PC: East Prussia as Taiwan?

[Revolutionary Avocado]

Here's an interesting idea. Say the Spartacist uprising in Germany in 1919 succeeds, maybe with a dual PoD. The first PoD being that the SPD decides to support the revolution wholeheartedly, planning to act as a moderating influence post-conflict. The second PoD being increased radicalization of German soldiers in the trenches during the war, leading to a weakening of the Freikorps and the defecting of some "National Socialist" Freikorps to the Revolutionary side. In this scenario, the leadership of the German state manages to flee to East Prussia, where under Ludendorff they establish the Imperial State of Germany, with a "government-in-exile" at Konigsburg.

Is this plausible? If so, what would the social and economic situation of East Prussia look like? How would their relations with their neighbours be? How would the Western powers treat them?

 

[Beedok]

Are the Russians red, white or royal?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Poland takes East Prussia, then red Russia and red Germany attacks Poland.

 

[Monty Burns]

Poland takes East Prussia, then red Russia and red Germany attacks Poland.

That's it I guess.

Now any TL where Prussian Junkers alongside Western interventionist forces and the Polish national army fight Germany is interesting per se...

 

[Revolutionary Avocado]

Are the Russians red, white or royal?

Could be any of the three. In the TL that's been bouncing around my head for a while, they end up White, but the Russian Civil War goes for a very long time, and ends up with a Don Cossack state that is loosely incorporated into a warlord-ruled unstable federal Ukraine, a large, independent Communist Transcaucasus under Stalin and Beria, an anarchic Turkestan, and de-facto Japanese annexation of the Transamur region and other parts of the Far East.

That's it I guess.

Now any TL where Prussian Junkers alongside Western interventionist forces and the Polish national army fight Germany is interesting per se...

Exactly

 

[MSZ]

Poland takes East Prussia, then red Russia and red Germany attacks Poland.

Too simplified. Poland could certainly use the opportunity to grab Danzig, Upper Silesia and parts of East Prussia, but all of it? Too much trouble, nobody in Poland at the time even contemplated it. I'm more inclined to see Poland allying with the German Government in Konisgsberg in a joint intervention alongside France in Germany, in return for future Germany accepting losses to Poland.

Another factor is the huge amount of Ober-Ost soldiers in Poland, Ukraine and Baltic States - what would they do? Support the revolution where they stand? Be transported to Red Germany? Be transported to East Prussia and join the government in exile? The last is most likely in my opinion, with the government there being promised that action against the reds will be taken in return to it agreeing to more concessions post-war, using the time to prepare for an intervention - kind of like OTL Whites in Manchuria.

And Red Germany invading Poland is borderline ASB, the reds having to know doing that would lead to a French invasion. German communists would do anything to prevent a foreign intervention, much like the Russian ones, besides, a German Red Army being bled out fighting whatever "German Whites" would be in position to stand up to even the Poles by themselves.

 

[seraphim74]

Poland wouldn't attack East Prussia so quickly. From Polish POV a conflict between two German states is a good thing, not to mention Poles have no reason to like Red Germany. So as long as East Prussia sits quietly, Poles let it be.
Red Germany can indeed hit Poles in the back when they fight Red Russia, but it would have meant Entente intervention. France and Britain are exhausted, but they can still beat Germany. Honestly, I think that the very success of German revolution might trigger Entente intervention.
But let's assume a scenario like this: German civil war takes a little longer. Nor France, nor Britain are willing to interfere, as long as Germans are killing each other. Besides, with SPD the Reds they might be seen as not so bad. Poles defeat Red Russia as IOTL, since Germans are too busy to interfere. Eventually, in 1920 or 1921, White (Black?) German forces are defeated and withdraw to East Prussia - mostly be sea, with Poles magnanimously granting the rest passage across the Corridor (unarmed and under guard). Why? Because, as I mentioned before, weakened Germany is in Polish interests.
Now, we have an interesting situation. A socialist Germany (not communist - I still think it would have triggered an intervention); and a reactionary Germany in East Prussia. Between them - the Polish Corridor.
What is economical situation in East Prussia? Not good. IIRC East Prussia was mostly a rural area, with agriculture being a basis of its economy. The Prussians have no natural resources and only little industry.
Politically, they are also in poor position. Very few people in Europe has any sympathy to successors of the government which started (in their opinion) the Great War. Some western goverments or right wing movements might see thenm as anti-Reds, but they are simply too weak to be treated really seriously. The facts are simple - the main Germany is red, and if you want to do any business or make any political arrangements with Germany, you have to talk to the Reds.
Militarily, Prussians are also weak. In the beginning they might have relatively strong army, but without industry they can not mantain it. Their ability to produce new equipment, ammo etc. is minimal. They also lack soldiers. Before you say they can expand to Poland or Lithuania - no, they can not. The moment they try to do that, Poles will fight them with everything they have. And they will have superior numbers and will to fight an attrition war which Prussia can not win. Should Prussia invade Lithuania, Poles will immediately intervene to protect their "Lithuanian brothers", whether those brothers wish it or not. Why? Because strong Prussia is not in Polish interest. And an intervention or "liberation" of Lithuania might give Poland an opportunity to install pro-Polish government in Kaunas.
In short, East Prussia will be weak and disrespected. To survive and gain any strength they would need a protector - just like Taiwan had USA. Problem is I do not see any country willing to be such a protector. Soviet Russia? No way - they will be more friendly to Red Germany. Britain? I do not think so. Prussians simply can not give Britain anything in return. France? NO WAY IN HELL. Poland? Poland is too weak to be a significant protector and has no warm feeling towards Prussia at all.
IMO the Prussia soon will become a kind of reservation for reactionary Germans. Surviving only because Poles refuse to allow Red Germans to pass across the Corridor to finish the job. To be honest, Poles would be very gleeful about reactionary Prussians being more or less on Polish mercy.
A civil war in Germany (especially a longer one) might also cause some border changes. With Red Germans and Black Germans fighting each other relatively more peaceful Poland might seem to Silesians and Masurians more attractive, especially after 1920. Poles might actually win some plebiscites (if they happen at all - it is hard to make a plebiscite in a country torn by a civil war) and gain more territory in Upper Silesia. With East Prussia being sepparated from civil war I think plebiscite there would end as IOTL. Danzig Germans decide they are quite happy being a Free City- Danzig businessmen might not be happy with becoming a part of Red Germany, and being part of poor and reactionary Prussia is also not so tempting.