Partition of the Spanish Empire in 1668 between France and Austria

[Comte de Dordogne]

Inspired by this message from @Fulano :

In 1668, France was in the midst of the War of Devolution against Spain. The war had its origins in the unpaid dowry of Maria Theresa, now Queen of France, which Louis XIV used as a pretext to pay himself directly by attacking Spanish possessions.
At the same time, Spain seemed to be at a low ebb. Portugal had been waging a war of restoration since 1640, and Philip IV had died in 1665, leaving only Charles II as heir. Charles II was only four years old, consanguineous and in poor health. For many contemporaries, there was no doubt that the young King of Spain would not last long.
And if Charles II died without issue, the Spanish inheritance would go to his two sisters: Maria Theresa, married to the French King Louis XIV, and Marguerite Theresa, married to the Habsburg Emperor Leopold I.

Through the intermediary of plenipotentiary Jacques Bretel de Grémonville, a treaty was negotiated and signed in Vienna in January 1668, valid for six years, dividing the Spanish possessions to be inherited by the two women and their respective husbands:
-Leopold I would obtain the crowns of Castile and Aragon, the Duchy of Milan, Sardinia and the Spanish Americas.
-Louis XIV would obtain Upper Navarre, the Catalan port of Roses, the Spanish Netherlands, Luxembourg, Franche-Comté, the kingdoms of Naples and Sicily, the North African enclaves and the Philipinnes.

However, the treaty never came into effect. Charles II thwarted all predictions, dying only in 1700. What's more, the war between Portugal and Spain ended the same year as the treaty, in 1668, also prompting France to put an end to the War of Devolution (also prompted by the formation of the Triple Alliance at The Hague).

Let's imagine that Charles II died in 1668. Would the Treaty of Grémonville/Treaty of Vienna be successfully implemented? Could Louis and Leopold succeed in respecting the terms of their agreement?
How would the other European powers, especially England and the United Provinces, react?
How will the Spanish elites react to the dismemberment of their Empire?
In short, will there be a war of Spanish succession from the 1660s onwards, and who will emerge victorious?
How will the rest of the 17th century evolve?

You can find here the French Wikipedia page of the treaty that helped me write this post (and which goes into more detail).

 

[dachi]

It would be an disaster on multiple fronts
1.Prestige And Honor&Respect attacking the dynasty that was both very closely related allie for may times and catholic wouldn’t have worked very well
2.France was already most populated kingdom in Europe had largest and strongest army and quite powerful navy so adding Rich and population high Lowland’s and Italy would make very many nations very upset and afraid an potential alliance with Britain and it financially helping itself allied nations isn’t out of question
3.Territory wise austria is very much screwed getting Very poor sardinia and spain that was quite probably war ravaged and quite rebellious and austrias financially situation would not be in very good situation
4.Territory wise austria is very much locked out having very small fleet and stuck in Mediterranean sea and with spain as mentioned above Austraia having to control spains large territory and including their previous problems of Ottomans,rising Branderburg&Prussia,Russia,Rebellious Princes inside the empire.

As mentioned above austrias new land would be very much an poisonous chalice how they will deal with rebels or overstretching themselves will be quite the sight to withhold

5.fragility of alliance How long until france wants all of empire from Maria's dowery or Philippines will be in trouble moving such wast distance they will bee needing now austrian American territory’s

Compared to austria except philippenes france got very good land historically belonged to them and france has always desired lowlands its wealth will be improving france situation

Italy thanks to its better navy then austria france will have easier time controlling italy
And it can if needed bribe or bully other italian minior states allowing it to move its troops

 

[Vitruvius]

In the short term the partition is probably honored. Leopold signed the deal willing, he was not forced to sign after a military defeat or anything so extreme as to cause him to immediately renege. The Spanish will hate it but there's not much they can do. Charles can't really pull the same trick he did IOTL with his will, offering it to a candidate only on the condition that they refuse a partition. If he did that here and Leopold refuses to fight France it would just pass the whole of Spain to Louis as Louis doesn't have a younger son available to avoid a union between France and Spain. So I don't see an immediate war. There is no incentive for either the French or Austrians and I can't see England or the Dutch going to war if the two primary interested parties are not fighting.

Charles' biggest impact could be in setting the terms for a Spanish regency/viceroyalty on the assumption that his successor would not be able to reside in Madrid. Leopold is going to be distracted by events in the east anyways (the Kurucs are rebelling across Hungary and the Ottomans and Transylvanians are grave threats). So he'd likely just accept whatever arrangement he finds in Madrid as long as they recognize him as King. The big question is the relative roles of Charles' mother Mariana (who was Leopold's sister) and his half brother Juan Jose.

