Nuclear 8/11

[CDurham]

In response to a question in the Nuclear 9/11 thread.

On 8-11-2001, in China, a group of Christian Radicals/extremists/whatever from the Southern United States smuggle in 4 black market suitcase nukes on cargo vessels sitting in harbour and detonate 3 of them in the port cities of Shanghi, Guangzho, and Quindao. The fourth had been smuggeld overland and detonated in Bejing.

Now what happens

 

[Cherico]

China nukes america
simply put there is no freaking way a bunch of fundys are going
to successfully steal a nuke and sneak it successfully out of the
country and hit a major power with out some level of aproval.

In this case China is fully justified in using nukes aganst our country.

 

[Fenwick]

China nukes america
simply put there is no freaking way a bunch of fundys are going
to successfully steal a nuke and sneak it successfully out of the
country and hit a major power with out some level of aproval.

In this case China is fully justified in using nukes aganst our country.

The counter of that is the nukes could have been sold by arms dealers. If they are "suit case" nuclear devices then Russia, or the black market is where to go, not America.

 

[CDurham]

The counter of that is the nukes could have been sold by arms dealers. If they are "suit case" nuclear devices then Russia, or the black market is where to go, not America.

Which is EXACTLY where they got them. Did Cherico even read my post?

 

[carlton_bach]

China takes decisive action against, oh, just about anyone that can convincingly be portrayed as linked to the attack. The non-state Catholic church and the Protestant groups in the country are in for trouble. As as Falun Dafa, but I guess that goes without saying. Most of the Western world will be horrified and condemn this act in the strongest terms. Washington had better think very hard about its non-extradition policy because the Chinese will want everyone involved in this plot, and I'd hate to be on the receiving end of their anger if they're not getting them. The Uighur nationalists will catch hell on general principle.

In the medium term, this will make a great stick to beat US and EU trade negotiators into acquiescence with. Relations will be much more strained, and China will see very little reason to accommodate any requests from them (let's not even *think* 'demand' here). It may also lead to greater rapprochement between China and the Islamic world.

China militarises more and more pointedly than OTL, and the west regards it as much more of a threat due to the far more stridently anti-Western rhetoric prevalent in the Chinese media. Taiwan will be a much more uncomfortable place to be. India may find itself driven into NATO's arms as it feels itself squeezed between China's vast armies and the Muslim world. Owing to vastly increased security following this attack, there is no 9/11, and worries about Islamist terror are widely dismissed as typically bigoted Hindutva paranoia.

Being an outspoken Christian becomes much more socially awkward, which means less pestering by soul-savers. Unfortunately, it could give non-Christian proselytisers a boost, countering the sole good result of this tragedy.

Every terrorrist in the world *instantly* has a new role model. And lots of people called 'Bubba' Johnson find themselves on EU no-fly lists.

 

[carlton_bach]

China nukes america
simply put there is no freaking way a bunch of fundys are going
to successfully steal a nuke and sneak it successfully out of the
country and hit a major power with out some level of aproval.

In this case China is fully justified in using nukes aganst our country.

You know, the Chinese government has a multitude of failings, but lack of professionalism is not among them. Certainly not to this degree.

 

[Max Sinister]

There's not only the problem of getting a nuke, but also smuggling it into China. Its borders may not be as impenetratable as that of East Germany, but still.

 

[Kevin in Indy]

Y'know, a really quick-thinking Chinese Politburo might decide to hide the ties to "Bubba Johnson" and instead put out the news that their investigation implicated the Taiwanese - or the South Koreans - or the Tibetans - or the Vietnamese - or whomever else they needed to bring into line. Hey, they just lost thousands or millions of citizens to a terrorist - who's going to say no just so long as the gun's pointed away?

They can roll "Bubba" and the black-market nukes back out when they want to gain some crippling concessions from the USA or Russia (unless the news media brings him out first! ).

 

[Atreus]

China is crippled in the short term. I know that it is Gigantic, but losing the capital, and three other major cities, along with millions of citizens and large amounts of industry will be a stunning blow. On the same note, the world economy is in trouble. A lot depends on whether the Christian fundamentalist involvement comes out. Probably so, most acts like these involve the terrorists taking credit. The world will swing away from RIght-wing Christian fundamentalism.

 

[carlton_bach]

There's not only the problem of getting a nuke, but also smuggling it into China. Its borders may not be as impenetratable as that of East Germany, but still.

Sorry, but - China? East Germany? No contest. China's borders are a sieve, and one with big holes in it. The problem is that you have to be local to use them, so this attack would have to rely either on outright local support (Chinese millennialists?) or on tricking locals into helping you. Organised crime in China regularly and without any major problems moves containerloads of contraband, tons of herion and armies of illegal migrant workers, so it can most certainly be done. It just can't be done by non-Chinese.

How's for using an organised crime network to put the bombs in place disguised as advanced lab equipment to be used to copy US 'blockbuster' drugs? Of course, your friends and allies will probably make off with one, tell you the police confiscated it, and try to sell it to someone on the black market. Could be amusing.

