Optimal Post-WWI Polish Borders Map Survey

[Snaut]

My proposal for a situation resembling OTL, where the Reds still win the Russian Civil War, and Poland does not take control of areas on which Belarussian/Ukrainian states may be set up. If Poland can establish clients/independent allies/whatever in Lithuania/Belarus/Ukraine, those states should definitely get their respective yellow areas in the east (which would then become red from Poland’s perspective). Perhaps some of the green ones too.

 

[JimTheB]

There is no way to stop various parts of Poland being coveted by Germany and the USSR, no matter where the inter-war borders are drawn. That in 1945 there is a Poland inhabited by Polish people is all that matters.

 

[Midnight-Blue766]

Poland should have North Africa and Mars.

/CivFanatics Meme

 

[yannik]

"There is no way to stop various parts of Poland being coveted by Germany and the USSR, no matter where the inter-war borders are drawn. That in 1945 there is a Poland inhabited by Polish people is all that matters."

Yes, but only after a genocide and slaughter on ethnic minorities (for example for Germans in Posen with Polish citizenship and the complete annihilations of the Free State of Danzig... (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/6/64/Danziger_Staatsangehoerigkeit_1945.pdf - A whole nation of displaced people (see the document i.e. the are not holder of the citizenship of the FR of Germany neither of Poland i.e. there status is like the status of Palestine's in Egypt )))

 

[Oracle of Sobek 𓆋]

This scenario may require a touch (or more) of handwavium to be entirely feasible, but ideally Germany has been broken up into smaller states, and is powerless to make any noise about it. The "further expansion into Germany" stops at the Oder-Niesse line (so Poland gets Szczecin, obviously).

 

[Dementor]

This scenario may require a touch (or more) of handwavium to be entirely feasible, but ideally Germany has been broken up into smaller states, and is powerless to make any noise about it. The "further expansion into Germany" stops at the Oder-Niesse line (so Poland gets Szczecin, obviously).

And what would happen with the German majority of these lands?

 

[Oracle of Sobek 𓆋]

And what would happen with the German majority of these lands?

Ideally? Peaceful coexistence with the Poles, enforced by *peacekeepers (these borders are from an ATL where the LoN is somewhat more robust, like the UN when it actually decides to do something) if necessary. Over time, they can either become a prominent minority within Poland (like Sudetenland Germans in Czechoslovakia, who if I recall correctly were overall quite happy with their situation), or the can gradually assimilate over the course of generations.

Is this absurdly optimistic? Probably, yeah, but I tend towards optimism

 

[CalBear]

"There is no way to stop various parts of Poland being coveted by Germany and the USSR, no matter where the inter-war borders are drawn. That in 1945 there is a Poland inhabited by Polish people is all that matters."

Yes, but only after a genocide and slaughter on ethnic minorities (for example for Germans in Posen with Polish citizenship and the complete annihilations of the Free State of Danzig... (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/6/64/Danziger_Staatsangehoerigkeit_1945.pdf - A whole nation of displaced people (see the document i.e. the are not holder of the citizenship of the FR of Germany neither of Poland i.e. there status is like the status of Palestine's in Egypt )))

You were kicked for Nationalist rantings in January and didn't come back to post for seven months. Since July 21 you have made five posts (including two you later deleted, as a BTW for the future, albeit elsewhere, on most Boards the Mods can read deleted posts) three of them have been anti-Polish rants and/or Nationalist/racist crap.

Somehow I doubt another kick will do any good.

Go be a Reich Nationalist elsewhere.

We divorce you.

To Coventry with you.

 

[BlondieBC]

Why 41 if not 29?

I'm also curious as for the reason people red-out entire German territories, going as far as to red-out 7.

I went red on German territories because Poland must have allies, and Czechoslovakia is too weak to be the sole ally. So it is either Germany or the USSR, and I keep the 1914 German border to avoid perpetual conflict. The lesson of A-L France/Germany should be fresh on the Polish minds, as is the recent war with the Soviets.

