For the OTL hubbub
The POD(s) occurs in the early 2000s. The first is that Syria decides to site the OTL Al Kibar nuclear reactor elsewhere. The second is that U.S. Intelligence in 2005 overlooks a cooperative project between Syria and North Korea. The third is basically a bunch of further mini-PODs in which the Syrians get a lucky break in general. 2007 passes without OTL Operation Orchard being launched, but the U.S. and Israel do start to suspect Syria is up to something in 2008. By the time the U.S. and Israel realize what Syria is doing in 2009, it is too late, and the reactor has gone critical. Due to ITTL siting of the reactor, striking at it would release fallout over a population center, so Israel and the U.S. decide to go public with this information, hoping to bring international pressure on Syria to dismantle the reactor. International Condemnation is swift in coming when the U.S. and Israel release information regarding the site to the UN and other organizations…..
What happens after this?
I really don’t think this will seriously butterfly the Arab Spring (even without Bouazizi self-immolating, the general area was a powder keg), but what happens when the Syrian civil war starts? Assuming that the Syrians have 2-3 nuclear weapons by this time, would the west be more or less likely to intervene?
The POD(s) occurs in the early 2000s. The first is that Syria decides to site the OTL Al Kibar nuclear reactor elsewhere. The second is that U.S. Intelligence in 2005 overlooks a cooperative project between Syria and North Korea. The third is basically a bunch of further mini-PODs in which the Syrians get a lucky break in general. 2007 passes without OTL Operation Orchard being launched, but the U.S. and Israel do start to suspect Syria is up to something in 2008. By the time the U.S. and Israel realize what Syria is doing in 2009, it is too late, and the reactor has gone critical. Due to ITTL siting of the reactor, striking at it would release fallout over a population center, so Israel and the U.S. decide to go public with this information, hoping to bring international pressure on Syria to dismantle the reactor. International Condemnation is swift in coming when the U.S. and Israel release information regarding the site to the UN and other organizations…..
What happens after this?
I really don’t think this will seriously butterfly the Arab Spring (even without Bouazizi self-immolating, the general area was a powder keg), but what happens when the Syrian civil war starts? Assuming that the Syrians have 2-3 nuclear weapons by this time, would the west be more or less likely to intervene?
