Northern Limit Line

[sloreck]

Neither the French nor the British have their boomers in the Pacific. Their missiles do not have the range to hit North Korea from the Atlantic/North Sea/Mediterranean. To use SLBMS these boats would have to move quite a distance, and even if they did so at high speed not worrying about detection it will take some time for them to get in range. You also need to be careful about the missile trajectory. Given the situation here, you don't want missiles to go over China or Russia as it could be misconstrued. If the Uk or France was to use nuclear capable aircraft they would have to deploy these aircraft, and the bombs to someplace closer to North Korea. Even under these circumstances I can't see either Russia or China allowing a French or British aircraft with nukes on board being allowed to transit their territory, nor would the British or French be happy with that idea.

All of the above means the British and French can't responds right away, it takes time to get weapons and delivery systems in place. For the Russians and Chinese, they are right there. The USA has boomers in the Pacific, and nuke capable aircraft locally. The issue would be how far away are the weapons? In the 90s the USA stopped carrying nukes aboard carriers and other warships, so the weapons would need to be brought forward from storage areas.

 

[Tyg]

Darkly amusing note: President Bush is now going to get a lot of foreign support in his efforts to force Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, etc to give up their chemical and biological weapons, and allow unfettered inspections.

 

[pdf27]

All of the above means the British and French can't responds right away, it takes time to get weapons and delivery systems in place. For the Russians and Chinese, they are right there. The USA has boomers in the Pacific, and nuke capable aircraft locally. The issue would be how far away are the weapons? In the 90s the USA stopped carrying nukes aboard carriers and other warships, so the weapons would need to be brought forward from storage areas.

Err... no. Likely RN operating areas are about 9,000 km from North Korea (Trident D5 is claimed to have a 12,000 km range - probably more in the sub-strategic role with a single warhead). The French M45 missile doesn't have the range needed, but the Marine Nationale also have ASMP missiles deployed on board the Charles de Gaulle which I think has been committed to the war. So both countries are able to launch nuclear weapons against North Korea, and have a stated doctrine which would lead to an expectation of nuclear reprisal in these circumstances.

The real issue with the RN attacking is the path the missile would take - across Siberia from Vorkhuta to Lake Baikal then skimming Mongolia before heading across Manchuria. They wouldn't launch without at least informing the Russians exactly what was going on first, and probably the Chinese too. That doesn't apply so much to Charles de Gaulle, which doesn't need to fly a ballistic missile over other states to hit North Korea.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Hold up. How did North Korea managed to get terrorists beyond their country?

I'm sorry but I can't see the nerve gas attacks happening except on South Korea and maybe Japan.

 

[okmangeez]

Hold up. How did North Korea managed to get terrorists beyond their country?

I'm sorry but I can't see the nerve gas attacks happening except on South Korea and maybe Japan.

There has been various reports and confirmation from dozens of defectors that North Korea DO have agents working in other countries, especially the United States.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/22/hundreds-north-korean-spies-us-any-given-time-defe/

North Korea might be backwards, but they still have a sophisticated intelligence network, in addition to highly advanced hacking/assassin teams.

So no, a massive terrorist attack on this scale is certainly possible if North Korea has planned this out. And shipping in explosives/chemical weapons through illegal means is not impossible either.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

There has been various reports and confirmation from dozens of defectors that North Korea DO have agents working in other countries, especially the United States.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/22/hundreds-north-korean-spies-us-any-given-time-defe/

North Korea might be backwards, but they still have a sophisticated intelligence network, in addition to highly advanced hacking/assassin teams.

So no, a massive terrorist attack on this scale is certainly possible if North Korea has planned this out. And shipping in explosives/chemical weapons through illegal means is not impossible either.

Do you have more sources than that? I mean how can North Korea do that in a limited amount of time and with the necessary resources? And in a post 9/11 world that's going to be a challenge getting through national borders.

