Paul of Russia dead in 1762, what happens?

[January First-of-May]

Okay. As a lot of people here know, Peter III of Russia, when he came to the throne after Elizabeth's death in 1762, was highly unpopular for his pro-Prussian policies; as always happened with unpopular rulers, there were many plots against him, one of which ultimately succeeded several months later.
IOTL, after his death the throne went to his wife Catherine II, and eventually to their son Paul, from whom all further Romanov rulers were descended.

POD: one of the plots against Peter in 1762 succeeds in killing Paul (either deliberately or accidentally), so he is dead by the time his father is killed, and isn't available as the potential successor further on.
I assume Catherine still inherits as OTL; question is, who is the heir/crown prince/first in line? Genealogy really seems to say that it would be either (still imprisoned) Ivan VI, one of his (also imprisoned) younger siblings, or, if that's entirely not an option, this guy; neither possibility is likely to be anywhere near popular (though Catherine might well like the last one).

 

[Mixxer5]

To be honest, I don't really know if Catherine would inherit the throne. She was barely a wife of would be ruler.

Pauls death brings interesting changes in war as well- historically it were his actions that allowed Prussia to survive, originally Russian plans were to take Prussia from... Prussia and give it to their vassal- PLC in exchange for Courland. That virtually removes Prussia as a threat to Austria, strengthening PLC.

 

[Space Oddity]

To be honest, I don't really know if Catherine would inherit the throne. She was barely a wife of would be ruler.

Pauls death brings interesting changes in war as well- historically it were his actions that allowed Prussia to survive, originally Russian plans were to take Prussia from... Prussia and give it to their vassal- PLC in exchange for Courland. That virtually removes Prussia as a threat to Austria, strengthening PLC.

Your mixing up your Tsars. Peter is Catherine's husband, and the Prussian fancier. Paul is their son. (Well, her son, at least.)

 

[Lord Grattan]

Okay. As a lot of people here know, Peter III of Russia, when he came to the throne after Elizabeth's death in 1762, was highly unpopular for his pro-Prussian policies; as always happened with unpopular rulers, there were many plots against him, one of which ultimately succeeded several months later.
IOTL, after his death the throne went to his wife Catherine II, and eventually to their son Paul, from whom all further Romanov rulers were descended.

POD: one of the plots against Peter in 1762 succeeds in killing Paul (either deliberately or accidentally), so he is dead by the time his father is killed, and isn't available as the potential successor further on.
I assume Catherine still inherits as OTL; question is, who is the heir/crown prince/first in line? Genealogy really seems to say that it would be either (still imprisoned) Ivan VI, one of his (also imprisoned) younger siblings, or, if that's entirely not an option, this guy; neither possibility is likely to be anywhere near popular (though Catherine might well like the last one).

Sadly, the 22 year old ex-Tsar Ivan VI has been withering away in solitary confinement for 12+ years. Also sadly, Prince Fredrick Augustus is (more than likely) impotent.

 

[January First-of-May]

Sadly, the 22 year old ex-Tsar Ivan VI has been withering away in solitary confinement for 12+ years. Also sadly, Prince Fredrick Augustus is (more than likely) impotent.

That was kind of my point on the former, and I wasn't aware of the latter but it makes the whole situation even worse

 

[Gonzaga]

To be honest, I don't really know if Catherine would inherit the throne. She was barely a wife of would be ruler.

Exactly. One thing would be if Paul had died when his mother was already in the throne (I doubt anyone would have the political force to depose her). But here her position would be much more delicate.

 

[January First-of-May]

Exactly. One thing would be if Paul had died when his mother was already in the throne (I doubt anyone would have the political force to depose her). But here her position would be much more delicate.

Well, I hadn't considered that possibility: that Paul is "just" wounded or somesuch, and only dies after Catherine is on the throne already.
Still, continuing the original version... if not Catherine, then who? They either need to crown Ivan VI back again (would be hilarious if they manage to do it without actually getting him out of prison - but still I can't exactly see that scenario) or... look at more distant relations: Feodor Romanov, the father of the first Romanov tsar, had a brother named Ivan; Ivan's daughter Marfa married Alexei Vorotynsky, and descendants from that marriage were apparently still around in the late 18th century. That said, it's not the sort of claim that would be preferred over Catherine; maybe over Ivan VI and his siblings, but even then it might well be easier to just find and crown an entirely new dynasty altogether

 

[Mixxer5]

Your mixing up your Tsars. Peter is Catherine's husband, and the Prussian fancier. Paul is their son. (Well, her son, at least.)

Ah, right. Sorry.

 

[TheImagineer]

That said, it's not the sort of claim that would be preferred over Catherine; maybe over Ivan VI and his siblings, but even then it might well be easier to just find and crown an entirely new dynasty altogether

Ooh, interesting! Who might be chosen to found a new dynasty in place of the Romanovs?

