One would say that they are massively overestimating the influence the Soviets have on the Western Allies in general and over Greece specifically , especially in the aftermath of the Anatolian controversy . There is no way the WAllies would see any Soviet diplomatic intervention on the Bulgarian side as anything other than them trying to steal gains made by western blood .
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
With the Soviets smashing themselves against the Salpa line, and the casualties present are horrific indeed for most armies. I have no doubt that the Soviets would be able to shoulder the casualties (8.7 mil military deaths occurred in WWII in the Soviet union) but I would be very surprised if this changes nothing in places like Poland and the such. Frankly with the Soviets being a lot more stretched out I could see changes in the Balkans and Poland.
Ooh the Greeks helping the Poles are definitely a good thing.
For the Greeks to do such a thing despite the British and Americans not doing so in otl I'd think the Soviets would've made a similar overture to the allies to not help the uprising, so I'd imagine Stalin to be quite angry about this development. Not that he can do anything about it, but I'd imagine that it'd negatively affect Greco-Soviet relations post war.
Also if we get a west vs east Poland I hope Germany retains Pomerania while they lose Silesia.
Seeing the Chetniks getting back in the action is good indeed, and they're getting back to serbia soon with Veles being in the middle of North Macedonia.
Hmm, I really do wonder if the Soviets wouldn't move as fast in the Polish front due to their focus on the Finns and Romanians.
I do wonder what the WAllies gain from being less duplicitous tho. Perhaps its bc Poland is a lot more important in this sense, and they don't really care about romania?
Bulgaria not wanting unconditional surrender is quite detrimental to it, I hope Muraviev would understand that unconditional surrender is less detrimental to Bulgaria than being under the heel of the Soviets.
And its not like he would have any choice anyways, with the Greeks steadily marching into Bulgaria.
Perhaps. I do think Bulgaria really doesn't want to negotiate with Greece, but the Prime Minister rn is more of a realist compared to the other presidents. I'm pretty sure that if Bulgaria is to become an ally Greece could let Bulgaria be without any territory changes in the Greco-Bulgarian border and probably southern Dobruja, especially when the Soviets are marching there. They're not getting North Macedonia tho.
I think a case can be made for what is today the Western Pomeranian Voivodeship. That’s said there’s no way the Germans keep any of the other parts of what became Polish Pomerania. And unfortunately I do find it unlikely that that Soviet get distracted enough to allow for a Western Poland. I’d love if my Grandfather got to go home and see a free Krakow again in this world instead of being forced into exile. But logistically unless the Soviets decide to just stop their March west and get completely distracted by the Finnish and Balkan side shows I don’t see it happening because they’re already so damn close.
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I get the feeling that this is the kind of spot the Greeks might not want to give up again after the war...
I do want to ask if that was originally 'in the script' for this chapter or if the discussion tipped things so to speak, the relationship between Greece and Poland throughout the war has been pretty interesting the see develop- makes me wonder what other butterflies develop as a result.
I'm pretty sure that between this and Finland that the soviets won't be able to march west nearly as fast. A smaller east Germany (if any) feels likelier now, I doubt it'll be the Soviets raising the flag in Berlin this time around anyway.
It's a little funny in a morbid way that the Romanians have been trying to deal with the west, while the Bulgarians have been trying to cut a deal with the Soviets.
Maybe the free city of Krakow and its environs will rise again if the Czechs and/or Slovaks manage to slip the iron curtain and things start falling out with the Soviets? I doubt a Germany-esque split of Poland is feasible but it would be neat if there was a sliver of a free Poland.
*Edit*
Also here's a map with some broader speculation on my part for once the immediate peace treaties are settled for fun, a lot of it is likely to be wildly inaccurate though.
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Serpent
Banned
I would say that, I can see a lot of the patriotic Poles of the Free Polish Corps would end up settling in Greece now, more than likely in Anatolia, (and the lands of Northern Greece that they've helped liberate), since there will be sparelier populated lands there after the war's end, Greece could encourage them to settle there.
So with this commitment to support the Warsaw rising and the freedom of Poland, plus the very strained relationship between Greece and the Soviet Union, to the Poles ITTL Greece would seem like the best possible ally, the only sizable power that gives a damn about them and their homeland and could potentially assist them in the future.
On the top of previous ITTL deeper cooperation between Poland and Greece on various fields, including military production etc
While the rest of the Wallies, including France, might just as well throw them under the bus again...
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wouldn't the greek gain in Southwestern N. Macedonia be bigger since they had been given Monastir/Bitola earlier or am I misremembering?
