Ottoman timeline idea

[LacheyS]

I have started researching the history of the Ottoman Empire (something I have known nothing about, but am interested in learning) and quickly realised how much better off they would have been if Timur (Tamerlane) had died before he reached and plundered Anatolia.

Presuming that surely someone has done a timeline on this, I looked through the forums but, alas, nothing. Has anyone done this before and I couldn't find it? If the answer is "No", I might start using my research to construct a timeline. However, I would like/need feedback because, as stated, this is a new area of study for me. Anyone interested?

 

[Mirza Khan]

IIRC Bayezid was about to take Constantinople when Tammerlane arrived. The period after Bayezid's death, known as the Ottoman Interregnum, was extremely destructive-20 years in a five-sided succession war, and another 30 years recovering-so if its avoided we might see Ottoman expansion into the northern Balkans and Hungary a century or so earlier than OTL.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

This will butterfly many things. Didn't fratricide policy owe its birth to the times of interregnum and civil war cause by Timur invasion ? Also, how about the political situation of Eastern Europe and Italy at the time ? Alas, this will also predate Safaviyeh Order's conversion from Sunni to Shia. I don't the details about why the Safavids converted, but the PoD will most likely be distant enough to butterfly it away. Not even their rise into prominence (which IOTL seemed to be linked to their conversion anyway), I think, is assured this way. Also to be noted that on the other side, Ottomans were semi-Shia, too.

 

[LacheyS]

Thoughts please?

Khalifa Bayezid I Yildirim (c. 1360 - 7 February, 1411)

Born: Bursa, Anatolia
Died: Sinope, Anatolia
Reign: 1389-1411

There is no contemporary evidence of the life of the first Ottoman caliph until a series of coins issued five months after the death of his father, Murad, at the Battle of Kosovo. Popular legend indicates that he seized the throne through fraticide, but there is only evidence that his brother, Yakub, died at Kosovo or shortly thereafter. Given later history, in which Bayezid had his third wife and five of his sons executed, the legend certainly appears to fit his character.

Bayezid spent the early part of his reign consolidating a vast Balkan territory. Venetian advances in Greece and Hungarian influence in Wallachia and Bulgaria compelled the blockade of Constantinople (1391-98), the conquest of Thessaloniki (1394) and the invasion of Hungary (1395). Despite Frankish support, the Byzantine Empire was reduced to the city of Constantinople and its environs by mid-1405. Venice's forces was forced to retreat to the island fortress of Corfu and to the city of Athens.

Having defended the western provinces, Bayezid turned his attention to development of a centralised state. Primarily, this required a strengthening of control over the Turkish rulers of Anatolia; many of them would be annexed outright, but two beyliks, Karaman and Dulkadir, managed to retain some level of autonomy. Nonetheless, these efforts brought him into conflict with the conqueror Timur. Fortunately for the Ottomans, Timur's death in June 1401 led to the disintegration of his empire and, instead of defending his realm against invasion, Bayezid was able to extend Ottoman control as far east as the cities of Van and Erzurum.

In the latter years of his reign, Bayezid turned his attention to the enemies of his father. The Knights Hospitaller were expelled from Rhodes, with Philibert de Naillac surrendering the island and his title of Grand Master in May 1405. A rebellion by Serbian vassals (1404-07) provided the excuse necessary to end the Despotate's nominal independence. However, it was this conflict which led to a division within the family of the new Khalifa, a title Bayezid claimed, despite Mamluk protests, in 1405.

One of Bayezid's wives and mother to four of his children was also the sister of the deposed Despot Stefan Lazarevic. While records are scant, it appears as though one of her children, Musa, conspired with her to depose Bayezid himself after his uncle was executed for his disloyalty. The failure of the plot led to the death of Musa, his mother and his three brothers in May, 1407.

