Zhukov devised a plan for a pre-emptive strike in May 1941 however it was completely theoretical and harshly refused for consideration by Stalin.
Operation Nevsky
- Thread starter Milarqui
- Start date
Zhukov devised a plan for a pre-emptive strike in May 1941 however it was completely theoretical and harshly refused for consideration by Stalin.
Ah. So much the same sort of "plan" as the "plans" the US had for war with Canada in the '30s?
But Its Heart Refused To Stop Beating: February 1941 – April 1941
Overview of the situation: Hemingway would have loved this situation for his books
The death of Philippe Pétain is received in different ways in several parts of the world. In London and Washington, the news are received mostly with joy, since this might help to the recovery of France, but no one is happier than Charles de Gaulle, leader of the Free French Forces, who had been hoping that Heaven would send him something that would allow him to finally free his beloved French country. Churchill and Roosevelt don't like him a lot, but his being the most popular of the Free France leaders will probably allow him to take charge of the provisional government that will be placed in France once it is liberated.
Meanwhile, Churchill and Roosevelt, while they are happy that the consequences of Pétain's death will make it easier for the British to attempt an eventual recovery of France for the Allied side, they aren't as happy as de Gaulle is, as they have never recognised him as the leader of the Free French and instead had attempted to sway Pétain to join the Allies. Now, it is increasingly clearer that they will have to treat with de Gaulle. But they are realist, and know that attempting to substitute de Gaulle may backfire on them, and thus they leave him in his position.
In Rome, Mussolini receives these news with some trepidation. His troops in Libya have been mauled by the British Army, and right now the holdings in Ethiopia are being threatened by the British Army in Sudan and the Ethiopian rebels, lead by Haile Selassie. And now, Petáin is dead! If the French Resistance manages to get control of the country, Italy is going to be screwed. Royally screwed.
In Berlin, Hitler thunders about this loss. While he didn't care much personally for the man, his presence kept the British at bay, as Vichy France neutrality was the only thing that prevented the British from just trying to invade continental Europe or Argelia. Now, his Italian allies are in danger, as they have just been beaten out of Greece and Yugoslavia due to their incompetence! Oh, how much he would like to send the army there, to finally expel the British out of his Fortress Europe! But no, the army has to stay in Germany, because the damned Soviets are right next to their door, and the army and the air force are the only things that can prevent the Soviets from entering Germany. His hate of the Soviets, and of the Communists in general, only increases even more every day, and many of his aides have started to avoid him unless absolutely necessary. Only his most faithful supporters – like Goebbels or Göring – can stand being in the same room as him, and even them find it a bit hard to stand his continuous tirades about any slight, real or imagined – mostly the latter – that has been done to him.
Further to the east, Stalin hardly gives any thought to the death of a man that was the puppet of his biggest enemies, the Nazis. Once the Red Army takes control of Germany, either France will fall like Poland has done or the French proletariat will rise against the bourgeois government to finally install a Soviet Republic.
In Spain, Franco is a bit worried by what the future may bring. Pétain's death will bring a new government to France, one that may decide not to allow Spanish supplies to cross southern France for the Blue Division soldiers. And the reports he has been getting aren't exactly the best, what with the constant retreat towards the German-Polish border, although for now the Red Army seems to have stopped just in that point, waiting for supplies to come to continue with the attack.
But there aren't more difficult situations than those lived in France proper. As the body of the Maréchal is being prepared to be transported back to France, where he is to be given a funeral worth of a great Head of State and Government, a quiet battle is being fought in the nation. In Vichy, several are fighting in order to gain the position recently left by Pétain, most of them people that wish to continue with the current diplomatic situation of helping Germany in some things but continue to be neutral regarding the war, a few – which are rapidly shunned away by the rest – are willing to make the most of the current situation and proclaim an independent France once more, and the last group favours officially joining the Germans in their war against communism.
Despite the relative lack of troops, Germany still holds great influence in the French leadership, and the role of Président du Conseil and Chef de l'État Français falls onto Jacques Doriot, a man that, like Mussolini, was ironically a man of left leaning tendencies – a member of the French Communist Party, in fact – before being expelled from said party and then turning to extreme right politics. His Parti Populaire Français, which he has led since 1936, has actively supported Germany's occupation and opposed any that collaborated with the allies, including the Resistance, which he wishes to destroy. He has even created a group of volunteers, the Legion des Volontaires Français or LVF, to combat the Soviets like the Spanish Blue Division has been doing, next to the Germans.
However, events from the rest of the world are catching up with him. Back in North Africa, which is the second most fought front – after the German-Polish border which is full of soldiers and very well fortified – and in where the British are giving all they can to push the Italians out of there. Half of Libya has already fallen, and the rest of it seems poised to do the same. With the Italians' morale dropping by the hour, and not enough supplies reaching them – with the invasion of Greece having been given top priority, and Malta preventing many convoys to reach the Italian bases in Africa – are only making it worse. Some garrisons sometimes find themselves, literally, at the bottom of the barrel, with most soldiers having only a few tens of bullets per day and a few even being equipped only with knives and bayonets, for the Italian Fifth Army can't afford to give enough bullets to all of its soldiers. Calls for more supplies to be sent to North Africa are heard, but can't be followed on, as Mussolini still believes that he'll be able to beat the Greeks on time and then send more to Africa.
But time is running out for everyone in the Axis. Germany is facing, on the north and the east, a huge meat-grinder called the Soviet Union, and Finland has been accompanying them in that regard; Italy has been facing problems in Greece and Africa, and the Spanish and French volunteers, while fighting with great valour and giving the Soviets as much as they receive, are dying at a pace that the two Western countries aren't very able to replace, so Germany has had to bring more soldiers than expected to make up the losses – there are even several Hitler-Jugend divisions in rear positions of the battlefield.
All in all, as Ernest Hemingway would say, the bells are starting to toll for Germany and its allies.
