No Truman Doctrine & Marshall Plan

[Pikers3]

What would happen if the US after world war 2 had another bout of isolationism or didn't want to bail out the europen economies through the Marshall plan.
I did some research and it seems that without this France, Italy, Greece and Turkey would of easily become communist within a few years. Also due to the bankrupting of britian we could have seen a communist Britian.
what would the world look like now?

 

[The Kiat]

I'd like to point out that just because the communist take over or are voted in, doesn't mean that country will go over to the Soviets. San Marino had a communist party in government during the late 40s and most of the 50s. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_San_Marino#Post-War_period_and_modern_times

 

[T3h_shammy]

And look at Tito. He managed to remain pretty independent of the USSR.

 

[Typo]

Turkey? France? Italy maybe, Greece probably. Britain: no.

 

[Fibis]

Marshall Plan

From a European viewpoint the Marshal plan was the most important US foreign policy decision in the 20th centaury, including the decision to fight the Germans directly (the USSR would of eventually beat them anyway).
If there was no Marshal plan Europe would have detiriated into 3rd world back water. The Marshal was essential to the recovery of Western Europe, no German economic miracle would of occurred and probably no EU. The USSR would have not felt any pressure to try and engage in a positive manner in Eastern and Central Europe which would also stagnate.
OH and as a very large chunk of the Marshal Plan ended up buying American Goods and Services Economic growth in the USA would not have been as high reducing prosperity

 

[Alratan]

The Marshall Plan was very important to Europe in the short term, but was damaging in the long run, by making them dependent on American industries and standards, and opening their markets to US penetration.

If Western Europe stays capitalist, they will be substantially poorer for 10 years and then will gradually become wealthier than OTL. The US will be significantly poorer in the long run as well.

 

[arctic warrior]

What would happen if the US after world war 2 had another bout of isolationism or didn't want to bail out the europen economies through the Marshall plan.
I did some research and it seems that without this France, Italy, Greece and Turkey would of easily become communist within a few years. Also due to the bankrupting of britian we could have seen a communist Britian.
what would the world look like now?

Following the Czech coup 1948 Italy was feared to go next during elections in April 1948 and then Denmark securing Soviet access to the North Sea.
France was also expected to go communist.

Greece would probably be thrown into civil war.

If Truman don't go tough on the Soviets and don't encourage the Europeans to take part in their own defences as well as pulling out troops (I expect) and there is no Marshall plan - well much of Europe is facing an uncertain future.

One effect would be a Sweden led Scandinavian Defense Union as the threat would be percieved as purely Soviet and with no one else to turn to... Denmark and Norway wouldn't love it but would need it.

The thing is whats happening in Germany? Do the US pull its troops out leaving occupation to the other former Allied powers?
And how do these rearm, robbed of US arms and certainly not able to buy from the Soviets (and not wanting even if Denmark tried when beginning to rebuild its armed forces in the 1945-48 period)
And everybody is short of money even if Britain have an arms surplus to sell whos able to buy cash?

Perhaps Stalin will grab the change and go for???

 

[Typo]

From a European viewpoint the Marshal plan was the most important US foreign policy decision in the 20th centaury, including the decision to fight the Germans directly (the USSR would of eventually beat them anyway).
If there was no Marshal plan Europe would have detiriated into 3rd world back water. The Marshal was essential to the recovery of Western Europe, no German economic miracle would of occurred and probably no EU. The USSR would have not felt any pressure to try and engage in a positive manner in Eastern and Central Europe which would also stagnate.
OH and as a very large chunk of the Marshal Plan ended up buying American Goods and Services Economic growth in the USA would not have been as high reducing prosperity

Europe would have recovered eventually, no Marshal plan just means it happens later, maybe the 1960s instead the 50s. The idea that of the most advanced and prosperous (even in 1945 relative to the rest of the world) would become 3rd world is just ridiculous.

France was also expected to go communist.

I think the threat was always exaggerated

Perhaps Stalin will grab the change and go for???

Stalin isn't that insane.

Barring US involvement in Europe post-WWII, some form of western European alliance is going to happen (See Brussels pact). Kinda like For All Time's Amsterdam pact.

 

[Dave Howery]

I wonder about France in this scenario. The country has been shattered by two invasions, occupied by the enemy, and then liberated by an ally who leaves right after the war is over. How is France going to drag itself up again? They can't have much of a treasury, and the government? I suppose DeGualle can still unite the country under his banner, but what kind of government will it be?

 

[The Red]

I wonder about France in this scenario. The country has been shattered by two invasions, occupied by the enemy, and then liberated by an ally who leaves right after the war is over. How is France going to drag itself up again? They can't have much of a treasury, and the government? I suppose DeGualle can still unite the country under his banner, but what kind of government will it be?

Well the Communists were the biggest party in OTL's late 40's (However they had less than a third of the vote)

Likely they'll get a much larger share in this scenario. Possibly enough to give them a majority.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

From a European viewpoint the Marshal plan was the most important US foreign policy decision in the 20th centaury, including the decision to fight the Germans directly (the USSR would of eventually beat them anyway).
If there was no Marshal plan Europe would have detiriated into 3rd world back water. The Marshal was essential to the recovery of Western Europe, no German economic miracle would of occurred and probably no EU. The USSR would have not felt any pressure to try and engage in a positive manner in Eastern and Central Europe which would also stagnate.
OH and as a very large chunk of the Marshal Plan ended up buying American Goods and Services Economic growth in the USA would not have been as high reducing prosperity

With the Marshall Plan, the US pumped capital into Europe, building European economies. Whereas the USSR sucked capital OUT of their satellites. The end result was that e.g. West Germany was FAR richer than East Germany. That's true. What's not often noticed by westerners is that East Germany and Czechoslovakia were the hi-tech centers of the Soviet Empire. Sure they lagged behind the West, but they had much better electronics, optics, machinery, etc.

That's even with stuff stolen after WWII, and a long experience of 'trading' with the USSR on terms that amount to stealing. If Western Europe hadn't had the Marshall Plan, yes, they'd be a lot poorer for at least the 50's and 60's, but they'd still have capitalist economies and access to world markets, and would be MUCH better off than the 2nd world Soviet satellites. No way, no how would they be 3rd world level.

Heck, they might be essentially as rich today as OTL.

As for no EU, if the west Europeans are on their own, they might be MORE likely to pull together and form a union.