One territorial item on which I would go against what is the consensus is the erstwhile Biga Sanjak. IMO most of it, except whichever strategic points around the straights will be soviet bases/international territory will go to Greece. The WAllies would turn the entire area to the Greeks if it were up to them, the Soviets don't care much about anything beyond the coasts, and its an easy and significant gain to give the Greeks to help them swallow whatever concessions around the Straits that will be made to the Soviets by the WAllies as a whole.
Vaeius, does Lascaris have you locked up in his basement making maps? Blink once for yes and we’ll send help. Seriously though your output is astounding. I appreciate it immensely. I also love the idea for Krakow.
I do have a hot take that disagrees with your map though. I don’t think Italy loses anything in Europe they had before 1925. Fiume, Zara, various Dalmatian Islands, along with the Julian March stay Italian because they’re already Italian in population and the Italians are major figures in the allies TTL. I mean I’m not sure about the numbers but there might be more Italians fighting on the Balkan front than there are Yugoslavians. I could even see them keeping some of Libya since there were over 100,000 there OTL and we’re large portions of Benghazi and Tripoli. At least a referendum, which they may win as they had some local support.
Assuming there’s no free Poland to return to it feels almost certain. Even with your amazing idea for a free Krakow there’s like to be so many exiled poles and likely refugees that I still expect a Polish quarter.
I said it before and I’ll say it again. Pierogis and Tzatziki is something I didn’t realize I needed to try mixing before this timeline lol.
Is that the widely held assumption? I don’t think it goes to them immediately but that’s because it’s almost assured if they have the already scheduled referendum in a few years.
Most speculative maps have it still be part of an international Constantinople but IMO that will be solved far before the fate of the city itself is fully wrapped up.
They already have Monastir, I just marked it pretty small on that map.
I think in the long run it'll end up as part of Greece, I have doubts on how long the UN mandate there will last. In the mid term the more inland areas wouldn't be impossible for Greece to argue for I'd think. But that's probably an issue to be decided after the war, maybe along with the Cyprus question.
To be honest, at this point it's mostly just relatively small tweaks to maps I already made months ago as the story goes along and I bring more real world considerations into account.
You raise fair points on Italy, but I will say that were still a major axis power I expect at least some losses in Europe to Yugoslavia- Fiume and select islands could feasibly stay as Italian if it goes to a referendum, I see them getting off easier than otl by a wide margin at least.
I doubt they'd be allowed to keep any colonies in anything but a transitory status through.
A 'Little Krakow/Warsaw' in the Queen of Cities just sounds neat doesn't it?
If you manage to find or put together a recipe let me know that sounds amazing.
I’ll admit that Libya is more out there but I could see it happening in recompense if they do lose something to Yugoslavia. But honestly considering they’re the only Avis power to not only surrender early but flip sides relatively early and participate in the liberation of Europe I could see them remaining almost completely untouched.
Counterpoint is I can see the Bulgarians being punished for “dragging the conflict out needlessly” in the eyes of the WAllies. Particularly if an unfriendly government takes charge.
It really does. I love the idea of a free Krakow state and “Little Warsaw” being jokingly called “Free Warsaw” among the Poles. I could see the two being very intertwined culturally despite the distance being the two centers of Polish culture on this side of the iron curtain.
Exclusive city twinning of Constantinople and Warsaw like Paris and Rome ?
Tbf I think the Germans would be able to keep all of Pomerania if the WAllies get to it: the borders are probably defined by where the armies are by the end of the war.
I'm not sure how distracted the Soviets would be, but I think they would have to get through Hungary at the very least, not to mention occupying places like Hungary and Austria and Czechoslovakia would take time and effort, and Finland would be terrible to go through too, especially when the Finns are going to fight hard in the salpa Line.
I do agree that Poland being totally free would be too optimistic. I could see pieces of Poland being ran by the democratic poles though, like perhaps Silesia or whatever the WAllies could get to before the two armies met each other in the end of WWII.
We could have a Berlin situation in Poland instead, with parts of Warsaw or Krakow being under WAllies control, which would be pretty interesting.
I wonder what the pink bit west of Czechia is, and I think Czechoslovakia should still be present post war, and they've different colours in your map, which is pretty weird. Other than agreeing with Duke of Orlando (I don't see them retaining the bits of Slovenia and Croatia that was held by the Italians (and tbf I think Slovenia would take over the bits that Croatia held in otl due to the civil war and Croatia probably being part of Communist Yugoslavia), but I do agree that Yugoslavia probably would look like that if there was no civil war.