The Compass shall guide its owner
The situation for the Italian Fifth Army couldn't have been worse. Well, they could have been in the north, fighting the Russians next to Germany: at least the British treat their prisoners well. It had been certainly bad before, when several parts of it were sent to the Fifth Army for the invasion of Egypt, throwing the coordination of the different parts of the army to the rubbish bin, but now, faced with a lack of supplies, constantly bombarded by the RAF and persecuted by O'Connor's XIII Corps from the east, their situation is fairly bad.
Marshal Rodolfo Graziani, current Governor-General of Libya and Commander-in-Chief of the Italian forces in North Africa, knows it very well. His troops' morale is going down by the minute. A few are even desperate enough to kill themselves. Not with bullets: those are only given out in the eve of the battle. No, they use knives, they hung themselves, or even they jump over cliffs, if there are any near. Still, despite this, Graziani holds the hope, the slim hope, that the British advance will be stopped by the Italian Army.
The British forces are certainly willing to shatter that hope. One more push, and the Italians can be kicked out of Africa. East Africa, being almost completely isolated from the rest of the Italian Empire and facing a good deal of troops, many of which are part from other parts of the British Empire, is also a respite away from falling. Having liberated already the invaded British Somaliland and most of Ethiopia from British East Africa and Sudan, with heavy support from South Africa, the British African colonies, India, the Belgian Congo and the Free Forces of Ethiopia and France, there was still Eritrea and the part of Ethiopia that had yet to fall, but considering that the British Army was really giving them a a beating almost constantly, it was felt by the British High Command, and the British Middle East Command, that soon both places would fall.
However, the biggest point of attention of the British Army at this time is the situation at North Africa. Considering the strategical place it holds in the Mediterranean, and also considering that taking all of Libya will pave the Allies' way into Southern Italy. They still know it'll take some time till that, but sometimes they allow themselves to dream on the possible consequences of that happening: it could be the last blow to the Italian's king confidence on Mussolini – which hasn't been exactly high in the last years – and he could force the dictator to present his resignation, probably bringing an end to the war as a new government would probably ask for peace. Maybe - though they know it has a very slim chance – they might even join the war against Germany.
But, still, before anything like that may turn real, there is the matter of winning the war, and not a small matter either. The start of the last act of war in North Africa starts when O'Connor's troops cross the unofficial border between recently occupied Cyrenaica and Italian Tripolitania, in the first hours of February 27th. In the last weeks, the Western Defence Force (now retitled XIII Corps) has received several reinforcements, and, with the help of the XXX Corps, comprising the very much famed British 7th Armoured Division – the “Desert Rats” –, the South African 1st Infantry Division and the 22nd Guards Brigade, it now holds a force much greater than the 36,000-strong force that started Operation Compass nearly 3 months ago: its numbers now stand at 200,000 soldiers, divided between Infantry, Armoured and Motorized Divisions and several hundreds of planes.
The attack catches the Italians unawares. Again. They knew the attack was coming soon, but they didn't expect it to happen in such similar circumstances. And this time, things are even worse. As one Italian commander recorded in his diary, 'If the British were able to defeat us with a force hardly a fifth of ours, and when we had our best equipment, what will they do with more troops than us?'
The answer is quite a lot. As British troops cross into Italian Libya, the Fifth Army finds itself unable to counterattack with success. Their lack of armoured divisions, and having many motorized divisions lacking on the motor, makes it quite difficult for the Italians to be able to face the many motorized and armoured divisions of the XIII Corps.
Sirte is the first city to fall. Being quite near to Cyrenaica, it is a natural stop for the Allied army to go to. The Italians may have reinforced it, but in the end it was impossible to prevent the British from entering the town. Despite dogged resistance by several units of the army, the garrison as a whole is taken almost completely as prisoners.
And, if that wasn't bad enough, there are certain developments going on in other parts of the world that are going to make the situation for the Axis comparatively worse than what it has been in the last months...
What goes around comes around
In France, things are going from bad to worse for Jacques Doriot's regime. Having found that few people want to join the LVF, he has decided to 'encourage' people to become a part of the effort in the glorious fight against Communism.
However, he doesn't realise that this is going to backfire on him. People are already quite fed up with the fact that their country has been invaded by the Germans for so many months, making nearly everyone's lives quite bad. And now, the man that is supposed to lead them is instead trying to help the invaders in such an open manner? That's the straw that broke the camel's back. And, considering that there are very few German soldiers around, there is no one that can really enforce that part.
France stands on the brink of full rebellion against Doriot and the Nazi supporters in Vichy. The Resistance is certainly getting a lot of people on their side. If not as active members, then as passive supporters or informers, giving them any information that might be useful through the complex chain of people that make up the Resistance. The lack of German soldiers makes everyone bolder than before, and most of them wish to return to the times of the Republic.
It isn't yet time for the French Republic to be back, though. Despite the general feeling in favour of it, the ones who can start everything still know that, for France to be freed, it'll take something very distracting for the Germans to happen. The German-Polish border is currently witness to a standstill between the Soviet and the German forces, in which only small skirmishes are fought. Further to the north, in Norway, the harsh winter has stopped practically all fighting, though the Finns are still able to launch limited attacks with their skiing units.
The Soviets are holding up for the moment the attack, waiting for a more benign moment to launch the next phase of what they hope will, in the end, give them complete control over Europe, and finally fulfil Stalin's dream of a Soviet Union stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Meanwhile, they have taken to organise the currently held territories. Poland, Romania and Slovakia have been totally conquered, and parts of the Sudetenland and Bulgaria have also been taken. The first three nations were going to become the first – but not the last – nations to do what only two other nations had ever done: formally declare themselves as Communist nations.
The first to do this has been Poland. Being that they were the first nation to be completely “freed” by the Soviets – apparently, the fact that the Soviets invaded them in September 1939 doesn't seem to be taken into account –, the small Polish Communist Party has declared the People's Republic of Poland, with the support of the Red Army. Władysław Gomułka, leader of the PCP, hopes that this will be the start of a beautiful friendship between Poland and the Soviet Union.