 

[okmangeez]

Do you have more sources than that? I mean how can North Korea do that in a limited amount of time and with the necessary resources? And in a post 9/11 world that's going to be a challenge getting through national borders.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/21/asia/north-korea-spies/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...orea-bred-spies-using-former-US-soldiers.html

And the such.

But it's almost a certainty that North Korea already HAD spies in the United States even prior to the 9/11 attacks.

I mean, North Korea has kidnapped people from Japan, and I think in one instance even in the United States. North Korea isn't just a starving regime, it's a starving insane regime. If it comes down to the situation where they're basically dead (which is now), then no doubt they'll go "banzai" and cause as much a mess as they could.

 

[Kung Fucious]

Okay, I've been enjoying this TL so far, but the Norks would not be the ones to initiate the kind of massive gas/biological attack they did, let alone ones against two ostensibly friendly regimes (China and Russia). They completely lack the espionage infrastructure to pull off that kind of attack (North Korean spies are laughably easy to spot), and there's no way they'd target their patron (China) and a nominally friendly country (Russia).

Would they target Japan? Oh yeah, absolutely, and probably a few American military bases in the region in an attempt to deny their use to the US. The kind of operation they've pulled off here is so far beyond the scope of their actual capabilities that it's almost funny. I'm not trying to sound like a dick, I've genuinely enjoyed this TL so far, but this didn't just break plausibility, it shattered it into a million pieces.

If you want North Korea to use WMD's in a way that gives the US cover for launching nukes, using them just against Tokyo, or even a battlefield usage by the Norks would be enough to give a fig leaf of cover to tactical nuclear usage. And before anyone says "Oh well they're crazy!", I'd beg to disagree. The North Koreans put on a crazy front, but the actual military leadership isn't so deluded as to OK this kind of operation. Kim Jong Il wasn't dumb, he was actually fairly shrewd given his position and circumstance (his son, on the other hand...).

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/21/asia/north-korea-spies/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...orea-bred-spies-using-former-US-soldiers.html

And the such.

But it's almost a certainty that North Korea already HAD spies in the United States even prior to the 9/11 attacks.

I mean, North Korea has kidnapped people from Japan, and I think in one instance even in the United States. North Korea isn't just a starving regime, it's a starving insane regime. If it comes down to the situation where they're basically dead (which is now), then no doubt they'll go "banzai" and cause as much a mess as they could.

No mention of them carrying biological weapons though.

 

[okmangeez]

Okay, I've been enjoying this TL so far, but the Norks would not be the ones to initiate the kind of massive gas/biological attack they did, let alone ones against two ostensibly friendly regimes (China and Russia). They completely lack the espionage infrastructure to pull off that kind of attack (North Korean spies are laughably easy to spot), and there's no way they'd target their patron (China) and a nominally friendly country (Russia).

Would they target Japan? Oh yeah, absolutely, and probably a few American military bases in the region in an attempt to deny their use to the US. The kind of operation they've pulled off here is so far beyond the scope of their actual capabilities that it's almost funny. I'm not trying to sound like a dick, I've genuinely enjoyed this TL so far, but this didn't just break plausibility, it shattered it into a million pieces.

If you want North Korea to use WMD's in a way that gives the US cover for launching nukes, using them just against Tokyo, or even a battlefield usage by the Norks would be enough to give a fig leaf of cover to tactical nuclear usage. And before anyone says "Oh well they're crazy!", I'd beg to disagree. The North Koreans put on a crazy front, but the actual military leadership isn't so deluded as to OK this kind of operation. Kim Jong Il wasn't dumb, he was actually fairly shrewd given his position and circumstance (his son, on the other hand...).

No mention of them carrying biological weapons though.

I'll do my best to explain why the North Korean government committed the actions they did.

1) It has already been mentioned in previous updates that China and Russia had practically abandoned the North. They've effectively placed a blockade around North Korea, plus they sliced all economic aid to the struggling nation. That alone with enrage the North Korean government, so the attacks on Russia and China are certainly plausible.