Tbf ittl Slovenia would be quite interesting in general. They'd basically be a western controlled part of Yugoslavia that has no control over the region and would have a lot of American and Italian influence compared to the other Yugoslavias. You could say that it's like Bangladesh when it was part of Pakistan, but considering that they were part of Europe I don't think they will be as ill treated as Bangladesh ittl.
Also I think Prussia's probably going to be split like otl, with Konigsberg being part of Russia so they could have their warm water port. I don't see things going differently than otl in that place unless the poles are democratic (but I could see the poles claim Konigsberg post war).
I'm also quite unsure about the lines in the ME. It is just as plausible that Abdullah gets nothing in Iraq and he only has Jordan as per otl. And Assyria may or may not pop up as a coherent state, which I could see occur if Iran props them up to prevent Kurdish nationalists in their country from inciting rebellion to join Kurdistan.
Finally Armenia's borders aren't like this at all, they're already a lot bigger than otl due to their control of nagorno-karabakh and Nakhchivan, not to mention additional lands that're taken from the Turks.
I think even if canakkale is fully occupied and colonised by the Soviets with Russians (which I think is plausible considering how they dealt with Prussia: Russia can easily say that canakkale has never been part of turkey) I think the Russians would rather be an autonomous province under Greek control than be under Turkish control. I think it's the same with Uskudar if it is colonised by the Russians.
I think we'd see the current president be the one who does the peace negotiations, and considering the next few months (probably some kind of communist meddling) I think the Bulgars would have some border territories be taken to ensure if things go super bad the Greeks could defend from their own borders.
I think Bulgaria would still keep southern dorubja though. Romania doesn't exactly want southern dorubja, especially when the Romanians were never a majority in the region and the ones who were moved in have already been exchanged with Bulgarians in Northern Dobruja.
Especially if Warsaw is WAllies controlled...
Serpent
Banned
Exactly, I've been saying that all along, it's just crazy strategically wise having this large area in the middle of Greece like an enclave...
You disregard a critical aspect : the Allies actually did retreat from a significant chunk of Germany to respect pre-agreed upon occupation zones, and that wouldn't change in that regard. However, the Soviets may have to trade something to get their occupation zones this time; and most nations didn't turn communist immediately post WWII but within the five years that followed, once the borders already were settled. While Czechoslovakia can be split upon Czech-Slovak lines, there is no reason for a separate Polish state to be formed by the US at the end of WWII unless they're deliberately picking a fight with Moscow.
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Time for obligatory map detailing the various proposals considered for Germany's eastern border.
In Otl Breslau and Lwow were linked. If Poland lost the latter it would gain the former - so if it kept Lwow Germany would keep Breslau.
More broadly speaking, the more Poland keeps I'm the east the less territory it would be compensated with in Germany. Broadly speaking the Otl priorities were to remove East Prussia, gain a sizable coast line, and shorten the length of the border with Germany.
It is too soon to know how the cards will fall in respect to post war Poland, but if I had to guess we may see Germany keeping areas A & B on the map, with Poland keeping Lwow, gaining all of Eadt Prussia & possibly keeping Grodno.
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In Otl Breslau and Lwow were linked. If Poland lost the latter it would gain the former - so if it kept Lwow Germany would keep Breslau.
More broadly speaking, the more Poland keeps I'm the east the less territory it would be compensated with in Germany. Broadly speaking the Otl priorities were to remove East Prussia, gain a sizable coast line, and shorten the length of the border with Germany.
It is too soon to know how the cards will fall in respect to post war Poland, but if I had to guess we may see Germany keeping areas A & B on the map, with Poland keeping Lwow, gaining all of Eadt Prussia & possibly keeping Grodno.
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Well the pilots getting shot down for their cargo to end up in German hands would likely prefer it did not.
It is within the realm of possibility. Of course the question is how strong a hold on the army Antonescu has and how much he marginalized Codreanu in the previous years. One thing is certain, the bastard was not an idiot like Horia Sima.
One would had expected Italy to had been the example both on OTL and TTL. But rational strategy and Germany is the same phrase in this period...
Margarethe II, which the Germans did not initiate despite explicit knowledge the Romanians the Romanians were negotiating an armistice because Hitler decided to take up Antonescu on his word that if the Germans kept up support for Romania he would fight on. Although to be fair Antonescu did get cold feet on switching sides despite negotiating with the Soviets and even getting a good deal.
