Sorry it took me a good long while to reply to all the posts, but it's finally here. Some of my thoughts on all of this:
I'll just suggest the Shimazu clan - bit of luck and skill uniting Kyushu, and then they could do well to get toe-holds on Honshu, etc. (Don't ask me for strategy, I play total war - that is about as far as my Japanese strategy goes).
All right. I'll look into them. Might find some hidden potential I never heard about before.
I think if there is a more open Japan, it might also be more expansionist, but not just in terms of invading Korea - dominating trade could be valuable, (trader-samurai seems like an awesome contradiction), perhaps moving to take Okinawa earlier, and the Ainu - and excluding the Chinese - Taiwan and the Philippines are valid avenues, assuming this doesn't provoke the Chinese.
At any rate, it's long been clear that pre-industrial Japan as a major power isn't as easy to pull off as some Japan fans might think. Certainly doable, but there are limiting factors both at home and abroad and any ATL Japanese leadership of the 17th century will have to grow well aware of such political tightropes.
The domestic conquests will only be possible if the country stays united enough, even without a TS to hold it together. Otherwise there's little guarantee conquering the smaller polities in the south and the north could have a lasting effect.
As for foreign conquests, I agree that eyeing the other nearby large islands and archipelagos makes sense, especially if China catches on fairly early and ensures the Japanese won't be just conquering whatever they want on Chinese shores. The Korean monarchy, though not as powerful as China, is also something I wouldn't underestimate at this particular point in time.
From what I've read and seen,
even the Koreans apparently had superior artillery to late-Sengoku Japan. This would put Japan's landgrabs against other established East Asian empires into a disadvantaged position, at least until Japan could match the firepower of its rivals. Because, honestly, even the quick spread and numerical growth of Japanese arquebusiers during the Sengoku era isn't going to cut it. Not without systematic investment into military improvements and weapon modernisation.
Taiwan would be fairly easy pickings, I agree with that. The Taiwanese natives wouldn't have much luck withstanding an overseas colonisation. The Philippines would be a bit better suited to shooing the Japanese off their shores - after all, they were already more developed at this time than any of the Taiwanese - so it would be less one-sided. There might be some potential small Japanese colony on some parts of the archipelago, or maybe newly built sea trade outposts and towns if they could hammer out a trade deal with the more powerful Filipino polities. You might potentially even end up with a fairly unique scenario, where Japanese forces duke it out with Spanish colonisers, while the Filipino are caught between the interests of these two foreign powers. Plenty of AH narrative potential, IMHO.
In short, less isolationism could lead to resource-focused expansion, to get better steel. Any victorious clan from the islands that aren't Honshu, I'd expect to have a more naval outward looking focus.
This is one type of development in a non-TS Japan that's probably fairly inevitable in the long term. I'm positive the ATL Japan would have much more sophisticated fleets, both navies and civilian/trade fleets than it had in OTL, regardless of how moderate or how aggressive this hunt for better mineral resources (or at least better steel produced overseas) gets.
This fact alone would change Japanese boat-building quite a bit. Maybe to the point that we'd see foundations being layed in a similar manner to how the foundations of the future British fleet were layed in that same century, the 1600s. No idea who the "Japanese Cromwell" (of sorts) could be, but it would be quite fascinating if we'd get Japan as an international naval player at the height of the "Age of Sail", long before the country (re)developed its OTL ocean-going tradition and capability.
In time, things like more advanced fleets, more of an oceangoing tradition and searching for colonies could lead to certain parts of the Japanese social landscape and social customs undergoing changes. Even a seemingly small change like bringing back home more fish meat from the open ocean, as opposed to the relatively off-shore sea fishing of OTL, could influence dietary, nutrition and culinary habits of the average or at least well-off Japanese classes. Who knows.
A reasonable question in my mind - could a united Japan bring the Manchu into their service? Either as Mercs, or subjugated vassals. I wouldn't go so far as to create new Japanese Clans out of them, but I'd expect a colonial Japan to encourage the creation of new clans overseas - so the coast of the Manchu could have Japanese-style fortresses, where many of the "Japanese" are actually adopted from former Manchu Clans, since their need for cavalry and cavalry archery would be much more vital to protect themselves.
It certainly isn't impossible, especially if they attempt conquest and colony building south of the Korean peninsula. The Manchu had a reputation as mercenaries at the time, so becoming something like vassals or at least a reliable pool of recruits would make sense from the Japanese perspective. Maybe the Manchu mercenaries/professionals could enjoy something of a reputation similar to that which the mercenaries of particular European nations did back in the late medieval period ?
Does anyone know if the Japanese knew of decent mineral resources on the Asian coast north of Korea?
Even if they didn't know about them, that might not stop them from trying to preemptively conquer an area and search later.
This idea has been running in my mind lately.
Ieyasu gets assassinated, Mitsunari grabs the opportunity to seize power by purging most of Ieyasu supporters, and declares himself Hideyori's regent. Hidetada took over the Tokugawa and prepares to fight Mitsunari. However, in this alternate Sekigahara, Mitsunari wins because the Eastern Army had less support. However, the campaign isn't over. This is where the Sanada comes in.
Whether it is a last minute decision or a stroke of genius, the Sanada declared against Mitsunari and secretly gathered an anti-Mitsunari coalition. Just as the Western Army is recovering, the Sanada-led coalition attacked and crushed them (Mitsunari is killed). Afterwards they steamrolled into Kyoto and took custody of Hideyori and Masayuki was proclaimed regent. Then somebody brought up the Sanada's Minamoto lineage. One event led to another, until Masayuki was convinced to take the title of Shogun for his clan.
Hm, you might be onto something here !
