This is, strictly speaking, a butterfly of my tl that I'm considering expanding on. I'll spare the details but suffice to say the timurid empire seems impossible at this point and the ilkhanate collapse earlier. Meaning the golden horde doesn't get smacked around and weakened for the rus to take over. In that scenario, could the GH eventually feudalize more and wind up triumphant over the rissian states? If so, what might this entail for islam and eurasia?
No Timur: What Happens To Golden Horde and Moscovy
- Thread starter AltoRegnant
- Start date
GH should survive modestly with their prevailing system until 15th century. After that either they must do 3 things:
1. Settle down as a sedentary Kingdom with at least half the populace as settlers as opposed to Nomads. A volatile persia might help in this regard as more immigrants pour into Dasht E kipchak.
2. Adopt gunpowder weapon and a strong infantry as opposed to archaic horse archers who will be at an increasing disadvantage since 14th century.
3. Absorb the Rus principalities partially if not whole because even with persian immigration the sedentary nature of Rus will inevitably mean a larger population. A direct conquest and control over orthodox majority region ala ottomans can help in this regard.
1. Settle down as a sedentary Kingdom with at least half the populace as settlers as opposed to Nomads. A volatile persia might help in this regard as more immigrants pour into Dasht E kipchak.
2. Adopt gunpowder weapon and a strong infantry as opposed to archaic horse archers who will be at an increasing disadvantage since 14th century.
3. Absorb the Rus principalities partially if not whole because even with persian immigration the sedentary nature of Rus will inevitably mean a larger population. A direct conquest and control over orthodox majority region ala ottomans can help in this regard.
Islam remains the top dog for Eurasia, Lithuania remains relevant in European politics as crusading fervor stays. Steppes might be unified earlier and incursion into Northern China by Mongol remnant will be more successful.
no, they've been replaced by the latin empire, and the desire to avoid a full on Islam screw was part of what brought me down this rabbit hole
At best they can absorb Rus States except Novgorod. But no expansion in balkans. Territory can be grabbed from Lithuania
It was already on a decline before Timur’s appearance on the scene. There was a protracted period of the internal instability and it was split into the White (Siberian) and Blue (Volga) Hordes. Totkhamysh managed to unify them with Timur’s backing but the result was not stable.
In the optimistic scenario we may assume that the GH evolves in a reasonably stable semi-sedentary state living to a great degree off the trade routes. There can be numerous scenarios of it’s further relations with the Russian princedom(s) but it worth noticing that by the time of Totkhamysh it started lagging behind its main western opponents technologically: both Princedom of Moscow and Lithuania already had (rather primitive) artillery. It is also anybody’s guess for how long the GH would be able to maintain its territorial integrity and internal order.
The GH would be very lucky to survive in a long run as a single entity. It could not “feudalize more” (whatever this is supposed to mean) because as long as it was a single state, it’s ruler was an official and mutually recognized feudal overlord of the Russian territories, except those which belonged to Lithuania.
It’s continued existence, just as the OTL scenario, would do nothing to impact status of Islam in Eurasia: the GH did not try to convert the Russian territories into Islam and the later Russian conquests did not involve a forced Tatars’ conversion into Christianity.
this was a big part of my plan; not so much the stuff with Persia but definitely settling down and converting to more not-quite-Russian feudalism.
this is actually a question I've had for a while; once arquebuses became mainstream, why weren't they paired with cavalry as the key part of most armies? it seems like the logical evolution of both lancers and horse archers
also on the plan.
I'd noticed that split in my research and was hoping a stable succession (which i'd noticed the period I'm currently writing definitely lacked) could be used to fix that problem. I was also under the impression that Timur took "bad but not unsalvageable" and made it "yep. oh yeah that's broken and it is staying that"
I see. My current plan is, due to poor luck down south, Ozbeg starts shifting attention west to get control over the Rus and beat lithuania; I take it that would be a long struggle even in that period?
Hence my TL POD starts with Tini beg. By the time of Timur the throne of GH was a musical chair at best🙃.
Yes. He was good in destroying things and he was thoroughly destroying the Tatar cities on Volga.
Oz Beg Khan formally was controlling the Rus, he was confirming accession of the Russian princes and was getting a tribute. He was also dealing harshly with the insubordinate or simply misbehaving princes: 4 princes of Tver had been executed by his order and in 1327 his (and Moscow) troops crushed rebellion in Tver.
With Lithuania and Poland situation is less clear: an army he sent against Poland was defeated. in OTL Oz Beg could not stop the Lithuanian expansion because a considerable part of his resources was spent on the war with Ilkhanate so in your TL his situation is better and perhaps his confrontation with Lithuania is more successful but this is not granted.
Except that it was a semi-sedentary state with quite a few cities.
Wouldn’t exist as in “not being created”? 😢
If we take the liberty of the GH surviving for the sake of an engaging story, but try to remain realistic in how it would evoke, would it make more sense for cryllic or the mongol script to be used long term?
Portucale
Banned
It could prevent the Russian conquest and settlement of the steppe, which was populated by Muslim Turkic nomads, and, thus, the steppe would remain Muslim.
Not sure which steppe you are talking about but the Tatars of Volga remained Muslims all the way to today.
Russian conquest of the Black Sea steppes (Crimean Khanate) is dated by the late XVIII and it is rather optimistic to expect that the GH would still be in an existence at that time.
Timur also set back Ottoman expansion by around a couple of decades, because his defeat of them let the Turks in much of Anatolia break back up into a number of separate states that then had to be reunified before the advance in Europe could continue. That might be a bigger butterfly from his not existing...
Portucale
Banned
The Volga Tatars live mostly in the forest steppe, not the steppe.
Regardless, I meant the Pontid Caspian steppe. While the Black Sea coast was only conquered in the late 18th century, the Zaporozhian and Don Cossacks had already conquered much of the steppe.
Portucale
Banned
Actually, the Russians did initially try to convert the Volga Tatars into Christianity but it failed and Catherine the Great stopped this policy.