Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
First for all, I want to say how much I have been enjoying this timeline, and I would like to thank Lascaris for taking the time to create and update it.
Now, thought, I do find the situation that Greece found itself in, as of 1945 intriguing, and I have the following questions:
1) What is the population, economic conditions and social life in Athens compared to OTL? I know it has been a while, but I never saw an update specifically touching on how Athens is developing without all the Anatolian refugees. However, I must come to the conclusion that it is ,at least, less populated. Although I do think that the population loss is somewhat offset by the avoidance of the Axis occupation. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how Athens develops during the Cold War, as many of the refugee "Shantytowns" that later grew to become whole districts of Athens will be missing, that coupled with a more economically capable Greece and no Axis looting & destruction, Athens will surely be radically different than how it is OTL.
2) How is the demography of Asiatic Greece looking? I know lot of the rural population has escaped behind the Smyrna walls. But what happened to the ones left behind? I expect they were would be treated in a similar way Serbs were treated in Kosovo, I.e. being declared colonizers and either executed outright or sent to "work camps". However, I do wonder how many Greeks remains West of the Smyrna walls. Will Greece be able to replace the ones lost? Will the the rural refugees even want to return to their villages, considering that many would still fear that war could eventually return, and thus it's smarter to just stay in the safe zone? This questions specifically will probably be troubling the Greek government for the foreseeable future, no country wants to have underpopulated regions, but underpopulated border-regions are on another scale of non ideal situations, especially when you want to expand said regions to include "unwanted" inhabitants.
3) Does Smyrna, at the moment, surpass Thessaloniki, economicaly or population wise? Thessaloniki, is the only major city of Greece to have experienced the Axis occupation, and a eventful one at that, so will the city be forced to accept the mere third place behind Athens and Smyrna or will they live up to their Co-Capital status? It may just be me, but I don't see Thessaloniki getting a metro system in this TL either. Smyrna on the other hand...
4) We already know that Greece will most likely try to maximise their gains against Bulgaria and Turkey, however, are there plans for gains against Albania, or has Greece taken everything in wants from Albania already? Also, is Sasona/Sazan island (which was conceded to Italy by Greece due to Italian demands after the Second Balkan War) claimed by Greece or/and Albania? (It was given to Albania OTL)
5) What is the status of the Monastir deal between Yugoslavia and Greece, is it public knowledge or a military secret? Greece, technically, didn't fulfill it as they didn't immediately join Yugoslavia in their war against Italy. But, as of 1945 a lot of Greek blood has been spilled to liberate Yugoslavia. It is a difficult situation all around, as Yugoslavia doesn't have a stable enough political climate to give away Slavic majority regions to a foreign power after such a costly, and victorious, war. However, Greeks won't forget this "Yugoslav betrayal" if they choose to not concede the region.
6) Do the Greeks even expect the British to let them annex Cyprus at this point or is it seen as a future issue by both sides? Do the Greeks see it as inevitable that Cyprus will came under Athenian administration, and for that reason there is no need to spend political capital for it during the peace treaty?
7) Constantinople. Obviously the million drachma question at the moment as far as Greece is concerned. Did the Turks become the majority during the war, or have they just remained the plurality? Furthermore, I don't expect many Turks to have fled the city, as the presence of multiple allied armies nearby will probably be enough to convince them that they won't be immediately deported by the Greeks. Something that makes it all the more difficult for Greece to lock in Constantinople for good.
I again want to thank the creator of this expertly written timeline for the time and effort they have put into making it.
Now, thought, I do find the situation that Greece found itself in, as of 1945 intriguing, and I have the following questions:
1) What is the population, economic conditions and social life in Athens compared to OTL? I know it has been a while, but I never saw an update specifically touching on how Athens is developing without all the Anatolian refugees. However, I must come to the conclusion that it is ,at least, less populated. Although I do think that the population loss is somewhat offset by the avoidance of the Axis occupation. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how Athens develops during the Cold War, as many of the refugee "Shantytowns" that later grew to become whole districts of Athens will be missing, that coupled with a more economically capable Greece and no Axis looting & destruction, Athens will surely be radically different than how it is OTL.
