Plausibility and effects of an early Norwegian rediscovery of Vinland?

[stephen rude]

A lot of the timelines and discussion about the Norse exploration of North America I've seen tend to focus on the initial discoveries and settlements, and wether or not it would be feasible for them to survive on their own. I think that makes a lot of sense narratively, but lately I've instead been drawn to the idea of Vinland being rediscovered by the Norse sometime later, and the events that might've unfolded from this. Afterall, although the settlement (if it even was a permanent settlement) at L'Anse aux Meadows only lasted a short while, the idea that there was more land to the Southwest of Greenland seems to have survived both in Iceland and mainland Scandinavia.

According to wiki, the Greenlandic Norse became subjects of the King of Norway in 1261. Let's suppose that sometime after this, but before the black death massively screws over Norway, a particularly ambitious, pious or just plain curious Norwegian monarch sends one or more exploratory expedition to North America to rediscover Vinland, convert the indigenous or just to see what's there. They explore the areas around the Labrador Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. They don't find any traces of previous Norse settlements, but they get a decent sense of the geography, encounter some of the native peoples and discover the Grand Banks fisheries, thereby potentially creating an incentive to return. Now, what happens next? How would this early rediscovery impact North America and Europe? Would we see the European settlement of the Americas start centuries earlier, or are the logistical limitations of Trans-Atlantic settlements and trade too large to overcome in this time period? Furthermore does this even seem like a vaguely plausible series of events? if not, feel free to tweak it to make it more realistic.

 

[stephen rude]

Supposing that the Norwegians do end up making a small settlement in North America, let's say sometime in the late 13th early 14th century, I'd imagine that a lot of the early settlers would be mainly Greenlandic Norse and Icelandic people. Besides the fact that it's a shorter trip than from Norway, both groups would have incentives to head west. The Greenlanders as a way to avoid the worst of the Little Ice Age, and the Icelandic because Iceland periodically suffered from food scarcities and overpopulation. Am I correct in thinking, that since both Greenland and Iceland weren't as involved in the European trade networks, these settlers might not be carriers of some of the diseases that decimated the Native Americans in OTL?

With the black death just around the corner in Europe, I'd imagine that'd put a lid on on the amount of settlers arriving from mainland Norway, at least until the population at home has stabilized somewhat. How would relations and trade between the Native Americans and the small, but steadily increasing European settler population develop, in the absence of the various diseases that played such a large role in that relationship OTL? Conversely, might the Norwegians end up spreading the Bubonic plague to the American Northeast and what would that mean for the development of the region and people that inhabit it?

 

[CommieScum]

Whats stopping this Neo-Vinland from meeting the same fate as the old one? Particularly as, as already pointed out, conditions are actually less favourable here with the dawn of the little Ice Age and the Greenland settlement, which will be crucial to any hope of survival in North America, itself struggles to survive.

 

[stephen rude]

Whats stopping this Neo-Vinland from meeting the same fate as the old one? Particularly as, as already pointed out, conditions are actually less favourable here with the dawn of the little Ice Age and the Greenland settlement, which will be crucial to any hope of survival in North America, itself struggles to survive.

Good question, and to be honest I don't expect it to be very succesful, at least not for a while, but with that being said, I also think this Neo-Vinland might have a few advantages over the previous one that could potentially make it viable. For one if the initial settlement is made at the behest of the King of Norway sometime in 1261-1349, be it just to claim the land, christianize the natives or because they find the fisheries, that to me seems like a hell of an upgrade compared to the very limited incursions the Greenlandic Norse managed to make on their own. We don't actually know if L'Anse aux Meadows, the only known Norse settlement in Vinland was a permanent settlement or just a temporary camp. I'm going by wiki here but it seems to just have been used for about 20 years or so. With at minimum 200 years of advancement in ship building (I'll admit I don't know how radically things really changed in that regard) and at least some state support from Norway, I'd say it wouldn't be hard to beat their ancesters track record. Also I should note that the Greenlandic Norse didn't actually die out otl untill at least the early 15th century, so with a POD sometime in between 1261-1349, I'd imagine they'd have time to move south before the Little Ice Age makes continued settlement of Greenland untenable.