Some problems have no good solutions, only less worse solutions. Poland in 1919 is this type of problem. It is really raw math, more Poles lived in Russia than Germany in 1914. Now if A-H was still around, I might be tempted to make a run for the Polish lands in both Russia and Germany, but that is not OTL.

I also assume no foreknowledge of the Nazi genocides, since this information would not be available to the decision makers.

And I assume these decisions don't cause major issues with France/UK compared to OTL. If they do, I will try to find a compromise solution where I probably take Posen and maybe a little of West Prussia.

 

[BlondieBC]

Hmmm. I guess this will be ok.

I never liked East Prussia being cut off the way it was, and I don't think they really need access to the sea. Other landlocked countries do well enough.

But if we're going to do that, why not just give them Lithuania as well? Let the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth be reborn.

There is a lot of merit to your map if one assumes.

1) The Lithuanians are ok with the arrangement, probably a federation of two states.

2) The USSR would be happy with this eastern border in the 1920's and 1930's.

 

[Styrofoam Boots]

Long time lurker, finally got brave enough to post.
Basically independent East Prussia, Lithuania, and Silesia. I actually had this idea for a post-Napoleon wars Poland with Prussia annihilated.

 

[Vingilótë]

Overall, my map is based on linguistic borders. To clarify some areas, I don't mean that the Corridor should be priority 3, but rather it should become something of an international demilitarized zone, with Germany and Poland sharing sovereignty. Blue parts in the east are stuff which I think might be Polish majority, but where I actually am unsure. Lithuania is a maybe, though to be honest, I bounced between yellow and red. Ukrainian areas are hell, no. Vilnius, I'm divided on, hence, green. 33 should actually be red.

 

[Dementor]

Blue parts in the east are stuff which I think might be Polish majority, but where I actually am unsure.

From what I was able to glean from the Polish inter-war censuses (both the published and the suspected real results) I'm pretty sure that 35, 36, 39, 40, 41 and 42 didn't have a Polish majority or even a plurality. I'm not certain about 37, 34 and 27, which is why they're green on my map.

 

[Gregorius]

Long time lurker here as well. Here is my map along with my reasoning and premise of the scenario.
Since Germany will be unwilling to accept any form of Polish independence and is in control of core Polish territories with clear majority of Poles, of vital industrial and economic worth, conflict with this state will be inevitable. Russia has territories with low number of Poles, mostly dispersed among Ukrainians and Belarussians, with only a few centres of Polish majority, and proved that it is willing to accept loss of core Polish territories like Warsaw, unlike Germany which engaged in settlement and colonization of areas like Poznan.
Thus Poland must focus on securing its position versus Germany, while trying to forge good or neutral relation with Russia and alliance with Czechs.
My premise assumes non-Pilsudski Poland, oriented west, with alliance with Czechs, and intervention in Russian war on the side of Whites, result of which is either a stable monarchic regime with military and trade alliance with Poland or more warlord torn nations but still neutral towards Polish territories.
Leave Lithuania and Belarus alone-lack of vital resources, and puppet Lithuania using local minority that will form 30-40% of population anyway and dominate politics making it a duel nation state.
Poland is led by nationalist instead of Pilsudski faction, who focus on good relations with Russia, France, Czechoslovakia, Italy and Yugoslavia.

12-14oland must secure access to the sea for its trade with Western world. Having Gdansk saves tonnes of money that were used in OTL for building Gdynia. These resources can be used instead for industrial development of Polish territories and expanding military production.
37:Lviv is an important economic region, with vital university and Polish majority, securing it would be a green boon to Polish state, but it is not top priority.
4,5,6: Poles form majority in Upper Silesia and the region is lifeblood of Polish independence as it houses necessary mineral resources and industry.

23,24olish majority, needed to cordon off East Prussia from Lithuania and vice versa

17:Would be ideal to take immediately, as it has strong Polish minority and German exodus would probably reduce German presence, needed to make Polish border safe. However it is likely that it will be only possible after next war started by Germany.


