I wouldn't be so sure. The Italians have a toehold at the moment, and a foothold may not be something The Anglo-Dutch can stop, but they will most certainly strive to minimize it.
The two rival have agreed for the time being that interlopers are the greater evil. Italy may find itself quite blocked, and end up taking out its expansionist desires elsewhere with a greater panache chafing from being denied.
Italy is a player in the region, but right now I would sooner bet on Kuching than Rome in the near future.
Herr Frage is right on this one. As of this update, Italy only gained a single island instead of a few archipelagos (and Aceh), and any colonial expansion would come right in the face of Anglo-Dutch cooperation. Prior to this, the latter two have been dragged from conference to conference every 5-7 years or so over their respective positions in Borneo and Sumatra, and both of them have gotten tired of this cycle and decide to team up. Besides, why bother fighting in the Far East when one could just get - as Leopold of Belgium says it - "...
a slice of this magnificent African cake"?
Still, even back then Papua was considered unclaimed land to the Europeans, and Batavia hasn't set foot in that region since the early 1800's when they decided to focus on Java and Sumatra. Plus, at this point no one really knows just how
east should the DEI be, and that might give an opening to any power who's in for a colonial spree. Italy will be in for an Anglo-Dutch collision course, but they might just snag a piece of Papua in the end.
With all this being said though, it's worth pointing out that some of the East Indies sultanates, including those in Borneo and Malaya, had a
lot of foreign suitors wanting them to accept protection. If you think Italy's the only Power eyeing SE-Asia, just wait till Germany, the U.S and Russia joins in! Also, Austria-Hungary might also get itself involved
in this timeline...
Just caught up on the timeline so far - really great! I don't know a huge amount about this area of history, but I'm really enjoying reading it. Sarawak seems to be developing nicely, and based on the excerpts from the 'future', it will continue to do so.
Italy's move for colonial gains in this region could lead to some very interesting changes. Could we see them moving in on China in the future? Or trying to, anyway... obviously Britain would do its best to limit them. And if Britain had an alliance with Japan as OTL, they might get involved - I can imagine Aceh looking quite attractive to them.
Thanks for enjoying this!
On China, definitely. The Qing Empire will be attractive to the Great Powers the same way it was attractive IOTL, and Italy will want a piece of it. The British will be most definitely unhappy about this and would try to limit Rome's reach over there, but a treaty port or two would be on the Italian agenda for sure. The Japanese...I actually haven't thought about them much *oops* but I think it's political and economic situation will be more or less the same ITTL, and a British alliance is also secured.
As for Aceh, let's just say there are now two Great Powers already eyeing it and neither of them wants to back down. I can't help but sympathize with the Acehnese for this.