What would the occupation of Japan have looked like if the Nationalists had won the Chinese Civil War or had stayed in power on the Mainland in some other manner? Would the occupation have been longer or shorter? Would Japan be better or worse than it is today?
Occupation of Japan if Nationalists win Chinese Civil War
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China was invited to participate in the Occupation but turned it down because of the war.
Paradoxer
Banned
That’s thing if China wins they probably don’t have very stable country or even navy to get there. I could also see US and west shrugging them off because KMT probably can’t be trusted in China. Too personal and likely piss off too many Japanese
Paradoxer
Banned
I think you are confusing that with Germany and even most realize that would be dumb idea and likely lead to a lot of people dying
Japan had already been deindustrialized. The USAAF had seen to it. The question was whether Japan would be allowed to rebuild its industry — and given that AIUI that didn't start in earnest until the 1950s, changes in the outcome of the Chinese civil war could absolutely affect things.
Would Japan have been allowed to rebuild? Would the peace treaty be lenient?
I wonder if the US would take a harder line against Japanese war criminals who got away with their deeds IOTL (Shiro Ishii, Nobusuke Kishi and so on) to please the Nationalists.
What if the Generalissimo offers amnesty to certain Japanese criminals just as the Usa did to von brauns team, in exchange for their help in rebuilding China?
Why would they help? And, more importantly, how could they help?
To avoid punishment, as well as for the opportunity to rebuild an entire nation from the ground up. Mao actually converted a number of Weng's followers just as Grandpa Kim, in North korea. How could they help, they are like drs in jail, the skills are still there. If they kept the greater east asia co prosperity sphere, going they could do the same for Free China.
This is the important part IMHO. Maybe we could see more reconciliation between the governments of Japan and China.
You could have effects as early as 47-49, with Kennan's recommendations to allow Japanese reindustrialization and reprioritize strengthening of Japan over reform fall on deaf ears.
Some parallel to OTL policies of lightening up on the occupied Japanese and toleration of conservative business interests may be tolerated anyway though, just to keep occupation costs lower and more manageable.
The biggest difference would be this should prevent the Korean War, and the attendant Japanese export boom. Also, in addition to not having that boom, Japan would have to compete on the world market from an early stage with an undestroyed southern Korea and a recovering eastern China not disconnected from global trade.
Some parallel to OTL policies of lightening up on the occupied Japanese and toleration of conservative business interests may be tolerated anyway though, just to keep occupation costs lower and more manageable.
The biggest difference would be this should prevent the Korean War, and the attendant Japanese export boom. Also, in addition to not having that boom, Japan would have to compete on the world market from an early stage with an undestroyed southern Korea and a recovering eastern China not disconnected from global trade.
100% And to piggy back off this, you would probably see a lot less controversy with the dropping of the atomic bombs, if more people in America knew how brutal Japan was to China and French Indochina.
We might also see instead of whenever someone thinks of horrible human medical experimentation, the first thing that comes to mind is Imperial Japan not Nazi Germany since they were way more notorious for that the the Nazis were.
Supplying the armies in Korea was the jump start on rebuilding Japan's industry. Basics like pierced steel plank, cement, nails, steel rebar, steel beams, telephone wire....
Absent that the previous decisions for rebuilding are slower in execution.
How could it? Who’s going to bail it out, Stalin? Goood luck with that.