 

[userid]

sneaking the nukes in isnt a problem. its doing it without getting caught thats the problem. Bejing is easy to hit by air. a simple job to charter a private jet from a nearby country to land at the airport. when its in place blow the bomb.

the ports are also not a problem. china has tons of cargo ships coming in all the time and the security is lower then the us ports. brain wash 1 or 2 people for each bomb give them a chem toilet or 2 and enough food for the trip and a cell phone for the signal of when to set it off.

the hard part is to not tie the bombs back to your group. this means that the cargo contaners cant come from the usa and the jet needs to be local for that area. all the transport costs could be as low as $1-2million safly removing all trails back to your group.

 

[PMN1]

With Beijing in ruins and the leadership in a mess, does this encourage break away states?

 

[torque7844]

I think people are vastly overestimating the power of a suitcase nuke. From what I'm reading, the suitcase nukes developed by the Russians were in the 1kt yield category, a big boom certainly, but significantly smaller than the explosion at Hiroshima. That's not going to completely level Beijing and, unless it's detonated at exactly the right place, is not going to cripple the Chinese government. Certainly things are messy and radiation is going to be a problem, but these are ground detonations rather than airbursts, so that, too, should affect how much actual physical damage they cause.

 

[userid]

I think people are vastly overestimating the power of a suitcase nuke. From what I'm reading, the suitcase nukes developed by the Russians were in the 1kt yield category, a big boom certainly, but significantly smaller than the explosion at Hiroshima. That's not going to completely level Beijing and, unless it's detonated at exactly the right place, is not going to cripple the Chinese government. Certainly things are messy and radiation is going to be a problem, but these are ground detonations rather than airbursts, so that, too, should affect how much actual physical damage they cause.

if they fly the beijing bomb in then it could be an air burst. and the 3 on the cargo ships are going to cause masive damage to the ports. which reduces chinas export or if they use one at the three river dam they wipe out 10 years of work and cause damage all the way to sea.

 

[carlton_bach]

if they fly the beijing bomb in then it could be an air burst. and the 3 on the cargo ships are going to cause masive damage to the ports. which reduces chinas export or if they use one at the three river dam they wipe out 10 years of work and cause damage all the way to sea.

You have to consider where it would be possible to put the bombs as well as where they would do most damage. I doubt, for example, that you can safely locate a suitcase nuke close enough to the seat of government to get *all* key personnel, or close enough to Three Gorges for that matter. Ports and urban areas are good places to hide nukes because big boxes move around there all the time.

But no matter where, you can't kill a country the size of China with four nuclear blasts. Truth be told, it would be difficult to kill a country the size of Belgium with four nuclear blasts.

 

[Max Sinister]

OK, so they could get the bomb inside China. But getting it to a barely populated area is (again) one thing, getting it to Beijing is another. That's several 1000 km, and the cities will be heavily guarded.

 

[Atreus]

Do what the Humans did to the race...Use a relativly large bomb, on a cargo ship. Tie it up at anchor, or even unload it. Removes the problem of suitcase nuclear weapons yeild, and moves the location closer to the point of impact. And if, for some strange reason, I had to place a nuclear weapon in Beijing, and I had a jet, why not just detonate an airburst. Again, large-scale blast. Not enough to wipe out china, but the internal and international consequenses would be huge. Chinese and World economies tank.

As to location, the chinese government does not search every truck entering Beijing or SHanghai. And hitting the Three Gorges Dam could, theoretically, be done the same way as Beijing. Fly a private jet low over the dam, and either detonate, or drop it with delayed parachutes, with the explosion coming at about 75 feet above the dam.

I am not trying to advocate these actions, but It is kind of scary how simple this is for a determined group. And this could happen to any country, for the most part.

 

[carlton_bach]

Do what the Humans did to the race...Use a relativly large bomb, on a cargo ship. Tie it up at anchor, or even unload it. Removes the problem of suitcase nuclear weapons yeild, and moves the location closer to the point of impact. And if, for some strange reason, I had to place a nuclear weapon in Beijing, and I had a jet, why not just detonate an airburst. Again, large-scale blast. Not enough to wipe out china, but the internal and international consequenses would be huge. Chinese and World economies tank.

Well, yes, but where are the perpetrators of this horror going to get this bomb? You are talking about a citykiller here, something you would put on an ICBM. I don't think any of those are currently missing, and they're probably very well guarded. A 'suitcase bomb' or even a tactical warhead would not be enough to vaporise Shanghai from an anchorage off the container terminal. And in 2000, the Three Gorges dam is a big building site cordoned off against protesters and pesky reporters. I'm not sure there is an overflight route, though if there is I guess aerial bombing is possible.

BTW, why would you want an airburst? A ground explosion produces much more fallout.

 

[JimmyJimJam]

Way. Too. ASB.

 

[Flocculencio]

Well, yes, but where are the perpetrators of this horror going to get this bomb? You are talking about a citykiller here, something you would put on an ICBM. I don't think any of those are currently missing, and they're probably very well guarded.

Actually I tend to see scenarios like this less in terms of terrorists somehow getting a big nuke but in terms of North Korea finally snapping.