There's been some debate over whether the Russian Revolution was still likely to occur even if WWI didn't happen in 1914. Some people think it would've occurred at the same timeframe or slightly later even without WWI (with a few people even believing that WWI delayed the revolution), while others believe that without WWI, it would've never happened (or at least not until the 1930s). Let's just assume that WWI does not occur in the 1910s but that the Tsar still gets overthrown by a revolution in the late 1910s or early 1920s. How would the German Empire and Austria-Hungary react to this event? In particular, how would they react if the Russian part of Poland gained autonomy or independence during the revolution?
No WWI in 1914: How would the German Empire and Austria-Hungary react to a successful Russian Revolution?
- Thread starter Ambusher11
- Start date
REDmountain2010
Banned
well if we assume that somehow the revolution still Happened, they Probably watch from sidelines but won't help the reds which will probably lose the revolution
Experts on the subject like Dominic Lieven make clear that if the Revolution had gone that way in 1905, the Germans would have intervened. The Kaiser gave promises to the Baltic Germans that in such a situation they'd have the protection of the German Army.
I think the likelihood is that if the Revolution remains moderate - likely a neutering of the Monarchies power even further rather than a republic, the international reaction will be muted. If it swings violently to the left, then a European coalition led by the Germans marches in and restores order.
UK, Germany and AH would intervene in the west, Japan and UK, troops from India and British Army in India, would intervene in the Far East. US might help in the East with Japan, but might not have anything in the West until Specter of Bolshevism and Communisum raise their heads. They would worry about the the revolution spreading to their countries with Japan maybe being opurtunistic.
If it's the February Revolution I don't think any of the powers intervene. I also think in a no WWI timeline this revolution results in some Romanov being elevated to Tsardom as a mostly Constitutional monarch and a government of Kadets and moderate Socialists. None of the Powers could object to that. With no WWI there is no October-ish Revolution to scare the crap out of the Powers.
Germany and A-H would carbe out puppet states in ukraine, moldova, belarus, poland, finland and the baltics
The problem with “let’s assume this unlikely event happens anyway, with no explanation of how/why it happens “ is that’s e are all talking different “histories“ and thus all coming from different positions and can’t have a rational discussion.
We need to know what for the revolution takes and what the triggering event is as well as how WW1 was avoided and how all the various countries get along.
For instance ,
The US may help the Czar if it looks like communist are going yo otherwise win.
GB may decide to stay out of it if Germany goes in if the tension is high between them.
GB and Germany and others could decide to step in to save the Family and to prevent anyone getting ideas about overthrowing the “rightful ruler”
The US may send aid the revolution if it looks to be democratic and the Czar deserves to be outed.
France and GB may support one side just to oppose Germany and AH if those two support the other.
And on and on and on.
Without an understanding on what our starting point is we can’t predict anything or have any sort of rational/logical discussion. You cant. Predict the flight path of an airplane if you don’t have a starting point.
I know folks just want to “have fun with a topic” but this tendency to blow past how something starts is not a good idea. This goes double for things like this we have to have TWO unlikely events back to back happen. 1) no WW1, and 2) A revolution. And remember that IOTL the revolution was pushed by two tgings that came directly out of WW1, the death toll in Russia from the war and Germany backing the revolution leaders to one degree or another. Add in a weakened and spread out and busy army that otherwise is more likely to put the revolution down in short order and sudd a LOT of things need to change for this to happen.
So we need to understand how WW1 was avoided, This tells us how the countries are getting along and we MUST know that as political considerations are going to drive a country’s response.
We Need to know what started the Revolution and what form it is taking. So we understand how the citizens of other countries will see it. IOTL GB didn’t want the Czar’s family as they at least in small part feared that their citizens would get upset at the British royal family.
So we need at least a basic explanation of how we got here. Otherwise latterly ANYTHING could happen
I could with perfect honesty argue, Everyone stays out, everyone helps the Czar, Everyone helps the revolution, We see a split wher GB F and the US back the Czar while G and AH back the revolution, or GB,F, and the US back the revolution while G &AH back the Czar.
I could also argue the the US, and France back the revolution while G, AH and GB back the Czar. And every sing one of these arguments would make sense depending on how WW1 was avoided, how the countries are getting along (do we still have an arms race? etc) how the economy of any given country is doing and what form the revolution takes and how/why it started.
And we have NOTHING to base any of this on so we are all free to choose for ourselves. Which makes a rational discussion impossible.