The real problem will come down the road. If Leopold's wife Margaret Theresa dies as IOTL leaving only a daughter that would upend Leopold's control of Spain. The Spanish may try to proclaim her daughter as Queen if they're dissatisfied with Leopold. And that opens the door for French intervention. France may support them just to diminish Leopold's power or to try and scoop up some additional territory like Milan or Sardinia. But Leopold would still have custody of the girl in Vienna so it would be a messy complicated conflict. Juan Jose could perhaps try and make a claim or launch a patriotic rebellion against 'foreign' rule. Depending on the timing it could serve as an ATL counterpart to the OTL Franco-Dutch war or Nine Years War.

Spain will continue to weaken as IOTL as the regency ruling in Madrid will likely be riven by internal divisions and fractured loyalties (Leopold isn't likely to ever be popular there) and so would probably fair no better in governing Spain that Charles did IOTL. Naples could do well if the French secure it and allow southern Italy to recover more quickly that it did IOTL. Which only further strengthens France. French relations with the Papacy and the Italian states will be very interesting and potentially fraught. Especially with Savoy, which OTL was traditionally French but here may feel threatened by French encirclement not to mention that the Savoys have the next strongest claim to Spain after the French and Austrians.

 

[frenchfrogs]

The real problem will come down the road. If Leopold's wife Margaret Theresa dies as IOTL leaving only a daughter that would upend Leopold's control of Spain. The Spanish may try to proclaim her daughter as Queen if they're dissatisfied with Leopold. And that opens the door for French intervention. France may support them just to diminish Leopold's power or to try and scoop up some additional territory like Milan or Sardinia. But Leopold would still have custody of the girl in Vienna so it would be a messy complicated conflict. Juan Jose could perhaps try and make a claim or launch a patriotic rebellion against 'foreign' rule. Depending on the timing it could serve as an ATL counterpart to the OTL Franco-Dutch war or Nine Years War.

There would most definitely be a lot of possible conspiracies on the part of the Spanish nobility, although it's very difficult to predict what the course of action would take. To my knowledge, the Spanish nobility was generally in favor of the Bourbons as they prevented the constant wars on the border with France. In this timeline, it's likely that this consideration is inferior to the disdain felt against the Bourbons for the dismantling of the Spanish Empire. It's not to say that the Spanish would welcome the Habsburgs in open arms either, and as a result I can definitely see the Spanish trying to install some semi-legitimate candidate on the throne.

Alternatively, maybe some form of conspiracy is formed with the French to install a Bourbon and in exchange they regain various territories (i.e. Navarre, Naples, etc..) However, I do not find it likely that Juan Jose would claim the throne himself. If he still holds a position akin to a regent and governs Spain on behalf of Leopold, a rebellion is definitely on the table in which he could install either Maria Antonia or a pro-French candidate on the throne.

In the grand scheme of thing, the relatively low presence of Britain on the international stage in comparison with OTL, and that they are under the relatively pro-French Stuarts, means that they will not be against the Bourbons, and if anything will be allied with them against the Dutch. As a result it's easier to imagine a much lower British presence in the Mediterranean in the future. However, if and when the Glorious Revolution does happen, Britain will be even more vehemently anti-French than OTL.

Also, it'll be highly interesting to see how things develop with a French Philippines. Maybe the British take it later on, if it remains French I have a feeling it will remain French until the modern day... but maybe that strange idea is just getting the best of me.

 

[Vitruvius]

To my knowledge, the Spanish nobility was generally in favor of the Bourbons as they prevented the constant wars on the border with France. In this timeline, it's likely that this consideration is inferior to the disdain felt against the Bourbons for the dismantling of the Spanish Empire. It's not to say that the Spanish would welcome the Habsburgs in open arms either, and as a result I can definitely see the Spanish trying to install some semi-legitimate candidate on the throne.

Alternatively, maybe some form of conspiracy is formed with the French to install a Bourbon and in exchange they regain various territories (i.e. Navarre, Naples, etc..) However, I do not find it likely that Juan Jose would claim the throne himself. If he still holds a position akin to a regent and governs Spain on behalf of Leopold, a rebellion is definitely on the question in which he could install either Maria Antonia or a pro-French candidate on the throne.

I think the appeal of the Bourbons will be much more muted here. IOTL it developed gradually for a number of reasons, the obvious being that the Bourbons could defend the integrity of the Spanish empire if they inherited it but also the factional divisions among the Habsburgs. Mariana came to prefer her granddaughter Maria Antonia while Charles II's wife preferred her nephew the Archduke Charles. Also Louis XIV had 3 grandsons by the 1690s meaning that one of them could inherit Spain without sacrificing Spanish independence.

