Octogenarian Napoleon

[Mikey]

Napoleon did not last long in exile - arriving in St. Helena in late 1815, he succumbed only five years later. He was barely middle-aged.

Dismissing theories that he was poisoned, this POD suggests that Napoleon live until the ripe old age of 80. Certainly, 19th century life expectancies were shorter than ours, but 80 is no huge feat at time time. This would place Napoleon's death in 1849, conveniently letting him see the revolutions of the previous year (if not butterflied away - still, the issues will arise around that time).

How will Europe fare with Napoleon lurking in the background - I do not suggest a daring escape, but simply a long life under house arrest, with active correspondence. He will outlive Louis XVIII, and any analog of the July Revolution will certainly earn his attention, though naturally, the British will not let him off St. Helena.

Will he remain quiet, or will his shadow hang over Europe until his death?

 

[RPW@Cy]

Will he remain quiet, or will his shadow hang over Europe until his death?

when the news of Napoleon's death first reached Paris in 1821 the following conversation was reported to have taken place at a party -

LADY: "Napoleon dead? What an event!"

TALLEYRAND: "No madam, it is no longer an event. It is merely an item of news."

Napoleon's shadow had ceased to hang over Europe even before his OTL death. By 1849 he would be an obscure, pathetic figure exercising no influence whatsoever. One obvious change would be that the retour des cendres would not take place in 1840, whether this would have any effect on internal French politics I have no idea.

 

[Caesar Australis]

Well Napoleon III was elected France's president in late 1848, and the British had OK relations with him. So the Third might pressure the British to free Napoleon the First? I doubt the British would release him initially, but if we allow for his life being prolonged for another 5 years he'll still be around(albeit 85 and probably senile) when the Crimean war kicks off. The British needed French assistance if they were to have a prayer of beating Russia, so Napoleon III could leverage Napoleon I's release as a condition of French entrance into the war.

 

[Ar Skoul]

This could have a tremendous effect upon the career of Napoleon III. In OTL he was the head of the bonapartist movement after the death of the King of Rome in 1832.

In ATL, Nappy I would still be the nominal head of the family, while Nappy III would have to stay in the background. Nappy III would be hindered, not helped, by the overshadowing presence of his uncle and he may very well never rise to power.

Caivagnac would have been elected and, as he was not the kind to pull out a coup, the second republic would have survived longer. I give it 50% chances to establish itself and 50% chances to revert back to a monarchy, if the monarchists can agree on a candidate.

Of course, in both cases, no franco-prussian war and a very different Italian unification. Europe would be very different place today.