The thing is, not many people are happy with the idea of a Communist state in Poland, least of all the Polish. Although the minority PCP may like to think otherwise, most of the population are very much set against them. Communism has had very few to do with them, and so far their only experiences with it have been bad: the Polish-Soviet War of 1919-20 was bad, but the invasion of September 1939 was even worse. And if that wasn't enough, the mere fact that it is Russia that is forcing them to adopt their ideology will always strike a bad light into it: Russia has oppressed the Polish for way too much time, thank you very much.
After being formally given control of his nation from the hands of newly appointed – due to the great success of Operations Nevsky and Volga – Marshal of the Soviet Union Georgy Zhukov, the first announcement of new Prime Minister Gomulka is the signing of a treaty of military and diplomatic alliance and friendship between the People's Republic of Poland and the Soviet Union. Behind all the good and sweet words, however, lays the real truth that only very skilled politicians are able to gather: the treaty will, in effect, give the Soviet Union total control over the foreign policy and most nation-ranging policies of the young People's Republic.
The second to go on through the same process is Romania. After the hard fight between the fascist Iron Guard government and the Red Army, the nation is slightly in shambles. The new Prime Minister, Petru Groza, has forced young King Michael I into exile to Great Britain despite his young age – only 14 – and has signed a pact similar to the one signed by Poland. The three nations will later join in a “defensive alliance” that will be called by journalists “the Warsaw Pact”, as it was in the Polish capital where this alliance is signed.
These news are badly received in London and Washington D.C.. The official, democratically chosen government-in-exile of Poland has already lodged a complaint about this, but unfortunately there isn't much else they can do, save to worry and prepare themselves for a hard fight. Both Churchill and Roosevelt know that the Soviet Union will be perfectly willing to attack them at any moment, and with the Axis becoming less of a threat every second, Communism is slowly taking over that position. That's why the plans for the hypothetical defence of the northernmost regions of their nations are going forward as planned. Several fortifications are being brought up, and old ones are being repaired. They know that they won't do much against tanks and artillery, but every thing that helps to delay the potential enemy is a welcome thing. It might even be what positively changes the war in the future.
There is no rest for the weary
Spring has come to the northern hemisphere, and with that, the thawing of the winter that has stopped nearly all fighting in eastern Europe. This is a moment both expected and dreaded in many parts of the world. The outcome of this war could indeed change the whole shape of the world. For good or bad, no one will be able to know till the outcome arrives.
The first stroke doesn't come at Poland, which is surprising, given that it is there where there are the most soldiers. Instead, the northern group of the Red Army is the one to lead into the battle first, facing the Finnish Army and the German Army's detachment in Norway.
Unfortunately, the Finnish Army, despite German help, is still quite weak, and the things that helped them last time (the cold, the snow and all the things companion to them) are out, thus giving the Soviets the edge in this war. The Mannerheim Line will hold out, thanks to the bravery of the Finnish soldiers, but the Red Air Force has made mincemeat out of the Finnish Air Force and the few Luftwaffe squadrons that have been deployed by the German in Norway, paving the way for the Red Army to come through and smash them. Mannerheim himself has to run away to Sweden – the only place that will actually serve him as a potential protection from the Soviets. It'll take a couple of months before Finland is totally occupied by the Red Army, but this will be mostly because the Soviets are deploying more units to far more important places: Norway and Poland, mostly. There is also some deploying in the south, aiding the Romanian Army (what remains of it, actually) in fighting the Nazi allies in there. At this time, it's only Hungary, but later it'll be Slovakia, and later it'll be support for the Communist guerillas in Yugoslavia and Greece.
The biggest battles are, obviously, being fought in the Polish-German border. With the bulk of the Soviet Red Army facing the full rage of the Nazi Army – which, even if somewhat diminished due to the beating it got back in November, it is still a well oiled war machine – the place is choke full with the explosion of bombs, the smell of the gunpowder is easy to smell from the air, and the burnt remains of several tanks litter the ground. Warplanes sour the sky, hitting each other and the ground units with bullets and bombs as they try to cause the biggest harm to the enemy while trying to be harmed the least possible. This obvious feeling, common to all fighters in a battle, can not overcome the wish to destroy their mortal enemy (after all, Fascism and Communism have been great enemies practically since the birth of Fascism in Italy), and thus the frontline is a continuous come-and-go between Germany and Poland.
Despite their great strength and tactical abilities (the latter being slightly superior to the Soviets) the Germans simply don't have the same level of resources the Russians can display. German soldiers are dying at a great speed, but they can't replenish them at the same rate the Soviets can. Their access to other natural resources is also quite damaged: while they have access to great sources of iron, coal and wolfram (the first two from their mines in western Germany, the latter from their Spanish allies), they are at very dire straits when it comes to vital resources like oil, which they don't have many about. Even with oil being reserved exclusively for the use of the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe, the reserves are getting depleted as time passes. Only through friendly France and Spain can oil be bought from other nations (Italy isn't selling from the Albanian oil field of Patos Marinzas since they are using all of it for themselves), and the British Royal Navy is doing its best to insure that the least possible oil reaches Germany.
Slowly, due to this disadvantage, Germany starts to lose land to the Soviets. It comes at a high cost for them, sure, but this cost is something the Soviets can handle thanks to their great reserves. And slowly, slowly, but surely, the death of Nazi Germany is arriving, and it'll be difficult to stop it.
Freedom! Freedom from the clutches of Tyranny!
It is 1st April 1941. 6 AM. In the coastal town of Simrishamn, Sweden, the fishers are already coming back from fishing in the nearby sea, catching many fishes that they hope to be able to sell later in the market. Other points of the town are starting to wake up as well. However, none of them know that this won't be a normal day.
At 6:15 AM, a medium sized ship arrives to Simrishamn's port. No one expected this ship. It does not belong to any of the locals, nor were they informed previously that such a ship would arrive then.
Once it docks in the port, out of the ship come many people. Several tens of people, all of them with obvious signs of malnourishment, many of them women or children, several of them old men, a few young men, come down from the ship. Those that remain on the ship await until all the passengers have left the ship, and immediately leave the port, after saying something to the recently arrived people.