2) How is the demography of Asiatic Greece looking? I know lot of the rural population has escaped behind the Smyrna walls. But what happened to the ones left behind? I expect they were would be treated in a similar way Serbs were treated in Kosovo, I.e. being declared colonizers and either executed outright or sent to "work camps". However, I do wonder how many Greeks remains West of the Smyrna walls. Will Greece be able to replace the ones lost? Will the the rural refugees even want to return to their villages, considering that many would still fear that war could eventually return, and thus it's smarter to just stay in the safe zone? This questions specifically will probably be troubling the Greek government for the foreseeable future, no country wants to have underpopulated regions, but underpopulated border-regions are on another scale of non ideal situations, especially when you want to expand said regions to include "unwanted" inhabitants.
3) Does Smyrna, at the moment, surpass Thessaloniki, economicaly or population wise? Thessaloniki, is the only major city of Greece to have experienced the Axis occupation, and a eventful one at that, so will the city be forced to accept the mere third place behind Athens and Smyrna or will they live up to their Co-Capital status? It may just be me, but I don't see Thessaloniki getting a metro system in this TL either. Smyrna on the other hand...
4) We already know that Greece will most likely try to maximise their gains against Bulgaria and Turkey, however, are there plans for gains against Albania, or has Greece taken everything in wants from Albania already? Also, is Sasona/Sazan island (which was conceded to Italy by Greece due to Italian demands after the Second Balkan War) claimed by Greece or/and Albania? (It was given to Albania OTL)
5) What is the status of the Monastir deal between Yugoslavia and Greece, is it public knowledge or a military secret? Greece, technically, didn't fulfill it as they didn't immediately join Yugoslavia in their war against Italy. But, as of 1945 a lot of Greek blood has been spilled to liberate Yugoslavia. It is a difficult situation all around, as Yugoslavia doesn't have a stable enough political climate to give away Slavic majority regions to a foreign power after such a costly, and victorious, war. However, Greeks won't forget this "Yugoslav betrayal" if they choose to not concede the region.
6) Do the Greeks even expect the British to let them annex Cyprus at this point or is it seen as a future issue by both sides? Do the Greeks see it as inevitable that Cyprus will came under Athenian administration, and for that reason there is no need to spend political capital for it during the peace treaty?
7) Constantinople. Obviously the million drachma question at the moment as far as Greece is concerned. Did the Turks become the majority during the war, or have they just remained the plurality? Furthermore, I don't expect many Turks to have fled the city, as the presence of multiple allied armies nearby will probably be enough to convince them that they won't be immediately deported by the Greeks. Something that makes it all the more difficult for Greece to lock in Constantinople for good.
I again want to thank the creator of this expertly written timeline for the time and effort they have put into making it.
"And then there was none"
That would be... why spoilers!
Arguably that's hardly surprising...
And one notes its hardly just Alewites and Syrian Arabs...
Let me see... no comments. Besides the fact Assyrians proclaimed independence back in 1941 and it remains in limbo since then. But now the war in Europe is over and the San Fransisco conference already underway. Assyrian-Arab-Kurdish relations cannot remain in limbo they have to come to a decision...
Quite a bit more of Austria was directly controlled by the Western Allies at the time the war ended but otherwise yes.
There was quite a lot of talk immediately postwar about a Scandinavian Defence League. How it would work out...
If the legion would take ex SS soldiers no questions asked it likely would take in Russians too. The Greeks now likely have some interest in putting a noose around this guy.
The Middle East has a LOT of chickens coming to roost at the moment. The French have been playing everyone within Greater Syria to an even greater extend than OTL for the past 25 years and the British have been giving promises, often enough contradictory with each other, to everyone under the sun since the entry of Turkey in the war in 1941. Come down to it it's not just the Middle East. What about Churchill's promises to Mike Collins for a united Ireland for example?
Lets say France is lucky and in 1954 it is actually run by Charles De Gaulle. I have no doubt De Gaulle would be handling many things better like frex controlling the Pied Noirs much better. Would he be willing to give up Algeria without firing a shot? Color me unconvinced.