Bayezid I Yildirim died in February, 1411, was repressing a peasant revolt near Sinope in northern Anatolia. He had been born as a bey of Rum, but Bayezid left this life as Sultan of the Ottomans and Caliph of Islam. He left his throne to a twelve-year-old minor, Yusef, but initially power would rest with a new Valide Sultan, Nafise, daughter of the late bey of Karaman.

 

[Tobit]

LacheyS, it would be cool if a time traveling soviet agent could take out timur. I can't see anything wrong with it but I am also no expert on that time.

This will butterfly many things. Didn't fratricide policy owe its birth to the times of interregnum and civil war cause by Timur invasion ?

Did fratricide generally lead to greater stability of the Ottoman empire. Besides the later claim to religious leadership, it also helped that there never were any other male claimants.

What year exactly is the POD of Timur dying?

 

[Saepe Fidelis]

I doubt that Bayezid could exert any influence upon the Knights of St John on Rhodes; he doesn't have a significant navy nor is his army formidable enough at this point (no janissaries yet, I believe) to be able to take on the enormous fortress; nor is his artillery powerful enough. Remember, it took Suleiman the Magnificent two tries and that was with superior technology and vastly superior numbers.

 

[LacheyS]

I doubt that Bayezid could exert any influence upon the Knights of St John on Rhodes; he doesn't have a significant navy nor is his army formidable enough at this point (no janissaries yet, I believe) to be able to take on the enormous fortress; nor is his artillery powerful enough. Remember, it took Suleiman the Magnificent two tries and that was with superior technology and vastly superior numbers.

The island's defences were considerably upgraded after the fall of Constantinople and many of those were vital to resisting the siege of 1480. In this era, they had rebuilt the Byzantine walls but, as far as I can tell, they had not built any towers or major fortifications by this stage.

 

[LacheyS]

LacheyS, it would be cool if a time traveling soviet agent could take out timur. I can't see anything wrong with it but I am also no expert on that time.


Did fratricide generally lead to greater stability of the Ottoman empire. Besides the later claim to religious leadership, it also helped that there never were any other male claimants.

What year exactly is the POD of Timur dying?

Um, no, doing this so I can have some time to think about the Soviet Commonwealth timeline before continuing.

Fraticide was not adopted as an official policy until Mehmet II and was, IMO, necessary to prevent conflict due to no clear law of primogeniture.

In order for Yusef to be born, you would need a POD of probably 1396. This legal fiction is necessary so that I wasn't stuck with the OTL children. So let's presume that Timur did not win over emirs at the Battle of Terek River and, despite victory, suffered a wound which didn't kill him, but weakened him sufficiently to have him unable to survive until 1405.

 

[Max Sinister]

In my Chaos TL, Genghis Khan dies early, thus no Mongol conquests. ITTL, the Rum-Seljuks conquer Constantinople earlier than OTL and go on to take a bigger part of Europe than the Ottomans did. (They come as far as Salzburg and Rome respectively.)

 

[Saepe Fidelis]

The island's defences were considerably upgraded after the fall of Constantinople and many of those were vital to resisting the siege of 1480. In this era, they had rebuilt the Byzantine walls but, as far as I can tell, they had not built any towers or major fortifications by this stage.

He'll still need a navy to get there, which he dosen't have, he'll need heavy siege guns, which he doesn't have, and he'll need heavy infantry to supplement his Turkish cavalry and light infantry, which he doesn't hav. Either that or all these changes have happened but haven't been described.

 

[LacheyS]

He'll still need a navy to get there, which he dosen't have, he'll need heavy siege guns, which he doesn't have, and he'll need heavy infantry to supplement his Turkish cavalry and light infantry, which he doesn't hav. Either that or all these changes have happened but haven't been described.

I don't understand what makes his current forces unable to siege Rhodes. Why does he need heavy infantry for Rhodes, but not anywhere else he sieges? As I said, very new to research of the era, so it would be helpful if you might explain.

