Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
Would it be silly to conceive that, after the trick the Turks and Soviets pulled in the Straits areas under the Greeks' nose, the Allies get them a taste of their own medicine, and provide more 'consistent' support to the insurgents in Warsaw ?
Well, either it or his troops may be found in need of a new commandant due to he would probably be on leave due to a rather terminal lead poisoning case...
Yeah I think most of the Nazis know they're finished at this point, the noose is tightening and things aren't going well for them. At all.
hmm its as per otl, except Rommel is the one leading the defense... I wonder how this would end for Rommel, with him being caught out by the allies, I definitely could see him surrender and be kept as a important POW by the allies. Hell, maybe we'd get a rebel German army, although I'm not sure how that would work.
In any case Rommel's likely to be alive ittl, which is interesting enough on its own.
ooh finlandisation doesn't exist ittl does it? A Finnish SSR would be very interesting, especially if the Soviets acquiesce to give Karelia to the Finnish SSR much like how Poland got Pomerania in otl especially if they're taking cities like Viipuri.
Finland would also be one of the first nations to just move to leave the USSR, considering their history with the Russians and the USSR. It'd be very interesting to see how Finland develops ittl.
PS would 'Finlandisation' be called 'Swedenisation' ittl? Considering where Sweden is I think they'd be the best candidate to do so, and they have been neutral for quite a while already.
Bulgaria goes down, and that means we'd probably see American-led Bulgaria... considering where the frontlines are the Greeks can easily occupy the space while the Soviets aren't even close to touching Romania yet, and the frontlines are going to shift there...
It'd be a mad dash to occupy Bulgaria and strike at Romania's underbelly before the Soviets get there, considering how there was no significant Soviet presence before late August.
I think Bulgaria and maybe Romania would be where the Soviets get a taste of their own medicine first...
Hopefully we'd see Pomeranian landings and have that bit be part of Germany instead of it being part of Poland.
I still do feel people are jumping to conclusions a bit for Finland. Essentially, what prevented its transformation into a SSR in OTL is that it managed to stop the OTL version of the offensive that is about to begin. They might fail to do so ITTL or repeat the feat. Lets see how it plays out.
On the rest of the update, broadly speaking it does feel that the WAllies' advance relative to the Soviets compared to OTL is slowly but surely increasing. It would be interesting to see the long-term post-war consequences. IMO the big development of the last update is Bulgaria finally understanding that it needs to find a way out. Of course, it unfortunately appears that it is also under the same kind of delusion then Hungary was in OTL (and might be in ITTL further down the line when the Allies will get closer to its borders and it will also understand it need to find a way out) regarding how understanding the Allies will be when it comes to the territories Germany let them annex and their hopes that they might keep some... Hopefully, they will accept reality quickly enough, for both the Allied cause as a whole and for Bulgaria's own sake.
On a broader note, one thing I am kinda curious about how the events of this TL have changed how events long before the POD. I imagine the perception of the Ottoman Empire broadly speaking (as in its whole history) will be more negative outside of Turkey and academia, especially in the West, and that 1453 will be an even more politically sensitive, landmine of a topic to handle than in OTL.
On the rest of the update, broadly speaking it does feel that the WAllies' advance relative to the Soviets compared to OTL is slowly but surely increasing. It would be interesting to see the long-term post-war consequences. IMO the big development of the last update is Bulgaria finally understanding that it needs to find a way out. Of course, it unfortunately appears that it is also under the same kind of delusion then Hungary was in OTL (and might be in ITTL further down the line when the Allies will get closer to its borders and it will also understand it need to find a way out) regarding how understanding the Allies will be when it comes to the territories Germany let them annex and their hopes that they might keep some... Hopefully, they will accept reality quickly enough, for both the Allied cause as a whole and for Bulgaria's own sake.
On a broader note, one thing I am kinda curious about how the events of this TL have changed how events long before the POD. I imagine the perception of the Ottoman Empire broadly speaking (as in its whole history) will be more negative outside of Turkey and academia, especially in the West, and that 1453 will be an even more politically sensitive, landmine of a topic to handle than in OTL.
Bulgaria believing that they have any chance at all to keep lands they annexed during the war is peak delusion . The kind of delusion that makes your neighbors upset and your lands partitioned ...
And the non-communist elements of the Fatherland Front installed in Sofia,
Serpent
Banned
That's actually a feasible scenario, both the Wallies and the Germans would encourage it ironically...
I do wonder how a weaker soviet eastern bloc is going to affect the USSR. Less client states is less money and military focus spread abroad. Maybe pragmatic minds will understand that it would be better to focus development instead of maintaining an iron curtain
Maybe, but I am skeptical. At this the USSR's ideology includes an all but religious faith in the triumph of Communism and that's bound to color their decision-making. The supporters of stopping to pursue worldwide revolution for the time being only barely prevailed in the early 1920's, when this would have meant the USSR being more or less stuck in a death match with the rest of the world, with assured defeat at the end of the road.
Them not going for Communism's worldwide triumph, or at least to seek to push Communism significantly through military muscles, after a massive victory that leave them one of the world's only two superpowers and with at least a decently sized sphere of influence? It would be fairly out of character IMO...
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They technically arent wrong on that... they got to keep Southern Dobrudja OTL and I dont see why not TTL. Of course that is most definetly not what they are hoping for.
I have to agree with some of the others, the idea that the Soviets are going to get through the Salpa line in two weeks seems delusional to me. It took them longer than that to get to where they are against worse defenses. Plus the Finns apparently at least got Panzerfausts even if they don’t have German reinforcements. The Soviets slamming their head repeatedly against the Salpa line strikes me as a great way to lose enough men for the Finns to counter attack, not a way to successfully take Helsinki.