 

[Jürgen]

Honestly a new Vinland settlement between the Norwegian takeover of Iceland/Greenland and the Black Death would be pretty interesting. I could easily see it survive, but it will likely receive relative few settlers and not have a major effect on Europe. So let’s say the first settlement are established in 1300 on Newfoundland, I imagine relative few settlers, it would likely mainly export timber and cereal to Iceland and Greenland and bog iron to Greenland. I expect very few settlers, we would likely at best have around 3000 people by 1400. This may seem very low compared to some of the estimate I have made for European growth, but a Norwegian crown colony will be a very different beast than Norse settlement, it doesn’t need to be as self-sufficient and it will likely be heavy male dominated. It best to see it economically as an extension of Greenland as a fourth settlement. Trade with Vinland will likely keep the three Greenlandic settlements alive and trade with Europe going (as Greenland stay more economic important. I expect we will see some expansion of Vinland in the 15th century, there will be booming birthdates and likely extension of Norwegian trading post along the Gulf of St. Lawrence (let’s called it the Gulf of St. Lars).

 

[stephen rude]

Honestly a new Vinland settlement between the Norwegian takeover of Iceland/Greenland and the Black Death would be pretty interesting. I could easily see it survive, but it will likely receive relative few settlers and not have a major effect on Europe. So let’s say the first settlement are established in 1300 on Newfoundland, I imagine relative few settlers, it would likely mainly export timber and cereal to Iceland and Greenland and bog iron to Greenland. I expect very few settlers, we would likely at best have around 3000 people by 1400. This may seem very low compared to some of the estimate I have made for European growth, but a Norwegian crown colony will be a very different beast than Norse settlement, it doesn’t need to be as self-sufficient and it will likely be heavy male dominated. It best to see it economically as an extension of Greenland as a fourth settlement. Trade with Vinland will likely keep the three Greenlandic settlements alive and trade with Europe going (as Greenland stay more economic important. I expect we will see some expansion of Vinland in the 15th century, there will be booming birthdates and likely extension of Norwegian trading post along the Gulf of St. Lawrence (let’s called it the Gulf of St. Lars).

That seems like a very plausible trajectory to me, and I agree that the effects on Europe would be minimal. This then begs the question, when would other Europeans start showing up in the Americas? I don't expect the Norwegians to keep the second Vinland settlement a secret, they didn't with the first after all, so the news would spread slowly throughout Scandinavia and Europe. Even still, it's not like Norwegian ships will be returning from the new world full of gold and spices, so the other European powers might not be all that interested. If events in Europe vaguely develop like OTL, the English and French might be busy with their dynastic squabbles and the Iberian won't be done with the reconquista either. How much of North America can the Norwegians (and later the Danes if they end up taking over Norway on schedule) explore before other parties get interested?

 

[Arkenfolm]

Problem is there's no reason to go that far for fish when the Icelandic cod fishing, let alone cod fishing in Greenland, had barely even started by the mid-13th century, so the colony only makes economic sense from the perspective of trading with Greenland and Iceland. Which it could do very well, since Markland offers an endless stock of timber and relatively safe hunting grounds (there's some evidence that after the Inuit pushed south enough, Greenlandic walrus hunters preferred operating in Labrador instead of further north in Greenland).

But I do think it's plausible from the Iceland-Greenland perspective. Greenland was very much neglected by the Norwegians and especially Danes, but perhaps a ruler recognises this issue and decides to set up a "sister colony" in Markland. Since all of the trade would eventually flow back to Bergen, it shouldn't pose much of a political problem. It would keep Greenland more self-sufficient and enhance its ability to send desired goods to the Norwegian crown.

I disagree there would be any large disease outbreaks in the New World because of this (at most local), or that they would get further than the Gulf of St. Lawrence. There's just not enough incentive to keep going south and the natives do not have much to trade (except slaves). I think a fur trade system is plausible, which could extend to walrus hunting (this was done elsewhere in the New World). Why would a Norse farmer who just wants to raise a bunch of cattle want to waste time hunting if he can easily pay a native man to do it for him?

