North Macedonia/ FYRONM involved in the Yugoslavian war.

[presidentofyes12]

Albania hops in for their own rebels

I've a firm feeling that Albania's involvement here would be similar to Croatia's involvement in Bosnia- they support Albanians & Macedonia against Yugoslavia, but also support Albanians against Macedonians.

Either way, as Croatia and Bosnia slip out of Yugoslavia and the Yugoslavs get tied down there, they wouldn't be able to deal with fighting two wars to their west and one to the south. It'd leave the Yugoslav Wars weaker and smaller than in OTL

 

[pls don't ban me]

I've a firm feeling that Albania's involvement here would be similar to Croatia's involvement in Bosnia- they support Albanians & Macedonia against Yugoslavia, but also support Albanians against Macedonians.

Either way, as Croatia and Bosnia slip out of Yugoslavia and the Yugoslavs get tied down there, they wouldn't be able to deal with fighting two wars to their west and one to the south. It'd leave the Yugoslav Wars weaker and smaller than in OTL

so basically the "best"( not a good term isn't it? ) third Balkan war scenario would be have Yugoslavian forces , pissed of by Albania insurgents, to invade Kosovo and Macedonia, making Bulgaria join for Macedonia ( thus increasing the pro-Bulgarian sentiment i believe). The Greeks make their protest more heavy by threatening to stop commercial access for both Macedonia ans Bulgaria to Thessaloníki ( in OTL they Blocked access to Macedonia) which in this scenario might convince Grigorov to accept a unification with the Bulgarians( maybe with some autonomy like the Italian special statute regions?) while also allowing the Albanian minorities to join Albania.
-Greece gets praised for helping solve more peacefully a war
-Yugoslavia might do some initial offensive but retreat and admit the lost while trying to keep Bosnia or risk to have a 2 front war with a nation that in the 90's has not fully lost it's military strength ( Bulgaria was heavily demobilizing in that years but a war against a weaker yugoslavian army should still be winnable)
-Bulgarians have a new national holiday as they finally reclaimed Macedonia after losing 3 wars in a row
-Albania also makes their dreams of Great Albania by annexing Kosovo and some pieces of Macedonia .

is that all or did i forget something?
also, depending on how Yugoslavia acts Bosnia might have a better time than OT, right?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

At this point we only miss Romania showing up. IF by some reason they do something it would be surely to intervene on Bulgarian Side.

If things do escalate to where it's open season on Yugoslavia's borders (external and internal) then maybe Hungary goes for the Hungarian bits of northern Serbia?

 

[presidentofyes12]

also, depending on how Yugoslavia acts Bosnia might have a better time than OT, right?

Serbs would get less equipment in Bosnia and Croatia if war in those countries broke out during the conflict in Macedonia, probably making conflict in those areas easier for the new governments

 

[OnlyAlb]

The 1997 economic collapse in Albania, and the mob violence that followed allowed for the transfer of weapons from Albanian weapon depots to the KLA. If you want a wider conflict, you would need a secondary POD in which the transition of Albania from the Hoxha regime leads to widespread mob violence in 1991-1992.

 

[nickmn]

so basically the "best"( not a good term isn't it? ) third Balkan war scenario would be have Yugoslavian forces , pissed of by Albania insurgents, to invade Kosovo and Macedonia, making Bulgaria join for Macedonia ( thus increasing the pro-Bulgarian sentiment i believe). The Greeks make their protest more heavy by threatening to stop commercial access for both Macedonia ans Bulgaria to Thessaloníki ( in OTL they Blocked access to Macedonia) which in this scenario might convince Grigorov to accept a unification with the Bulgarians( maybe with some autonomy like the Italian special statute regions?) while also allowing the Albanian minorities to join Albania.
-Greece gets praised for helping solve more peacefully a war
-Yugoslavia might do some initial offensive but retreat and admit the lost while trying to keep Bosnia or risk to have a 2 front war with a nation that in the 90's has not fully lost it's military strength ( Bulgaria was heavily demobilizing in that years but a war against a weaker yugoslavian army should still be winnable)
-Bulgarians have a new national holiday as they finally reclaimed Macedonia after losing 3 wars in a row
-Albania also makes their dreams of Great Albania by annexing Kosovo and some pieces of Macedonia .

is that all or did i forget something?
also, depending on how Yugoslavia acts Bosnia might have a better time than OT, right?