So Masayuki would be the ultimate winner in the shogun succession conflict in this Ieyasu-gets-killed ATL ?
Another interesting idea. What about a Japanese republic after the Shogunate period?
Glad you bring this up. It's that kind of scenario that can add a lot of diversity to the ATL situation, though it's tricky to get right without the rise of a Japanese republic feeling like it came out of the blue.
Personally, I've always liked the idea of a Japanese republic. It's trickier to do with a POD in the earlier centuries, but not entirely impossible. A 19th century POD, even in an ATL not based earlier on OTL, always feels like the right time to introduce this sort of thing, IMHO.
Though, if one would get creative but find plausible pillars to build this sort of scenario on, I suppose an 18th century divergence towards a republic could work as well. I'm not really sure how, I can't think of anything plausibly domestic to trigger this sort of development, but overall, maybeeee...
(On a sidenote, one of my shorter timelines features a Japanese republic by the 20th century, as well as a republic of Tonga and a Kingdom of Hawaii in the Pacific. IIRC, my notes had the Japanese divergence occur some time in the 19th century, probably the second half.)
I've always had a soft spot for the Japanese Christians (considering our first saint died there like the martyrs of old).
Didn't know that about Filipino saints, you learn something new every day !
But what do you mean by without the Tokugawa shogunate?
The one we knew in OTL. As simple as that. Replace it with something... well, "less boring". Even if we risk a less generally stable Japan, it might at least be a somewhat more "exciting" ATL Japan.
After the TS was set up in OTL, while things didn't go entirely dull, Japan slowly went into a period of cultural and technological stagnation for some 200 years. Sure, sure, there was an apparent flourishing of burger/bourgeois/town culture during the 18th century (in some ways ironically reminescent of European trends, as is often the case with Japan), there wasn't really that much radical social and cultural change in the country until the Bakumatsu and Meiji periods well into the 19th century.
For once, I'd like to see a Japan that, while sacrificing the perceived traditional values and fair amount of stability offered by the Tokugawa shogunate, industralises earlier (manufactories, "mills", earlier firearm refinements, early steam engine adoption, etc.), becomes a major power player earlier (at least on a regional level, maybe even just in the surrounding seas and the northern Pacific) and generally stops being all quaintly conservative until the Meiji period introduced radical changes virtually overnight.
It could be that the Imagawas unite Japan earlier and restore the Emperor like the Ashikagas before them.
An earlier return of the imperial family to prominence - now there's an interesting avenue to explore. I like it.
It could be that Oda Nobunaga unites Japan in truth and begins a modernization centuries earlier.
This might sound like an odd question, but: Could the Japanese higher nobility - including climbers and upstarts like Nobunaga and others - actually overthrow the imperial dynasty and establish a wholly new one, based on their own family connections or favoured imperial heirs ?
Or is it, for cultural and political reasons, just far too taboo in Japanese society since the creation of the imperial house ? Would everyone rebel if Nobunaga or someone else just decided to cut out the middleman of being an enabler to the imperials, and have them replaced with their own kin ?
Hell, if Toyotomi Hideyoshi didn't go off and try to conquer Korea, he could perhaps have maintained his rule over Japan. Or perhaps Japan remains a warlord-ridden land and gets colonized.
Plenty of ways to branch off and diverge events, that's for sure !
Hideyoshi's mania with overseas conquests might very well prove to be a turning point in non-Tokugawa Japan's 17th century history. Aside of the old rivalries with Korea and maybe a landgrab of bits of northern Chinese territories, is there any plausible target Hideyoshi might eye in the short term ?
For instance, how would a new policy of planned invasion and conquest alter the structure and emphasis of the existing Japanese armies and navies from the turn of the centuries ?
Or maybe Christianity becomes a far more important thing, and the southern regions become a native Christian kingdom.
Given the inroads the Jesuit order in particular was making into Japan during the 16th century, nothing is entirely out of the question. Though, even with the smaller southern kingdoms in mind, it's a bit difficult to imagine Christianity greatly taking over. It could become a popular religion, but probably not one that above half or a quarter of the local population would venerate. Still, it could see definite potential increases compared to the humbler OTL situation.
And all these result in very different Japans.
Obviously. But that's the whole point. I like the idea of a Japan that's not recognisibly close to OTL in earlier centuries. And this is fairly recent, it's just the early modern period. Not even "medieval" history. So why no try a bit of creative, earlier era Japanese AH, I thought ? Most people seem to settle only for 19th and 20th century PODs.
I've always appreciated Max Sinister's old
Chaos Timeline for daring to stack up plenty of divergences in Japan since the Middle Ages, resulting in a country still broadly familiar, but much different from the POV of an inhabitant of OTL. What we learnt of Japan's development wasn't ultra-detailed, but we did learn a fine bit of how the Japanese developed throughout the increasingly divergent centuries, in a world where there wasn't even an OTL Sengoku period.
There are two major factors that lead to the Sakoku Edict.
1. Christianity and it's potential to inflame political instability.
2. The tozama daimyo taking advantage of foreign trade to rearm and challenge the ruling authority, basically restarting the Sengoku Jidai.
Very good points. Part of the OTL resistance to outside influences came out of a fear of these two factors, so it's not something that can be entirely overlooked. The price for less isolationism might be a less politically stable Japan, at least in the short term.
I think your best bet is to look at cultural developments under the Tokugawa shogunate. From what I understand, a lot of modern Japanese culture as it is now originates in this period.
Well, I started this thread to speculate in what other directions that culture and those customs could go without the OTL Edo era shogunate influencing things. This is a crucial period to pick for a very good reason, and your own post mentions that reason.
I think your second thought should be where the center of power is. The Kanto plain is going to be big, but the Kansai area could have remained predominant.
True that.