The reactions of the people upon arriving to the port are varied. Some of them fall on their knees and kiss the floor. Others fall on their backs, clearly exhausted. Most of the women start to cry, hugging their sons and husbands. But something is similar amongst them all: they are smiling.
They are the first people to arrive from Poland. The first of the large group that escaped from the Warsaw Ghetto nearly 5 months ago. It have been some very long 5 months, having to survive in the middle of the forests in northern Poland by hunting animals and collecting what few foodstuffs that still remained in there. Many died due to the low temperatures. But, somehow, nearly 80% of the people that managed to escape from Warsaw have managed to survive in there. And, now that the time allows for relatively safe travelling through the sea, they can finally reach Sweden.
Over the next two weeks, several towns in the Swedish south-east coast will see similar scenes happening there, with groups of Jewish people landing there by hundreds, using all kinds of ships, and all of them always have a big smile when they land. By now, the Swedish government has decided that all the Jews that arrive to their nation will be allowed to stay and will also enjoy the support of the Swedish population. The knowledge of what the Germans have been doing with the European Jews is more than enough to push them to do it.
But they do not know that the worst is about to come. For, in the middle of Soviet-occupied Poland and Romania, the Soviets have started operations for many prison camps for German POWs, several people of the intelligentsia of both countries and, worse of all, those Jews that either weren't able to escape Warsaw or were caught in their way south. The Germans will soon notice the irony that now the former prisoners and the former jailers now share “accommodations” in the same place.
Soon, the Germans will realise that it is not ironic at all. Rather, it is hell.
Overview of the situation: Hemingway would have loved this situation for his books
The death of Philippe Pétain is received in different ways in several parts of the world. In London and Washington, the news are received mostly with joy, since this might help to the recovery of France, but no one is happier than Charles de Gaulle, leader of the Free French Forces, who had been hoping that Heaven would send him something that would allow him to finally free his beloved French country. Churchill and Roosevelt don't like him a lot, but his being the most popular of the Free France leaders will probably allow him to take charge of the provisional government that will be placed in France once it is liberated.
Meanwhile, Churchill and Roosevelt, while they are happy that the consequences of Pétain's death will make it easier for the British to attempt an eventual recovery of France for the Allied side, they aren't as happy as de Gaulle is, as they have never recognised him as the leader of the Free French and instead had attempted to sway Pétain to join the Allies. Now, it is increasingly clearer that they will have to treat with de Gaulle. But they are realist, and know that attempting to substitute de Gaulle may backfire on them, and thus they leave him in his position.
In Rome, Mussolini receives these news with some trepidation. His troops in Libya have been mauled by the British Army, and right now the holdings in Ethiopia are being threatened by the British Army in Sudan and the Ethiopian rebels, lead by Haile Selassie. And now, Petáin is dead! If the French Resistance manages to get control of the country, Italy is going to be screwed. Royally screwed.
In Berlin, Hitler thunders about this loss. While he didn't care much personally for the man, his presence kept the British at bay, as Vichy France neutrality was the only thing that prevented the British from just trying to invade continental Europe or Argelia. Now, his Italian allies are in danger, as they have just been beaten out of Greece and Yugoslavia due to their incompetence! Oh, how much he would like to send the army there, to finally expel the British out of his Fortress Europe! But no, the army has to stay in Germany, because the damned Soviets are right next to their door, and the army and the air force are the only things that can prevent the Soviets from entering Germany. His hate of the Soviets, and of the Communists in general, only increases even more every day, and many of his aides have started to avoid him unless absolutely necessary. Only his most faithful supporters – like Goebbels or Göring – can stand being in the same room as him, and even them find it a bit hard to stand his continuous tirades about any slight, real or imagined – mostly the latter – that has been done to him.
Further to the east, Stalin hardly gives any thought to the death of a man that was the puppet of his biggest enemies, the Nazis. Once the Red Army takes control of Germany, either France will fall like Poland has done or the French proletariat will rise against the bourgeois government to finally install a Soviet Republic.
In Spain, Franco is a bit worried by what the future may bring. Pétain's death will bring a new government to France, one that may decide not to allow Spanish supplies to cross southern France for the Blue Division soldiers. And the reports he has been getting aren't exactly the best, what with the constant retreat towards the German-Polish border, although for now the Red Army seems to have stopped just in that point, waiting for supplies to come to continue with the attack.
But there aren't more difficult situations than those lived in France proper. As the body of the Maréchal is being prepared to be transported back to France, where he is to be given a funeral worth of a great Head of State and Government, a quiet battle is being fought in the nation. In Vichy, several are fighting in order to gain the position recently left by Pétain, most of them people that wish to continue with the current diplomatic situation of helping Germany in some things but continue to be neutral regarding the war, a few – which are rapidly shunned away by the rest – are willing to make the most of the current situation and proclaim an independent France once more, and the last group favours officially joining the Germans in their war against communism.
Despite the relative lack of troops, Germany still holds great influence in the French leadership, and the role of Président du Conseil and Chef de l'État Français falls onto Jacques Doriot, a man that, like Mussolini, was ironically a man of left leaning tendencies – a member of the French Communist Party, in fact – before being expelled from said party and then turning to extreme right politics. His Parti Populaire Français, which he has led since 1936, has actively supported Germany's occupation and opposed any that collaborated with the allies, including the Resistance, which he wishes to destroy. He has even created a group of volunteers, the Legion des Volontaires Français or LVF, to combat the Soviets like the Spanish Blue Division has been doing, next to the Germans.
However, events from the rest of the world are catching up with him. Back in North Africa, which is the second most fought front – after the German-Polish border which is full of soldiers and very well fortified – and in where the British are giving all they can to push the Italians out of there. Half of Libya has already fallen, and the rest of it seems poised to do the same. With the Italians' morale dropping by the hour, and not enough supplies reaching them – with the invasion of Greece having been given top priority, and Malta preventing many convoys to reach the Italian bases in Africa – are only making it worse. Some garrisons sometimes find themselves, literally, at the bottom of the barrel, with most soldiers having only a few tens of bullets per day and a few even being equipped only with knives and bayonets, for the Italian Fifth Army can't afford to give enough bullets to all of its soldiers. Calls for more supplies to be sent to North Africa are heard, but can't be followed on, as Mussolini still believes that he'll be able to beat the Greeks on time and then send more to Africa.