The Lebanese TTL actually have what is a battle hardened army, one of the regiments of the French 10 Division Infanterie Colonially was Lebanese Chasseurs. How much that actually does matter... dunno. But in OTL a generation down the line the Christian militias were crap quality wise. Here there is a core of men who'd actually seen the elephant.
They would not be at all happy with partition and likely actively fight against it. Partition being a bad idea though is a different thing from partition not happening. Which likely means you've just planted the equivalent of a second Israel in western Algeria with independent Algeria trying to capture French Algeria, likely with Soviet support... but that is a different matter is it not?
April 1945?
More seriously the photograph is from OTL. Berling's army.That's unfortunately likely...
Thanks for the good words.
In 1940 TTL its population was about ~700,000 significantly less than the 1,124,000 of OTL. I am inclined to argue this has been a good thing. Long term Athens may or may not reach its OTL population, TTL Greece is more populous but by the same token you also have Smyrna. And no matter what happens to Constantinople unless things go drastically bad from the Greek point of view it also remains a big Greek urban center. TTL so far I had the Greek population of Constantinople growing at rates similar to Cyprus between natural growth and people from Greece moving there. If anything the rate of migration into the cities will be growing post war...
Exact numbers will have to wait. Overall Greek civilian deaths during the war have been about 464,000 with close to 165,000 combat deaths. Greek and Armenian civilian deaths in Constantinople have been a further 118,000.
Back in 1940 Smyrna had 567,000 people and Thessaloniki 200,000. So Smyrna is massively larger at the moment. If there is to be a +co-capital" that is arguably Smyrna TTL not Thessaloniki. Metro system... no comment for now.
Greece got back in 1921 what it wanted perhaps even a bit more. Sazan is a possible exception and certain point of contention.
Technically Greece did get immediately in. The question how minimal Greek Monastir is TTL. The things might have been looking a good thing back in 1940... less so in 1945. At a guess it is the absolutely minimal land to have the town, its Vlach population and any Slavophones supporting Greece or deciding their parents did before 1912 and were really Greek all along.
The Greek public decidedly expects so. Hell even a lot of people withing the British Ministry of Foreign Affairs are arguing so at the moment. Realistically at a minimum Cyprus should be expecting changes towards self-government, TTL the legislative council is still around sice there was no 1931 revolt with 12 Greek, 3 Turkish and 9 British members. Reducing the British appointees or increasing the number of the elected members are not unreasonable things to expect.
As you've said before the French's meddling in Syria and the Alawite and Lebanon states being something that has existed for 20ish years at this point means that the Alawites and Lebanon probably have the nationalistic identity and a lot more pre-existing state structures that would allow them to resist and fight the Syrians. If the Syrians go for a fight in the region it could end really ugly for the Syrians. With Lebanese armies being present, I defo see Lebanon itself being very much a changed entity in its early nation building, especially if the Syrians enact a few massacres that increase national identity for the Lebanese.
This would already change a lot in the Mid East. With Israel being inevitable at this point, with Lebanon and the Alawite states being anti-arab, and Greece probably helping them, Israel probably would have a lot more leeway than otl bc they have a lot more allies, some which are a lot more accepted than others (I see France and Britain being more willing to work with Israel since Lebanon and the Alawite state) means that Israel could have their own alliance structure outside of the US.
This probably means that Israel probably won't try to ally with the Arab states for a while too, for good or for ill.
That’s actually a very good point. The Yugoslavs are likely to come down hard on the Macedonians for being pro Bulgarian during the war. Not as bad as the Albanians or Croatians will be treated but they have to know there’s a target on their back. I could definitely see a lot of Slavophones deciding that they were “Greek Macedonians” the whole time to escape the coming persecution if there’s some vote that gets held.
There'd probably be movements of the Macedonians to move to Greece in general, but with this tl I could see Macedonia going back to Bulgaria in the future if things favour the Bulgarians. If the Bulgarians are under the American camp that is. If they're under the Soviet camp I don't see them wanting to unite with the Bulgarians even though they dislike the Yugoslavs intensely.
