Obama vs Trump in 2016

[Booster Gold]

POD - Michigan and Florida don't move their primaries. Hillary Clinton wins both states and this sets loose enough butterflies to give her the win in a tight primary. She chooses Obama as VP to unite the party. Fast forward to 2016 and the Clinton presidency is similar to Obama's, a few more legislative victories due to her experience with Congress, a few more scandals because Clinton Derangement Syndrome.

So Obama with his easy charm and charisma walks to the Democratic nomination. Trump is indistinguishable from OTL and wins the Republican.

How does the campaign play out? How does the alt-right go after the first black man to run as a major party nominee? Where does White America stand? What about Latinos?

Where are we on Halloween alt 2016?

 

[Oppo]

I'd say Obama would be leading more than Hillary is currently. With the increased black vote, Obama might be ahead in Georgia and Missouri.

 

[Kyro92]

Obama wouldn't have Hillary's scandals or low approval ratings, Trump would still have his. And I think it's a safe bet that Trump add a favourable contrast to the narrative that choosing Obama means choosing a post-racial America. The college educated white/comfortably wealthy vote would desert Trump to a significantly greater degree then it has OTL.

I'm guessing North of 55%, South of 60% for Obama.

It's possible that Trump does even worse if it's obvious to him that his loss is a foregone conclusion and he abandons the notion of campaigning to win, and instead focuses on laying the foundations for Trump TV and indulging his ego.

 

[Wendell]

Assuming President Hillary Clinton had Obama's approval numbers (doubtful), it would be a cakewalk for Obama, whose charisma and likability would probably carry him over the finish line anyway. To be honest though, the scenario is a non-starter, especially if we go by the idea that the Obama administration and the 2011 White House Correspondents' dinner were Trump's motivations to run in the first place.

 

[Starkad]

POD - Michigan and Florida don't move their primaries. Hillary Clinton wins both states and this sets loose enough butterflies to give her the win in a tight primary.

Hm, didn't Iowa have (or propose) a law that automatically moved them to the head of the queue ? And other states were looking at moving up too. The first primary could end up well before xmas...
There is also the problem that Michigan and Florida may find their delegations being refused seating at the convention (I forget if that was an existing rule or a DNC decision to stem the flight towards 2007).

You could end up with one hell of a rules fight before and during the convention, possibly even a walkout by the losing party

Worst case scenario: you end up with more than 1 democratic candidate and a split party

 

[Starkad]

Momentum matters most to struggling campaigns and the dwarfs who need their 15 minutes in the spotlight to attract new support, like gaffes an

In the '08 primary winning states is less important than by how much, winning is nice but delegates are what matters

The key to a Hillary win is to have her take the primary serious and run a proper well prepard primary campaign. That means a total reorganisation of her campaign team and dumping most of the deadwood from the '92 and '96 campaigns in favor of someone who understsnds the new delegate math.
She's perfectly capable of doing that once the reality of the situation sets in as her '16 primary campaign shows, but she has to realise it's not a cakewalk

I'm rather doubtful about Obama as VP, there was little love lost between them, and Hillary is not big on reconciliation (loyalty, however...)

Hillary is much less likely to bet heavily on health care reform early on (maybe in a 2nd term?), she already went down that rabbit role once and lived to regret it, so what is her priority in 2009-10?.
The ObamaCare debacle was a big part in the rise of the Tea Party, if that is delayed/different that affects a lot of things from the midterms on.

 

[CalBear]

Current politics (last time I checked Trump is still running for President).

Locked.