Oliver Cromwell Lives Until December 1660: Effects on Europe

[Kellan Sullivan]

Inspired by rereading this thread.

Much as I don't like Ole Olly personally, it seems that delaying his death would add a significant wrinkle to European matters. So what if he'd lived to die in the same smallpox epidemic that carried off Mary, Princess Royal and Henry, Duke of Gloucester in December 1660?*

This is not to look at what would happen in England, whether Cromwell would finally declare himself king/emperor or whatever. Rather, it is to look at the effects that his demise had on European affairs.

For a start, the Peace of the Pyrenees was signed in November 1659. Marshal Turenne was convinced that he had the Spanish in the Low Countries on the ropes, and could finish them in the next campaign season. However, Cromwell's death changed the political landscape and France and Spain made peace early. What would the French get if they had campaigned one more season and made peace in November 1660 instead?

Following from that, Spain's armies were now freed up to deal with Portugal. They overran the south and Evola in 1660, and minus Anglo-French support (both would be busy in the Low Countries), Lisbon would likely fall in short order. What does this mean for the future of Portugal? Is it reabsorbed into Spain?

And then there's English relations with the Dutch and the Ottomans. OTL, Ollie would have no reason to trouble the Dutch about a half-Stuart nephew's custody (as Charles II did OTL), so that relationship would definitely be different. I'm not saying he and de Witt need to be friends or anything, but it would certainly affect them. Would Oliver renew the Navigation Acts?Or establish a Commonwealth African Company to threaten the VOC? I doubt it.

The Ottomans- or rather, the Berber slavers- had been defeated by Robert Blake in 1657. I'm not sure whether this was in retaliation for Berbers running slave-raids on Devon and Cornwall, or if the slave raids were in retaliation for the defeat. But I doubt Cromwell would regard it as cavalierly (get it?) that heretics are attempting to abduct English Christians. Apparently, he'd been considering an alliance with Venice- who were then engaged in their own war with the Ottomans- but the Venetian defeat at the Third Battle of the Dardenelles led him to shelve the idea. If Cromwell throws the English navy into this alliance in 1658- when the Ottomans are distracted by Prince Rákóczi- how would this affect the position of Venice vs the Ottomans? Or Rákóczi's, if the Ottomans have to withdraw their forces to deal with the Anglo-Venetians?

*I was tempted to let him make it to 1666 and die in the Great Fire of London

@isabella @Nuraghe @Mikestone8 @John Fredrick Parker @RedAquilla @Jan Olbracht @Fehérvári @Archduke @Vitruvius @DrakeRlugia

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Following from that, Spain's armies were now freed up to deal with Portugal. They overran the south and Evola in 1660, and minus Anglo-French support (both would be busy in the Low Countries), Lisbon would likely fall in short order. What does this mean for the future of Portugal? Is it reabsorbed into Spain?

I would assume so, and that, in itself, would have huge implications for the evolution of the Atlantic Slave Trade and the development of the New World.

 

[Taunay]

Following from that, Spain's armies were now freed up to deal with Portugal. They overran the south and Evola in 1660, and minus Anglo-French support (both would be busy in the Low Countries), Lisbon would likely fall in short order. What does this mean for the future of Portugal? Is it reabsorbed into Spain?

Wouldn't the Spanish focus on the Low Countries though?

 

[Nuraghe]

Wouldn't the Spanish focus on the Low Countries though?

Inspired by rereading this thread.

Much as I don't like Ole Olly personally, it seems that delaying his death would add a significant wrinkle to European matters. So what if he'd lived to die in the same smallpox epidemic that carried off Mary, Princess Royal and Henry, Duke of Gloucester in December 1660?*

This is not to look at what would happen in England, whether Cromwell would finally declare himself king/emperor or whatever. Rather, it is to look at the effects that his demise had on European affairs.

For a start, the Peace of the Pyrenees was signed in November 1659. Marshal Turenne was convinced that he had the Spanish in the Low Countries on the ropes, and could finish them in the next campaign season. However, Cromwell's death changed the political landscape and France and Spain made peace early. What would the French get if they had campaigned one more season and made peace in November 1660 instead?

Following from that, Spain's armies were now freed up to deal with Portugal. They overran the south and Evola in 1660, and minus Anglo-French support (both would be busy in the Low Countries), Lisbon would likely fall in short order. What does this mean for the future of Portugal? Is it reabsorbed into Spain?

And then there's English relations with the Dutch and the Ottomans. OTL, Ollie would have no reason to trouble the Dutch about a half-Stuart nephew's custody (as Charles II did OTL), so that relationship would definitely be different. I'm not saying he and de Witt need to be friends or anything, but it would certainly affect them. Would Oliver renew the Navigation Acts?Or establish a Commonwealth African Company to threaten the VOC? I doubt it.