But time is running out for everyone in the Axis. Germany is facing, on the north and the east, a huge meat-grinder called the Soviet Union, and Finland has been accompanying them in that regard; Italy has been facing problems in Greece and Africa, and the Spanish and French volunteers, while fighting with great valour and giving the Soviets as much as they receive, are dying at a pace that the two Western countries aren't very able to replace, so Germany has had to bring more soldiers than expected to make up the losses – there are even several Hitler-Jugend divisions in rear positions of the battlefield.
All in all, as Ernest Hemingway would say, the bells are starting to toll for Germany and its allies.
The Compass shall guide its owner
The situation for the Italian Fifth Army couldn't have been worse. Well, they could have been in the north, fighting the Russians next to Germany: at least the British treat their prisoners well. It had been certainly bad before, when several parts of it were sent to the Fifth Army for the invasion of Egypt, throwing the coordination of the different parts of the army to the rubbish bin, but now, faced with a lack of supplies, constantly bombarded by the RAF and persecuted by O'Connor's XIII Corps from the east, their situation is fairly bad.
Marshal Rodolfo Graziani, current Governor-General of Libya and Commander-in-Chief of the Italian forces in North Africa, knows it very well. His troops' morale is going down by the minute. A few are even desperate enough to kill themselves. Not with bullets: those are only given out in the eve of the battle. No, they use knives, they hung themselves, or even they jump over cliffs, if there are any near. Still, despite this, Graziani holds the hope, the slim hope, that the British advance will be stopped by the Italian Army.
The British forces are certainly willing to shatter that hope. One more push, and the Italians can be kicked out of Africa. East Africa, being almost completely isolated from the rest of the Italian Empire and facing a good deal of troops, many of which are part from other parts of the British Empire, is also a respite away from falling. Having liberated already the invaded British Somaliland and most of Ethiopia from British East Africa and Sudan, with heavy support from South Africa, the British African colonies, India, the Belgian Congo and the Free Forces of Ethiopia and France, there was still Eritrea and the part of Ethiopia that had yet to fall, but considering that the British Army was really giving them a a beating almost constantly, it was felt by the British High Command, and the British Middle East Command, that soon both places would fall.
However, the biggest point of attention of the British Army at this time is the situation at North Africa. Considering the strategical place it holds in the Mediterranean, and also considering that taking all of Libya will pave the Allies' way into Southern Italy. They still know it'll take some time till that, but sometimes they allow themselves to dream on the possible consequences of that happening: it could be the last blow to the Italian's king confidence on Mussolini – which hasn't been exactly high in the last years – and he could force the dictator to present his resignation, probably bringing an end to the war as a new government would probably ask for peace. Maybe - though they know it has a very slim chance – they might even join the war against Germany.
But, still, before anything like that may turn real, there is the matter of winning the war, and not a small matter either. The start of the last act of war in North Africa starts when O'Connor's troops cross the unofficial border between recently occupied Cyrenaica and Italian Tripolitania, in the first hours of February 27th. In the last weeks, the Western Defence Force (now retitled XIII Corps) has received several reinforcements, and, with the help of the XXX Corps, comprising the very much famed British 7th Armoured Division – the “Desert Rats” –, the South African 1st Infantry Division and the 22nd Guards Brigade, it now holds a force much greater than the 36,000-strong force that started Operation Compass nearly 3 months ago: its numbers now stand at 200,000 soldiers, divided between Infantry, Armoured and Motorized Divisions and several hundreds of planes.
The attack catches the Italians unawares. Again. They knew the attack was coming soon, but they didn't expect it to happen in such similar circumstances. And this time, things are even worse. As one Italian commander recorded in his diary, 'If the British were able to defeat us with a force hardly a fifth of ours, and when we had our best equipment, what will they do with more troops than us?'
The answer is quite a lot. As British troops cross into Italian Libya, the Fifth Army finds itself unable to counterattack with success. Their lack of armoured divisions, and having many motorized divisions lacking on the motor, makes it quite difficult for the Italians to be able to face the many motorized and armoured divisions of the XIII Corps.
Sirte is the first city to fall. Being quite near to Cyrenaica, it is a natural stop for the Allied army to go to. The Italians may have reinforced it, but in the end it was impossible to prevent the British from entering the town. Despite dogged resistance by several units of the army, the garrison as a whole is taken almost completely as prisoners.
And, if that wasn't bad enough, there are certain developments going on in other parts of the world that are going to make the situation for the Axis comparatively worse than what it has been in the last months...
What goes around comes around
In France, things are going from bad to worse for Jacques Doriot's regime. Having found that few people want to join the LVF, he has decided to 'encourage' people to become a part of the effort in the glorious fight against Communism.
However, he doesn't realise that this is going to backfire on him. People are already quite fed up with the fact that their country has been invaded by the Germans for so many months, making nearly everyone's lives quite bad. And now, the man that is supposed to lead them is instead trying to help the invaders in such an open manner? That's the straw that broke the camel's back. And, considering that there are very few German soldiers around, there is no one that can really enforce that part.
France stands on the brink of full rebellion against Doriot and the Nazi supporters in Vichy. The Resistance is certainly getting a lot of people on their side. If not as active members, then as passive supporters or informers, giving them any information that might be useful through the complex chain of people that make up the Resistance. The lack of German soldiers makes everyone bolder than before, and most of them wish to return to the times of the Republic.
It isn't yet time for the French Republic to be back, though. Despite the general feeling in favour of it, the ones who can start everything still know that, for France to be freed, it'll take something very distracting for the Germans to happen. The German-Polish border is currently witness to a standstill between the Soviet and the German forces, in which only small skirmishes are fought. Further to the north, in Norway, the harsh winter has stopped practically all fighting, though the Finns are still able to launch limited attacks with their skiing units.
