Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Duke of Orlando]

If we’re giving the Greeks random islands in the Mediterranean, let’s at least give them ones with a decent economy and the potential for a loyal local population. Let’s looks at Djerba and/or the Kerkennah islands. Djerba has a large Jewish population currently and a decent agricultural sector. It is almost right next to the Tunisian mainland though which is a downside. The Kerkennah islands are farther offshore and has sponges nearby which is a plus, it also has a very small population. Technically they’re both French but I see no reason a deal couldn’t be worked out for some colonial islands post war.

Personally I don’t see either happening unless the Greeks/British/US/TTL’s NATO really wants Greece to be the protector of the Eastern Mediterranean or some such. Giving them base locations like these makes sense in that scenario.

 

[Serpent]

Exactly..not only that but it will strain the future italo-greco relations for no gain at all

Leaving the IMMENSE GAIN in terms of the expansion of the Hellenic EEZ aside, because that cannot be factored into the decision making process in the immediate aftermath of WWII, at least that much, because EEZ (fossil fuel) exploitation isn't yet that relevant, these 4 islands still retain huge strategic significance for Greece, whether for the obvious military purposes, but also for economic reasons, ranging from fishing rights into a whole new area, down to the potential of these islands as resupply stations for Greek mercantile shipping and beyond.

 

[emperor joe]

Is there any oil or gas in the area?

 

[Serpent]

If we’re giving the Greeks random islands in the Mediterranean, let’s at least give them ones with a decent economy and the potential for a loyal local population. Let’s looks at Djerba and/or the Kerkennah islands. Djerba has a large Jewish population currently and a decent agricultural sector. It is almost right next to the Tunisian mainland though which is a downside. The Kerkennah islands are farther offshore and has sponges nearby which is a plus, it also has a very small population. Technically they’re both French but I see no reason a deal couldn’t be worked out for some colonial islands post war.

Personally I don’t see either happening unless the Greeks/British/US/TTL’s NATO really wants Greece to be the protector of the Eastern Mediterranean or some such. Giving them base locations like these makes sense in that scenario.

I also suggested that in an earlier post, however given that they are a French possession and the French will be on the winning side, I unfortunately cannot see that happening...

 

[Serpent]

Is there any oil or gas in the area?

I'm not sure we even had any exploration for fossil fuel in the area IRL speaking, even in the modern day, but just consider how recently has the Eastern Mediterranean basin been explored for fossil fuel, it hasn't even been a decade yet, and numerous areas e.g. Aegean Sea, remain almost completely unexplored right now.

 

[Asriellian]

Greece being assigned random islands off the coast of Tunisia is like Yugoslavia getting assigned random islands off the coast of Tunisia. Economic gain is no real excuse and that's the only excuse there would be. There's no historical precedent for it you might as well give the islands to Norway if we're just giving islands away willy-nilly

 

[Lascaris]

Leaving the IMMENSE GAIN in terms of the expansion of the Hellenic EEZ aside, because that cannot be factored into the decision making process in the immediate aftermath of WWII, at least that much, because EEZ (fossil fuel) exploitation isn't yet that relevant, these 4 islands still retain huge strategic significance for Greece, whether for the obvious military purposes, but also for economic reasons, ranging from fishing rights into a whole new area, down to the potential of these islands as resupply stations for Greek mercantile shipping and beyond.

In the utterly unlikely case Greece would be claiming the islands what exactly is it gaining from pissing off (even more) Italy and why the US and Britain would care to accommodate it?

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Greece being assigned random islands off the coast of Tunisia is like Yugoslavia getting assigned random islands off the coast of Tunisia. Economic gain is no real excuse and that's the only excuse there would be. There's no historical precedent for it you might as well give the islands to Norway if we're just giving islands away willy-nilly

Personally I agree. Despite it being my post I don’t find it likely unless NATO is trying to secure the eastern Mediterranean, and even then I don’t think it happens. It just makes more sense than taking random Italian island with an Italian population and doing a population exchange IMO.

 

[Serpent]

Idk, to me it seems kinda implausible that Greece would get/even want a group of random islands so close to Sicily and (relatively) far from Greece that they have absolutely 0 claim to. Plus I doubt the Griko population of Italy would want to move out of their homes in Calabria to some almost completely barren rocks 100's of miles from home and even further away from the Greek mainland.

If Prime Minister Ion Dragoumis were to press for the Griko parts of Apulia and Calabria, the Italians would offer said islands instead in a heartbeat... There really isn't anything else the Italians could offer, that is a peripheral/expendable to the state, so that the Italians would be more than eager to part with these islands, when faced with the threat to part with far more crucial/integral lands to their homeland.