I marked Southern expansions, indicating neccessary alliance with Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia against German clams and revisions of Versailles Treaty.
Further German expansion is marked due to fact of inevitable conflict with German state, which Poland must win by securing needed alliances. Some territorial changes would have to be made then.

 

[ctesiphon]

From what I was able to glean from the Polish inter-war censuses (both the published and the suspected real results) I'm pretty sure that 35, 36, 39, 40, 41 and 42 didn't have a Polish majority or even a plurality. I'm not certain about 37, 34 and 27, which is why they're green on my map.

Only places east of modern Polish border with a Polish majority are #s 25, 22, 21, 33, and northern part of 34. #37 contains the city of Lwów, which was majority Polish, and Super Important, but overall Ukrainians were the majority there. # 42 contains a highest concentration of Poles of all Ukrainain lands - not sure how much would it be (the whole voivodship of Tarnopol was around 30%, but area #42 is half of it, the one with most Poles), could be 40%.

 

[Dementor]

23,24olish majority, needed to cordon off East Prussia from Lithuania and vice versa

24 did have a Polish majority, but 23 certainly didn't, so doesn't taking contradict the idea of leaving Lithuania alone (not to mention that it wouldn't actually prevent contact between Lithuania and East Prussia).

 

[Snake Featherston]

There are no optimal borders for Poland post-WWI. You're talking an area carved out of three empires to make a new state whose existence will offend some people and probably some very prominent people in the state's new neighbors. You've got issues of Poland wanting things those neighbors are unlikely to give up, and the even bigger problem for Poland that in the event of an invasion of the USSR on the OTL model the moment the Soviets are strong enough Poland's just lost its easternmost territories.

There are no good options, there's the least of the bad options.

 

[Gregorius]

There are no optimal borders for Poland post-WWI. You're talking an area carved out of three empires to make a new state whose existence will offend some people and probably some very prominent people in the state's new neighbors. You've got issues of Poland wanting things those neighbors are unlikely to give up, and the even bigger problem for Poland that in the event of an invasion of the USSR on the OTL model the moment the Soviets are strong enough Poland's just lost its easternmost territories.

There are no good options, there's the least of the bad options.

Better Entente victory with weakened but still existing Russian state, preferably constitutional monarchy would be optimal choice. Russians were willing to grant Poland independence with some military/economic alliance treaty. In this way Poland gets territories in the west which are majority Polish, but isn't dragged into underdeveloped East in endless conflict it can't win. Plus it doesn't lose its biggest pre-WW1 export market(or export market of pre-war Polish inhabited territories in other words). A compact Poland made of Congress Poland, Poznan, Western Pomerania, East Upper Silesia and West Galicia, with maybe Lviv attached would be quite prosperous and overwhelmingly majority Polish(around 85-90%).
If stable Russian state exists with normal relations to Poland and alliance with Czechs this stops German expansion into Central Europe.
But that requires pre-WW1 butterflies.

 

[EmmettMcFly55]

Since Germany will be unwilling to accept any form of Polish independence

No offense, but that's hardly true. After all, the Germans themselves set up a kingdom of Poland during the First World War. It was a tightly-controlled puppet, of course, but it was a form of Polish independence that the Germans not only accepted, but set up themselves.

And, personally, I doubt Germany would not accept a Polish state on their border. It certainly beats having the USSR there, especially considering that there was a strong communist movement in Germany itself.

 

[Gregorius]

No offense, but that's hardly true. After all, the Germans themselves set up a kingdom of Poland during the First World War. It was a tightly-controlled puppet, of course, but it was a form of Polish independence that the Germans not only accepted, but set up themselves.

They never did, only promised vogue state after the war. And you yourself confirmed that it wouldn't be independent in any way.
As its borders would be smaller than those Russian Empire could offer to Poles and without vital regions like Poznan or Silesia, German option is worse for Poles.