Well....
We've had two rounds of the Spanish Civil War, the left winning the first round, the fascists squeaking the second only by virtue of Italy bleeding itself white in the process.
Germany was greedy and demanded all of Czechoslovakia instead of just the Sudetenland-France and Britain told Hitler to shove it, and the war kicked off in early '39. The Czechs bled the Germans, who then rolled over the Poles, who made an insane last stand near Lublin before going down. The Germans then rolled west, where we held them at the frontier-and indeed, managed to seize parts of the Rhineland while the Germans were tied down.
It's mid-42 and the Germans literally JUST took Paris-that said, we're (I'm Lord Halifax on the British team) still fighting in the Ardennes and Belgium, and just today managed to cut off their resupply lines back to Germany. Wednesday's class should be interesting.
Molotov-Ribbontrop never happened, and never will-Uncle Joe's sitting watching the war in the west, and with Italy not getting involved-Mussolini's a crafty guy in this class, and Ciano even more so-there's enough unengaged strength in Europe that'd fight the Communists they're going to be wary about marching east.
Pearl Harbor hasn't happened, and in fact the war between the Chinese and Japanese has winded down. The Nationalists just re-opened the war with the Communists after the two cooperated enough to force a cease-fire on the Japanese. As a result, Roosevelt, with no disaster on his hands in the form of a fascists-on-the-rise scenario...lost the 1940 election to Taft. The Americans are slowly getting riled up about Hitler, though, so even if France goes down I feel good about our eventual chances. Especially seeing how you have to play the part of your character, which means Hitler is going to want to go east, if he really wants to or not.