Normandy/Brittany in a Stalemated War Scenario

Baron Bizarre

Baron Bizarre

I have here what I realize is an extremely improbable scenario, but I don't think it's quite impossible, so I'm posting it here.

I'm thinking about a situation where after D-Day, the WAllies manage to liberate Normandy and Brittany, but the Germans manage to grind them to a halt. In the East, the German manage to grind the Soviets to a halt, say, somewhere, maybe around the Dnieper. Both sides get nukes around the same time. the Americans user theirs on the Japanese, and the Germans use theirs to bring the Soviets to the negotiating table.

The war ends in a stalemate. The Germans could maybe drive the WAllies back into the sea, and the WAllies could maybe drive further on into France, but the Germans could pepper Great Britain (and maybe the US East Coast) with nukes, and Americans could do likewise to Germany, but neither side quite wants to risk it.

I realize that this is all extremely implausible, but assuming it did somehow happen, my question is: What would happen to Normandy/Brittany? Would there simply be a "rump" French Republic under Anglo-American auspices, or was there enough Breton and/or Norman "national" feeling that there would end up being separate Breton and Norman states?
 
Baron Bizarre

Baron Bizarre

Philip said:
If this scenario some how comes about, what is left of Normandy?
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That's a good question. I don't have a good sense of how big Normandy and Brittany are. I assume that they would effectively be an Anglo-American protectorate at first. Both sides would probably heavily fortify the "inner French" border.

What they would become in the long run, assuming the stalemate lasted, I'm not sure. Life there, with the Reich right over the border, would probably feel a little precarious, to say the least. I'm sure the Germans wouldn't be too thrilled about the Channel effectively becoming an Anglo-American "river".

I can think of three possibilities off the top of my head:

  1. Normandy and Brittany become a "rump" French Republic, effectively an Anglo-American satellite. I doubt such a state could maintain control over France's overseas territories, probably they would either fall under the control of either the Germans or the Anglo-Americans, or become independent.
  2. Normandy and Brittany become separate republics, again as Anglo-American satellites. This strikes me as less probable. In this scenario, they would be even less likely to maintain control of France's colonies, much as the thought of "Norman Guiana" or "Breton West Africa" amuses me.
  3. Normandy and Brittany enter into some sort of formal relationship with the United Kingdom, perhaps with the British monarch reviving the titles of Duke of Normandy" and "Duke of Brittany" (Were they ever formally renounced?). This strikes me as the least likely. Even if the Bretons and Normans went for it, it would leave the British open to the charge that they were opportunistically reclaiming territories they had lost centuries before. (Although, I don't doubt that that the Nazis would make these charges no matter what the outcome.)
 

Viper81

Any scenario requiring OTL Germany to get nukes during the war is exactly impossible. So long as they are fighting the USSR, US, and UK at the same time, they will not win. Period. Once the WAllies are established ashore, it's only a matter of time before Germany falls.
 
Baron Bizarre

Baron Bizarre

Viper81 said:
It is. They lacked the industrial capacity to separate U-235, their scientists had clear misconceptions about the design and construction of a bomb, and they had no reliable delivery system. Not to mention any serious work towards a bomb was halted in 1942.
https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/german-atomic-bomb-project
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That's a very interesting article, thank you for bringing it to my attention. I'm glad I had a chance to read it. To my mind, it certainly does demonstrate that the Germans getting the bomb before the war ended was indeed extremely improbable.
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

Carl Schwamberger said:
If the Allies invaded in 1942 or 43 it's very likely there would have a stalemate over winter.
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As Carl says, a temporary stalemate is entirely possible in one of the early invasion scenarios, when the US hasn't ramped up it's military yet.

Dathi THorfinnsson said:
A stalemate, for any extended time, a s impossible with the US in the war.
Once the WAllies have a foothold on the continent, they WILL expand it.
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To make this work at all, you'd have to get the US to pull out, essentially.
 

TonyA

Another question for the Baron in this sit-set-up; What's the status of Southern France? There was another invasion to speak of...
 

Carl Schwamberger

TonyA said:
... What's the status of Southern France? There was another invasion to speak of...
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Good point I'd missed. There was a entire army group set up for that one, the southern ports were capable of supporting over twenty divisions, & it would only take a extra week to send a fast troop ship or a cargo convoy to Marseilles, Toulon, or Nece rather than Brest or Cherbourg. OTL the German left a armored corps and a dozen other divisions i the sort & they were routed in two weeks. A robust 6th Army Group clearing south France sort of breaks a stalemate.
 

FillyofDelphi

Banned
TonyA said:
Another question for the Baron in this sit-set-up; What's the status of Southern France? There was another invasion to speak of...
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Operation Anvil-Dragoon, yes. Historically, it was a pretty big success; assuming the Germans stalemate or drive the WAllies out of Normandy, I fully expect any negotiated peace to involve the evacuation of what would be a booby-trapped, shell blown "We liberated the hell out of this place" region as part of a North/South armistice line/ partition. The Axis has lost the Med at this point: the Germans can't reasonably hope to secure southern France. Plus, it gives the US and UK the oppritunity to reinstate cooperative Vichy defectors, rather than the less easy to work with devGaulle to power
 
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