That would still require Greek politics to not follow public sentiment . In a situation where the war is much closer to the Greek borders , voices for active military intervention would be even louder than OTL . Bulgaria even skirmishing against Serbian troops might send things over the edge , and instead of a different Yugoslav war we will get Balkan wars 90s edition . The popular support for Serbia in Greece was massive during the duration of the war . It still is . Worth mentioning that even 3 years back , in a Greece-Bosnia football game half the stadium was shouting chants about mass graves and had raised banners with references to Srebrenica and the massacres that happened there . The church gave regular sermons in support of Serbia and the archbishop of Athens even awarded honors to Radovan Karadzic , going so far as to officially declare him a Christian hero . Despite the government's best efforts to stay out of it and avoid scrutiny from NATO , the Greek Volunteer Guard actively participated in the conflict and was celebrated by both the Greek media and the people .
Bringing the conflict even closer to Greece before any NATO interference is a massive butterfly . Add in a bloody battle and all bets are off . While Serbia would struggle with a 2 front war , Albania and Bulgaria would probably fare far worse against a Greek army that is both larger than theirs and far better equipped at the time .
Not to mention that the whole "Greater Albania" thing would be an issue just as big as the Macedonian name . It denotes Albanian claims in Greek Epirus and Macedonia . This will hardly improve a situation that would already be very volatile .

 

[Karelian]

It would of course be also quite interesting to see the Turkish answer to all this , since the relations were quite heated in the 90s...

And because most of the Bulgarian Turks live in Kardzhali at southern Bulgaria, next to the Greek border, the situation would be even more volatile.

The 1997 economic collapse in Albania, and the mob violence that followed allowed for the transfer of weapons from Albanian weapon depots to the KLA. If you want a wider conflict, you would need a secondary POD in which the transition of Albania from the Hoxha regime leads to widespread mob violence in 1991-1992.

This is a good point, and one I failed to mention despite being firmly aware of it. The lawless nature of the Albanian-inhabitated borderlands of former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s made smuggling a profitable business, and boosted the influence of highland family strongmen in both Kosovo and FYROM.

 

[pls don't ban me]

That would still require Greek politics to not follow public sentiment . In a situation where the war is much closer to the Greek borders , voices for active military intervention would be even louder than OTL . Bulgaria even skirmishing against Serbian troops might send things over the edge , and instead of a different Yugoslav war we will get Balkan wars 90s edition . The popular support for Serbia in Greece was massive during the duration of the war . It still is . Worth mentioning that even 3 years back , in a Greece-Bosnia football game half the stadium was shouting chants about mass graves and had raised banners with references to Srebrenica and the massacres that happened there . The church gave regular sermons in support of Serbia and the archbishop of Athens even awarded honors to Radovan Karadzic , going so far as to officially declare him a Christian hero . Despite the government's best efforts to stay out of it and avoid scrutiny from NATO , the Greek Volunteer Guard actively participated in the conflict and was celebrated by both the Greek media and the people .
Bringing the conflict even closer to Greece before any NATO interference is a massive butterfly . Add in a bloody battle and all bets are off . While Serbia would struggle with a 2 front war , Albania and Bulgaria would probably fare far worse against a Greek army that is both larger than theirs and far better equipped at the time .
Not to mention that the whole "Greater Albania" thing would be an issue just as big as the Macedonian name . It denotes Albanian claims in Greek Epirus and Macedonia . This will hardly improve a situation that would already be very volatile .

honestly i don't know at this point.
the only solution i can see here is Turkey doing something to prevent the greeks to participate actively?
or greece does what Bulgaria did in OTL but even more: break the embargo, supply the Serbians and even allow volunteers. If i'm not mistaken there are Turks also in Macedonia. i honestly think that Turkey would prefer to see those Turks either under Bulgarian protection, with whom an agreement was kinda reached ( better than nothing) rather then Greek occupation.

How about Greece allows the Volunteers for Serbia and Turkey does the same for Macedonia and Bulgaria?
it basically become like in the Spanish Civil war.
Bulgaria has partially demobilized with the fall of communism so there is lots of equipment for potential volunteers

 

[nickmn]