2) Britain didn't launch nukes because several points were already made about Britain having to launch the missiles over Chinese and Russian territory.

3) Chemical and biological weapons can be smuggled in via Mexico or other networks. We're not talking about a massive tank. A biological weapon can be stored in suitcases and be released through contact/airborne. Chemical weapons will take greater quantity, but also doesn't require massive amounts to kill and injure thousands.

And no. I wasn't intending on making this a "and they all died by nukes, the end." More like showing just how fanatical and destructive the North Koreans COULD be if they absolutely went full out.

(Do remember that even right now, North Korea has professional teams of hackers, researchers, and assassins. There's a huge reason why the people are starving, and part of it lies on the fact that the DPRK government favors those that largely benefit the regime. The articles I posted above shows the North Korean spies are treated on the same level as generals, if not higher.)

 

[OAM47]

By comparison, I have a rather mundane complaint. The "hotline" actually reverted to a telex machine, so that mistranslations are less likely. Aside for one brief period the direct phone is just Hollywood

That said, I think while the North Koreans are being a bit crazier than I'd give them credit for, I think this type of action in the TL has us all gripping our seats. I mean, we've had an explosion of comments here, most foaming at the mouth for more, so clearly you're doing something right. I'll admit, there's some points I'm "eh...." at, but I think it's more to do with formatting than anything. That's not to say your format's bad, on the contrary, the bite sized updates are really easy to read. It's just some people expect massive updates that cover every little detail. Glossing over to just hit the big points is inherently different. I think a lot of the complaints would dissipate if there were more details, but like I said, it's all about what you make it. This way is fine, and the readers just have to fill in the gaps with their own head-canon.

 

[Alratan]

I suspect that the Russians and Chinese would consent to a British missile overflight if they knew exactly the trajectory that it would follow, given they'd also been attacked. I suspect they'd know that otherwise there'd be a fair chance it would be launched without permission. It would be a massive loss of face for the other nuclear powers to respond while the UK does nothing.

I would also suspect that it would be more than five cities. I'm not sure what incentive the Chinese or Russians (or French or British) have to leave any North Korean assets behind, so we'd see MIRV warheads used to hit very large numbers of targets. When you have a doctrine that calls for a “overwhelming and devastating response” then single warheads don't seem to be sufficient.

On prosaic grounds, nuclear warheads aren't 100% reliable and it would be very embarrassing for your counter-strike to be a dud.

 

[Archangel]

The NK regime giving weapons to civilians has the risk for the regime that some of them might use them against the regime, since some people might have inner doubts.

 

[Sargon]

I suspect that the Russians and Chinese would consent to a British missile overflight if they knew exactly the trajectory that it would follow, given they'd also been attacked. I suspect they'd know that otherwise there'd be a fair chance it would be launched without permission. It would be a massive loss of face for the other nuclear powers to respond while the UK does nothing.

Have to agree with this. There is no way the UK government would not respond to a WMD attack on the capital. The government would pretty much be out of office in short order as the public would be baying for vengeance, plus it is policy to respond to an attack by a WMD with one in return. It's simply not realistic the UK would do nothing when the other powers are doing something. Also remember this is when Tony Blair is in power. The guy who intervened in the Balkans, Sierra Leone, Iraq (twice) and Afghanistan.

The government is going to respond in kind. They would have to. May as well be ASB if they don't.


Sargon

 

[okmangeez]

By comparison, I have a rather mundane complaint. The "hotline" actually reverted to a telex machine, so that mistranslations are less likely. Aside for one brief period the direct phone is just Hollywood

That said, I think while the North Koreans are being a bit crazier than I'd give them credit for, I think this type of action in the TL has us all gripping our seats. I mean, we've had an explosion of comments here, most foaming at the mouth for more, so clearly you're doing something right. I'll admit, there's some points I'm "eh...." at, but I think it's more to do with formatting than anything. That's not to say your format's bad, on the contrary, the bite sized updates are really easy to read. It's just some people expect massive updates that cover every little detail. Glossing over to just hit the big points is inherently different. I think a lot of the complaints would dissipate if there were more details, but like I said, it's all about what you make it. This way is fine, and the readers just have to fill in the gaps with their own head-canon.