 

[emperor joe]

If Prime Minister Ion Dragoumis were to press for the Griko parts of Apulia and Calabria, the Italians would offer said islands instead in a heartbeat... There really isn't anything else the Italians could offer, that is a peripheral/expendable to the state, so that the Italians would be more than eager to part with these islands, when faced with the threat to part with far more crucial/integral lands to their homeland.

Why would ion press for the griko part? It would make more sense that he would press of more war preparations.. especially steel mills..if i remember correctly Italy has invented the electric arc furnace

 

[Serpent]

In the utterly unlikely case Greece would be claiming the islands what exactly is it gaining from pissing off (even more) Italy and why the US and Britain would care to accommodate it?

Italy is on the losing side of this conflict, the Italian armed forces have caused billions worth of damages throughout the Greek territories and naturally they should pay reparations for all these damages, having lost the conflict. Greece has a valid claim to the lands in Apulia and Calabria that the Griko people reside, that the US and British people should naturally be sympathetic to, given that, under Mussolini's regime, the Griko people, like all other minorities within the Italian state, e.g. Germans in South Tyrol, have faced intense persecution and were subject to forced assimilation policies, imprisonments etc. So naturally, on the basis of self determination, ITTL Greece could press in the post war negotiations for said areas, the Griko lands of Apulia and Calabria, to undergo referendums for their unification with Greece, threatening the territorial continuity of Italy within the Italian peninsula, in order to extract a proper compensation, in the form of the islands of Pantelleria, Lampedusa, Linosa & Lampione. In such a scenario ITTL Greece would also drop its demands for war reparations from Italy, in exchange for the 4 aforementioned islands.

While the Italian people might be pissed about this, the loss of those 4 islands should anger them far less than the loss of Venezia Guilia and Zara angered them historically post WWII, because said 4 islands are pretty small and not attached or really close by to the Italian mainland/Sicily, but rather really far away, so their loss would hardly be felt to the average Italian citizen.

Greece in return would gain a solid foothold in Central Mediterranean region, settle the Griko issue with the best/most feasible solution possible, any other solution would not be feasible in the long term (such as annexing the Griko parts of Apulia & Calabria).

Alternatively, Greece could even press to establish a "Griko republic" over in these islands, even as a United Nations Mandate, (like Trieste), either before Greece eventually unifies with this Griko mandate state, or it could become an independent state like Luxembourg, as it would be friendly to Greece regardless.

 

[goumaister]

Italy is on the losing side of this conflict, the Italian armed forces have caused billions worth of damages throughout the Greek territories and naturally they should pay reparations for all these damages, having lost the conflict. Greece has a valid claim to the lands in Apulia and Calabria that the Griko people reside, that the US and British people should naturally be sympathetic to, given that, under Mussolini's regime, the Griko people, like all other minorities within the Italian state, e.g. Germans in South Tyrol, have faced intense persecution and were subject to forced assimilation policies, imprisonments etc. So naturally, on the basis of self determination, ITTL Greece could press in the post war negotiations for said areas, the Griko lands of Apulia and Calabria, to undergo referendums for their unification with Greece, threatening the territorial continuity of Italy within the Italian peninsula, in order to extract a proper compensation, in the form of the islands of Pantelleria, Lampedusa, Linosa & Lampione. In such a scenario ITTL Greece would also drop its demands for war reparations from Italy, in exchange for the 4 aforementioned islands.

While the Italian people might be pissed about this, the loss of those 4 islands should anger them far less than the loss of Venezia Guilia and Zara angered them historically post WWII, because said 4 islands are pretty small and not attached or really close by to the Italian mainland/Sicily, but rather really far away, so their loss would hardly be felt to the average Italian citizen.

Greece in return would gain a solid foothold in Central Mediterranean region, settle the Griko issue with the best/most feasible solution possible, any other solution would not be feasible in the long term (such as annexing the Griko parts of Apulia & Calabria).

Alternatively, Greece could even press to establish a "Griko republic" over in these islands, even as a United Nations Mandate, (like Trieste), either before Greece eventually unifies with this Griko mandate state, or it could become an independent state like Luxembourg, as it would be friendly to Greece regardless.