But here that's not the case. The French are the ones who have just conquered (in the Spanish view) large chunks of Spanish territory after the death of Charles and now rule them either directly as parts of France (the likely fate of the Spanish Netherlands) or through French viceroys (in Naples). That's a less appealing prospect to Madrid. The French also have only one candidate, the Dauphin, who would represent a union with France and implied subservience to that state. The Habsburgs are probably more united. The only problem would be if Mariana breaks with her brother and tries to recognize her granddaughter instead of Leopold's own claim.

I agree Juan Jose proclaiming himself is less likely but I a rebellions is a real possibility. Especially if he isn't given his due in Leopold's regency in Madrid. If Juan Jose does become Regent in Madrid for Leopold he could spend the 1670s essentially running the country. Then if Margaret Theresa dies and leaves a infant child it could be an opportunity for Juan Jose to secure his position by proclaiming her Queen which would necessitate a further Regency. Fear of this possibility is all the more reason why Leopold would probably be wary of him and prefer Mariana as regent for him. So its also possible that Juan Jose could have an immediate falling out with Leopold and end up in exile rather quickly and then become a French backed rebel when Margaret Theresa dies. It could be in his own right or it could be in the name of Maria Antonia as the 'true' Queen of Spain with himself as de facto ruler while she remains in her father's care in Vienna.

This adds a lot of pressure onto who Leopold decides to marry his daughter to as there will be a block of people in Spain who consider her to be the rightful Queen. On the other hand if things go differently and Leopold and Margaret Theresa have a son this issue goes away entirely and situation remains stable if somewhat precarious. Juan Jose looses most of his leverage and Mariana remains closely allied with Leopold in support of her grandson's rights to Spain.

 

[holycookie]

Could Louis and Leopold succeed in respecting the terms of their agreement?

Short term yes, long term no. The French will want Milan in a few decades, the Spaniards won't be happy about being broken, and will probably revolt against the Habsburgs at some point (perhaps with French help). This agreement strengthened France in a way that is difficult for the country to have a real competitor. I don't even know if England has the capacity to compete navally with a France with so many good ports

How would the other European powers, especially England and the United Provinces, react?

Not well, especially the Dutch who now have a border with the French.

How will the Spanish elites react to the dismemberment of their Empire?

If they revolt, depending on how organized the revolt is they can basically win by breaking a very strong Hapsburg power base.

In short, will there be a war of Spanish succession from the 1660s onwards, and who will emerge victorious?

My guess is france

How will the rest of the 17th century evolve?

Continues French rise, Spanish decay, and at least a Austrian stagnation

PS: What do you think @Kurd Gossemer, you know more about france than me.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Inspired by this message from @Fulano :

In 1668, France was in the midst of the War of Devolution against Spain. The war had its origins in the unpaid dowry of Maria Theresa, now Queen of France, which Louis XIV used as a pretext to pay himself directly by attacking Spanish possessions.
At the same time, Spain seemed to be at a low ebb. Portugal had been waging a war of restoration since 1640, and Philip IV had died in 1665, leaving only Charles II as heir. Charles II was only four years old, consanguineous and in poor health. For many contemporaries, there was no doubt that the young King of Spain would not last long.
And if Charles II died without issue, the Spanish inheritance would go to his two sisters: Maria Theresa, married to the French King Louis XIV, and Marguerite Theresa, married to the Habsburg Emperor Leopold I.

Through the intermediary of plenipotentiary Jacques Bretel de Grémonville, a treaty was negotiated and signed in Vienna in January 1668, valid for six years, dividing the Spanish possessions to be inherited by the two women and their respective husbands:
-Leopold I would obtain the crowns of Castile and Aragon, the Duchy of Milan, Sardinia and the Spanish Americas.
-Louis XIV would obtain Upper Navarre, the Catalan port of Roses, the Spanish Netherlands, Luxembourg, Franche-Comté, the kingdoms of Naples and Sicily, the North African enclaves and the Philipinnes.

View attachment 853513

However, the treaty never came into effect. Charles II thwarted all predictions, dying only in 1700. What's more, the war between Portugal and Spain ended the same year as the treaty, in 1668, also prompting France to put an end to the War of Devolution (also prompted by the formation of the Triple Alliance at The Hague).

Let's imagine that Charles II died in 1668. Would the Treaty of Grémonville/Treaty of Vienna be successfully implemented? Could Louis and Leopold succeed in respecting the terms of their agreement?
How would the other European powers, especially England and the United Provinces, react?
How will the Spanish elites react to the dismemberment of their Empire?
In short, will there be a war of Spanish succession from the 1660s onwards, and who will emerge victorious?
How will the rest of the 17th century evolve?

You can find here the French Wikipedia page of the treaty that helped me write this post (and which goes into more detail).