Not their entire plan but from the Bulgarian point of view what are their options? The Western Allies are not much in a mood to negotiate. It is the second time in a generation Britain and France were trying to make amends towards Bulgaria and Bulgaria attacked them and fought hard against them. For Greece and Yugoslavia the third time with a harsh occupation of much of their territory and war crimes for icing on the cake. They'll accept an unconditional armistice and that's about it, with Bulgaria... and the populations that collaborated with it in Greece and particularly Yugoslavia at the mercy of the victors. Russia has been the traditional protector of Bulgaria on the other hand, one Bulgaria has not directly fought in both world wars. Trying to get it to intercede to save Bulgaria from the worst...
At a fair guess unlikely on both counts.
Some will. Now were else downed Greeks would find around more Greeks in Warsaw...?
Shorta kinda so. One can picture the scene.
"Dear Greece and Yugoslavia we want peace!"
"Are you surrendering unconditionally?"
"Err about that we were hoping of keeping our outlet to the sea. Everything between Florina and Skopje too too. As you know... hey why your tanks start moving again? We thought we were talking peace here!"
There is that napkin from Tehran but that's the extend of likely Soviet diplomatic influence...
I would question the "a lot more stressed" part. Back in 1941 the Soviets took about a quarter million or so fewer casualties compared to OTL in Ukraine between the Romanians being weaker from the 1940 war for Moldavia and the Germans starting the campaign with fewer tanks due to earlier losses in Poland, France and Greece. That quarter million, plus weakening even more the Soviet Far East and the OTL forces in Iran and the Turkish border mostly accounted for the Soviet Transcaucasus front. If anything the Soviets start the Finnish offensive a few weeks late but relatively stronger. Now at some point the men and tanks taken away from the Far East will need to return but that's for later. It's not as if the Japanese are going to attack out of Manchuria because the Soviets have 600,000 instead of 750,000 men there...
The British and the Americans sent the first flights to supply Warsaw on the same date. TTL airfields in north Greece are somewhat closer than Italy and England...
So the Greeks are doing what their British and American masters are doing. Nothing to write home about. Stalin being Stalin won't believe the Greeks are any short of independent player...
How will Allied armies reach Poland. If it's solely AK controlled territory Stalin is fully capable of sending the tanks over on a flimsy excuse or other. "not letting the Red army cross to continue the advance against the Hitlerites is proof of collaboration with them!"
We have not seen the Chetniks doing anything much... yet.
Not unlikely but ultimately it is the big three who decide what will happen.
That... depends. For example there has been a bunch of Polish engineers like Pulawski working in Greece since 1939. They hope of course to return to Poland post-war... but most wouldn't be exactly happy to do so if Poland is a Soviet satellite...
That's not unlikely. Britain had the Polish resettlement corps. Greece might need something similar given the numbers of Poles in the country since 1940. At least some would prefer Greece for leaving for Britain or Australia and Canada. If anything we are talking about tens of thousands of young men. At least a fraction must have gotten girlfriends and wives...
Greece does npt have reason not to keep... proper relations with the Soviets here. Neither the Greeks nor the Soviets acted outright hostile. As seen in Soviet occupation forces letting the Greeks recover the hidden Sumela monastery relics, where it doesn't cost them anything the Soviets are not beyond acting friendly...
Objectively the Greeks are not doing much more. But by the same token they cannot be accused of betraying Poland unlike say Britain...
Now that you mention it this is from something I wrote in Greek that may or may not happen in Lost Monkeys but...
"their grandchildren like Kovalski, remember they are Poles in anniversaries, or when they eat their grandma's pierogi and kielbasha. But for their grandparents they said they said that the were all devout Catholics, devout anti-communists and devout right-wingers, and some things in Greece are hard to change."
The assumption is that it is as small as possible, both Greeks and Yugoslavs are commited on this but both have good reason to keep the territory changing hands ar a minimum.
The Soviets would like some defensive depth and prefferably a air base or ten as well...
I deny everything!
The Yugoslavs are likely to be taking compensations somewhere. Now on the other hand Italy's reputation IS somewhat better.
You can fill them with feta I'm certain...
Why not Smyrna. After all when all is said and done this is a TL about Smyrna...
That is indeed likely to depend about what happens to the Polish eastern border. At TTL Tehran this was tentantively set at Curzon line B. But tentantively is the operating word here and the border is likely to be subject to further negotiation...
With how Balbo has lived longer than OTL and turned his coat to the Allies, what would be a cursed, if plausible, image in TTL's 1950s could be Italian PM or President Italo Balbo meeting with Japanese PM Nobusuke Kishi.