Pagan Western Roman Empire, Christian Eastern Roman Empire

[lynxpt]

Let's say Constantine never converts to Christianity and the Roman Empire still splits between West and East. IMO, it's possible that the Eastern Roman Empire would still have converted to Christianity as it had a much larger Christian population. However, the Western Roman Empire almost certainly wouldn't have considering its Christian population was very small. The Western Roman Empire is likely to still fall to the Germanic invasions. The Germanic states would also be pagan. Could they permanently resist Byzantine religious influence?

 

[lynxpt]

Let's say Constantine never converts to Christianity and the Roman Empire still splits between West and East. IMO, it's possible that the Eastern Roman Empire would still have converted to Christianity as it had a much larger Christian population. However, the Western Roman Empire almost certainly wouldn't have considering its Christian population was very small. The Western Roman Empire is likely to still fall to the Germanic invasions. The Germanic states would also be pagan. Could they permanently resist Byzantine religious influence?

So, does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

Apparently it's unclear exactly when Constantine converted and how pious he was. There are accounts of him honouring Roman pagan gods after declaring himself a Christian (such as Apollo and Victoria), and he included pagan effigies in the works he commissioned, too. Whether this was savvy politics or an inclination towards paganism or pantheism or something, who can say? In any case "Constantine doesn't convert" is a tricky POD since he might have been a Christian from birth. He only outwardly declared himself one following the Edicts of Milan which ended the persecution of Christians in the empire. His mother is sometimes attributed as being the one to influence his religious inclinations.

Also important to remember that the Germanic pagans were a different kettle of fish from the Roman pagans. While pagan religions did naturally syncretise, Germanic paganism (in all its forms - it was different-but-similar between the various tribes (Saxons, Franks, Lombards, Danes, etc.) would still be viewed as a 'foreign' religion to Romans. The fact that they weren't Christians isn't going to make them any more amenable to Pagan Rome.

 

[Evil Crusader]

I would also add that Roman Paganism was in decline since a while, in the process of dying the death of a thousand cuts. It would have to reform to actually regain ground, which it may well be able to, but it's hard to tell why. No matter where one stands on the Constantine debate, it's clear he saw potential in the Christian Church's structure and made it his own religious proxy.

 

[lynxpt]

I would also add that Roman Paganism was in decline since a while, in the process of dying the death of a thousand cuts. It would have to reform to actually regain ground, which it may well be able to, but it's hard to tell why. No matter where one stands on the Constantine debate, it's clear he saw potential in the Christian Church's structure and made it his own religious proxy.

Is there any evidence that Roman Paganism, in as much as such a thing existed, was actually in decline? The West was still overwhelmingly pagan. It's worth distinguish Roman official religion from provincial cults.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Is there any evidence that Roman Paganism, in as much as such a thing existed, was actually in decline? The West was still overwhelmingly pagan. It's worth distinguish Roman official religion from provincial cults.

It's hard to quantify, but there's various hints; the decline of Imperial authority that weakened the practice of Imperial adoration; the constant growth of mysteric religions, as well as Judaism and Christianity; and the general socio-economic upheaval, which cast into question everything in the Roman world, up to and including religion.
Of course this was mostly effective in the cities and their populace, but when the administrative centers shift their belief, the one that tends to build temples and staff them, their rural dependencies can only eventually follow.

 

[Silver01]

Is there any evidence that Roman Paganism, in as much as such a thing existed, was actually in decline? The West was still overwhelmingly pagan. It's worth distinguish Roman official religion from provincial cults.

traditional roman religion was very public and dependent on funding and temples for big ceremonies this is what romans called religio, people could adore other gods and join mystery cults funding for temples and public ceremonies declined during the third century as well the empire was in the process of falling apart so at least traditional roman religio was changing

 

[DJ03]

In any case "Constantine doesn't convert" is a tricky POD since he might have been a Christian from birth. He only outwardly declared himself one following the Edicts of Milan which ended the persecution of Christians in the empire. His mother is sometimes attributed as being the one to influence his religious inclinations.

Constantine was a roman through and through, so at least initially he might not have had problems w/ the exclusivity of christianity and might have just added Jesus to the number of deities he personally honoured, only yo transition later to a more orthodox (and exclusive) understanding of his faith

 

[DJ03]

at least that's my opinion

 

[Kerney]

I personally don't think Christianity comes out on top without imperial sponsorship. But the Plague of Cyprian and the crisis of the Third Century had destabilized the religious situation. According to Historian Kyle Harper, Christianity was invisible from an archeological standpoint until the 250-60s, and traditional religion seemed solid until about that time.

Doesn't mean they don't exist, but think about how society was more default Christian in 1970 vs 2023. Also, think how in 1970 if you asked someone what a Wiccan was in 1970 where you'd probably get a blank look vs 2023 where most people have at least heard of them, you get some idea of how the profile of Christianity rose between 250 and 300. This isn't exact and I wasn't there, but you get the point.

But let's say the empire divides more permanently after Diocletian and a Christ-friendly candidate ends up on top in the East (could happen) and pushes it as an Imperial cult and eventually, say over a century, or so becomes dominant/exclusive. I think the divide between East and West becomes more stark sooner and among the elites there is probably some immigration. In addition, Western Religion continues to evolve.

That division probably strengthens the West as Eastern Emperors still have problems like the Sassinids and the Goths. Also the East, with its denser population get hit by plagues harder and falls further. The Eastern Emperors are busy and the West is more and more alien and the least threat, so things like the battle of Frigidus don't happen, which devastates Western manpower and they do better than otl.

Year 500, The West has lost Britain and most of Gaul and the East has lost large parts of the Balkans, but both are holding a central core. Most importantly Africa is Western. But the East and Western Empire increasingly see each other as foreign and while willing to maintain the fiction of being one Empire to not have to fight on another front. In the West, the religious establishment has figured out this Christianity thing and there is more institutional resistance to the spread of Christianity to the West. After that, the Butterflies become too thick to see.