Worth mentioning here that almost right next to the Bulgarian Turks (in Greek Thrace ) lives the Greek Muslim minority that Turkey considers Turks . At that point they had lived there without incident for 70 years . Turkey didnt have a particularly good relationship with Bulgaria either . Honestly , i would consider it more likely for Turkey to go for a land grab of the place where their minority exists than to aid a state they havent been friendly with for decades against a NATO member and risk upsetting the Americans in case things boil over .
Greece pretty much did all this OTL , just covertly . The Orthodox Church of Greece provided financial support to Serbia either with the tolerance or with the backing of the state . Greek volunteers did participate . Officially only 100 , unofficially quite a bit more , including many reservusts of the Greek army . There are also rumors that the Volunteer Guard actively participated in the atrocities in Bosnia . Some evidence must have appeared in the late 2000s , because some of the leading members were indicted but the whole thing was buried under "national security concerns" and covered up .
The whole area is an epic mess that puts the Middle East to shame . There are overlapping hates , grudges and land claims from almost everyone against almost everyone . If a general conflict erupts , it wouldnt be a typical war with 2 sides . It would be a free for all with some countries loosely aligned with each other .
Lets take Greece for example . Pro Serbian and therefore anti Croatian and Bosnian . Claims in Albania and minority issues . Pretty indifferent towards Bulgaria and probably even happy to see the state about to be named Macedonia eeaten up by Bulgaria .

 

[pls don't ban me]

Worth mentioning here that almost right next to the Bulgarian Turks (in Greek Thrace ) lives the Greek Muslim minority that Turkey considers Turks . At that point they had lived there without incident for 70 years . Turkey didnt have a particularly good relationship with Bulgaria either . Honestly , i would consider it more likely for Turkey to go for a land grab of the place where their minority exists than to aid a state they havent been friendly with for decades against a NATO member and risk upsetting the Americans in case things boil over .
Greece pretty much did all this OTL , just covertly . The Orthodox Church of Greece provided financial support to Serbia either with the tolerance or with the backing of the state . Greek volunteers did participate . Officially only 100 , unofficially quite a bit more , including many reservusts of the Greek army . There are also rumors that the Volunteer Guard actively participated in the atrocities in Bosnia . Some evidence must have appeared in the late 2000s , because some of the leading members were indicted but the whole thing was buried under "national security concerns" and covered up .
The whole area is an epic mess that puts the Middle East to shame . There are overlapping hates , grudges and land claims from almost everyone against almost everyone . If a general conflict erupts , it wouldnt be a typical war with 2 sides . It would be a free for all with some countries loosely aligned with each other .
Lets take Greece for example . Pro Serbian and therefore anti Croatian and Bosnian . Claims in Albania and minority issues . Pretty indifferent towards Bulgaria and probably even happy to see the state about to be named Macedonia eeaten up by Bulgaria .

imagine the mess?
BTW i was also thinking that with an escalation Romania might intervene on Bulgarian side seizing the moment to take some of the west banat area? same with Hungary for the vojvodina region. it would be the certain defeat at that point thought...

 

[presidentofyes12]

Tbh, all this foreign intervention may not even manifest ITTL save for Bulgaria, because the Yugoslavs may very well get stopped, like, ten miles from the border. They wouldn't be able to get far if the Macedonians prepared for war, just like what transpired in Slovenia. But if the Yugoslavs do manage to do vaguely well, then such intervention could manifest, though I'm not sure how willing & bold countries would be to openly participate in land grabs like this

 

[Karelian]

Tbh, all this foreign intervention may not even manifest ITTL save for Bulgaria, because the Yugoslavs may very well get stopped, like, ten miles from the border. They wouldn't be able to get far if the Macedonians prepared for war, just like what transpired in Slovenia. But if the Yugoslavs do manage to do vaguely well, then such intervention could manifest, though I'm not sure how willing & bold countries would be to openly participate in land grabs like this

Problem is that the Albanian-majority areas in eastern Macedonia are not going anywhere, and they form a potential base of support for an uprising in Kosovo, unless occupied.
And occupying them was something the Skopje authorities would be hard-pressed to do, since VJ took everything and the kitchen sink (literally, former barracks buildings were stripped bare!) when they left the country.

As a result, the forces that cleared Tetovo of UCK - with Nato and Ukrainian mercenary pilot support - simply do not exist in early 1990s.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

If things do escalate to where it's open season on Yugoslavia's borders (external and internal) then maybe Hungary goes for the Hungarian bits of northern Serbia?

Building on this, could Hungary potentially rope in the other Visegrad states? Perhaps under the guise of a humanitarian intervention in support of the Croats?

 

[pls don't ban me]

Building on this, could Hungary potentially rope in the other Visegrad states? Perhaps under the guise of a humanitarian intervention in support of the Croats?

Hungary would be literally trying to escalate the war from south-slavs to a battle royale of all the slavs 🤣