The Soviets are holding up for the moment the attack, waiting for a more benign moment to launch the next phase of what they hope will, in the end, give them complete control over Europe, and finally fulfil Stalin's dream of a Soviet Union stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Meanwhile, they have taken to organise the currently held territories. Poland, Romania and Slovakia have been totally conquered, and parts of the Sudetenland and Bulgaria have also been taken. The first three nations were going to become the first – but not the last – nations to do what only two other nations had ever done: formally declare themselves as Communist nations.
The first to do this has been Poland. Being that they were the first nation to be completely “freed” by the Soviets – apparently, the fact that the Soviets invaded them in September 1939 doesn't seem to be taken into account –, the small Polish Communist Party has declared the People's Republic of Poland, with the support of the Red Army. Władysław Gomułka, leader of the PCP, hopes that this will be the start of a beautiful friendship between Poland and the Soviet Union.
The thing is, not many people are happy with the idea of a Communist state in Poland, least of all the Polish. Although the minority PCP may like to think otherwise, most of the population are very much set against them. Communism has had very few to do with them, and so far their only experiences with it have been bad: the Polish-Soviet War of 1919-20 was bad, but the invasion of September 1939 was even worse. And if that wasn't enough, the mere fact that it is Russia that is forcing them to adopt their ideology will always strike a bad light into it: Russia has oppressed the Polish for way too much time, thank you very much.
After being formally given control of his nation from the hands of newly appointed – due to the great success of Operations Nevsky and Volga – Marshal of the Soviet Union Georgy Zhukov, the first announcement of new Prime Minister Gomulka is the signing of a treaty of military and diplomatic alliance and friendship between the People's Republic of Poland and the Soviet Union. Behind all the good and sweet words, however, lays the real truth that only very skilled politicians are able to gather: the treaty will, in effect, give the Soviet Union total control over the foreign policy and most nation-ranging policies of the young People's Republic.
The second to go on through the same process is Romania. After the hard fight between the fascist Iron Guard government and the Red Army, the nation is slightly in shambles. The new Prime Minister, Petru Groza, has forced young King Michael I into exile to Great Britain despite his young age – only 14 – and has signed a pact similar to the one signed by Poland. The three nations will later join in a “defensive alliance” that will be called by journalists “the Warsaw Pact”, as it was in the Polish capital where this alliance is signed.
These news are badly received in London and Washington D.C.. The official, democratically chosen government-in-exile of Poland has already lodged a complaint about this, but unfortunately there isn't much else they can do, save to worry and prepare themselves for a hard fight. Both Churchill and Roosevelt know that the Soviet Union will be perfectly willing to attack them at any moment, and with the Axis becoming less of a threat every second, Communism is slowly taking over that position. That's why the plans for the hypothetical defence of the northernmost regions of their nations are going forward as planned. Several fortifications are being brought up, and old ones are being repaired. They know that they won't do much against tanks and artillery, but every thing that helps to delay the potential enemy is a welcome thing. It might even be what positively changes the war in the future.
There is no rest for the weary
Spring has come to the northern hemisphere, and with that, the thawing of the winter that has stopped nearly all fighting in eastern Europe. This is a moment both expected and dreaded in many parts of the world. The outcome of this war could indeed change the whole shape of the world. For good or bad, no one will be able to know till the outcome arrives.
The first stroke doesn't come at Poland, which is surprising, given that it is there where there are the most soldiers. Instead, the northern group of the Red Army is the one to lead into the battle first, facing the Finnish Army and the German Army's detachment in Norway.
Unfortunately, the Finnish Army, despite German help, is still quite weak, and the things that helped them last time (the cold, the snow and all the things companion to them) are out, thus giving the Soviets the edge in this war. The Mannerheim Line will hold out, thanks to the bravery of the Finnish soldiers, but the Red Air Force has made mincemeat out of the Finnish Air Force and the few Luftwaffe squadrons that have been deployed by the German in Norway, paving the way for the Red Army to come through and smash them. Mannerheim himself has to run away to Sweden – the only place that will actually serve him as a potential protection from the Soviets. It'll take a couple of months before Finland is totally occupied by the Red Army, but this will be mostly because the Soviets are deploying more units to far more important places: Norway and Poland, mostly. There is also some deploying in the south, aiding the Romanian Army (what remains of it, actually) in fighting the Nazi allies in there. At this time, it's only Hungary, but later it'll be Slovakia, and later it'll be support for the Communist guerillas in Yugoslavia and Greece.
The biggest battles are, obviously, being fought in the Polish-German border. With the bulk of the Soviet Red Army facing the full rage of the Nazi Army – which, even if somewhat diminished due to the beating it got back in November, it is still a well oiled war machine – the place is choke full with the explosion of bombs, the smell of the gunpowder is easy to smell from the air, and the burnt remains of several tanks litter the ground. Warplanes sour the sky, hitting each other and the ground units with bullets and bombs as they try to cause the biggest harm to the enemy while trying to be harmed the least possible. This obvious feeling, common to all fighters in a battle, can not overcome the wish to destroy their mortal enemy (after all, Fascism and Communism have been great enemies practically since the birth of Fascism in Italy), and thus the frontline is a continuous come-and-go between Germany and Poland.
Despite their great strength and tactical abilities (the latter being slightly superior to the Soviets) the Germans simply don't have the same level of resources the Russians can display. German soldiers are dying at a great speed, but they can't replenish them at the same rate the Soviets can. Their access to other natural resources is also quite damaged: while they have access to great sources of iron, coal and wolfram (the first two from their mines in western Germany, the latter from their Spanish allies), they are at very dire straits when it comes to vital resources like oil, which they don't have many about. Even with oil being reserved exclusively for the use of the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe, the reserves are getting depleted as time passes. Only through friendly France and Spain can oil be bought from other nations (Italy isn't selling from the Albanian oil field of Patos Marinzas since they are using all of it for themselves), and the British Royal Navy is doing its best to insure that the least possible oil reaches Germany.
