No WWII, what happens to Ioannis Metaxas?

[Gukpard]

Ioannis Metaxas was Greece prime minister converted dictator, responsible for the creation of the far right authoritarian-quasi fascist 4th August regime on Greece, and yes he was openly totalitarian, he openly stated "Greece since the 4th of August became an anticommunist State, an antiparliamentary State, a totalitarian State .". This dictatorship comparable to the Soviet Union, fascist Italy and Nazi Germany got invaded by the axis in 1941 and thus joined the allies, on many ways saving Metaxas image to the point that he is considered a Greek national hero for having defied the nazis even knowing they would be crushed on the process, but at the same time recognizing that his dictatorship was terrible and shouldn't return.

This made me wonder something, let's say that WWII doesn't happens and he just remains in power until he dies on the mid 1940s (he died in 1941 thanks to a heart attack, but probably due the pressure of the war), what happens after it? What is his legacy?

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

A lot would depend upon exactly what happens under his reign. Without the war he would be judged by what was happening domestically. If there were a police state I think his reputation would be a poor one; sort of like Papadopoulos and the others in the 1964 coup.

 

[Gukpard]

A lot would depend upon exactly what happens under his reign. Without the war he would be judged by what was happening domestically. If there were a police state I think his reputation would be a poor one; sort of like Papadopoulos and the others in the 1964 coup.

Let's say it goes as a totalitarian state until the 1970s then it democratises like Francoist Spain, what happens?

 

[Emperor of Pennsylvania]

Let's say it goes as a totalitarian state until the 1970s then it democratises like Francoist Spain, what happens?

Well, for one thing, I'd imagine that the partition of Cyprus wouldn't happen here.

 

[Byzantion]

Let's say it goes as a totalitarian state until the 1970s then it democratises like Francoist Spain, what happens?

It may get into a war with Turkey maybe over Cyprus.

 

[Gokbay]

Well, for one thing, I'd imagine that the partition of Cyprus wouldn't happen here.

I don't follow how that would change? Are you implying no coup in Cyprus, leading to Turkey having no casus belli to intervene? Do you suppose there would be a post-Metaxas democratic regime in Greece rather than the Junta would make the international community even more favourable to Greece and Greek Cypriots?

I suppose no Colonel Junta --> no Cypriot coup --> no justification to invade Cyprus could work or perhaps a peace could be agreed after the first invasion (generally considered a legal intervention) and so that the second invasion (generally not considered legal and caused the current division) would not happen.

 

[Lascaris]

Ioannis Metaxas was Greece prime minister converted dictator, responsible for the creation of the far right authoritarian-quasi fascist 4th August regime on Greece, and yes he was openly totalitarian, he openly stated "Greece since the 4th of August became an anticommunist State, an antiparliamentary State, a totalitarian State .". This dictatorship comparable to the Soviet Union, fascist Italy and Nazi Germany got invaded by the axis in 1941 and thus joined the allies, on many ways saving Metaxas image to the point that he is considered a Greek national hero for having defied the nazis even knowing they would be crushed on the process, but at the same time recognizing that his dictatorship was terrible and shouldn't return.

This made me wonder something, let's say that WWII doesn't happens and he just remains in power until he dies on the mid 1940s (he died in 1941 thanks to a heart attack, but probably due the pressure of the war), what happens after it? What is his legacy?

His reputation is problematic to begin with, although I'd say Franco's Spain may be a better comparison. Without the war he still dies on schedule in early 1941. He lacks a successor and his dictactorship derived all her support from the throne. George II had installed him, Metaxas was himself personally loyal to the throne and a close friend of George's father and Metaxas main followers in both the army and government also staunchly royalist. George II can try as he did in OTL to continue the dictatorship but long term that is problematic. As seen in the 1936 election the population was about evenly split between republicans and royalists with the communists largely negligible in size and the dictactorship had caused reaction even among the royalists.

The only question is how hard the dictatorship goes down and if it (hopefully) takes the throne with it.

 

[Emperor of Pennsylvania]

I don't follow how that would change? Are you implying no coup in Cyprus, leading to Turkey having no casus belli to intervene? Do you suppose there would be a post-Metaxas democratic regime in Greece rather than the Junta would make the international community even more favourable to Greece and Greek Cypriots?

I suppose no Colonel Junta --> no Cypriot coup --> no justification to invade Cyprus could work or perhaps a peace could be agreed after the first invasion (generally considered a legal intervention) and so that the second invasion (generally not considered legal and caused the current division) would not happen.

This POD would butterfly away the Regime of the Colonels, which would butterfly the clusterfuck that was the partition of Cyprus.

 

[Byzantion]

This POD would butterfly away the Regime of the Colonels, which would butterfly the clusterfuck that was the partition of Cyprus.

