how long does such a huge Russian America survive for though admittedly they would have well enough time to build a power base at least comparable to that of other colonisers in the region, and very possibly keep if not all or most of the original holdings, then at least far more than OTL's state of Alaska!

 

[FDW]

This century-long gap had seriously hindered Russian expansion in the Americas, and ultimately led to what few Russian colonies did get set up being sold due to their near-uselessness. Now imagine what could've happened if the gap was far shorter... IOTL Russians had to give up Alta California to Spain, and never reached into Baja, while ITTL they have all the chance of grabbing most of Baja (and all of Alta... if they need it anyway as it's mostly desert) before the Spanish even get there!

Actually, it's the other way around: Baja is mostly desert, while Alta is much wetter on the coast (though the rains are inconsistent) and and habitable in the interior in the, Central Valley, Great Salt Lake and Gila River Basin areas.

And the Russians are hardly the first non-indigenous people that could discover Alaska, with the right triggers, one of the East Asian states could also do so. (Most likely Japan or a Japanese state, but not only)

 

[Lord Grattan]

1) alaska was discovered earlier. Like 12000 years earlier. And settled. And then discovered again rather later by the ancestors of the athapascan/dene. And then again by the stock that produced the aleut and inuit. Obligatory PC comment.

So Columbus didn't discover North America?

Seriously though, I suppose that the Chinese or Japanese could have "discovered" OTL Alaska earlier, though I can't see why they'd head in that direction.

 

[RGB]

I haven't quite realized that the Chukchi were involved... should've realized that, it's obvious really. How exactly was the initial contact botched, and could it have gone "right"?

They built a fort, and started extracting tribute as usual. The Chukchi who were the native powerhouse people resented the Russians using their former tributaries (like the Koryaks) against them. This provoked yasak avoidance and even resistance.

Russians responded with massacres, blah blah, about 200+ servicemen died there and hundreds of thousands of roubles were spent on the forts. That's a waste of epic proportions. Catherine II solved the problem by just making an alliance and razing the fort.

I think maybe the Russians wanted a repeat of the Yakut experience, but it didn't quite work that way. Maybe they could even subcontract the Chukchi to gather for them, who knows. There's ways where it didn't have to waste energy.

Diomedes - definitely mixing things up. Northern Kurile chain is what I meant. But it's not exactly impossible to happen upon the Diomedes either.

You like my Qing? I love your Mangazeya. In fact, western interference that the Tsars wanted prevented would probably spur more concentrated attempts at extending East.

Finally...I think the 1650-70s is when you start getting a lot of second-generation Cossacks in the expeditions, and they had a much more localized outlook. That made them good yasak gatherers but maybe not great sailors.

Russia should have continued sending service cossacks from the North instead, since they were the backbone of exploration even during the Bering years and were prominent afterwards too. That's why I said I love your Mangazeya, it gives Russia pressure to develop Arctic sailing techniques that can take them to Alaska sooner.

Also - I do not know, but did the Aleuts ever come across Kamchatka? Because just a couple of people interviewed would have given the Cossacks a clear reason to try to find their homeland and thus get to America sooner.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

An earlier Russian colonization of Alaska would be quite risky at the era when the Thirty Years' War may still be happening, plus that the Romanov Tsardom would still be reeling from the economic troubles due to the Times of Troubles and Stenka Razin's rebellion. There is a way to avoid these altogether (not the Thirty Years' War):

1) To avoid the Times of Troubles, a stable line of succession should occur during the Godunov dynasty (Fedor II surviving can work here). Alternatively, you can have another dynasty other than the Godunov or Romanov dynasties. (Shuisky dynasty can work, although I'm not sure how this would turn out) In my plans for my rewritten Russian TL, I'm thinking of having Ksenia Godunova marry Duke John of Ostergotland. (who is a Swedish Vasa)

2) Or a more destructive Razin's rebellion. Though this cannot be avoided, Razin's rebellion along with a possible Polish victory in another Russo-Polish War could shake Russia up to its foundations so much that they'll be looking to make a complete overhaul.

I'm planning to do this TL myself, though I'm stuck between merely doing the rewrite with the addition of a PoD in Great Britain (Having Edward VI survive plus an early death for Bloody Mary could result in the dream match of Ivan IV-Elizabeth couple), and starting from scratch with a longer PoD that may potentially change everything.

 

[January First-of-May]

An earlier Russian colonization of Alaska would be quite risky at the era when the Thirty Years' War may still be happening, plus that the Romanov Tsardom would still be reeling from the economic troubles due to the Times of Troubles and Stenka Razin's rebellion. There is a way to avoid these altogether (not the Thirty Years' War):

1) To avoid the Times of Troubles, a stable line of succession should occur during the Godunov dynasty (Fedor II surviving can work here). Alternatively, you can have another dynasty other than the Godunov or Romanov dynasties. (Shuisky dynasty can work, although I'm not sure how this would turn out) In my plans for my rewritten Russian TL, I'm thinking of having Ksenia Godunova marry Duke John of Ostergotland. (who is a Swedish Vasa)

2) Or a more destructive Razin's rebellion. Though this cannot be avoided, Razin's rebellion along with a possible Polish victory in another Russo-Polish War could shake Russia up to its foundations so much that they'll be looking to make a complete overhaul.

I'm planning to do this TL myself, though I'm stuck between merely doing the rewrite with the addition of a PoD in Great Britain (Having Edward VI survive plus an early death for Bloody Mary could result in the dream match of Ivan IV-Elizabeth couple), and starting from scratch with a longer PoD that may potentially change everything.