So I politely suggest the OP pick his fav way for this to start and give. Us the following
How was WW1 avoided and what is the relationship between GB,F,G,AH and the US (in a nutshell). How is the economy doing and what started the revolution and what. form is the revolution taking and who seams to be likely to win if no one steps in.
This doesn’t take much
for Example
WW1 is avoided because German does not write a blank check and tells AH they are on their own. This happens in part because Germany gave up the Naval arms race with GB as it was costing to much
Meanwhile AH is continuing to implode as its economy has issues and it keeps play hardball in the Bulkans. Russia has not stepped in directly as it has no “cause“ but is channeling a LOT of money and resources to the Balkans to screw with AH. Meanwhile the Czars son dies and the Czar dies some political trick to try and secure a successor but picks someone the Russian population hates.
At tgis point the economy of Russia (never good) is in trouble because the cost of supporting the mess in the Balkans. A group of mothers with starving children protests in a major city. The local government over reacts and sends in the troops, men in the city see the troops roughing up the poor mothers and their sick and dyeing children start to throw stones at the army and that ends when the army massacres everyone.
All of this is caught on Film and the photos spread like wildfire around the world and appear in newspapers everywhere.
With no WW1 and cut back spending on the Navy Germany has a booming ec and is building a bigger Army because it feels surrounded.
France has an ok economy but not like Germany’s and is very upset about the Large Army Germany is building so tries to build one as big, damaging their economy with military spending and upsetting citizens when they start a peacetime draft to get this large army.
GB no longer in an naval arms race can slow the spending a bit, it also starts to distance itself a bit from France because they fear France will use its large army and Germanys build up to justify starting a war with Germany in order to get back A-L. So GB starts pulling back it’s support and tells France if France starts a war it is on its own.
This upsets France as they see it as a betrayal.
Meanwhile the US just continues on its own increasing it manufacturing and having a booming economy but starting to see the Union movement spread as the Robber Barons make life hard for working stiffs.
Now that would give us a logical starting point for discussion what happens with the revolution. You don’t need to use this but you really need to give us something to work from.
We need to know what for the revolution takes and what the triggering event is as well as how WW1 was avoided and how all the various countries get along.
For instance ,
The US may help the Czar if it looks like communist are going yo otherwise win.
GB may decide to stay out of it if Germany goes in if the tension is high between them.
GB and Germany and others could decide to step in to save the Family and to prevent anyone getting ideas about overthrowing the “rightful ruler”
The US may send aid the revolution if it looks to be democratic and the Czar deserves to be outed.
France and GB may support one side just to oppose Germany and AH if those two support the other.
And on and on and on.
Without an understanding on what our starting point is we can’t predict anything or have any sort of rational/logical discussion. You cant. Predict the flight path of an airplane if you don’t have a starting point.
I know folks just want to “have fun with a topic” but this tendency to blow past how something starts is not a good idea. This goes double for things like this we have to have TWO unlikely events back to back happen. 1) no WW1, and 2) A revolution. And remember that IOTL the revolution was pushed by two tgings that came directly out of WW1, the death toll in Russia from the war and Germany backing the revolution leaders to one degree or another. Add in a weakened and spread out and busy army that otherwise is more likely to put the revolution down in short order and sudd a LOT of things need to change for this to happen.
So we need to understand how WW1 was avoided, This tells us how the countries are getting along and we MUST know that as political considerations are going to drive a country’s response.
We Need to know what started the Revolution and what form it is taking. So we understand how the citizens of other countries will see it. IOTL GB didn’t want the Czar’s family as they at least in small part feared that their citizens would get upset at the British royal family.
So we need at least a basic explanation of how we got here. Otherwise latterly ANYTHING could happen
I could with perfect honesty argue, Everyone stays out, everyone helps the Czar, Everyone helps the revolution, We see a split wher GB F and the US back the Czar while G and AH back the revolution, or GB,F, and the US back the revolution while G &AH back the Czar.
I could also argue the the US, and France back the revolution while G, AH and GB back the Czar. And every sing one of these arguments would make sense depending on how WW1 was avoided, how the countries are getting along (do we still have an arms race? etc) how the economy of any given country is doing and what form the revolution takes and how/why it started.
And we have NOTHING to base any of this on so we are all free to choose for ourselves. Which makes a rational discussion impossible.
So I politely suggest the OP pick his fav way for this to start and give. Us the following
How was WW1 avoided and what is the relationship between GB,F,G,AH and the US (in a nutshell). How is the economy doing and what started the revolution and what. form is the revolution taking and who seams to be likely to win if no one steps in.