Slowly, due to this disadvantage, Germany starts to lose land to the Soviets. It comes at a high cost for them, sure, but this cost is something the Soviets can handle thanks to their great reserves. And slowly, slowly, but surely, the death of Nazi Germany is arriving, and it'll be difficult to stop it.
Freedom! Freedom from the clutches of Tyranny!
It is 1st April 1941. 6 AM. In the coastal town of Simrishamn, Sweden, the fishers are already coming back from fishing in the nearby sea, catching many fishes that they hope to be able to sell later in the market. Other points of the town are starting to wake up as well. However, none of them know that this won't be a normal day.
At 6:15 AM, a medium sized ship arrives to Simrishamn's port. No one expected this ship. It does not belong to any of the locals, nor were they informed previously that such a ship would arrive then.
Once it docks in the port, out of the ship come many people. Several tens of people, all of them with obvious signs of malnourishment, many of them women or children, several of them old men, a few young men, come down from the ship. Those that remain on the ship await until all the passengers have left the ship, and immediately leave the port, after saying something to the recently arrived people.
The reactions of the people upon arriving to the port are varied. Some of them fall on their knees and kiss the floor. Others fall on their backs, clearly exhausted. Most of the women start to cry, hugging their sons and husbands. But something is similar amongst them all: they are smiling.
They are the first people to arrive from Poland. The first of the large group that escaped from the Warsaw Ghetto nearly 5 months ago. It have been some very long 5 months, having to survive in the middle of the forests in northern Poland by hunting animals and collecting what few foodstuffs that still remained in there. Many died due to the low temperatures. But, somehow, nearly 80% of the people that managed to escape from Warsaw have managed to survive in there. And, now that the time allows for relatively safe travelling through the sea, they can finally reach Sweden.
Over the next two weeks, several towns in the Swedish south-east coast will see similar scenes happening there, with groups of Jewish people landing there by hundreds, using all kinds of ships, and all of them always have a big smile when they land. By now, the Swedish government has decided that all the Jews that arrive to their nation will be allowed to stay and will also enjoy the support of the Swedish population. The knowledge of what the Germans have been doing with the European Jews is more than enough to push them to do it.
But they do not know that the worst is about to come. For, in the middle of Soviet-occupied Poland and Romania, the Soviets have started operations for many prison camps for German POWs, several people of the intelligentsia of both countries and, worse of all, those Jews that either weren't able to escape Warsaw or were caught in their way south. The Germans will soon notice the irony that now the former prisoners and the former jailers now share “accommodations” in the same place.
Soon, the Germans will realise that it is not ironic at all. Rather, it is hell.
Some of these force levels have absolutely no basis in reality. Germany had barely 350 Stukas at this point and not only could Germany not field a 1000 plane raid they could not even reach Moscow from the border established under Ribbentrop-Molotov.
At the same time, it took until 1944 for the soviet war machine to outproduce the Nazi's and that with 100'ds of thousands of allied tonnage helping them. They might have greater troop reserves, but as for tanks, and air force, the Nazi's have far more. Let me check my research though...
I don't think that was correct at any point of the war, at least not for signigicant lengths of time. What the USSR lacked was a means to concentrate heavy machinery (doctrinal and logistical failings); once they learned to do that the Germans started losing.
Da Pwnzlord
Banned
I find this timeline very interesting, even if it's not especially accurate. Keep up the good work!
If you want to know more about this, try reading "Stalin' Folly: The Tragic First Ten Days of World War Two on the Eastern Front" by Constantine Pleshakov - he makes a pretty good case based on circumstantial evidence that suggests Stalin intended to preempt Hitler by launching his own war, a proposition that historian Pleshakov accepts and to which his title refers. The author supports the revisionist thesis that Stalin was not deceived about Hitler's ultimate intentions, only their timing, and was planning a preemptive attack into Poland and the Balkans—in 1942. Soviet deployments certainly make this plausible, as do other factors, such as the failure to build up defenses on the new Soviet border after stripping the old ones of most of their weapons and troops.
So maybe there was a plan, maybe it WAS what Stalin intended to do. He just got beaten to the first punch.
informationfan
Banned
Hi,
sorry to say it, but the timeline doesn´t work
if russia attack germany the germans will know it.
so they cannot be surprised by this attack
the russian airforce was no real enemy to the germans, with the good build air strips in poland and germany the russians will be crushed in the air after a few days. So no great danger from above for the germans
sure - the russians can and will advanve, but only one or two days, the germans quickly will fight a defence war - the borderline wasn´t built in a maginot-line, but still the germans had defence systems. These will stop at most parts the russian advance and turn the russian attack army in the dead destroyed rest of an army
in 1940 the russians needed to retrain their troops, the would not even could muster enough troops for such advance...
the germans on the other side will be in germany and poland with most troops or could be moved into eastern germany within a week.
if russia attacks AND get no help - in 1940 they could not revice such support, the brits needed everything the usa could spent, if the russians invade germany they recive nothing. So the missing landlease will make a big difference
also, with communist russia starting this war, no "mother russia needs you" campagin, just the hated and feared stalin start another war.
the russians cannot build the trucks. His tanks (13-16.000) are useless against the german defence, cause the 3,7 cm PAK can and will kill them very fast, german panzerdivisions will crush the russians so fast and hard that even the iraqi defeat in 1991 will be recognized as "hard and serious defence" compared with the fate of the russians
if the germans advance after they crushed the original russian red army (i really like the idea of russia starting a war in late autum 1940... with winter being knocking at the door), they will advance, hampered by snow and mud, but they will take parts of white russia, baltic and parts of the ukraine... this cause "liberation revolutions" in these supressed areas... but cause the russians will be pushed back slower, the germans have no time to do their brutal policy and they will have support (compat support) by ukrain partisans, belorussian partisans etc. (sure these will fight later on against the germans, but in the first months they are a great help for the germans and even later on, germany has lesser partisan activity, at last no pro-russia-partisans)
but russia will suffer BIG... less t34, only fragments of KV1 and KV2, Stalin political serious weakend after the red army crushed in the useless attack... and the germans can fight with short unhapered supply routes, no partisans.
warshaw will be no problem, german cruelty hadn´t shown big way, most jews in poland or eastern europe had survived similar treatment (so in this stage most jews haven´t really recognized the deadly danger, poles do not suffer so bad but could even see the germans as Defenders against the communism (untill now most poles had been treated bad, but not so bad, compared with later)
german airforce can move to the east in days... with the eastern war starting so early, the germans will not bomb useless british cities (and loose a lot personell and planes)...
you really do the germans a big advance if stalin try to attack first in 1940...
it is fantasy, but well written.