Well Tito DID conduct a fair bit of ethnogenesis. However he was not operating in a complete vacuum. It's not as if Tito ordered 900,000 strongly nationalistic Bulgarians to switch national identity and they did overnight. But by the same token it is not as if the population that received the Bulgarian army as liberators in 1941 and had tens of thousands of men join the Bulgarian army was not self-identifying as Bulgarian to a large degree. Things were... more gray.
Oh absolutely. The whole Macedonian identity is a gray area when it comes to its history. It doesn’t help that many of its early supporters frequently flip flopped on wether they were Bulgarian or their own group. I could just see many of the people in the area using that gray area to their advantage to avoid the impending Yugoslavian crackdown. Even beyond the Monastir and it’s surrounding environments I could see Macedonians afraid of a crackdown identifying as Greeks to try and escape. And Greece would probably have a good reason to accept them since they’re going to need people to fill the empty spaces of their new Anatolian possessions.
For example I could see a group like the Torbeši viewing a Muslim tolerant Greece with a lot of empty land as a good place to emigrate to. At least the ones who viewed themselves as more Macedonian and less Turkish. They’re a relatively small group though.
Part 168
London, May 18th, 1945
The Labour party withdrew support from the national government under Winston Churchill. The British parliament would be dissolved a month later as elections, the first in a decade would be organized for early July.
Madrid, May 20th, 1945
The provisional government of the republic proclaimed a general election, the first since 1936, would be held in August 26th, 1945.
Germany, May 20th, 1945
The members of the so called "Flensburg government" were placed under arrest and the government disbanded. There was not going to be any continuation of the German government. The same day Himmler would commit suicide while in American custody.
Damascus, May 26th, 1945
Over the past ten days the demonstrations that had begun in Damascus had turned to outright fighting and had spread to Aleppo, Hama and Homs. Sunni and Druze soldiers in the Troupes Speciales had deserted en masse to the Syrian government as had most non Lebanese Christians. Now the French escalated things drastically shelling and bombing Damascus while French Senegalese troops stormed the Syrian parliament with the Syrian president Shukri Al-Quwatli and the speaker of the parliament escaping them at the last moment. But the French reaction would not be taken well by either the British or the Americans.
Setif, Algeria, May 29th, 1945
Mass demonstrations had broken out at the news of the fighting in Damascus, sufficiently inflated by Radio Cairo, and spreading to nearby Guelma. Soon things would go out of control with over 100 French settlers killed and French reprisals killing 10 times as many Arabs based on official accounts and likely closer to 6,000 people.
Syrian-Transjordan border, June 1st, 1945
Three days earlier Churchill had demanded from De Gaulle that "In order to avoid a collision between British and French forces, we request you immediately order French troops to cease fire and withdraw to their barracks" and had been promptly ignored. He had reacted by ordering British troops to intervene in Syria but the British troops were just as thinly spread as the French. It had taken general Paget, the commander of the British 9th Army, quite a bit of effort to scrap together a force and move into Syria and beyond a handful of British units the grand majority of the rest belonged to the Arab Legion. The next day Paget would enforce a ceasefire, as the French avoided to fight their British allies...
Athens, June 6th, 1945
A joint session of parliament and senate set the date of both parliamentary and senatorial elections for October 21st. Four more months should suffice to deal with demobilization and clean up electoral rolls after several years of war and half the country being occupied.
Philippines, June 10th, 1945
American forces completed the liberation of Davao.
Lebanon, June 12th, 1945
The remaining French troops in Syria retreated behind the Lebanese border. The French had grumblingly agreed to evacuate Syria but their troops remained in both Lebanon and the Alawite state. And neither De Gaulle nor anyone else in France had taken well to the British intervention, or believed there were no ulterior motives to it with the French press being up in arms against the British involvement and De Gaulle telling the British ambassador in Paris that "I recognize that we are not in a position to wage war against you, but you have betrayed France and betrayed the West. That cannot be forgotten."
Borneo, June 13th, 1945
Australian forces completed the liberation of Brunei.