This a pretty interesting POD, avoiding such a massive war will in general be beneficial for everyone as they won't have to spend money or men into the meatgrinder, for the Habsburgs it means advancing further into the Balkans for the French it means digesting their new gains and using their newfound power to essentially vassalize the Rhine states to try and achieve their natural borders, I do indeed see some trouble over Italy in the future as the French might want Milan and their new power will essentially have Savoy squeezed and even more pressured than OTL.


One very interesting effect this could have is that it essentially aborts the Glorious Revolution as there's no way William is leaving with his armies to get England when France has suddenly gotten a border with them and if he is stupid enough to do that, the French will try every rule in the book to invade and there's no miracle to save them now like last time, they'll lose their Catholic majority territories and essentially become a French vassal.

 

[frenchfrogs]

I think the appeal of the Bourbons will be much more muted here. IOTL it developed gradually for a number of reasons, the obvious being that the Bourbons could defend the integrity of the Spanish empire if they inherited it but also the factional divisions among the Habsburgs. Mariana came to prefer her granddaughter Maria Antonia while Charles II's wife preferred her nephew the Archduke Charles. Also Louis XIV had 3 grandsons by the 1690s meaning that one of them could inherit Spain without sacrificing Spanish independence.

But here that's not the case. The French are the ones who have just conquered (in the Spanish view) large chunks of Spanish territory after the death of Charles and now rule them either directly as parts of France (the likely fate of the Spanish Netherlands) or through French viceroys (in Naples). That's a less appealing prospect to Madrid. The French also have only one candidate, the Dauphin, who would represent a union with France and implied subservience to that state. The Habsburgs are probably more united. The only problem would be if Mariana breaks with her brother and tries to recognize her granddaughter instead of Leopold's own claim.

I agree Juan Jose proclaiming himself is less likely but I a rebellions is a real possibility. Especially if he isn't given his due in Leopold's regency in Madrid. If Juan Jose does become Regent in Madrid for Leopold he could spend the 1670s essentially running the country. Then if Margaret Theresa dies and leaves a infant child it could be an opportunity for Juan Jose to secure his position by proclaiming her Queen which would necessitate a further Regency. Fear of this possibility is all the more reason why Leopold would probably be wary of him and prefer Mariana as regent for him. So its also possible that Juan Jose could have an immediate falling out with Leopold and end up in exile rather quickly and then become a French backed rebel when Margaret Theresa dies. It could be in his own right or it could be in the name of Maria Antonia as the 'true' Queen of Spain with himself as de facto ruler while she remains in her father's care in Vienna.

This adds a lot of pressure onto who Leopold decides to marry his daughter to as there will be a block of people in Spain who consider her to be the rightful Queen. On the other hand if things go differently and Leopold and Margaret Theresa have a son this issue goes away entirely and situation remains stable if somewhat precarious. Juan Jose looses most of his leverage and Mariana remains closely allied with Leopold in support of her grandson's rights to Spain.

I definitely agree that in the short-term the Bourbon appeal is definitely low, and as time goes on the prospect of a Bourbon taking the throne (even if it means that Spain will regain some territories and independence rather than being in a personal union with Austria,) will lower in appeal as the legitimacy of the Habsburgs increases. That is, of course, assuming that the Habsburgs are able to stabilize the situation. I could definitely see a war breaking out if Juan Jose pushes Maria Antonia as the Queen of Spain, however I am unsure if French support will actually help Juan Jose to achieve his goals--many will see him as simply a French puppet. I find it most likely that Leopold I will retain his throne, but there will be major contention.

If Maria Antonia does secure the throne and the same marriages as OTL occur, we'll end up with Joseph Ferdinand as King of Spain and dying with no heirs in 1699, possibly triggering another war.

 

[Wendell]

Could this result in a Savoyard Spain down the road? Perhaps they trade their patrimony to France for support in gaining Castile and Aragon?

 

[Vitruvius]

If Maria Antonia does secure the throne and the same marriages as OTL occur, we'll end up with Joseph Ferdinand as King of Spain and dying with no heirs in 1699, possibly triggering another war.

If there is a strategic realignment Victor Amadeus could be a potential bride as aligning Savoy would bolster the Spanish position in Italy and strengthen the claim as it adds the Savoyard claim to hers. Though this requires Leopold to recognize his daughters rights and resign himself to the loss of Spain (though he'd likely still try to keep Milan).

Or he could go the opposite route, perhaps agreeing to marry her to James Louis Sobieski, the idea being to send her as far away from Spain as possible and marry her to a weak dynasty that can't press a claim while also buying Polish support in the east.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

I had fun making a Worlda map of the partition provided for in the Treaty of Grémonville.
Thank you very much for your first replies. As I'm a bit busy at the moment, I'll try to get back to you as soon as possible.