I do not want to discourage you, but you need a really possible scenario. Most important is the strengh and the possibilities of the red army, just start with the finnish war - against understrengh weak enemies, the red army performed awful. so short after this deasaster, the changes do not imporve russian performance, so any attack end in biggest defeat in military history. Also you lost the national uproar and a lot people living in russia will support strongly the germans. Also the seldom t34 will improve german tank technology even earlier... and the USA lost one year of preparation
sorry to say it, but the timeline doesn´t work
if russia attack germany the germans will know it.
so they cannot be surprised by this attack
the russian airforce was no real enemy to the germans, with the good build air strips in poland and germany the russians will be crushed in the air after a few days. So no great danger from above for the germans
sure - the russians can and will advanve, but only one or two days, the germans quickly will fight a defence war - the borderline wasn´t built in a maginot-line, but still the germans had defence systems. These will stop at most parts the russian advance and turn the russian attack army in the dead destroyed rest of an army
in 1940 the russians needed to retrain their troops, the would not even could muster enough troops for such advance...
the germans on the other side will be in germany and poland with most troops or could be moved into eastern germany within a week.
if russia attacks AND get no help - in 1940 they could not revice such support, the brits needed everything the usa could spent, if the russians invade germany they recive nothing. So the missing landlease will make a big difference
also, with communist russia starting this war, no "mother russia needs you" campagin, just the hated and feared stalin start another war.
the russians cannot build the trucks. His tanks (13-16.000) are useless against the german defence, cause the 3,7 cm PAK can and will kill them very fast, german panzerdivisions will crush the russians so fast and hard that even the iraqi defeat in 1991 will be recognized as "hard and serious defence" compared with the fate of the russians
if the germans advance after they crushed the original russian red army (i really like the idea of russia starting a war in late autum 1940... with winter being knocking at the door), they will advance, hampered by snow and mud, but they will take parts of white russia, baltic and parts of the ukraine... this cause "liberation revolutions" in these supressed areas... but cause the russians will be pushed back slower, the germans have no time to do their brutal policy and they will have support (compat support) by ukrain partisans, belorussian partisans etc. (sure these will fight later on against the germans, but in the first months they are a great help for the germans and even later on, germany has lesser partisan activity, at last no pro-russia-partisans)
but russia will suffer BIG... less t34, only fragments of KV1 and KV2, Stalin political serious weakend after the red army crushed in the useless attack... and the germans can fight with short unhapered supply routes, no partisans.
warshaw will be no problem, german cruelty hadn´t shown big way, most jews in poland or eastern europe had survived similar treatment (so in this stage most jews haven´t really recognized the deadly danger, poles do not suffer so bad but could even see the germans as Defenders against the communism (untill now most poles had been treated bad, but not so bad, compared with later)
german airforce can move to the east in days... with the eastern war starting so early, the germans will not bomb useless british cities (and loose a lot personell and planes)...
you really do the germans a big advance if stalin try to attack first in 1940...
it is fantasy, but well written.
I do not want to discourage you, but you need a really possible scenario. Most important is the strengh and the possibilities of the red army, just start with the finnish war - against understrengh weak enemies, the red army performed awful. so short after this deasaster, the changes do not imporve russian performance, so any attack end in biggest defeat in military history. Also you lost the national uproar and a lot people living in russia will support strongly the germans. Also the seldom t34 will improve german tank technology even earlier... and the USA lost one year of preparation
If you think that this is too much of a fantasy, you should see the OTL.com story I based this out of. A few things:
- By February 1941, the Soviets have taken Berlin.
- Petain dies in March 1941, and before the day is through, de Gaulle becomes the Premier of France and is able to deploy his army to the south of France.
- The Soviets are, by 1941, a year away from achieving a chain reaction at a nuclear reactor.
- The Soviet Union successfully invades Netherlands, Norway, Germany and all the Warsaw Pact nations... by 1941.
- The Allies capture Moscow in 1943. War ends a few weeks later.
- By February 1941, the Soviets have taken Berlin.
- Petain dies in March 1941, and before the day is through, de Gaulle becomes the Premier of France and is able to deploy his army to the south of France.
- The Soviets are, by 1941, a year away from achieving a chain reaction at a nuclear reactor.
- The Soviet Union successfully invades Netherlands, Norway, Germany and all the Warsaw Pact nations... by 1941.
- The Allies capture Moscow in 1943. War ends a few weeks later.
Oh man, this TL looks like a Keegan paper compared to the based off of.
Careful, or Their Imperial Majesties will lock the thread just because we bumped it. Calbear seems to be extra cranky at the moment, for one.
This is blatantly false, as even a cursory look at the numbers would tell someone. For example...
Soviet AFV production in 1942: 24,793
German AFV production in 1942: 5,530
Now it is true that the Soviets could not have sustained IOTLs 1942 production rates into 1943 and 1944 without Allied lend-lease. Incidentally, the majority of Allied Lend-Lease reached the USSR in the 1943-1944 period. However, that is influenced by the massive losses in manpower, resources, and industrial capacity that the Soviet Union suffered in IOTLs 1941... losses which, ITTL, have not occurred. Without those losses, and with the Germans operating under an even more severe resource crunch, the Soviets are going to be outproducing the Germans even more so then IOTL.
And, in turn, David Glantz wrote Stumbling Colossus... which quite thoroughly debunks the "Icebreaker Theory".