The Ottomans- or rather, the Berber slavers- had been defeated by Robert Blake in 1657. I'm not sure whether this was in retaliation for Berbers running slave-raids on Devon and Cornwall, or if the slave raids were in retaliation for the defeat. But I doubt Cromwell would regard it as cavalierly (get it?) that heretics are attempting to abduct English Christians. Apparently, he'd been considering an alliance with Venice- who were then engaged in their own war with the Ottomans- but the Venetian defeat at the Third Battle of the Dardenelles led him to shelve the idea. If Cromwell throws the English navy into this alliance in 1658- when the Ottomans are distracted by Prince Rákóczi- how would this affect the position of Venice vs the Ottomans? Or Rákóczi's, if the Ottomans have to withdraw their forces to deal with the Anglo-Venetians?

*I was tempted to let him make it to 1666 and die in the Great Fire of London

@isabella @Nuraghe @Mikestone8 @John Fredrick Parker @RedAquilla @Jan Olbracht @Fehérvári @Archduke @Vitruvius @DrakeRlugia

in reality not necessarily, in Otl Philip IV in his last years of life had reluctantly given up not to resume a new campaign against the Portuguese rebels due to poor finances and other problems on the Italian fronts and in Flanders against the French ( as well as in Catalonia ) but if we consider that Spain recognized the independence of Portugal only in 1688 Otl, I can very well imagine yet another military campaign with the aim of reconquering the region, in particular if France with an aggression in the Spanish Netherlands ends up bringing also in the conflict were the HRE ( certainly the Peace of Westphalia legally prohibited Austria from directly assisting the Spanish branch against France in Italy, but if Leopold can sell this war to the princes as a matter of security for the Reich, then there is a good chance of reversing this clause ) and the Dutch / Commowealth ( not as impossible as it seems, in Otl the English were realizing that the main papist danger for them in the making was no longer Spain but France )

now as regards the possibility of an Anglo-Venetian alliance, I would not be so sure that it could last ( it certainly could exist for a short period especially if in an anti-Ottoman function, for reprisals against Barbary raids and to gain control of the Morea and perhaps maintain Crete as a trade outlet ) but it must be remembered that post-reform England had repeatedly tried to bind with the Serenissima because they were convinced that it was the main hinge to break the hold of the Habsburgs ( and also of the Papacy ) on the region, because they believed that Venice was not as subservient to " Babylon " as the rest of the plethora of Italian potentates, given its status of an independent political entity that emerged from the Italian wars as " healthy and with the title of protector of Italy " ( at least at first superficial glance ) which is why London believed that Venice could be its gateway to the peninsula, suffice it seeing the many diplomatic missions that English governments carried out in this direction, as for example under James I, who in 1606 hoped to create a Venetian version of Anglicanism, by exploiting the divisions between Rome and San Marco, another attempt was made during 30YW with the aim of attacking the Habsburgs through the Venetian possessions, I don't have to tell you that naturally the doge and the senate quickly rejected these crazy ideas, furthermore it should be remembered that there was also a veiled competition with the Dutch republic and in the background the France, for the management of trade with the Ottoman Empire ( what better way to win the competition than to make friends of Constantinople's main economic partners ?, given that even during the Turkish-Venetian wars, trade between the two states were never completely interrupted ) but apart from the common interests in the East, between the two political entities, there is nothing else that binds them, given that Venice in this period is benefiting from trade with Vienna and with Spanish Milan and its main danger ( besides to the Ottomans ) are the French aspirations in the peninsula, so unlike London it will not benefit at all from the weakening of the Habsburgs in Italy, therefore it is a temporary alliance ( it should however be remembered that in this period London had important interests in Livorno, and the Medici had clear intentions of competing with the Serenissima for the role of the main Italian state )

I hope I have clarified the question about London and Italy in this period @Kellan Sullivan 😇

 

[Taunay]

I tend to agree with these quotes made by @NedStark in a similar thread:

Portugal already asked England for help before Restoration following Peace of the Pyrenees. IMO, Cromwell would have assisted them to gain access to Portuguese trade network and to create more difficulties for Spain - the Anglo-Spanish War would have continued for a while without Restoration. Sending an expedition is less certain, though.

But if the Franco-Spanish War continued, Portugal might ask for English support later than IOTL

The Commonwealth had a pro-commerce bent IOTL, so I think if they intervened, they would have done so for commercial purposes.


Sure, however, this was a long-standing alliance with only few disruptions which were prior to to Cromwell's regime. In fact, it was Cromwell who re-enacted the alliance in return for trade concessions in 1654.

To protect/further their commercial interests, to be more accurate. A few thousands could be sent.

In the end, Spain was the common foe. The Commonwealth would have aimed to force their own Treaty of Madrid on Spain - and dealing with Spain that does not possess Portugal would have been easier. It was in their best interests to cripple Spain, and allying with Portugal was a mean to an end.

As for a Stuarts invasion, who would provide the troops and especially the fleet? Nobody in Europe would want to mess with the Commonwealth Navy.