 

[Fulano]

A thread made thanks to one of my posts? Oh, I'm flattered.

Anyway, here is my two cents:

About Austria, well, they once again resurrected the Empire of Charles I/V. Sort of. But I am sure it would be imperative for Leopold to divide the Empire as soon as possible between his sons Joseph (I) and Charles (VI). I don't think the Spaniards would like to be ruled by someone from Vienna, even if it is a Habsburg with Spanish blood.
The partition would basically be more or less the same as the one Charles did, but I am sure Milan would be in imperial hands, this time. Unless Leopold gets too generous and gives Milan to Spain, thing that I don't think would happen. Or he could get too greedy and demand some things from America. Yes, those are part of the Castilian Crown and technically indivisible, but who knows? Maybe Leopold could demand a "compensation" for the hassle of ruling Spain all those years, who knows?
This would also make Spain keep Sardinia, which is interesting in itself. In the War of the Spanish Succession they lost it, but in this timeline, it would be rightfully Spanish land. Sardinia was always left alone, kind of a backwater, but maybe this time (and knowing they lost Naples and Sicily) they could develop the island into something meaninful and would be considered a proper part of Spain, as the Balearic Islands are right now.

About France, this does mean they have a foothold in Asia like two centuries earlier. This sure would affect their position in Indochina.
Would they try to push their influence in the area earlier or they would get cozy with what they have and stop expanding? I mean, the Spanish stopped expanding there, but not for the lack of trying. They actually tried to conquer the region of Tonkin but failed at it. So, would France do the same? And pacifying the Philippines would be a hard task to accomplish, but they had better armies and logistics than Spain, so maybe they could actually make more things with what they have than just have a big chunk of islands and do nothing with it.
Then, about Navarre, I doubt they could hold it forever. It was way too close to the Spanish heartland and way too open for them to defend. I think it could become a flashpoint to France, sooner or later, just as Alsace was but with Spain, instead of Germany.
The same thing could happen with the Low Countries region. Netherlands probably would try to grab their share, considering the scars of the Eighty Years' War was still fresh and the Netherlands never really surrender the idea until the Belgian Revolution of 1830, and that's because the Belgians had very powerful patrons and the Dutch could do nothing about, thing that France would be alone in this case.
About Naples and Sicily, I think things would go more or less the same as OTL, with the Bourbon-Two Sicilies. Except this time, it would be united to the French crown, unless Louis gives it to one of his second sons, but I don't think he would go for that. It's part of his empire, after all, and dividing the lands was already seen as a thing of the past, back from the Valois era. But who knows? Louis XIV was as impredecible as you could get, so he could always change his opinion, after all.

About Spain, I don't think they would go and accept happily those conditions. It's their Empire, after all, why would they accept to be ripped apart by "vultures" as a mere corpse? And while it was far from its golden days, they still were a Major Power and a force to be reckoned with.
For example we can't ignore the character that was John Joseph of Austria, half-brother of Charles II, and the only one legitmized by his father Phillip IV. A charismatic figure, actually beloved by a lot of people in the court and also by the common folk. He also was a military men, with sucessful campaigs as his favor, and was trusted by a lot of the people in the army at that time. Actually managed to become Prime Minister for a short time, until he died, in 1679.
But in this timeline he would be alive, and in the zenith of his popularity. If he gets funny ideas, he would sure become a massive pain the ass for both Austria and France, ranging from a small revolt to open war in the figure of King John III (or Joseph I) of Spain.
And yes, he is a bastard, so what? Not like that was a problem for the Iberian Kingdoms. The Trastamara were bastards, and so were the Braganzas, rulers of Portugal at that time. If Spain is with him, Austria and France won't have it easy.

 

[MiniaAr]

Instead of creating an early Bourbon Two-Sicilies, what if Louis exchange the two Kingdoms/Double-Kingdom for the Duchy of Savoy and the County of Nice? This would be a very pragmatic move but Louis is probably not ready for a "Pré carré" strategy at this stage. (it seems that Vauban only recommended it to Louvois in 1673).
And from the Savoy family point of view, this gives them the regal crown they had been aspiring to.

 

[Falecius]

Instead of creating an early Bourbon Two-Sicilies, what if Louis exchange the two Kingdoms/Double-Kingdom for the Duchy of Savoy and the County of Nice? This would be a very pragmatic move but Louis is probably not ready for a "Pré carré" strategy at this stage. (it seems that Vauban only recommended it to Louvois in 1673).
And from the Savoy family point of view, this gives them the regal crown they had been aspiring to.