I suspect by 1350-1400, cod fishing will become the main economy in the North Atlantic as it did OTL. Iceland will of course be greatly changed, but TTL so will Greenland and Markland/Vinland.

That seems like a very plausible trajectory to me, and I agree that the effects on Europe would be minimal. This then begs the question, when would other Europeans start showing up in the Americas? I don't expect the Norwegians to keep the second Vinland settlement a secret, they didn't with the first after all, so the news would spread slowly throughout Scandinavia and Europe. Even still, it's not like Norwegian ships will be returning from the new world full of gold and spices, so the other European powers might not be all that interested. If events in Europe vaguely develop like OTL, the English and French might be busy with their dynastic squabbles and the Iberian won't be done with the reconquista either. How much of North America can the Norwegians (and later the Danes if they end up taking over Norway on schedule) explore before other parties get interested?

I think a substantial settlement in this region will be noticed by fishermen, which will get expeditions from interested powers--definitely England (i.e. John Cabot), maybe Portugal too, but not before the mid-15th century IMO. The Tordesillas Line will have to be totally different, or explicitly only involve Spain and Portugal, since Vinland will have its own bishop just like Greenland did. At the same time, Denmark has its own struggles with with the Hanseatic cities and keeping the Kalmar Union together, so they will send their own expeditions to reach further and further. Conveniently, the 16th century is when the European fur trade starts running into depletion and naval tech starts getting very good, so this is when the colony will explode in importance and probably begins to slowly spread across the Canadian Maritimes down into New England (maybe as far south as New York/New Jersey) and establish branches in the Hudson Bay area. There would almost certainly be many parallels to the French fur trade at this point in time.

 

[Andristan]

I would point out that we have archaeological evidence from Canada/maritime provinces of Breton and Basque visits to the Grand Banks area and trading with the locals/temp settlements from the late Middle Ages.

 

[stephen rude]

Problem is there's no reason to go that far for fish when the Icelandic cod fishing, let alone cod fishing in Greenland, had barely even started by the mid-13th century, so the colony only makes economic sense from the perspective of trading with Greenland and Iceland. Which it could do very well, since Markland offers an endless stock of timber and relatively safe hunting grounds (there's some evidence that after the Inuit pushed south enough, Greenlandic walrus hunters preferred operating in Labrador instead of further north in Greenland).

But I do think it's plausible from the Iceland-Greenland perspective. Greenland was very much neglected by the Norwegians and especially Danes, but perhaps a ruler recognises this issue and decides to set up a "sister colony" in Markland. Since all of the trade would eventually flow back to Bergen, it shouldn't pose much of a political problem. It would keep Greenland more self-sufficient and enhance its ability to send desired goods to the Norwegian crown.

I disagree there would be any large disease outbreaks in the New World because of this (at most local), or that they would get further than the Gulf of St. Lawrence. There's just not enough incentive to keep going south and the natives do not have much to trade (except slaves). I think a fur trade system is plausible, which could extend to walrus hunting (this was done elsewhere in the New World). Why would a Norse farmer who just wants to raise a bunch of cattle want to waste time hunting if he can easily pay a native man to do it for him?

I suspect by 1350-1400, cod fishing will become the main economy in the North Atlantic as it did OTL. Iceland will of course be greatly changed, but TTL so will Greenland and Markland/Vinland.

I think a substantial settlement in this region will be noticed by fishermen, which will get expeditions from interested powers--definitely England (i.e. John Cabot), maybe Portugal too, but not before the mid-15th century IMO. The Tordesillas Line will have to be totally different, or explicitly only involve Spain and Portugal, since Vinland will have its own bishop just like Greenland did. At the same time, Denmark has its own struggles with with the Hanseatic cities and keeping the Kalmar Union together, so they will send their own expeditions to reach further and further. Conveniently, the 16th century is when the European fur trade starts running into depletion and naval tech starts getting very good, so this is when the colony will explode in importance and probably begins to slowly spread across the Canadian Maritimes down into New England (maybe as far south as New York/New Jersey) and establish branches in the Hudson Bay area. There would almost certainly be many parallels to the French fur trade at this point in time.