That being said even if the Soviets do pull this off and the Finn’s look like they’re about to collapse, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Swedish counter invasion try to grab as much of Finland at possible. The Alands at a minimum, but northern Finland as well seems possible.
As for Bulgaria, hoping to keep anything but Southern Dobruja is delusional to the extreme. The tides have obviously completely turned. You aren’t keeping anything in the south, and are in all likelihood going to lose land unless they surrender immediately.
I’m curious what’s going to happen to Rommel. I think he’s still going to end up killing himself to save his family. But I could see him being a major figure in post war Germany if he survives. I doubt he leads a “free German army” if he’s captured/surrenders though. Sure he has the respect of folks in the British war department but giving him that much political and military power when you don’t have to seems unlikely. Who knows though.
That being said even if the Soviets do pull this off and the Finn’s look like they’re about to collapse, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Swedish counter invasion try to grab as much of Finland at possible. The Alands at a minimum, but northern Finland as well seems possible.
As for Bulgaria, hoping to keep anything but Southern Dobruja is delusional to the extreme. The tides have obviously completely turned. You aren’t keeping anything in the south, and are in all likelihood going to lose land unless they surrender immediately.
I’m curious what’s going to happen to Rommel. I think he’s still going to end up killing himself to save his family. But I could see him being a major figure in post war Germany if he survives. I doubt he leads a “free German army” if he’s captured/surrenders though. Sure he has the respect of folks in the British war department but giving him that much political and military power when you don’t have to seems unlikely. Who knows though.
Yeah I don't really see the Soviets breaking Salpa without taking absolutely Pyrrhic casualties that may necessitate shifting focus from other more critical fronts, a subsequent Finnish counter attack down to Viipuri would be fun. At that point the Soviets might well just begrudgingly accept status quo ante bellum rather than have to shift more resources away from the main theater, not to mention the western allies...
Swedish Aland seems reasonable in the face of the worst case.
I think even Southern Dobruja is pushing it with the Greek front being as active as it is, especially if Romania flips first.
I'm waiting to see what Romania manages here, especially since Prince Michael was Princess ttl if I remember right.
I could see to compensate for not reaching as far in the Balkans/Eastern Europe that maybe (hard maybe), the soviets allow some Baltic peoples republics rather than direct incorporation to the USSR like otl. Maybe Prussia becomes a soviet satellite if the wallies advance far enough that a soviet East Germany becomes infeasible-from what I understand the western allies were actually the ones more interested in the destruction of Prussia as a concept than Stalin though that's reaching a bit I admit.
I will say that OTL one of the big hang ups in Bulgarias surrender was they wanted to remain neutral, not flip sides. They were in the process of negotiating when Prince Michaels coup accorded and essentially moved the Soviets front line into northern Bulgaria.
Assume “Princess Michelle’s” (I don’t remember her actual alt timeline name) coup isn’t a thing, Bulgaria can likely negotiate for Southern Dobruja in exchange for properly flipping. Even if they don’t I’m not sure they’re forced to give it back once the Cold War lines start to get drawn. That said the longer they have delusions of grandeur about keeping any land in Greece or Yugoslavia, the more likely it is they keep nothing or lose land
It depends on if Romania is on which side methinks. If Romania is in the Soviet sphere then losing the region is possible, but if Romania is part of the American sphere southern dorubja could still be Bulgarian.
Tbf I'd like to see them fail just to see the differences between otl and ittl. As I've said before there's a solid chance Karelia would be given to Finland and that would be interesting in its own right.
Considering the starting position of the Americans ittl yeah the Balkans would have a lot more contested, but frankly unless something big changes I don't see Poland not falling into Soviet influence and a march into berlin for example. Hell, with Romania and Bulgaria switching sides sooner I'd think that the Soviet thrust into Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia wouldn't be fiercer than otl.
Turkey would be seen as a lot more dangerous than otl, from the Ottoman empire allowing the CUP to commit genocide and the genocide that's definitely happening within Ionia I'd think they will seen in a negative light.
Denying the Armenian and Assyrian genocides would be seen in a very negative light ittl.
I think considering that the Romanian front would be stopped soon whether by the WAllies armies moving into Wallachia or the Soviets breaking through Moldavia (with no occupation duties) they can focus on Finland and push straight to Germany and Hungary and have more resources to deal with the Finns.
Also a Finnish SSR is interesting in its own right, and would allow the WAllies to take over more of Germany.
I think Southern Dobruja would be Bulgarian if they both flip around the same time, and the territory is ceded to Bulgaria by Romania in 1940 anyways. Unless Romania gets occupied by the Soviets with Dobruja also being occupied by the Soviets while the WAllies occupy Bulgaria only Southern Dobruja probably would stay Bulgarian. It was done by a proper treaty and both sides were happy with the treaty. If Romania was forced to take it back I could see a referendum giving the region back to Bulgaria soonish.
I don't think we'd see a Germanic Prussia post WWII, I think everyone was okay with the destruction of it. Maybe we'd see a scenario where Kaliningrad is created to 'become the model SSR where everyone lived together in peace and harmony' but a name change and the moving away of a lot of Germans would be inevitable at this point.
tbf I've no idea how things would go here ittl. Unlike otl where there's no pressure exerted on the Bulgars, ittl the boots on the ground basically have the Greeks being able to take it by force if the Bulgarians don't give up. I think the Bulgarians would give up a lot more easily than otl for this reason alone. I definitely can see the Romanians being ok with not taking southern dobruja back too considering the reaction of the Romanians when they lost the reigon.
Poland wasn’t turned into an SSR IOTL, so it would most likely be a Finnish Democratic Republic installed after a rigged election or two.
with soviet supervision and multiple regiments watching the proceedings, yes indeed...