No WWI: impact on the Ottoman Empire

[The History Man]

The Ottoman Empire had been in decline in the years leading up to WWI. It had lost its territories in the Balkans and in North Africa and the Young Turk Revolution of 1908 had forced Sultan Abdul Hamid to restore the constitution, recall Parliament and schedule an election. Following defeat in the war, the Ottoman Empire was partitioned under the terms of the Treaty of Sevres in 1920 and, two years later, the sultanate was abolished and Turkey became a republic under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

Had WWI not taken place, the Ottoman Empire would have remained in control of a significant part of the Arabian Peninsula (the western edge of what is now Saudi Arabia and most of modern-day Iraq would have fallen within the Empire's boundaries). Assuming that the Ottoman Empire manages to hold onto its Arab lands in the face of possible revolts, there is potential for it to become one of the wealthiest countries in the world once oil reserves are discovered. A present-day Ottoman Empire might be in the same position as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in terms of national wealth.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

The Ottoman Empire had been in decline in the years leading up to WWI. It had lost its territories in the Balkans and in North Africa and the Young Turk Revolution of 1908 had forced Sultan Abdul Hamid to restore the constitution, recall Parliament and schedule an election. Following defeat in the war, the Ottoman Empire was partitioned under the terms of the Treaty of Sevres in 1920 and, two years later, the sultanate was abolished and Turkey became a republic under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

Had WWI not taken place, the Ottoman Empire would have remained in control of a significant part of the Arabian Peninsula (the western edge of what is now Saudi Arabia and most of modern-day Iraq would have fallen within the Empire's boundaries). Assuming that the Ottoman Empire manages to hold onto its Arab lands in the face of possible revolts, there is potential for it to become one of the wealthiest countries in the world once oil reserves are discovered. A present-day Ottoman Empire might be in the same position as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in terms of national wealth.

You mean per capita, right? It might be better off actually. Turkey is an industrialized country. Having access to that much oil would also give them much greater bargaining power with the Europeans.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

The Ottoman Empire had been in decline in the years leading up to WWI. It had lost its territories in the Balkans and in North Africa and the Young Turk Revolution of 1908 had forced Sultan Abdul Hamid to restore the constitution, recall Parliament and schedule an election. Following defeat in the war, the Ottoman Empire was partitioned under the terms of the Treaty of Sevres in 1920 and, two years later, the sultanate was abolished and Turkey became a republic under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

Had WWI not taken place, the Ottoman Empire would have remained in control of a significant part of the Arabian Peninsula (the western edge of what is now Saudi Arabia and most of modern-day Iraq would have fallen within the Empire's boundaries). Assuming that the Ottoman Empire manages to hold onto its Arab lands in the face of possible revolts, there is potential for it to become one of the wealthiest countries in the world once oil reserves are discovered. A present-day Ottoman Empire might be in the same position as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in terms of national wealth.

The Ottoman Empire would be troubled by internal issues due to conservative vs reformist tensions, the Young Turks would try to reform the empire into a more Western state while the conservatives would refuse change. It would probably fail to modernize properly, there had been a lot of tentatives to modernize the Ottomans yet by WW1 they had mostly failed.
Oil would be interesting however it could end up in hands of foreign businessmen, in good part German since they are allies. Oilfields weren't particularly developed at the time AFAIK, it was only much later that the ME became a major productor.
Its future would also depend on what happens internationally, IMO a better way of making the Ottomans survive is making it not participate in WW1.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Most likely falls apart, but with lines being based on local nationalisms/sectarian borders so more "organic" than OTL's post-ottoman ME.

 

[Lalli]

Most likely falls apart, but with lines being based on local nationalisms/sectarian borders so more "organic" than OTL's post-ottoman ME.

Possible but probably not inevitable. Pretty many Arab tribes were quite pro-Ottomans or at least didn't care about that at all.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Most likely falls apart, but with lines being based on local nationalisms/sectarian borders so more "organic" than OTL's post-ottoman ME.

Empires don't fall apart so easily, the most rebellious parts of the empire often were unable to secede without outside help, the Arabs aren't as enthusiastic about dying for independence as the Bulgarians, Greeks, etc. did.

 

[Lalli]

Empires don't fall apart so easily, the most rebellious parts of the empire often were unable to secede without outside help, the Arabs aren't as enthusiastic about dying for independence as the Bulgarians, Greeks, etc. did.

And Greeks, Bulgarians and Serbs needed some outside help achieve their freedom. And it took them several decades to divide Ottoman Balkans territories.

And with Arabs problem is that they are not really intrested to fight for their independence and they mostly saw themselves as bunch of tribes which had really complicated relationships and Ottoman central government was good to play with that. There wasn't such strong Arab nationalism as in Balkans.

 

[Vinization]

@Sarthak

 

[duckie]

Hmmm, how would the development of Israel go? Instead of the Balfour declaration, an steady but slow stream of zionist settlers and time to grow. Nb. I think that over time the Israeli's and the Christians in the Levant (Lebanon) would like to have independence.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Hmmm, how would the development of Israel go? Instead of the Balfour declaration, an steady but slow stream of zionist settlers and time to grow. Nb. I think that over time the Israeli's and the Christians in the Levant (Lebanon) would like to have independence.

Zionism existed but they won't reach anything near OTL (even IOTL they had a majority of the population only in parts of Israel), despite all the settlers and being independent from the beginning Israel had considerable problems fighting off the Arabs, the Ottoman army is likely much better than these ones. The Christians in Lebanon and Armenia were there for a while yet they didn't prove to be particularly threatening to the Ottomans.