Going with the idea of a fur trade system developing, and if we assume it'll be a long while between the initial settlements and the disease outbreaks, I'd be very interested in seeing how relations between the Vinlanders and Native peoples like the Iroquois, Mi'kmaq, Beothuk, etc evolve. If the initial settlements are mostly male, then it'd be logical for a Métis-like population to develop. I seem to remember reading that the Beothuk mostly reacted to the Europeans by retreating inland and avoiding contact, but of course that was under very different circumstances, maybe here, for better or worse they might have more contact with their new neighbours. I was reading about the Mi'kmaq as well, and the unique script they developed through contact with French jesuits. With the use of younger futhark seemingly still being in vogue among the Greenlandic Norse, maybe here, given enough contact, they could develop a swriting system based on that? It's a neat idea if nothing else

I also wonder what the spread of European domesticated animals and livestock would look like here. Presumably they'd be mostly contained to the settlements and outposts, but sooner or later I'd imagine some would wind up with the Native Americans, or becoming wild intrusive species. It'd be a long way off from the first settlements, but I gotta admit I really like the idea of Native American warbands riding into battle on Icelandic horses.

I would point out that we have archaeological evidence from Canada/maritime provinces of Breton and Basque visits to the Grand Banks area and trading with the locals/temp settlements from the late Middle Ages.

From what I know we only have evidence of a Basque presence in North America post-Columbus from the early 16th century, so while they might show up, that'd be quite a while after the POD with a lot of butterflies in between.

 

[Arkenfolm]

I was reading about the Mi'kmaq as well, and the unique script they developed through contact with French jesuits. With the use of younger futhark seemingly still being in vogue among the Greenlandic Norse, maybe here, given enough contact, they could develop a swriting system based on that? It's a neat idea if nothing else

Very possibly, and just like runes it would retain the secrecy surrounding it.

I also wonder what the spread of European domesticated animals and livestock would look like here. Presumably they'd be mostly contained to the settlements and outposts, but sooner or later I'd imagine some would wind up with the Native Americans, or becoming wild intrusive species. It'd be a long way off from the first settlements, but I gotta admit I really like the idea of Native American warbands riding into battle on Icelandic horses.

I've written about this before, but it's unlikely most, or even any, domesticated animals spread before the formation of a large mixed-race population that can serve as the interface between the cultures and transmit the valuable skills. Before then, all they are is exotic animals which will be slaughtered at feasts. Large animals were generally not slaughtered for food in Greenland and Iceland, so trading excess livestock would not be common.

 

[stephen rude]

I've written about this before, but it's unlikely most, or even any, domesticated animals spread before the formation of a large mixed-race population that can serve as the interface between the cultures and transmit the valuable skills. Before then, all they are is exotic animals which will be slaughtered at feasts. Large animals were generally not slaughtered for food in Greenland and Iceland, so trading excess livestock would not be common.

If the Beothuk are as isolationist as OTL the Mi'kmaq might then be the logical candidates as the early adopters. They're right next door so to speak, and I seem to remember they might have had a presence on Newfoundland or at least travelled there to trade with the Europeans.

I was trying to come up with a good POD that could lead to this Vinland 2.0 expedition to take place, and I think maybe the reign of Magnus VI (1263-1290) could be a pretty good timeframe. His reign was characterized by peace and good relations with his neighbours, which would make the idea of sending a few ships to explore Vinland seem like less of a distraction. Furthermore his dad was the one that brought both Iceland and Greenland under the Norwegian crown just a few years prior so maybe it could be done partly just to reafirm his comitment to his new subjects. Going with such an early POD would oviously also give any settlements and outposts longer time to get established before the black death kicks in at home and puts any idea of settlement of North America on the backburner

 

[Jürgen]

That seems like a very plausible trajectory to me, and I agree that the effects on Europe would be minimal. This then begs the question, when would other Europeans start showing up in the Americas? I don't expect the Norwegians to keep the second Vinland settlement a secret, they didn't with the first after all, so the news would spread slowly throughout Scandinavia and Europe. Even still, it's not like Norwegian ships will be returning from the new world full of gold and spices, so the other European powers might not be all that interested. If events in Europe vaguely develop like OTL, the English and French might be busy with their dynastic squabbles and the Iberian won't be done with the reconquista either. How much of North America can the Norwegians (and later the Danes if they end up taking over Norway on schedule) explore before other parties get interested?