Savoy is a relatively small border mountain backwater. Nice has a bit of useful land, and some useful ports, but is mostly a border hilly backwater, also fairly small. Their combined value to France is largely strategic, in that they make for a more defensible border, and very little else.
The Two Sicilies on the other hand are a large, very productive, and overall relatively densely populated Kingdom, if not two of them, sitting astride a very strategic position across some still fairly busy trade routes. It has its own backwaters, of course, and administering the place is going to be plenty of an hassle simply because how big it is, and how poor the infrastructure tends to be in some parts. But there's no question of the two making for a fair exchange. Also, House of Savoy would be stuck with a landlocked Piedmont unconnected with the holdings in the South.

Perhaps if France also acquires Piedmont, it would be a fairer proposition. But that would negate the defensive advantage and also create a direct border with Austrian Milan. Austria, that is, the Holy Roman Empire whose lands are involved in the swap, would really not approve.

 

[Janprimus]

A thread made thanks to one of my posts? Oh, I'm flattered.

Anyway, here is my two cents:

About Austria, well, they once again resurrected the Empire of Charles I/V. Sort of. But I am sure it would be imperative for Leopold to divide the Empire as soon as possible between his sons Joseph (I) and Charles (VI). I don't think the Spaniards would like to be ruled by someone from Vienna, even if it is a Habsburg with Spanish blood.
The partition would basically be more or less the same as the one Charles did, but I am sure Milan would be in imperial hands, this time. Unless Leopold gets too generous and gives Milan to Spain, thing that I don't think would happen. Or he could get too greedy and demand some things from America. Yes, those are part of the Castilian Crown and technically indivisible, but who knows? Maybe Leopold could demand a "compensation" for the hassle of ruling Spain all those years, who knows?

Austria would certainly keep the duchy of Milan, for the Colonies, then also getting the Southern Netherlands would be better. Furthermore, why would Leopold be too greedy, if he was screwed out of a lot of bits of the former Spanish Empire he would have benefitted from.

This would also make Spain keep Sardinia, which is interesting in itself. In the War of the Spanish Succession they lost it, but in this timeline, it would be rightfully Spanish land. Sardinia was always left alone, kind of a backwater, but maybe this time (and knowing they lost Naples and Sicily) they could develop the island into something meaninful and would be considered a proper part of Spain, as the Balearic Islands are right now.

Maybe, but it would be the first and regionally only bargaining chip.

About France, this does mean they have a foothold in Asia like two centuries earlier. This sure would affect their position in Indochina.
Would they try to push their influence in the area earlier or they would get cozy with what they have and stop expanding? I mean, the Spanish stopped expanding there, but not for the lack of trying. They actually tried to conquer the region of Tonkin but failed at it. So, would France do the same? And pacifying the Philippines would be a hard task to accomplish, but they had better armies and logistics than Spain, so maybe they could actually make more things with what they have than just have a big chunk of islands and do nothing with it.
Then, about Navarre, I doubt they could hold it forever. It was way too close to the Spanish heartland and way too open for them to defend. I think it could become a flashpoint to France, sooner or later, just as Alsace was but with Spain, instead of Germany.

Giving up the Italian territories and the Southern Netherlands (probably already without Franche Comté) is one thing, both Upper Navarre and the North African enclaves are part of Spain proper. Moreover giving up the Philippines the Spanish foothold in Asia is also a big nono for Spain.

The same thing could happen with the Low Countries region. Netherlands probably would try to grab their share, considering the scars of the Eighty Years' War was still fresh and the Netherlands never really surrender the idea until the Belgian Revolution of 1830, and that's because the Belgians had very powerful patrons and the Dutch could do nothing about, thing that France would be alone in this case.

The Orange-Nassaus might want it, the Protestant elite in the Republic is a different matter. They would rather want France to trade the Southern Netherlands for let's say the duchies of Lorraine & Bar.

About Naples and Sicily, I think things would go more or less the same as OTL, with the Bourbon-Two Sicilies. Except this time, it would be united to the French crown, unless Louis gives it to one of his second sons, but I don't think he would go for that. It's part of his empire, after all, and dividing the lands was already seen as a thing of the past, back from the Valois era. But who knows? Louis XIV was as impredecible as you could get, so he could always change his opinion, after all.

Dividing land is seen as a thing of the past, are you contradicting yourself with your Spain-Austria comment. IOTL a lot of the appeal of Charles of Parma (Spanish Bourbon) came for Naples & Sicily by the appeal that they would stand on their own feet again. An ATL new house of Bourbon-Two Sicilies maybe forced by the other powers might not be a bad thing.
Alternatively a Savoy Naples-Sicily in exchange for Savoy and Nice, as once proposed IOTL, although that might have been nuanced regarding Piemonte. Is also an option.