I kind of intended a POD either circa 1648 or in the late 1610s (the Mangazeya scenario). So the Romanovs are already around. Besides, I have no idea how to get Fedor II to survive (though I do agree that he'll be the ideal guy to lead over serious colonization - I mean, could there be a better choice than someone who drew a map of Russia, known Siberia included?)

I really don't want a POD as early as your English one; that's liable to butterfly away Yermak's conquests, and thus possibly get rid of Siberian expansion entirely - which seems exactly opposite to what you intended!

As for Razin's rebellion, it started in 1667, so it only matters in the latest PODs; even a pre-1619 POD would possibly butterfly 1630-born Razin away completely.

Oh, and I didn't really think about the Thirty Years' War, or that it relates in any way with Russian colonization. What are your ideas on such a relation? IMHO it would only put a halt to Western European attempts to colonize Russian Arctic... just in time, it seems, for the Mangazeya route to suddenly become safe again if it continues on for just a few more years after 1619. Talk about bad timing...


PS:

Also - I do not know, but did the Aleuts ever come across Kamchatka? Because just a couple of people interviewed would have given the Cossacks a clear reason to try to find their homeland and thus get to America sooner.

Well, the Commander Islands seem to have been uninhabited before being discovered by Bering IOTL, so such a link is fairly unlikely.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

So I guess the English PoD would get rid of Yermak's conquests, although would having the port of Ivangorod rebuilt also affect the butterflies as well? If that is the case, then how about an early expansion into the Black Sea?

Also, the Thirty Years' War would have distracted both Poland-Lithuania and Sweden from what's going on in the Russian Tsardom though. Is it bad timing on the Western Europeans' part or on the Russians' part? Having Fedor II could also work, although I wonder if the Godunovs could rise to power a lot earlier with Ivan IV's abdication.

 

[January First-of-May]

So I guess the English PoD would get rid of Yermak's conquests, although would having the port of Ivangorod rebuilt also affect the butterflies as well? If that is the case, then how about an early expansion into the Black Sea?

Also, the Thirty Years' War would have distracted both Poland-Lithuania and Sweden from what's going on in the Russian Tsardom though. Is it bad timing on the Western Europeans' part or on the Russians' part? Having Fedor II could also work, although I wonder if the Godunovs could rise to power a lot earlier with Ivan IV's abdication.

I've no idea what would happen with Ivangorod rebuilt - but I'm sure it won't involve Alaska! In fact ITTL Russian colonies in North America would probably start on the Atlantic shore, not the Pacific one like IOTL... that is if there's any, which now that I think of it doesn't seem too likely.

As for the Thirty Years' War, I meant bad timing on the OTL Russians' part - closing the trade route just years before it would've became safe again. Note though that a POD in the 1550s would likely also butterfly away OTL's Fedor II - which is a pity as he really seems to be the perfect guy to lead Russia into serious Siberian colonization!

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

So what should be a good PoD for Russia's early colonization of Alaska, and would it be better if they were denied access to the Baltic and Black Sea trades? The only reason why I stated the completion of Ivangorod's port was to butterfly the Livonian War, which in itself would be challenging. You may need a Russian monarch who is willing to focus eastwards more aggressively at an early time.

The real question is: how do you have a surviving Godunov dynasty that can last as long as the OTL Romanov dynasty? Aside from killing off Filaret Romanov.

 

[January First-of-May]

So what should be a good PoD for Russia's early colonization of Alaska, and would it be better if they were denied access to the Baltic and Black Sea trades? The only reason why I stated the completion of Ivangorod's port was to butterfly the Livonian War, which in itself would be challenging. You may need a Russian monarch who is willing to focus eastwards more aggressively at an early time.

The real question is: how do you have a surviving Godunov dynasty that can last as long as the OTL Romanov dynasty? Aside from killing off Filaret Romanov.

IMHO (though it's only my opinion) Fedor II would be, as I already said, just about the ideal guy to, quote, "focus eastwards more aggressively at an early time".
However, I indeed don't see any way for him to survive the first months of his reign... if you do see some it'll probably be interesting to write about. Maybe if one of Xenia's weddings goes through?

(Can't say much on the Livonian War part - waiting for others to add something in.)

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

IMHO (though it's only my opinion) Fedor II would be, as I already said, just about the ideal guy to, quote, "focus eastwards more aggressively at an early time".
However, I indeed don't see any way for him to survive the first months of his reign... if you do see some it'll probably be interesting to write about. Maybe if one of Xenia's weddings goes through?

(Can't say much on the Livonian War part - waiting for others to add something in.)

Getting rid of Filaret Romanov would boost the Godunov dynasty's chances of survival, though Fedor II would still be surrounded by hostile boyars. If Boris Godunov survives a bit longer, plus if he can enact the same brutal streak as Ivan the Terrible in killing off his rivals, then the line of succession within the Godunov dynasty would be stable.

On the other hand, if Russia would be successful in its earlier colonization of Siberia and Alaska, then where should they build their first port? Also, I looked at my earlier posts from last year about a surviving Ivan Ivanovich while you also added some of your comments. I believe it's this thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=189542

Of course, Ivan IV not beating Yelena Sheremetyeva to death would be the ideal 1581 AD onwards PoD. Not only would it butterfly the Times of Troubles, but it can prolong the survival of the Rurikid Dynasty. Of course, the downside to this might be no Godunov or Romanov dynasty at all.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

The Livonian War had effectively weakened Russia financially though to the point where they had lost the war. So I'm not sure if there could be a way to prevent the Livonian War from breaking out, leaving Russia financially strong enough to finance the Mangazeya trans-Ural to Siberia trade. Also, how realistically large could a Russian Alaska get?