I suspect that most countries will pretty much ignore the Norwegian presence in North America, they will vaguely know about it but mostly they won’t care. The only outside power which may care would be the Hanseatic League, but with their presence in Bergen, they will be unlikely to care enough to sail over there.

As for how much the Norwegian/Danes will explore, I expect them to explore Labrador, the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the northern coast of New England and maybe the St. Lawrence River. I expect those expeditions to happen in the late 15th century and before that, there will simply be ad hoc local exploration by the local Norwegian settlers.

 

[Jürgen]

Problem is there's no reason to go that far for fish when the Icelandic cod fishing, let alone cod fishing in Greenland, had barely even started by the mid-13th century, so the colony only makes economic sense from the perspective of trading with Greenland and Iceland. Which it could do very well, since Markland offers an endless stock of timber and relatively safe hunting grounds (there's some evidence that after the Inuit pushed south enough, Greenlandic walrus hunters preferred operating in Labrador instead of further north in Greenland).

But I do think it's plausible from the Iceland-Greenland perspective. Greenland was very much neglected by the Norwegians and especially Danes, but perhaps a ruler recognises this issue and decides to set up a "sister colony" in Markland. Since all of the trade would eventually flow back to Bergen, it shouldn't pose much of a political problem. It would keep Greenland more self-sufficient and enhance its ability to send desired goods to the Norwegian crown.

Yes, very good point, through as the Norwegian down set it up, I expect it to use Norwegian settlers.

I disagree there would be any large disease outbreaks in the New World because of this (at most local), or that they would get further than the Gulf of St. Lawrence. There's just not enough incentive to keep going south and the natives do not have much to trade (except slaves). I think a fur trade system is plausible, which could extend to walrus hunting (this was done elsewhere in the New World). Why would a Norse farmer who just wants to raise a bunch of cattle want to waste time hunting if he can easily pay a native man to do it for him?

Yes, I expect the Norwegian settlers being split in two group, farmers/fishermen/lumberjacks who stay on Newfoundland and sell their goods to Greenland and Iceland and traders who trades with the natives on the mainland In the summer and return to Newfoundland in the winter.

I suspect by 1350-1400, cod fishing will become the main economy in the North Atlantic as it did OTL. Iceland will of course be greatly changed, but TTL so will Greenland and Markland/Vinland.

I think a substantial settlement in this region will be noticed by fishermen, which will get expeditions from interested powers--definitely England (i.e. John Cabot), maybe Portugal too, but not before the mid-15th century IMO. The Tordesillas Line will have to be totally different, or explicitly only involve Spain and Portugal, since Vinland will have its own bishop just like Greenland did. At the same time, Denmark has its own struggles with with the Hanseatic cities and keeping the Kalmar Union together, so they will send their own expeditions to reach further and further. Conveniently, the 16th century is when the European fur trade starts running into depletion and naval tech starts getting very good, so this is when the colony will explode in importance and probably begins to slowly spread across the Canadian Maritimes down into New England (maybe as far south as New York/New Jersey) and establish branches in the Hudson Bay area. There would almost certainly be many parallels to the French fur trade at this point in time.

I could see it, it will also give them an edge on any other colonizers in North America. I also think the real long range expeditions will begin after they see the Spanish success.

 

[Jürgen]

A interesting aspect is when the first smallpox epidemic hit Vinland. If it happen early it may kill the new colony without having any major harm on the settlers. But let’s say it happen around 1450, Vinland have a population of around 20.000 Norwegians, smallpox kills around 1/3 of their population leaving 13.000 behind. But among the native group with contact with the Norwegians, it pretty much decimates their population. The Beothuk likely goes extinct, the few survivors are likely assimilated by the Norwegians. The Mi’kmaq do slightly better thanks to greater intermarriage with Norwegian traders, but the surviving population will have significant European admixture [1].