Northern Ireland, June 14th, 1945
The first elections in North Ireland since 1938 took place. The results were not particularly promising for Irish hopes that Winston Churchill would hold true to his promises of unification of Ireland after the end of the war. The Unionists, openly advocating remaining part of Britain had won slightly over 63% of the vote, with the Nationalist party a distant second with 27%. While Collins continued negotiations with the government in London, the results of the election were not lookig good for Irish prospects if a plebiscite took place...
Moscow, June 18th, 1945
The staged trial of several leaders of the Polish underground begun in Moscow. The continuing complaints of the Polish government in exile since March when the leaders had been arrested by the NKVD went in vain. After all the government in exile had by now its own problems. Despite pressure from Britain and the United States after the Constantinople conference, Sikorski had refused to go back to Poland without concrete guarantees. But his deputy prime minister Stanislaw Mikolajczyk had proven more pliable and had returned to Warsaw...
San Fransisco, June 26th, 1945
The charter of the United Nations was signed.
Warsaw, June 28th, 1945
The provisional government of national unity was established. Edward Osobka-Morawski belonging to the Polish socialist party would become prime minister with Mikolajczyk and the communist Wladyslaw Gomulka as deputy prime ministers. The creation of the proviisional government had been welcomed by the western governments but Polish soldiers and civilian exiles in the west were deeply suspicious of it. The Polish army in the Balkans had ended the war close to the Czech border with a strength of 5 divisions and 93,401 men. Its numbers had already swelled to 113,000 men and were still growing as Polish prisoners of war and men forcibly conscripted by the Germans were flocking to it. But this was bringing the question on what would happen to all these men and the tens of thousands of Polish civilian refugees if they were not going to return back to Poland which for many of them appeared likely...
Britain, July 5th, 1945
The Labour party had won the elections in a landslide with 47.7% of the vote and 355 MPs. The Conservatives would be second with 36.2% and 180 seats and the Liberals third with 11.9% anf 80 seats. Clement Attlee would succeed Churchill as prime minister.
Moscow, July 6th, 1945
Iuliu Maniu refused the Soviet Order of Victory. Back in March his governent had been forced out between Soviet pressure on king Nicholas and Communist orchestrated demostrations and replaced by oe under Peter Groza. Refusing the Soviet medal was a potentially unhealthy move. But Maniu had never been accused for lack of stubborness.
Eleusis, July 10th, 1945
The destroyers Aetos, Ierax, Kriti and Chios and the submarines Papanikolis and Proteus were retired from service. With the war over there was no point to keep in service destroyers dating back to the 1st Balkan war and submarines built in the 1920s all of which had seen hard use during the war. Even some of the newer ships kept in service would likely have to be retired sooner rather that later given the wear and tear they had suffered.
New Mexico, July 16th, 1945
The earth shook and a second sun briefly shone as humanity's first nuclear weapon was detonated over the desert...
The Labour party withdrew support from the national government under Winston Churchill. The British parliament would be dissolved a month later as elections, the first in a decade would be organized for early July.
Madrid, May 20th, 1945
The provisional government of the republic proclaimed a general election, the first since 1936, would be held in August 26th, 1945.
Germany, May 20th, 1945
The members of the so called "Flensburg government" were placed under arrest and the government disbanded. There was not going to be any continuation of the German government. The same day Himmler would commit suicide while in American custody.
Damascus, May 26th, 1945
Over the past ten days the demonstrations that had begun in Damascus had turned to outright fighting and had spread to Aleppo, Hama and Homs. Sunni and Druze soldiers in the Troupes Speciales had deserted en masse to the Syrian government as had most non Lebanese Christians. Now the French escalated things drastically shelling and bombing Damascus while French Senegalese troops stormed the Syrian parliament with the Syrian president Shukri Al-Quwatli and the speaker of the parliament escaping them at the last moment. But the French reaction would not be taken well by either the British or the Americans.
Setif, Algeria, May 29th, 1945
Mass demonstrations had broken out at the news of the fighting in Damascus, sufficiently inflated by Radio Cairo, and spreading to nearby Guelma. Soon things would go out of control with over 100 French settlers killed and French reprisals killing 10 times as many Arabs based on official accounts and likely closer to 6,000 people.