Ah, like what details? Because I don't want the readers to be unsatisfied

I suspect that the Russians and Chinese would consent to a British missile overflight if they knew exactly the trajectory that it would follow, given they'd also been attacked. I suspect they'd know that otherwise there'd be a fair chance it would be launched without permission. It would be a massive loss of face for the other nuclear powers to respond while the UK does nothing.

I would also suspect that it would be more than five cities. I'm not sure what incentive the Chinese or Russians (or French or British) have to leave any North Korean assets behind, so we'd see MIRV warheads used to hit very large numbers of targets. When you have a doctrine that calls for a “overwhelming and devastating response” then single warheads don't seem to be sufficient.

On prosaic grounds, nuclear warheads aren't 100% reliable and it would be very embarrassing for your counter-strike to be a dud.

Even with air burst, there still would be some fallout. Covering the entirety of North Korea with nuclear weapons makes sense to some people, but I think enough sane individuals would realize that the mess would be VERY hard to clean up afterwards and it'll contaminate the surrounding countries.

And who says Britain isn't going to do anything? I'll cover that in the next update

The NK regime giving weapons to civilians has the risk for the regime that some of them might use them against the regime, since some people might have inner doubts.

Ah, but you're forgetting something. From a NK POV, the nation was just attacked by multiple world powers that will be portrayed as "imperialists." Pretty much, the North Korean government can basically portray the invaders as barbarians seeking to destroy North Korea. If that happens, the North Korean civilians won't exactly see the UN forces as their saviors...

Have to agree with this. There is no way the UK government would not respond to a WMD attack on the capital. The government would pretty much be out of office in short order as the public would be baying for vengeance, plus it is policy to respond to an attack by a WMD with one in return. It's simply not realistic the UK would do nothing when the other powers are doing something.

The government is going to respond in kind. They would have to. May as well be ASB if they don't.


Sargon

They will. It'll be covered in the next update...

And it might not be the end of use of nuclear weapons on North Korea and elsewhere..

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

TBH, I can completely see North Korea at least trying something like this. They're mad enough to want to bring everyone down with them. Whether they could pull it off...

I find it believable enough, though. Alas...

Great if sad update - as always, it's the victims of a morally bankrupt regime that suffer rather than those who lead it. For now, anyway.

 

[Alratan]

Even with air burst, there still would be some fallout. Covering the entirety of North Korea with nuclear weapons makes sense to some people, but I think enough sane individuals would realize that the mess would be VERY hard to clean up afterwards and it'll contaminate the surrounding countries.

It will, but if the North Koreans are throwing weaponised biologicals around the neighbours are going to want to thoroughly destroy the place to prevent further large scale attacks that could cause enormous casualties. This isn't just a counter-value attack for them, but a counter-force one.

I doubt the Russians will care that much, and the western allies, as I say, appear to have a policy of “overwhelming and devastating response”, which almost has to mean multiple strikes to stay consistent with that. In situations like this, you're almost a prisoner of your previous decisions and declarations. Now, I don't think they'd cover North Korea, but I do think every North Korean city and meaningful military or government installation would be hit. I think you'd be looking at a number of warheads in the high tens or low hundred, rather than single digits.

It's worth remembering that the Chinese apparently don't have much in the way of nuclear weapons below the megatonne range. On the other hand, they also have a doctrine of only using nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack on them, but that's the kind of thing that may change when they see how the other nuclear powers respond and feel compelled to match it.