So the right winged Metaxas regime might have similiar ideology and Nationalist narrative as the Colonels. So it might be a war possible with Turkey in the Aegean or elswhere where interests overlap. It had been not too long time distance between them two regimes. Natioalist rhetoric could be from both sides and sabre rattling.

 

[Gokbay]

So the right winged Metaxas regime might have similiar ideology and Nationalist narrative as the Colonels. So it might be a war possible with Turkey in the Aegean or elswhere where interests overlap. It had been not too long time distance between them two regimes. Natioalist rhetoric could be from both sides and sabre rattling.

Colonels did not cause a full war with Turkey. In fact their junta collapsed.

I don't see how Metaxas being in their place changes it.

 

[Gukpard]

Colonels did not cause a full war with Turkey. In fact their junta collapsed.

I don't see how Metaxas being in their place changes it.

Who would lead the metaxists on the 1970s?

 

[Seandineen]

George II is less likely to promote open fascism, as much as a benign authoritism.

 

[Emperor of Pennsylvania]

So the right winged Metaxas regime might have similiar ideology and Nationalist narrative as the Colonels. So it might be a war possible with Turkey in the Aegean or elswhere where interests overlap. It had been not too long time distance between them two regimes. Natioalist rhetoric could be from both sides and sabre rattling.

Yes, but the Cypriot coup happened in the way that it did due to instability in the Regime of the Colonels.

 

[Lascaris]

Colonels did not cause a full war with Turkey. In fact their junta collapsed.

I don't see how Metaxas being in their place changes it.

Metaxas would had been 103 years old in 1974. He was already 70 when he died in 1941.

 

[Lascaris]

Who would lead the metaxists on the 1970s?

Who would lead them in 1941 when Metaxas dies? No designated successor, no younger generation politician or military man following in his footsteps, hell he had gotten all of 3.94% in the 1936 elections. How does his regime, the royal dictactorship rather, survive the year?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Ioannis Metaxas was Greece prime minister converted dictator, responsible for the creation of the far right authoritarian-quasi fascist 4th August regime on Greece, and yes he was openly totalitarian, he openly stated "Greece since the 4th of August became an anticommunist State, an antiparliamentary State, a totalitarian State .". This dictatorship comparable to the Soviet Union, fascist Italy and Nazi Germany got invaded by the axis in 1941 and thus joined the allies, on many ways saving Metaxas image to the point that he is considered a Greek national hero for having defied the nazis even knowing they would be crushed on the process, but at the same time recognizing that his dictatorship was terrible and shouldn't return.

This made me wonder something, let's say that WWII doesn't happens and he just remains in power until he dies on the mid 1940s (he died in 1941 thanks to a heart attack, but probably due the pressure of the war), what happens after it? What is his legacy?

He perfects the version of the Greek version of the Roman salute

His government continues on as a form of 'fascist government' after his death and like Spain begins to mellow out in the late 60s early 70s and embraces tourism becoming a popular locations for middle class German and British people before the package holiday opens the country up to the working class from across the richer European nations and by the 1990s it (and Spain) is competing with Beirut and Libya as a Holiday destination for the British/French and German holiday makers.

 

[Gukpard]

Who would lead them in 1941 when Metaxas dies? No designated successor, no younger generation politician or military man following in his footsteps, hell he had gotten all of 3.94% in the 1936 elections. How does his regime, the royal dictactorship rather, survive the year?

Alexandros Koryzis took over OTL, so he can take over under similar grounds

 

[Lascaris]

Alexandros Koryzis took over OTL, so he can take over under similar grounds

Koryzis was governor of the bank of Greece, installed as prime minister by the king. He had no ideological connection to Metaxas, but then not many did in the first place. And was not involved into politics himself. He was personally a moderate royalist that was on good relations with the republicans and chosen for that by George II over elevating any of Metaxas ministers to power. Koryzis can be seen as effectively the first stem by the king towards easing the regime into return of parliamentary rule.

 

[Gukpard]

Koryzis was governor of the bank of Greece, installed as prime minister by the king. He had no ideological connection to Metaxas, but then not many did in the first place. And was not involved into politics himself. He was personally a moderate royalist that was on good relations with the republicans and chosen for that by George II over elevating any of Metaxas ministers to power. Koryzis can be seen as effectively the first stem by the king towards easing the regime into return of parliamentary rule.

I see, what about Konstantinos Maniadakis, the minister of public order according to wikipedia?

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

Part of the problem here is that we are assuming no World War II. That is a completely different world. There would have been tension with Turkey and with Italian Albania. Absent the world conflict I think the chances of regional conflicts in the Balkans would have been high. IF Greece won then I think Metaxes would have been a nationalist hero. Sort of a patron saint of the success. If it failed I think he would have been largely forgotten.