Wow that sounds like a serious way for the Griko people to be expelled from their homes for absolutely no reason other than Greece gaining some far of islands. I doubt that the Griko population is even close to gain majority in a referendum even if they think they are Greek they could easily vote to stay in Italy. Also like OTL Italy will switch sides once Sicily has fallen and more than likely a lot of the Italian troops in Epirus would switch to the Allies which will give them some bargaining power. By the way Greece will take Dodecanese either way from Italy so that counts as a territorial concession. I am all for more money than money sinks also because you talk about later oil reserves with hindsight that the current players don't have even the EEZ is not a contemporary term.

The Greek navy needs to be on the defense of the straits from the soviets as it's most important mission. Any excuse to disperse it across
the Mediterranean is just a diversion. So much so for the cost of building said bases on those far off islands. Cyprus is on the other direction as well so even more dispersion which will only weaken its combat ability or just cost a ton to built and maintain more ships.

The reconstruction might end by the 50's but more development across Greece is far more valuable than a base on the Middle of the Mediterranean which has no Greeks and is a money sink. More railroads, harbors, shipwrights, roads, bridges, hospitals, schools all of that will need money that would go on some rocks for what? Some oil maybe in 30-40 years? The extraction cost in the deepness of the area is as well a hard job which will heighten it's price and that only if oil exist there.

There is a term in EU4 circles about expansion and development of a state: wide vs tall. Wide when expansion is a priority and tall when development of few provinces is the main focus. I would advocate for Greece to go tall here. It has managed its Megali Idea being more greedy only enemies will create.

 

[emperor joe]

Not only that but any diplomatic capital wasted on the italian lands is less capital to spend on more important things like Constantinople, asia minor, Cyprus and maybe Thrace

 

[Quinkana]

Not only that but any diplomatic capital wasted on the italian lands is less capital to spend on more important things like Constantinople, asia minor, Cyprus and maybe Thrace

Yep these lands are much more important.

At most Greece could negotiate with Italy to have the griko be taught in schools or a guarantee that the griko will not be mistreated.

 

[emperor joe]

Yep these lands are much more important.

At most Greece could negotiate with Italy to have the griko be taught in schools or a guarantee that the griko will not be mistreated.

Basically like otl today

 

[Aristomenes]

Leaving the IMMENSE GAIN in terms of the expansion of the Hellenic EEZ aside, because that cannot be factored into the decision making process in the immediate aftermath of WWII, at least that much, because EEZ (fossil fuel) exploitation isn't yet that relevant, these 4 islands still retain huge strategic significance for Greece, whether for the obvious military purposes, but also for economic reasons, ranging from fishing rights into a whole new area, down to the potential of these islands as resupply stations for Greek mercantile shipping and beyond.

The fundamental problem with this argument is that the notion of EEZ did not exist in 1943 and it will not be adopted for several more years. Plus of course the fact that Greece has absolutely no claim on these islands!

If Prime Minister Ion Dragoumis were to press for the Griko parts of Apulia and Calabria, the Italians would offer said islands instead in a heartbeat... There really isn't anything else the Italians could offer, that is a peripheral/expendable to the state, so that the Italians would be more than eager to part with these islands, when faced with the threat to part with far more crucial/integral lands to their homeland.

There is no need for Italy to offer any territorial concessions to Greece. Greece can simply ask for war reparations in the form of machine tools and equipment from Italian industries plus a battleship and some cruisers to be transferred to the Hellenic Navy. The only territorial concession I can think of is Greece getting the Sazan Island .

 

[emperor joe]

The fundamental problem with this argument is that the notion of EEZ did not exist in 1943 and it will not be adopted for several more years. Plus of course the fact that Greece has absolutely no claim on these islands!

There is no need for Italy to offer any territorial concessions to Greece. Greece can simply ask for war reparations in the form of machine tools and equipment from Italian industries plus a battleship and some cruisers to be transferred to the Hellenic Navy. The only territorial concession I can think of is Greece getting the Sazan Island .

Yes greece could claim that sazan island was in the septinsular state when it joined greece and was de jure under greek control is should be returned to greece.. although I don't know how greece would benefit from it..maybe a submarine base to project power in Adriatic? But from whom greece to project it's power in the Adriatic...at least greek fishermen in Corfu would have more area to fish in

 

[danybhoy]

Yes greece could claim that sazan island was in the septinsular state when it joined greece and was de jure under greek control is should be returned to greece.. although I don't know how greece would benefit from it..maybe a submarine base to project power in Adriatic? But from whom greece to project it's power in the Adriatic...at least greek fishermen in Corfu would have more area to fish in

or could come with an enlarged Northern Epirus which includes Vlore and the peninsula near it.