About Spain, I don't think they would go and accept happily those conditions. It's their Empire, after all, why would they accept to be ripped apart by "vultures" as a mere corpse? And while it was far from its golden days, they still were a Major Power and a force to be reckoned with.
For example we can't ignore the character that was John Joseph of Austria, half-brother of Charles II, and the only one legitmized by his father Phillip IV. A charismatic figure, actually beloved by a lot of people in the court and also by the common folk. He also was a military men, with sucessful campaigs as his favor, and was trusted by a lot of the people in the army at that time. Actually managed to become Prime Minister for a short time, until he died, in 1679.
But in this timeline he would be alive, and in the zenith of his popularity. If he gets funny ideas, he would sure become a massive pain the ass for both Austria and France, ranging from a small revolt to open war in the figure of King John III (or Joseph I) of Spain.
And yes, he is a bastard, so what? Not like that was a problem for the Iberian Kingdoms. The Trastamara were bastards, and so were the Braganzas, rulers of Portugal at that time. If Spain is with him, Austria and France won't have it easy.

So John Joseph as the founder of the house of Malta? Since he headed the Spanish branch of the Knights Hospitaller now based at Malta.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Giving up the Italian territories and the Southern Netherlands (probably already without Franche Comté) is one thing, both Upper Navarre and the North African enclaves are part of Spain proper. Moreover giving up the Philippines the Spanish foothold in Asia is also a big nono for Spain.

The Orange-Nassaus might want it, the Protestant elite in the Republic is a different matter. They would rather want France to trade the Southern Netherlands for let's say the duchies of Lorraine & Bar.
.

That's another thing to consider, France would have more territory, more population and a direct border with the Dutch, meaning any noise the Dutch make that displeases Paris will be answered with force and they will essentially be Findalized and depending on how uppity they get, they'll get their southern catholic portions eaten by France and they'll be neutered hard. France will just have essentially broken one of their encirclement pieces and allow them more breathing room against the HRE, Spanish and England which has interesting butterflies in the long run.

 

[Vitruvius]

That's another thing to consider, France would have more territory, more population and a direct border with the Dutch, meaning any noise the Dutch make that displeases Paris will be answered with force and they will essentially be Findalized and depending on how uppity they get, they'll get their southern catholic portions eaten by France and they'll be neutered hard. France will just have essentially broken one of their encirclement pieces and allow them more breathing room against the HRE, Spanish and England which has interesting butterflies in the long run.

That's a good point. I think the big question is whether Louis is satiated by what he gains from the partition or if it just increases his appetite for conquest and gloire (since the gains would not have come through any great victory). I think the French would want Maastricht and Staats Flanders to round out their control of the southern Netherlands. From the French perspective the drive to create strong defensible frontier to guard Paris is just pushed back to a strong defensible frontier to guard Flanders and Brabant.

And for Austria this doesn't really solve the fundamental problem of their foreign policy, that they face threats from both east and west which will compete for their attention. The Turks are still a threat in the east but now Leopold and by extension Austria is responsible for Spain in the west with a hugely strengthened France on its borders. That's why I do wonder if some kind of anti-French coalition isn't just inevitable given France's aggrandizement and Louis' expansionist tendencies. Savoy could be an ally of Austria if it starts to worry about France becoming too strong in Italy and the Dutch would surely want to slip of the French yoke if they saw an opportunity.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

That's a good point. I think the big question is whether Louis is satiated by what he gains from the partition or if it just increases his appetite for conquest and gloire (since the gains would not have come through any great victory). I think the French would want Maastricht and Staats Flanders to round out their control of the southern Netherlands. From the French perspective the drive to create strong defensible frontier to guard Paris is just pushed back to a strong defensible frontier to guard Flanders and Brabant.

And for Austria this doesn't really solve the fundamental problem of their foreign policy, that they face threats from both east and west which will compete for their attention. The Turks are still a threat in the east but now Leopold and by extension Austria is responsible for Spain in the west with a hugely strengthened France on its borders. That's why I do wonder if some kind of anti-French coalition isn't just inevitable given France's aggrandizement and Louis' expansionist tendencies. Savoy could be an ally of Austria if it starts to worry about France becoming too strong in Italy and the Dutch would surely want to slip of the French yoke if they saw an opportunity.

Honestly France would already have something like the fortress of Luxembourg here so they would focus on essentially vassalizing the Rhine to rule it in all but name while leaving Italy for now. Not that I don't think the Roi du Soleil would want MORE but he would be preoccupied with the Rhine and the Dutch first and foremost to make too much noise anywhere else.


Yeah Austria would be in a pickle here, them getting Spain just divides money and men they could be throwing into the East so I could see them dividing the empire once again when they get the chance but either way, they're definitely likely to strike up alliances with other states to try and contain France.