Spain, who actually allied with Charles IOTL? They were already fighting against England and losing. The Dutch Republic? They only cared about monetary interests, and they were led by DeWitt. France? It never had a first-class navy until years later.

It's very likely that Cromwell would still help Portugal, why wouldn't he? He restored the Anglo-Portuguese alliance in 1654 after all.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Worth taking stock of how the New World looked at this time - - along the Atlantic coast of North America (aside from a small Spanish post) you had the Chesapeake colonies, the New Netherlands, New England, and New France (ie French Canada); in the Caribbean, England has recently seized Jamaica, but otherwise it’s mostly a Spanish lake, with French islands being more prominent than English ones; and the islands rest of the mainland is claimed by Spain-Portugal.

 

[raharris1973]

I would assume so, and that, in itself, would have huge implications for the evolution of the Atlantic Slave Trade and the development of the New World.

Like what, especially for the first one.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Like what, especially for the first one.

I suspect it's disregarding that the Transatlantic slave trade was neither a British creation nor uniquely British. The Royal Africa Company simply adopted a practice that countless other nations (including the Dutch) had likewise adopted. Even if Cromwell were to establish such a company, I deem it very unlikely it will be unique in not trading in slaves, even if they do not keep them themselves but instead act as middlemen.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Like what, especially for the first one.

I suspect it's disregarding that the Transatlantic slave trade was neither a British creation nor uniquely British. The Royal Africa Company simply adopted a practice that countless other nations (including the Dutch) had likewise adopted. Even if Cromwell were to establish such a company, I deem it very unlikely it will be unique in not trading in slaves, even if they do not keep them themselves but instead act as middlemen.

More specifically, it's (sort of) regarding how the latter 17th Century saw the Atlantic Slave Trade becoming more "international", with Restoration England and others further cutting further into the Iberian monopoly; this had knock off effects on many parts of the New World, especially British North America, with the legal codification (albeit hardly the actual introduction) of racial chattel slavey. The history here is fairly complex, and the whole chain of causality is somewhat contentious, but I would say there's room to imagine a very different 18th Century Atlantic geopolitical economy emerging from this scenario.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

So what if he'd lived to die in the same smallpox epidemic that carried off Mary, Princess Royal and Henry, Duke of Gloucester in December 1660?

If Cromwell lives until 1660, then there is no Restoration that year. So Mary and Henry would remain in the Netherlands, and would not be exposed to the smallpox epidemic that hit England. Mary would continue as Regent for her son William.

 

[C. McKay]

Would there be a Restoration, or would Cromwell have a more suitable heir?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Would there be a Restoration, or would Cromwell have a more suitable heir?

for the sake of argument, let's assume he still chooses Tumbledown Dick instead of the more capable Henry Cromwell (not sure what the motivation for this choice was OTL. when Harry was older than Richard). Whether Dick makes a success of it is debatable

 

[NedStark]

for the sake of argument, let's assume he still chooses Tumbledown Dick instead of the more capable Henry Cromwell (not sure what the motivation for this choice was OTL. when Harry was older than Richard). Whether Dick makes a success of it is debatable

No, Henry was 2 years younger.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

No, Henry was 2 years younger.

my bad, I misread it that Henry was born in 1624 for some reason

 

[C. McKay]

for the sake of argument, let's assume he still chooses Tumbledown Dick instead of the more capable Henry Cromwell (not sure what the motivation for this choice was OTL. when Harry was older than Richard). Whether Dick makes a success of it is debatable

I looked up the Cromwell brothers on Wikipedia, and Henry was capable but irritable. His letters while in power are described as complaints. Fleetwood, the brother in law, is also discussed as a possible successor, and some felt that he was Oliver Cromwell’s actual choice.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

What a friend said:

i don´t think much would have changed. Right before Cromwell´s death, the military goals of the alliance had been won: the coastal towns of Gravelines, Mardyke and the most Important of all Dunkirk, being the last two handed to England as previously agreed. The Spanish forces retreated to cover their two remaining ports: Nieuwpoort and Ostend, and the inner axis Ghent-Bruges-Brussels.

The death of Oliver Cromwell didn´t mean the end of the war on the English side, as Richard Cromwell remained committed, even when Mazarin told him that he had reached an agreement with Spain and advised him to do the same.

The Franco-Spanish war had been a long, costly and bloody war, with serious internal problems for both Crowns. Mazarin had already sent an envoy in 1656 to negotiate peace, but Spanish recent victories in Italy (Pavia, 1655) and Flanders (Valenciennes, 1656) led the Spanish to believe that they could obtain better conditions that the ones offered by France. It was a mistake, and now it was Spain the one wanting to end the war. The war had been through many ups and downs, so Mazarin probably think that he better not commit the same mistake that Spain had done in 1656.

If Oliver Cromwell had lived, maybe he had been more sharper than Richard and pressed Mazarin for a joint peace talks with Spain to secure English interests like the possession of Jamaica. In the end it was necessary to wait until the Treaty of 1670 to settle Anglo-Spanish disputes in America.