 

[Sphenodon]

Yeah, opening a diplomatic sore with the Italians in the future seems like an exceptionally unsound move from a strategic perspective. There could be some utility in a central Mediterranean island or a few as a fueling station, sure, but unlike with the imperial powers in the region (U.K , France, Italy) there really isn't a pressing need for such stations to support an empire of trade routes and overseas territories. These prospective islands would be the westernmost territories of the country instead of waypoints between crucial zones of control, making them pretty pointless compared to something like Malta for the U.K. As for pressing claims in Calabria and Apulia - doing so at all is going to only further sour state relations between the Greeks and Italians postwar, there is next to no chance of Athens being awarded them at a peace conference, and even if they were they would be not only impossible to defend but a dangerous overstretch of forces that could be committed to Anatolian or Thracian borderlands. Better to leave things as they are, maybe use that diplomatic credit to instead support the rights of the Grikos in postwar Italy.

If there's liable to be any Greek claims pushed against Italy (and/or formerly Italian-occupied territories), they are likely to be in Albania or Cyrenaica. The latter case is really the only colonial cession target I can see Athens pursuing, which doesn't seem like a huge priority for them to begin with. Albania is a place I can see Greece pushing for border adjustments in postwar, but there's so many diplomatic angles for the relevant policymakers to pursue that I don't know how it would shape up in the end. Partitioning it with Yugoslavia for significant territorial gains but set the seeds for a really nasty insurgency in time? No or minimal changes from pre-war to try and build up Albania as a regional ally postwar and a counterbalance against Yugoslavia? Something in the middle? Hard to say.

 

[Lascaris]

Italy is on the losing side of this conflict, the Italian armed forces have caused billions worth of damages throughout the Greek territories and naturally they should pay reparations for all these damages, having lost the conflict. Greece has a valid claim to the lands in Apulia and Calabria that the Griko people reside, that the US and British people should naturally be sympathetic to, given that, under Mussolini's regime, the Griko people, like all other minorities within the Italian state, e.g. Germans in South Tyrol, have faced intense persecution and were subject to forced assimilation policies, imprisonments etc. So naturally, on the basis of self determination, ITTL Greece could press in the post war negotiations for said areas, the Griko lands of Apulia and Calabria,

No it could not. First no Greek, ever in the last two centuries ever made any serious claim in either Magna Grecia or Sicily. Second there is no desire in the other side of the Adriatic to join Greece nor was there in the past. Third even if there was desire to join Greece, which there wasn't, the Griko population in the province of Lecce where Grecia Salentina lies is 6.75%, it's 1.33% overall for all of Apulia. If anything in Calabria it's lower at 1.22%. Fourth what is Greece supposed to be gaining again? A hostile population that run at 4.5 million in 1936 half as much as the enlarged TTL Greek population? Or a hostile power with 5 times its GDP and population?

to undergo referendums for their unification with Greece, threatening the territorial continuity of Italy within the Italian peninsula, in order to extract a proper compensation, in the form of the islands of Pantelleria, Lampedusa, Linosa & Lampione. In such a scenario ITTL Greece would also drop its demands for war reparations from Italy, in exchange for the 4 aforementioned islands.

So Greece should drop a claim for referendums it would be guaranteed to lose and would not be making anyway, as well reparations running to a significant fraction of her GDP in order to get... 4 rocks off Tunisia? For good measure it should then cram 80,000 mountaineers not altogether interested in joining it, in said 4 rocks that have less 15,000 people. Again why Dragoumis or Kafandaris or whoever is running the Greek delegation at the peace conference is doing any of this?

While the Italian people might be pissed about this, the loss of those 4 islands should anger them far less than the loss of Venezia Guilia and Zara angered them historically post WWII, because said 4 islands are pretty small and not attached or really close by to the Italian mainland/Sicily, but rather really far away, so their loss would hardly be felt to the average Italian citizen.

Greece in return would gain a solid foothold in Central Mediterranean region, settle the Griko issue with the best/most feasible solution possible, any other solution would not be feasible in the long term (such as annexing the Griko parts of Apulia & Calabria).

Alternatively, Greece could even press to establish a "Griko republic" over in these islands, even as a United Nations Mandate, (like Trieste), either before Greece eventually unifies with this Griko mandate state, or it could become an independent state like Luxembourg, as it would be friendly to Greece regardless.

So Greece is supposed to try to solve an issue that currently does not exist in the first place, by creating an issue from nowhere?