Syrian-Transjordan border, June 1st, 1945
Three days earlier Churchill had demanded from De Gaulle that "In order to avoid a collision between British and French forces, we request you immediately order French troops to cease fire and withdraw to their barracks" and had been promptly ignored. He had reacted by ordering British troops to intervene in Syria but the British troops were just as thinly spread as the French. It had taken general Paget, the commander of the British 9th Army, quite a bit of effort to scrap together a force and move into Syria and beyond a handful of British units the grand majority of the rest belonged to the Arab Legion. The next day Paget would enforce a ceasefire, as the French avoided to fight their British allies...
Athens, June 6th, 1945
A joint session of parliament and senate set the date of both parliamentary and senatorial elections for October 21st. Four more months should suffice to deal with demobilization and clean up electoral rolls after several years of war and half the country being occupied.
Philippines, June 10th, 1945
American forces completed the liberation of Davao.
Lebanon, June 12th, 1945
The remaining French troops in Syria retreated behind the Lebanese border. The French had grumblingly agreed to evacuate Syria but their troops remained in both Lebanon and the Alawite state. And neither De Gaulle nor anyone else in France had taken well to the British intervention, or believed there were no ulterior motives to it with the French press being up in arms against the British involvement and De Gaulle telling the British ambassador in Paris that "I recognize that we are not in a position to wage war against you, but you have betrayed France and betrayed the West. That cannot be forgotten."
Borneo, June 13th, 1945
Australian forces completed the liberation of Brunei.
Northern Ireland, June 14th, 1945
The first elections in North Ireland since 1938 took place. The results were not particularly promising for Irish hopes that Winston Churchill would hold true to his promises of unification of Ireland after the end of the war. The Unionists, openly advocating remaining part of Britain had won slightly over 63% of the vote, with the Nationalist party a distant second with 27%. While Collins continued negotiations with the government in London, the results of the election were not lookig good for Irish prospects if a plebiscite took place...
Moscow, June 18th, 1945
The staged trial of several leaders of the Polish underground begun in Moscow. The continuing complaints of the Polish government in exile since March when the leaders had been arrested by the NKVD went in vain. After all the government in exile had by now its own problems. Despite pressure from Britain and the United States after the Constantinople conference, Sikorski had refused to go back to Poland without concrete guarantees. But his deputy prime minister Stanislaw Mikolajczyk had proven more pliable and had returned to Warsaw...
San Fransisco, June 26th, 1945
The charter of the United Nations was signed.
Warsaw, June 28th, 1945
The provisional government of national unity was established. Edward Osobka-Morawski belonging to the Polish socialist party would become prime minister with Mikolajczyk and the communist Wladyslaw Gomulka as deputy prime ministers. The creation of the proviisional government had been welcomed by the western governments but Polish soldiers and civilian exiles in the west were deeply suspicious of it. The Polish army in the Balkans had ended the war close to the Czech border with a strength of 5 divisions and 93,401 men. Its numbers had already swelled to 113,000 men and were still growing as Polish prisoners of war and men forcibly conscripted by the Germans were flocking to it. But this was bringing the question on what would happen to all these men and the tens of thousands of Polish civilian refugees if they were not going to return back to Poland which for many of them appeared likely...
Britain, July 5th, 1945
The Labour party had won the elections in a landslide with 47.7% of the vote and 355 MPs. The Conservatives would be second with 36.2% and 180 seats and the Liberals third with 11.9% anf 80 seats. Clement Attlee would succeed Churchill as prime minister.
Moscow, July 6th, 1945
Iuliu Maniu refused the Soviet Order of Victory. Back in March his governent had been forced out between Soviet pressure on king Nicholas and Communist orchestrated demostrations and replaced by oe under Peter Groza. Refusing the Soviet medal was a potentially unhealthy move. But Maniu had never been accused for lack of stubborness.
