Pedro V of Portugal lives longer
- Thread starter abc123
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The French invasions and Civil War (1828-1834) coupled with the nationalization of church lands were a disaster for the country. When the religious orders were secularized in 1834, their lands were confiscated and auctioned off, flooding the market and causing a collapse in land values.
Another issue was the brain drain to Brazil. People forget that throughout the first half of 19th century many of the people who emigrated to Brazil were actually literate individuals, who could afford the passage to Brazil, this is similar to English and Scottish emigration to the US during the same period. However with a literacy rate of under 25%, Portugal's brain drain was more severe.
Portugal's two periods of economic success seem to have been under the Marquis of Pombal and the end of the New State (1960-1974). In both the government developed a sort of corporatist role. Pombal implemented policies to stimulate industries in the Lisbon area. To protect nascent industries, he placed protectionist tariffs. One has to remember that Great Britain too practised protectionism during its early industrial phase (18th century).
So to better Portugal's economy several steps would have been needed.
1. Spend more on education rather than on infrastructure projects, especially primary education as a way to invest in Portugal's "human capital". Finland for instance had very low illiteracy by 1900, and it too was a peripheral nation. This would have been a "long term" investment.
2. Improve the efficacy of the justice system in the country and root out corruption. This would make the state far more efficient along with the economy. This would have stimulated foreign investment in the country.
3. Have the state intervene in establishment and protection of nascent export-oriented industries. This would not be too different from what the Tiger economies of East Asia. The United States too had very high tariffs on imported goods to protect its textile industry. This could have been done in the 19th century to allow for the growth of canned tuna and sardines, canned fruits and vegetables. In addition textiles and leather footwear could have been produced much earlier in the northern regions of the country.
abc123
Banned
Also, do you think that early start of expeditions in Kongo/Katanga area could lead to recognition of at least Katanga as Portuguese posession ( part of Angola ) in Berlin 1884?
Will marriage of Pedro V with British princess help there?
Taking the Katanga region along with the Copperbelt in what would become Northern Rhodesia would prove beneficial inasmuch as it would provide foreign revenue for the Portuguese State/Crown. However, Portugal would simply be exploiting a natural resource that would tie their economy to a boom and bust cycle. This is very typical of countries in Latin America and Africa, especially those countries which are overwhelmingly dependent on the export earnings of a single commodity.
Copper began being mined in commercial quantities just before WWI in Katanga and in the late 1920s in the Copper Belt. Historically, copper enjoyed a run up in prices between 1927-1929 (boom) followed by a huge bust and low prices during the depression and 1940s until 1946 when they started going up with a peak in 1957 followed by a crash due to the 1958 recession. This was followed by a recovery in 1959 and stable prices until 1969 with another peak in 1971 before a crash in 1974, a brief recovery in 1975 and another crash especially bad after 1980 with low copper prices until the 2004 commodities boom that is currently crashing.
abc123
Banned
Indeed. But, on the other hand, it could make significant source of revenue to be used for modernisation of Portugal...
abc123
Banned
OK, if we presume that Pedro V lives, let's say all the way to 1890s, what could he do for development of Portugal?
I mean, position of King was important, but not omnipotent. He could appoint better Council of Ministers? He could insist of fair elections? He could appoint better senators?
Could he order Governor of Angola to start expeditions in hinterland to claim Congo basis/Katanga area before Berlin Congress?
What about development of industries in Portugal? What could he do there?
I mean, position of King was important, but not omnipotent. He could appoint better Council of Ministers? He could insist of fair elections? He could appoint better senators?
Could he order Governor of Angola to start expeditions in hinterland to claim Congo basis/Katanga area before Berlin Congress?
What about development of industries in Portugal? What could he do there?
A smart king could have easily assumed more powers had he been more Machiavellian. The senate only existed between 1838-1842, before and after that Portugal had a Camara de Pares or House of Peers (Lords) as its upper house.
The government could have financed more expeditions into the interior, and there were quite a few. However, what was really needed was "effective occupation". Meaning treaties with tribal leaders (usually involving bribes) to come under the protection of the King of Portugal. This would need to be followed up with "postos militares" or military posts with small garrisons of Portuguese soldiers etc.
The easiest industries to start would have been light industries such as canneries for sardines in the Algarve, fruits and vegetables (as these became popular in the 19th century). Textiles, especially cotton and wool textiles required little formal education for workers and could have easily been established in Northern Portugal.
Can't really answer to the sardines part, apart from the conditions of Algarve compared to places more to the North of the country (where I happen to live).
That being said, the rivers to the north tend to have narrower beds (is that the term?) and stronger currents, so it could be a probably option to power stuff. I'd need to check some stuff to know exactly when the Ave valley started to develop as a zone of Textile industries.
That being said, the rivers to the north tend to have narrower beds (is that the term?) and stronger currents, so it could be a probably option to power stuff. I'd need to check some stuff to know exactly when the Ave valley started to develop as a zone of Textile industries.