[1] It’s believed that the reason why Mexicans are on average almost half European even through there was very few Spanish settlers in Mexico are because people with European admixture survived epidemics better, so every epidemic made the Mexican population slightly more European.

 

[Kerney]

Whats stopping this Neo-Vinland from meeting the same fate as the old one? Particularly as, as already pointed out, conditions are actually less favourable here with the dawn of the little Ice Age and the Greenland settlement, which will be crucial to any hope of survival in North America, itself struggles to survive.

I could see one answer being, in addition to a Norwegian/Icelandic initial settlement, an accelerated collapse of Greenland, as settlers move south, and perhaps an evacuation at some point to Vinland from Greenland.

Having instead of a couple hundred in 1010, you might have 500 Norwegians reinforced by 2000 Ex Greenlanders circa 1300 (say of 4000, some get lost in storms go to Iceland) would change things.

 

[Arkenfolm]

If the Beothuk are as isolationist as OTL the Mi'kmaq might then be the logical candidates as the early adopters. They're right next door so to speak, and I seem to remember they might have had a presence on Newfoundland or at least travelled there to trade with the Europeans.

The Mikmaq were not farmers at that point so I doubt they'd be the first group the Norse would trade with, which means a Metis population would emerge much more slowly, so a transition to herding livestock is unlikely.

Yes, I expect the Norwegian settlers being split in two group, farmers/fishermen/lumberjacks who stay on Newfoundland and sell their goods to Greenland and Iceland and traders who trades with the natives on the mainland In the summer and return to Newfoundland in the winter.

I wouldn't say just Newfoundland. From a logistical perspective, Labrador is closer to Greenland and Iceland and all but the northern 1/3 of the coast has a climate comparable to the two Greenland settlements (provided you are within a sheltered fjords). The southern area is climatically even better than Greenland. Still not good enough for farming grain, but given it was difficult to grow grain in Iceland in the Little Ice Age, Newfoundland would have many problems as well. Even so, it's perfect for raising livestock and cutting timber.

 

[stephen rude]

The Mikmaq were not farmers at that point so I doubt they'd be the first group the Norse would trade with, which means a Metis population would emerge much more slowly, so a transition to herding livestock is unlikely.

I wouldn't say just Newfoundland. From a logistical perspective, Labrador is closer to Greenland and Iceland and all but the northern 1/3 of the coast has a climate comparable to the two Greenland settlements (provided you are within a sheltered fjords). The southern area is climatically even better than Greenland. Still not good enough for farming grain, but given it was difficult to grow grain in Iceland in the Little Ice Age, Newfoundland would have many problems as well. Even so, it's perfect for raising livestock and cutting timber.

Is there another group then that you think would make a better candidate as the early adopters of livestock? What about the spread of metallurgy and bog iron? If we're going with a POD around the reign of king Magnus VI, would that provide enough time for a Metis population to develop and for these ideas to spread, before we start seeing massive amounts of settlers coming in from Norway and elsewhere in Europe?

 

[raharris1973]

You mention Hansa being aware of what the Norwegians are doing. Are we sure no involvement by Scots, Irish, Englishmen, Frisians, or Fleming?

 

[Andristan]

They discovered iron artifacts (think tools-axeheads, knifeblades) inside native settlements in the maritime provinces, dating to the 1400s or so, mostly from Basque regions. Breton fishermen from Brest have been visiting the Grand Banks since the 1400s as well. I could definitely see these two groups trading with a stranded colony of beleaguered Norwegians.

 

[raharris1973]

They discovered iron artifacts (think tools-axeheads, knifeblades) inside native settlements in the maritime provinces, dating to the 1400s or so, mostly from Basque regions. Breton fishermen from Brest have been visiting the Grand Banks since the 1400s as well. I could definitely see these two groups trading with a stranded colony of beleaguered Norwegians.

How do we know those weren't old tools, carried over later? And source?