Eleusis, July 10th, 1945
The destroyers Aetos, Ierax, Kriti and Chios and the submarines Papanikolis and Proteus were retired from service. With the war over there was no point to keep in service destroyers dating back to the 1st Balkan war and submarines built in the 1920s all of which had seen hard use during the war. Even some of the newer ships kept in service would likely have to be retired sooner rather that later given the wear and tear they had suffered.
New Mexico, July 16th, 1945
The earth shook and a second sun briefly shone as humanity's first nuclear weapon was detonated over the desert...
Yeah so this is just mostly from otl, other than the Greek ships being in Anatolia.
There will be no peace in the Mid East isn't it? It is as per otl, but I really wonder what the hell is the Alawite state doing rn. Considering that it has been a thing for 20ish years I'd expect that the Alawites would have a lot to say about Syrian occupation, especially as Latakia and Iskenderun are nominally under the Alawite state before all this happened. I hope we see an Alawite revolt as the Syrians attempt to consolidate their new state. That would be an interesting divergence from otl...
And I tought that was going to be per district - making a smaller Northern Ireland overall
I'm just surprised the Druze went with the Sunni Syrians on this one tbh, I would've thought that there would be animosity between the two groups
Unfortunately it does seem France might back Soviet claims as a way to get even with the UK for this.
That is also true, but I think it is as per otl and the fact that they want the French out more than anything probably contributed to it, even if the two groups dislike each other.
I think Lascaris wants a Syrian independence that is quite close to otl for now. But having no mention of the Alawites is a bit disappointing. At least we could see the Druze collaborating...
Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps France will back Greco-American designs on Cyprus as a result, where the Brits would hate the French for doing so but not jeopardising the united front of the WAllies.
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I mean the Alawites aren’t specifically named but it does say the French troops remain in the Alawite state so I’m assuming they stayed loyal but neutral. The Druze and Non Lebanese Christian’s we’re big supporters of Syrian nationalism OTL. I’m curious if the eventual withdrawal from Lebanon and the Alewite state happens in this timeline. I could see France making a push to keep both in their sphere. And both have reason to stay with the hypothetical mega Hashemite kingdom on the horizon.
That is true. I'm guessing that there's no Latakia incident too, but thing is the push between the Syrian want to have a connection to the sea and the Alawite want for independence will be an important point of convergence for Middle East politics for the foreseeable future, which is why I hope we see more from the Alawites.
Ooof, France is reeling from a perceived betrayal. I think the French have an even more important reason to hold keep Lebanon and the Alawite State in their zone of influence. With Britain being untrustworthy, they might get closer to Greece to increase their power projection ability in the eastern Mediterranean. The main question is what borders Lebanon will have.
One can hope that one of them is renamed Calypso and continues her career with new adventures.
One can hope that one of them is renamed Calypso and continues her career with new adventures.
One potential result of this timeline is a more complete Israeli victory in 48. This may very well kean no Palestinian issue as an Israrli problem , and Israeli control of the region between the Jordan amd the sea. There will still be probably a couple of rounds of arab-israeli interstate wars, but once those are resolved the dynamics of the region will be diffrent.
Half of it is just that Pan-Arab ideology would be more thoroughly discredited if the Alawite state and Lebanon doesn't join in, the other half is that Israel could just win more thoroughly due to syria either having to fight lakatia and lebanon or lakatia and lebanon giving Israel aid as their defense posture probably would be a mutual one.
This is the million dollar question for the regions political stability I think. Because as is Lebanon is set up for an inevitable conflict between its Christian and Muslim populations. A conflict that could become a proxy war between the potential pan Arab power and Israel/the Alawite state/others. I think there were some population movements mentioned but I don’t know how significant those were overall. I also don’t know if Lebanons Muslim population is at all changed in its disposition from otl.
That said what makes up OTL South Lebanon is highly Muslim and would give Syria/the Hashemites access to the Mediterranean. Maybe a voluntary population swap as well?
That said I’m not sure how that would peaceably come about. The best bet would probably be for France, the English, and the US to work that out now but considering France is feeling pretty betrayed right now that’s hard to see without large concessions to cool their anger over Syria.