Ah, but you're forgetting something. From a NK POV, the nation was just attacked by multiple world powers that will be portrayed as "imperialists." Pretty much, the North Korean government can basically portray the invaders as barbarians seeking to destroy North Korea. If that happens, the North Korean civilians won't exactly see the UN forces as their saviors...

I have to admit that I don't think the North Korean government will be able to do anything after the nukes start flying, because it will have essentially ceased to exist, along with pretty much all North Korean communication infrastructure. There probably would be much less of a refugee crisis than was predicted though.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

3) Chemical and biological weapons can be smuggled in via Mexico or other networks. We're not talking about a massive tank. A biological weapon can be stored in suitcases and be released through contact/airborne. Chemical weapons will take greater quantity, but also doesn't require massive amounts to kill and injure thousands.

...

(Do remember that even right now, North Korea has professional teams of hackers, researchers, and assassins. There's a huge reason why the people are starving, and part of it lies on the fact that the DPRK government favors those that largely benefit the regime. The articles I posted above shows the North Korean spies are treated on the same level as generals, if not higher.)

I may believe these facts but can they really do it in a quick amount of time far from home?

 

[okmangeez]

TBH, I can completely see North Korea at least trying something like this. They're mad enough to want to bring everyone down with them. Whether they could pull it off...

I find it believable enough, though. Alas...

Great if sad update - as always, it's the victims of a morally bankrupt regime that suffer rather than those who lead it. For now, anyway.

Thanks. And may God have mercy on the poor North Koreans..

It will, but if the North Koreans are throwing weaponised biologicals around the neighbours are going to want to thoroughly destroy the place to prevent further large scale attacks that could cause enormous casualties. This isn't just a counter-value attack for them, but a counter-force one.

I doubt the Russians will care that much, and the western allies, as I say, appear to have a policy of “overwhelming and devastating response”, which almost has to mean multiple strikes to stay consistent with that. In situations like this, you're almost a prisoner of your previous decisions and declarations. Now, I don't think they'd cover North Korea, but I do think every North Korean city and meaningful military or government installation would be hit. I think you'd be looking at a number of warheads in the high tens or low hundred, rather than single digits.

It's worth remembering that the Chinese apparently don't have much in the way of nuclear weapons below the megatonne range. On the other hand, they also have a doctrine of only using nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack on them, but that's the kind of thing that may change when they see how the other nuclear powers respond and feel compelled to match it.



I have to admit that I don't think the North Korean government will be able to do anything after the nukes start flying, because it will have essentially ceased to exist, along with pretty much all North Korean communication infrastructure. There probably would be much less of a refugee crisis than was predicted though.

Pretty much. Though Russia might be a bit more concerned about nukes because the wind blows east, and the fallout would mainly drift towards them. I do see it as reasonable that Russia contacts the US to make sure they don't nuke the same targets over and over again.

And once nukes fly, North Korea is going to descend into further chaos. I don't think it would be wise to nuke Pyongyang, as that would make a bigger mess in North Korea, but I do see the country slowly falling into anarchy as supplies run out and nukes keep on falling.

I may believe these facts but can they really do it in a quick amount of time far from home?

To put it simply? Yes. They can.

North Korea has proved to be extremely adaptable and quick in its actions. And the fact that no US spies have managed to enter North Korean society is another factor that comes into play. The US is absolutely in the dark because both South Korea and the US doesn't have intelligence within the DPRK government.

And by the time the war began, I'm pretty much certain that North Korea would have smuggled in weapons into various nations as a last resort. If this was like 2016, then I could see them attempting to use dirty bombs or nuclear weapons on various cities.

 

[Gukpard]

North Korea is even more insane than the japanese empire, I can see they writing their own version of "Volks ans gewehr"¹ at this point

¹Volks ans gewehr (people to arms) was the anthem of the volkssturm,

Edit: What about a update showing the side of the north korean population? Like a (civilian) government official in his apartment in Kaesong watching a north korean propaganda clip telling blatant lies about the situation in the front?