Philip of Macedon Dies

[Tate the Brewer]

I am interested in killing Philip of Macedon, but more importantly, butterflying away any Macedonian Empire.


The three possible times to do this that I've found would be...


A. In 355-54, during his siege of Methone. This is apparently when he lost an eye. What if he died of the resulting infection before the siege was over?


B. In 345, during his campaign against the Aridaioi, at which time he was seriously wounded in the leg.


C. Between 342 and 339, during his war with the Scythians. Historians record his battle with the Scythian king Ateas as a close call. Ateas is reported to have been 90 years old at the time. What if the Scythians had won, and Philip was killed?


Each of these PoDs obviously have different ramifications to be considered as they occur at different points in Macedon's expansion. What do you guys think would happen with each one?

 

[SlyDessertFox]

355-354: This is catastrophic for Makedon. There is only one viable heir for Philip here, and that is the son of Perdikkas III, Amyntas, who IIRC, is still only a child at this time. There is no reason to expect Makedon won't implode like it had in every other succession crisis in the past century. Philip's administrative reforms (which were far, far, far more important than his military reforms at this point, since it's what gave him tight control over the independently minded Upper Makedon, and what enabled him to have a treasury large enough to support his new model army), were not really in place yet. The Athenians and Thracians will likely find some pretender to back and Makedon will go through another brutal series of civil wars, and I'm not sure if it can recover here.

345: I'm not sure Makedon will implode, but again, with no adult heir Makedon's flirting with another major succession crisis. Amyntas is probably an adult at this time, but unless he's a strong willed and capable leader like Alexander, he's likely not going to be able to survive any succession struggle which will certainly arise. Look for Philip's conquests to be rolled back.

342-339: Same problem as above. Amyntas might have more chance of success here, but again, look for Philip's conquests to be rolled back. This is a crucial period here-it's right before Chaeronea and it's also right around the time that all of Greece was getting seriously concerned with Philip's growth in power. Chaeronea was an extremely close run thing OTL and Philip's victory was due to his strategic and tactical brilliance (and uncanny ability to avoid battle until absolutely necessary). The clashes Antipater had with the Greeks later on while Alexander was on campaign, which were basically an old fashioned hoplite slog causing serious casualties is probably what you would get here with someone less tactically brilliant than Alexander or Philip at the helm. And if that's the case, the Greeks will win at TTL's equivalent of Chaeronea (if Makedon doesn't fall apart due to internal divisions first), which spells the death of Makedon's attempt at dominating Greece (but not of Makedon itself obviously).

 

[Tate the Brewer]

I've been reading a lot about the political situation when Philip took the throne as regent for his nephew, and another date for his death came to mind - the Battle of Erigon Valley. What if the Dardanians had won? Obviously, Macedon would definitely have imploded as it was already extremely volatile, but what does the future of Greek politics look like then, and the politics of the region in general? The Dardanians would probably pose a very large threat to all things Greek at such a point in time, especially if they could conquer Macedon themselves. Could the Dardanians develop into a more centralized state in such an instance? Or, alternatively, how might the Greeks go about mounting a defense against them as they did several years earlier when the Spartans fought them to liberate Molossia?


What are the wider consequences to be considered of Macedon's total implosion? Cuz myself, I don't see any kind of an invasion of the Persian Empire being very likely unless some other city-state is able to spearhead the idea - trouble is, none of them were centralized, absolute monarchies the way Macedon was. This may give other Balkan peoples like the Thracians and the Illyrians a chance to step into the spotlight, I think, at least until the Celts come in.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

The main beneficiary are the tyrants of Pherai. Even after the assassination of Jason and Alexander they tried repeatedly to dominate Thessaly but were stopped by Philip at every attempt. Thessaly could be powerful if united and we might (I say might because by every indication Philip probably should have been stopped by the Thebans and Athenians), see a similar situation to Philip's hegemony become a possibility.

 

[Falecius]

The main beneficiary are the tyrants of Pherai. Even after the assassination of Jason and Alexander they tried repeatedly to dominate Thessaly but were stopped by Philip at every attempt. Thessaly could be powerful if united and we might (I say might because by every indication Philip probably should have been stopped by the Thebans and Athenians), see a similar situation to Philip's hegemony become a possibility.

Thessaly as an emerging power in a non-Hellenistic post-classical Greece would make an interesting scenario.
It seems to me (but maybe it's just source bias) that Greek geopolitics were growing increasingly polycentric and chaotic at that point. A consistent trend, however, appears to be conglomeration of individual poleis into larger regional/tribal entities. Of course, Persia would still dominate the field from afar.

 

[Tate the Brewer]

The main beneficiary are the tyrants of Pherai. Even after the assassination of Jason and Alexander they tried repeatedly to dominate Thessaly but were stopped by Philip at every attempt. Thessaly could be powerful if united and we might (I say might because by every indication Philip probably should have been stopped by the Thebans and Athenians), see a similar situation to Philip's hegemony become a possibility.

I could see that. So, probably some sort of a showdown between the Dardanians and the Thessalians after Philip's defeat?

 

[SlyDessertFox]

This also directly benefits the Odrysians if one of Kotys' successors could unite the kingdom again they might be in an advantageous position to capitalize on the turmoil as well.

 

[Tate the Brewer]

Where would Persia be in all of this? I haven't read much about their political situation at the time. Though I will be shortly, since work is fucking DEAD today...

 

[SlyDessertFox]

Where would Persia be in all of this? I haven't read much about their political situation at the time. Though I will be shortly, since work is fucking DEAD today...

The satraps revolt recently ended, and Egypt is still at large. Assuming Egypt still falls, there's going to be another succession crisis with the death of Artaxerxes III Ochus once he dies if Bagoas has anything to say about that. I wouldn't be surprised to see another Egyptian revolt, or to see the ionian cities slowly return back into Greek orbit.