Paul I of Russia dies in 1771

[January First-of-May]

Inspired by my previous bunch of threads about similar PODs (themselves inspired by a bunch of FAI stuff).

Apparently, IOTL, the then-future Paul I got very ill in 1771, and even though he recovered he had significant health problems ever since.
POD: he doesn't recover, and dies. Bam, no heir.

The problem is, in this context, no heir means no heir. Almost literally. As far as I can tell, while there is a bunch of theoretically possible heirs, all of them are either imprisoned (relatively secretly at that), so distantly related that only genealogists would know, only related from the German side (i.e. blood relatives of Catherine), morganatic/bastard children, or just random claimants (like Pugachev).
Note that IOTL Catherine II didn't die until 1796 (and is only 42 years old in 1771), so theoretically there's plenty of time for her to marry someone, get a child and declare them heir (if she would want so). But of course even Catherine II herself is a bit illegitimate as a "Romanov" ruler; the resulting "heir" would only have the vaguest connection to the Romanov dynasty, and even in the absence of other possibilities that might not be popular (I suspect many might well prefer choosing a new dynasty, 1613 style, over crowning someone so unconnected to the old one).

Recap: then-future Paul I of Russia dies in 1771, now there's no heir and no obvious way to get one.
What happens?

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Russia might have to get a new ruling dynasty since the last Romanov heir has died. What about one of Catherine's lovers?

 

[The Professor]

Aren't the Antonovichs (Ivan VI's brothers and sisters) still imprisoned in Russia at this time?
Perhaps one of those gets released?

 

[Gonzaga]

Sometime ago I started a thread about this POD, and there were some interesting ideas that might contribute to the discussion: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=185313

 

[Old Airman]

Catherine might, out of sheer necessity, have a change of heart toward "Miloskavski" cadet branch (brothers of Ivan the VI). There're two living males in the family at this point - Peter and Alexei, and they're the closest thing available to Romanovs main blood line. Catherine might choose to adopt one of them.

 

[Will Kürlich Kerl]

Some interesting stuff from Gonzaga thread:

Just for fun, I tried to find the actual closest relatives of Catherine (and, for that matter, Peter) upon her death ITTL (assuming no other butterflies, and not counting the above-mentioned prisoners).
Peter's closest relative (as far as I can tell) seems to have been the (then-current) King of Sweden (duh), while Catherine's... the very same King of Sweden, with actually an even closer relation (both descended from her maternal grandfather, Prince of Eutin).
The Swedish king is certainly going to know that, though probably not act on it. As for the next closest (Catherine's) relative, after the large Swedish branch, that is her second cousin once removed, Ernest II of Saxe-Gotha-Altenburg; in this branch, George III of England (or whatever it was at that point) is actually quite high in line.

End result.

 

[JonasResende]

Catherine might, out of sheer necessity, have a change of heart toward "Miloskavski" cadet branch (brothers of Ivan the VI). There're two living males in the family at this point - Peter and Alexei, and they're the closest thing available to Romanovs main blood line. Catherine might choose to adopt one of them.

Catherine might choose - out of necessity - to marry one (since she was tolerated as long as she was seen as Regent until Paul came of age, many felt she had overstepped her mark when that date came and went) to shore up her position. He would hardly have a role as ruler - Catherine, Potemkin and her lover of the day would still rule - but he would perhaps do what Umberto I of Italy said: "To be a king, all you need to be able to do is to sit a horse, sign your name, and read a newspaper". And Europe has several "weak" rulers at that point governed by favorites/mistresses/wives - Louis XV, Christian VI, & Willem V - for it to be acceptable.

 

[zert]

Some interesting stuff from Gonzaga thread:

A Union between England and Russia?!

 

[Shawn Endresen]

Surely a willingness to uphold the Russian Orthodox Church is a sine qua non for becoming Tsar? Thus, for the foreign claimants, whoever expresses a believable willingness to convert jumps to the head of the line.

A 1613 style assembly is probably the best domestic possibility, but leaves Russia in a very bad position diplomatically; virtually no one in central or western Europe is going to regard the new guy as legitimate. A Russia forced by circumstance to turn east and south?

 

[The Professor]

Catherine might choose - out of necessity - to marry one (since she was tolerated as long as she was seen as Regent until Paul came of age, many felt she had overstepped her mark when that date came and went) to shore up her position. He would hardly have a role as ruler - Catherine, Potemkin and her lover of the day would still rule - but he would perhaps do what Umberto I of Italy said: "To be a king, all you need to be able to do is to sit a horse, sign your name, and read a newspaper". And Europe has several "weak" rulers at that point governed by favorites/mistresses/wives - Louis XV, Christian VI, & Willem V - for it to be acceptable.

That sounds reasonable.
If she predeceases him however there'll be serious repurcussions as he tries to exert power.
Perhaps this results in a British-style constitution?

 

[raharris1973]

A 1613 style assembly is probably the best domestic possibility, but leaves Russia in a very bad position diplomatically; virtually no one in central or western Europe is going to regard the new guy as legitimate. A Russia forced by circumstance to turn east and south?

Perhaps this results in a British-style constitution?

A Union between England and Russia?!

Some fascinating possibilities open up here:

a) the perhaps more likely, and initially boring, alternative is that Catherine and pals engineer a solution for the succession that perpetuates the same system under a new dynasty without society in Russia having much to say about it.

b) but if this does not happen, and the next Tsar is chosen by an assembly, it would make a very interesting story as to how that assembly would play out and what ideas would be aired: --Russian nobility might have a preference for a Polish-Lithuanian system, on the other hand, Catherine spent her reign proving how ruinous that system is (and it wasn't like she was the first to figure it out), Other models in Europe are British and Prussian systems, Unlike the 1613 assembly, Enlightenment ideas, including the French Revolution up through Jacobinism and the Directory phase, would have occurred. If Russia does not find stability until the early 1800s, perhaps the next dynasty has a Bonapartist flavor- modernizing, meritocratic, militaristic, yes also friends with property and at peace with religion?

A 1613 style assembly is probably the best domestic possibility, but leaves Russia in a very bad position diplomatically; virtually no one in central or western Europe is going to regard the new guy as legitimate. A Russia forced by circumstance to turn east and south?

I am curious about how you see this playing out in practical terms. So, Berlin, Vienna and London see Russia as illegitimate, but at the same time France's is not only regarded as illegitimate but lunatic fringe. That factor may lead to rapid acceptance of the new dynasty. Perhaps the new Russian dynasty's legitimacy will be treated as conditional. If new Russia is the traditional tsarist regime under new management, or something seen as very "normal" by contemporary European standards, it might be accepted readily, but if it is seen as fundamentalist, xenophobic or revolutionary, it can be an outcast.

 

[zert]

It would be interesting if events might bring an early rise ofvthe Duma and perhaps a freeing of the serfs.

 

[JonasResende]

That sounds reasonable.
If she predeceases him however there'll be serious repurcussions as he tries to exert power.
Perhaps this results in a British-style constitution?

Catherine could (in theory) still pop a baby out by an Antonovich boy. She had five children with her first husband (three stillborn daughters, Paul and *Anna), and two with her lovers (Bobrinski and Yelizaveta) - so she didn't have a problem getting knocked up.

Many might see it as a suitable alternative in the scenario - and Catherine maybe only insist on her husband as Imperial Consort rather than Emperor/Tsar.

*Anna is still debated as to whether she was Peter III's daughter or Stanislaw Poniatowski's.