I imagined that some time over a period of a decade, Bayezid may have been able to build a navy of reasonable size. I also expected he would be able to raise an even larger force than he took to the Battle of Angora in OTL. If I put it the entry that he created a navy, would that solve that problem?

 

[LacheyS]

In my Chaos TL, Genghis Khan dies early, thus no Mongol conquests. ITTL, the Rum-Seljuks conquer Constantinople earlier than OTL and go on to take a bigger part of Europe than the Ottomans did. (They come as far as Salzburg and Rome respectively.)

Sounds like hard work. I'll make sure I have a read, but try not to plagiarise.

 

[MNP]

He'll still need a navy to get there, which he dosen't have, he'll need heavy siege guns, which he doesn't have, and he'll need heavy infantry to supplement his Turkish cavalry and light infantry, which he doesn't hav. Either that or all these changes have happened but haven't been described.

He's got Janissary units by this time though I agree, he's going to need a navy. If the Ottomans had a navy at this time, they wouldn't have needed Italian ships to ferry them across to Europe after Ankara IOTL. Anyhow my main objection is to him claiming some sort of Caliphate. WTF? And he just "claims" it? Selim got it because he captured the guy the Mamluks were using as an ornament along with the (Hejaz) cities. In fact until the death of Mehmed II the Ottomans looked more often to Europe than Asia.

So no Rhodes, but more efforts in mainland Europe. Maybe a campaign to prepare a strike for Belgrade?

 

[Saepe Fidelis]

I don't understand what makes his current forces unable to siege Rhodes. Why does he need heavy infantry for Rhodes, but not anywhere else he sieges? As I said, very new to research of the era, so it would be helpful if you might explain.

I imagined that some time over a period of a decade, Bayezid may have been able to build a navy of reasonable size. I also expected he would be able to raise an even larger force than he took to the Battle of Angora in OTL. If I put it the entry that he created a navy, would that solve that problem?

Rhodes is a tiny island in the eastern Mediterranean with strong city walls and it is garrisoned by a force of knights in heavy armour who are lethal both mounted and dismounted. There is no room to maneauvre with light cavalry, neither outside the city nor within-how are horse archers going to take a wall? You need heavy infantry, such as janissaries, to even be able to stand up to knights in close combat. The Turks and, indeed, most eastern armies, used light troops to surround knights and shoot arrows at them until they stopped moving. You can't do that on Rhodes. Now do you see why you need heavy infantry?

 

[The Sandman]

What seems more likely than the Ottomans taking Rhodes this early would be the Ottomans seizing the assorted Aegean islands. Those aren't anywhere near as well fortified, and you don't need that much of a navy to get to them with both mainland Greece and Asia Minor under Ottoman control.

Difficulties with the Venetian and Genoan navies during that campaign could be what would prompt the Ottomans to begin a major naval expansion, one of whose eventual targets would be Rhodes.

 

[LacheyS]

Thanks for the clarification. So how about:

1. No Rhodes.
2. The 1404-1407 rebellion would have resulted in the fall of Belgrade, but maybe if I move the conflict with Serbia earlier, giving Bayezid time to think about unifying all the Serbs under his rule and taking something like Mostar or Sarajevo.
3. Beginning of an Ottoman navy (clearly some cogs and/or galleys, but is it too early for a copy of the Portuguese carrack? Would an early fleet of twenty ships be possible in Bayezid's lifetime?)
4. Would it have been possible to knick the Duchy of the Archipelago from the Venetians during conflict with them? Or at least separating the Duchy from Venice and making the Ottomans the feudal overlords?
5. No claiming of the Caliph title, but maybe Padshah?

Looking forward to your thoughts.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

5. No claiming of the Caliph title, but maybe Padshah?

Maybe Padishah, but certainly Caesar of Rome.

 

[MNP]

I did a bunch of research on this for RoS. I can confidently state that 1401 is too early for the Carrack to be copied by the Ottomans.

So Kayser-i Rum, Sultan of Ghazis and Padishah as titles.