 

[Vitruvius]

I was thinking that French might not be happy with the Dutch controlling the Scheldt which is an important sea access for their newly acquired territories. While Maastricht in the east not only secures the NW flank of their new territories but gives them an important bridgehead on the Meuse to enable power projection into the Rhineland. So the acquisition of the Spanish Netherlands alleviates the old concerns about a defensible frontier to protect Paris (which was formerly only 140km from the border) but it raises new ones ie the goal posts get moved and now the French are driven by some new set of security concerns rather than being content with satisfying the old ones.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Honestly a very interesting scenario to explore. I'd heard of the 1668 Treaty, but had never actually seen the proposed partition until now. I do have some thoughts on how such a scenario would unfold.

1. IDK who drew up this partition plan, but it seems like a nightmare to actually enforce. Of the three partition treaties, this is the only one that tried to divide up Spain proper (Navarre and part of Catalonia) and dealt with the Colonies (Philippines). Personally, I can't help but wonder if the treaty was ever meant to be enforceable, or was merely Leopold acknowledging France had to gain a good part of the Spanish monarchy in any partition treaty. Realistically, I don't think France is getting Navarre, the African enclaves or the Philippines, and the Italian division might be renegotiated. The Spanish Netherlands and Franche-Comte seem spot on though.

2. Assuming that the treaty goes into effect, or at least serves as a basis for a final settlement, Leopold I is NOT getting the Spanish Crown in his own right. Felipe IV's will had acknowledged the succession rights of Infanta Margarita Teresa as heiress to Carlos II, as had the Spanish Court. So she would inherit as Margarita I on her brother's death, with Leopold as co-ruler (likely in the model of Isabel and Fernando, and the later Portuguese model in the 18th/19th centuries). Moreover, exactly how much influence Leopold would be able to have as an absentee, foreign ruler is very much up in the air. I think he'd have to rely heavily on his sister Mariana to serve as Regent.

3. To me, the real question becomes what happens if Margarita still dies on schedule, and without a male heir. The crown would legally pass to her daughter Maria, further complicating things. Maria I wouldn't marry Elector Maximilian II like she did OTL, but she also can't marry a Habsburg either (the only ones left would be her father and half brothers; even with how happily the Popes gave dispensations for uncle-niece marriages, half siblings are obviously a step too far). I'd think the candidates would be Vittorio Amadeo of Savoy, possibly a brother of her step-mother Eleanore Magdalene (lord knows the Palatine-Neuburgs had enough sons) and possibly a French candidate (a surviving son of Monsieur and Minette or a surviving second son of Louis XIV and Maria Theresa). Of course, if Maria's line dies out like OTL, then we're back to square one and a likely Spanish succession war (the Bourbons would look much more attractive by 1699).

4. For France, this is basically a godsend. They're getting all the territory they conquered or tried to conquer in OTL for free, and then some. Their borders are effectively secure (no more anxiety over Paris), they can easily project power into the Rhine (perhaps a revived League of the Rhine?) and have the other proto-industrial heartland of Europe in their pockets. I can easily see a further push for Lorraine & Bar, as well as securing parts of the left bank of the Rhine following. Of course, I do wonder how things go in "Flanders", as the majority of these provinces still jealously guarded their remaining tax privilages and customs, so they're likely to come up hard against the absolutist, centralizing government of Louis XIV. Might be an early Brabanter revolution brewing.

5. For the Dutch Republic, this is a nightmare. They now have the French directly on their border and a French ally (the Prince-Bishop of Münster) on the other side. They're effectively surrounded, and staring down a King whose pretty pissed over their "betrayal" via the 1668 Triple alliance with England and Sweden aimed at limiting French expansion into the Low Countries. I can easily see Louis XIV persuing another Franco-Dutch war, with the aims of Maastricht and the Staats-Brabant (to revitalize their new port of Antwerp). IDK if it goes better then OTL, but if it does the Dutch are very weakened here.

6. Finally, Naples and Sicily. I'm really not sure what the plan would be here. Unlike what @Janprimus said, there was multiple ideas to turn the Kingdoms into a Secundogeniture for a French prince. In the 1650s, there was the plan to aid Christina of Sweden in conquering Naples, in exchange for which she would make Louis XIV's brother Philippe d'Anjou (future founder of the House of Orléans) her heir, while the 1698 and 1700 Partition treaties that assigned Naples and Sicily to le Grand Dauphin seemed to imply that the future Felipe V would gain these Kingdoms in time (or that they would serve as bargining chips for Lorraine & Bar or parts of Savoy). So I'm not sold that the French would maintain the Two Sicilies in union with France.