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Ooh, interesting! Who might be chosen to found a new dynasty in place of the Romanovs?

Under the Petrine succession laws. Catherine if she is Tsarina, can nominate exactly who her successor will be. The idea being that the person she considers best suited to follow her will become Tsar or Tsarina. Mind you I think it was meant to be the best of the blood relations, but it doesn't mean it could not be say an illegitimate from a previous liason or a distant relation of the current sitting Tsar that might be groomed as her new successor.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

What about Catherine II's illigitimate son, Aleksey Grigorievich Bobrinsky? Is there any way she could claim he was legitimate? Like say get Peter III drunk, sleep with him, and claim the baby is his? That way the Romanov line would "officially" continue? Or she could marry one of Ivan's brothers, and try to produce another heir. Not likely but possible.

 

[Kaiphranos]

So what are the arguments for not bringing Ivan VI back? (Aside from doubts about his mental stability, and possible difficulty in avoiding the whole "killed while attempting to escape" thing?)

 

[Emperor Constantine]

So what are the arguments for not bringing Ivan VI back? (Aside from doubts about his mental stability, and possible difficulty in avoiding the whole "killed while attempting to escape" thing?)

You pretty much summed it up. Best case scenario Ivan was a nitwit. He had no formal education, the only thing we know he was taught was to read the bible, and probably had at best the mind of a five year old. So either way he's not gonna be in any position to govern Russia. Worst case he's completely crazy. He had a lifetime of isolation so he could easily be mentally unstable. So I doubt he should be anyone's first pick for a Monarch.

 

[miguelrj]

You pretty much summed it up. Best case scenario Ivan was a nitwit. He had no formal education, the only thing we know he was taught was to read the bible, and probably had at best the mind of a five year old. So either way he's not gonna be in any position to govern Russia. Worst case he's completely crazy. He had a lifetime of isolation so he could easily be mentally unstable. So I doubt he should be anyone's first pick for a Monarch.

But a good excuse to set up a regency, no?

 

[Aley]

Strictly speaking, the coup was carried out exactly in favor of Paul, but Catherine was able to ride the movement and seize power.
The killing of Paul (which as far as I can remember and it was not in St. Petersburg) is unrealistic.

As for Peter III, he was a friend of Frederick the Great, but did not hold pro-Prussian policy. He simply refused to fight for the interests of France and Austria, what for?

 

[January First-of-May]

Strictly speaking, the coup was carried out exactly in favor of Paul, but Catherine was able to ride the movement and seize power.
The killing of Paul (which as far as I can remember and it was not in St. Petersburg) is unrealistic.

As for Peter III, he was a friend of Frederick the Great, but did not hold pro-Prussian policy. He simply refused to fight for the interests of France and Austria, what for?

I didn't know that sort of details (though I suppose there could be any reason that Paul happens to die in 1762).
That said, I did kind of misremember a little: the original thread I was inspired by had Peter and Paul die when someone is disgusted by the parade Peter did in November 1760 over a Russian defeat (that was, of course, a victory for Prussia). That makes the situation even more interesting, actually, because then we have Elizabeth scrambling to find a heir because she's obviously nearing the end of her life (possibilities suggested in the forum included Peter's widow Catherine [i.e. OTL Catherine II], Ivan VI and his siblings, and Elizabeth's own illegitimate issue).

 

[Aley]

I didn't know that sort of details (though I suppose there could be any reason that Paul happens to die in 1762).
That said, I did kind of misremember a little: the original thread I was inspired by had Peter and Paul die when someone is disgusted by the parade Peter did in November 1760 over a Russian defeat (that was, of course, a victory for Prussia). That makes the situation even more interesting, actually, because then we have Elizabeth scrambling to find a heir because she's obviously nearing the end of her life (possibilities suggested in the forum included Peter's widow Catherine [i.e. OTL Catherine II], Ivan VI and his siblings, and Elizabeth's own illegitimate issue).

Do you mean that Peter III of Prussia gave Russian war plans? It is a myth, in his letters to Frederick this is not a word. But Catherine worked for British intelligence, which gently passed her reports Frederick.
Elizabeth is not very fond of Catherine, considering it dangerous for Russia.
As for the heir to the throne, then there is a very confusing issue. Peter III was the only viable candidate for Elizabeth, though he was preparing for the ascent to the Swedish throne and brought up by the Swedes (hence his ostentatious dislike of Russia). He was actually abducted by Elizabeth and taken to St. Petersburg. Ivan 6th been incapacitated since spent his entire life in prison, with early infancy.
We can assume that in the event of the death of Peter and Paul, the situation would repeat itself with the choice of the throne of Anna Ivanovna - would solve all the oligarchic elite....