 

[Odinson]

Hmmm, how would the development of Israel go? Instead of the Balfour declaration, an steady but slow stream of zionist settlers and time to grow. Nb. I think that over time the Israeli's and the Christians in the Levant (Lebanon) would like to have independence.

If there is no World War I, I do not think an Israel will form in this timeline. Yes, there are waves of Jewish settlers coming into Palestine at this time, but there is no Holocaust to encourage massive immigration to the region. In this world, Palestine will likely be an Arab majority province with a large minority of Jews.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

If there is no World War I, I do not think an Israel will form in this timeline. Yes, there are waves of Jewish settlers coming into Palestine at this time, but there is no Holocaust to encourage massive immigration to the region. In this world, Palestine will likely be an Arab majority province with a large minority of Jews.

They might try to found Israel somewhere else if they can’t establish it in the Levant.

 

[Pax_Nihil]

Provided the best thing that could assuage the restless minorities happens (idk what that would be in particular but hey I'm riffin' here) and also a unifying pan-Ottoman identity develops, the Empire should be well-placed to become incredibly wealthy and if it behaves somewhat like s fusion of secular pre-current-weirdness modern Turkey and Saudi Arabia the money from oil and gas revenues should allow it to have a high standard of living and potentially not have any major problems provided it avoids wars (I can't see the Porte launching any tbh) and diversifies its economy to avoid the fate of other countries that rely on a single resource.

In my opinion no WW1 should lead to s world with a smaller Ottoman Empire but a better overall trend for the entirety of the Middle East, which obviously would percolate out into the rest of the world. Less strife means more life to live for more people which should always be considered a net positive development for all mankind.

 

[athgtq16129]

Also, without WW1 ocurring, isn't another full-blown Ottoman-Russia war inevitable in the long-term?

 

[Iam9Begea]

Also, without WW1 ocurring, isn't another full-blown Ottoman-Russia war inevitable in the long-term?

Not inevitable. As long as the Ottomans can tie the security of the Straits to Western Powers in an alternate Montrox type of Treaty, yhe Russians cant attack them. If an alternate WW2 (in this case WW1) happens Russia might invade Ottomans, but they could also end up on the same side.

 

[NoMommsen]

...
Had WWI not taken place, the Ottoman Empire would have ...

... been ripped apart with its little asia minor, caucasian and arabic parts likely been 'vassalized' by the greta and big powers of the time:

France, Germany, Britain, Russia, Austria possibly through intermediates as Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Persia).​

In the process the german goverment(s) likely throwing the ottomans under the bus for 'better understandings' with the other big and great powers.

There won't be any Ottoman Empire woth the name anymore in due time.

 

[jlckansas]

What does the UK, France, Italy Germany, Austro Hungary, and Russia get out of it? UK vs Russia, AH wants to prevent things happening in their sphere of interest, Germany wants to be thought of as a mediator and have their place. An example would be France would want something out of it, they might not back a German/AH play if Russia threatened the straits and UK would not want the Russians to have any access to the Med, but they wouldn't help Russia either.

 

[Odinson]

unifying pan-Ottoman identity

I don't think this arrises in a world without WW1 anytime soon because the CUP have already taken power and have been enforcing a Turkic identity rather than a pan Ottoman one as a reaction to the multicultural Ottoman Empire of the last few hundred years. I could see the Ottoman Empire spending the 1920s dealing with low intensity rebellions from the Arabian peninsula as Arab nationalism rises as a direct reaction to the Turkization of the empire where Arabic language and culture is suppressed. Even without the British or French inflaming tension, the Arab Revolt might occur in this timeline on a delayed schedule.

 

[Pax_Nihil]

I don't think this arrises in a world without WW1 anytime soon because the CUP have already taken power and have been enforcing a Turkic identity rather than a pan Ottoman one as a reaction to the multicultural Ottoman Empire of the last few hundred years. I could see the Ottoman Empire spending the 1920s dealing with low intensity rebellions from the Arabian peninsula as Arab nationalism rises as a direct reaction to the Turkization of the empire where Arabic language and culture is suppressed. Even without the British or French inflaming tension, the Arab Revolt might occur in this timeline on a delayed schedule.

Yeah but letting the Arabs go isn't the same as losing Mesopotamia as well as the eastern coastline strip it ruled in the Persian Gulf (which contains all the oil! (or could easily be secured hinterland-wise by a quick annexation of land in the nebulous eastern Arabian border areas of the 20th century)).

 

[Lalli]

Hmmm, how would the development of Israel go? Instead of the Balfour declaration, an steady but slow stream of zionist settlers and time to grow. Nb. I think that over time the Israeli's and the Christians in the Levant (Lebanon) would like to have independence.

There would be still some migration from Russia but without nazis and other extremely antisemitic regimes rising to power flux to Palestine is not that massive. Without Holocaust survivors coming to Palestine it would remain as Arab majority altough with very big Jewish minority. Things would are still in good control of Ottomans. Since there is not much chances to find Jewish state Zionism probably fades to obscurity.

They might try to found Israel somewhere else if they can’t establish it in the Levant.

Doubtful unless European powers or Americans are willingful to give support for that and I don't think that happening. And I have not seen there ever being serious support for establishing Jewish state whatever place. With my knowledge Zionists were mainly intrested about Palestine. If it fails it hardly see success elsewhere. Yes, there was some suggestions with Uganda but why Jews would move there?

Also, without WW1 ocurring, isn't another full-blown Ottoman-Russia war inevitable in the long-term?

Hardly. Ottomans have still pretty good support of Western powers and after finding oil they don't want see Ottomans being too much messed. Even Nicholas II is not stupid enough go for with Britain over the straits. And it might too mean war with Germany and A-H.