This doesn’t take much
for Example
WW1 is avoided because German does not write a blank check and tells AH they are on their own. This happens in part because Germany gave up the Naval arms race with GB as it was costing to much
Meanwhile AH is continuing to implode as its economy has issues and it keeps play hardball in the Bulkans. Russia has not stepped in directly as it has no “cause“ but is channeling a LOT of money and resources to the Balkans to screw with AH. Meanwhile the Czars son dies and the Czar dies some political trick to try and secure a successor but picks someone the Russian population hates.
At tgis point the economy of Russia (never good) is in trouble because the cost of supporting the mess in the Balkans. A group of mothers with starving children protests in a major city. The local government over reacts and sends in the troops, men in the city see the troops roughing up the poor mothers and their sick and dyeing children start to throw stones at the army and that ends when the army massacres everyone.
All of this is caught on Film and the photos spread like wildfire around the world and appear in newspapers everywhere.
With no WW1 and cut back spending on the Navy Germany has a booming ec and is building a bigger Army because it feels surrounded.
France has an ok economy but not like Germany’s and is very upset about the Large Army Germany is building so tries to build one as big, damaging their economy with military spending and upsetting citizens when they start a peacetime draft to get this large army.
GB no longer in an naval arms race can slow the spending a bit, it also starts to distance itself a bit from France because they fear France will use its large army and Germanys build up to justify starting a war with Germany in order to get back A-L. So GB starts pulling back it’s support and tells France if France starts a war it is on its own.
This upsets France as they see it as a betrayal.
Meanwhile the US just continues on its own increasing it manufacturing and having a booming economy but starting to see the Union movement spread as the Robber Barons make life hard for working stiffs.
Now that would give us a logical starting point for discussion what happens with the revolution. You don’t need to use this but you really need to give us something to work from.
arrestedcorn
Banned
Well... a Russian Rev. may not even happen if there's no WW1. WW1 exacerbated Imperial Russia's problems and made it possible for revolution. Without that, revolution does not happen in the 1910s.
A "February Revolution without WWI" scenario (which is incredibly doubtful without the Tsar throwing into another doomed war like the 1905 war with Japan) may end up triggering WWI in this scenario--a German intervention to protect the Baltic Germans or an Austrian intervention in Ukraine may well be taken by France as aggression against their ally (and an opportunity to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine).
Couldn't we see a kind of spanish civil war type scenario? Germany-Austria-ottomans backing reactionaries with britain/france backing the reform minded side/democratic side.
As others have said the idea that either the February or October Revolutions would happen without a war is very unlikely. But there is a reason why Lieven and others think some sort of major civil strife was very, very likely and it's entirely plausible that that could spiral into a multi way civil war between urban based revolutionaries, Tsarist loyalists and moderate liberals.
Seems to me the trigger for a Russian revolution could be very small indeed. Suppose somehow, boys being boys, Alexis decides to test his limits and suffers what to all appearances is a minor accident. Except it isn't. There's slow internal bleeding that presents as vague abdominal difficulties and it's undiagnosed until it's too late. With his death, Rasputin is at once discredited. The regnant branch of the Romanovs is cast into complete disrepute for allowing the charlatan/degenerate into the innermost court circles.
A cabal of nobles and higher ranking officials present Nicholas II with an ultimatum: abdicate now, in favor of someone who will accept a constitution (Michael, perhaps? or the Grand Duke Nicholas?), or the monarchy will be abolished. Faced with that choice, Nicholas chooses abdication and goes into exile with his wife and daughters to one of Europe's more conservative nations (perhaps Spain?). The monarchy is reduced to figurehead status.
Here's where the ripple effects come in:
A cabal of nobles and higher ranking officials present Nicholas II with an ultimatum: abdicate now, in favor of someone who will accept a constitution (Michael, perhaps? or the Grand Duke Nicholas?), or the monarchy will be abolished. Faced with that choice, Nicholas chooses abdication and goes into exile with his wife and daughters to one of Europe's more conservative nations (perhaps Spain?). The monarchy is reduced to figurehead status.
Here's where the ripple effects come in:
- If the timing is right, Austria-Hungary will be just getting used to the idea that Franz Joseph is not around any more. That would make the transition to a more constitutional, if not outright federalized, empire of sorts a sight easier. Sure, the Magyars would kick and scream, but they're not well suited to be able to go it alone.
- In Germany, it would come down to "If the Russians can do it, why can't we?" You may well see an upwelling of public opinion demanding a no-nonsense constitution curtailing the power of the monarch and the chancellor, and greatly reducing the overarching influence of Prussia. Think: Weimar Republic with a politically neutered monarchy.