Deleted member 1487
If there wasn't a thirty years war, what would the population of germany be today? This also assumes that there would be no world wars in the mean time.
Probably not much higher, really. There is a carrying capacity to a given territory at a given technology level, and while there is some upward give in Germany at the moment, this is hardly due to the aftereffects of the Thirty Years War. Of course we don't really understand the demographic effect of the war yet, but even the most pessimistic historians agree that the population dip had been overcome by 1750 at the latest. Germany, like many other European countries, was bleeding emigrants in the 19th century, indicating that there wasn't much of a vacuum to fill even at industrial revolution technology levels. Thus I don't think that there would be any difference.
Of course, no World Wars could have a huge impact on the German population, depending on how this came about. If three quarters of Poland are still German and the German minorities in Eastern Europe are still around, the German population could be significantly higher than OTL. But that is another story.
Of course, no World Wars could have a huge impact on the German population, depending on how this came about. If three quarters of Poland are still German and the German minorities in Eastern Europe are still around, the German population could be significantly higher than OTL. But that is another story.
Bright day
I agree with Carlton that overall the current population would be unaffected. For example before WWII the population of Czechia was roughly 10.5 million. After expelling the 1.5 million Germans there was growth true... to roughly 10.5 million.
It is not that Czechia (or Germany or any other Euro country) cannot support more people with food production. Just demands for population have been sated.
I agree with Carlton that overall the current population would be unaffected. For example before WWII the population of Czechia was roughly 10.5 million. After expelling the 1.5 million Germans there was growth true... to roughly 10.5 million.
It is not that Czechia (or Germany or any other Euro country) cannot support more people with food production. Just demands for population have been sated.
I'd say Poland/the Baltics. The Germans have had their eyes on that region for centuries.
Possibly, but not necessarily. There are mechanisms in human populations even before the invention of the pill that regulate population growthv or shrinkage. One of the most important ones is marriage age, closerly followed by basic birth control inside marriage. A population that has room to expand - in a preindustrial society that means mostly land to farm, in an industrial one resources, living space and jobs - will tend towards low marriage age and high birth numbers. A population with less wealth per capita will tend towards later marriage age and fewer children. It is quite possible that Germany's population will simply forgo the growth spurt of the 1670s-1700s.
OT: I sometimes wonder why it iw widely regarded as an automatism that a growing population means colonial expansion. Just because the Europeans did it doesn't mean everyone has to. I suspect it is rather the opposite - successful esxpansion creates resources that permit growth - and the Europeans just like to think it's a natural law because they're feeling a bit guilty about it.
TL with no 30 years war:
1618 - asbs make the catholics tolerant of protestants.
Religious freedom flourishes. After Lutheranism comes Calvinism, then religions spring up everywhere, similar to the US.
Over the next 50 years, all the smaller and bigger German states learn to accept religious freedom, more and more separation of religion and state takes place.
At the same time, a peaceful competition between the different religions begins to deliver results - sometimes its just that religions "borrow" the most convincing ideas from other religions, sometimes it's that religions make people economically more successful and therefore their believers more likely to successfully raise many children.
All that leads to more and more rational religious believes over time, thus facilitating real enlightenment (which in Germany unluckily never took place as much as in Britain or France - John Locke or Adam Smith for instance would still be regarded "evil" there).
Also, the more separated religious and secular institutions mean more scientific and economic advance, as the churches have less power to interfere into those areas. Germany doesn't fall back technologically behind France and Britain, but actually leads the development every now and then, similar to the decades around 1900.
The usual little wars, marriages, coercions, and so on lead to a growing size of the different states - only the best governed are able to survive this time, thus leading to very efficient administrative structures.
The usual little revolutions also take place, turning more and more Kingdoms and smaller monarchies into constitutional monarchies, especially following the British example.
The HRE is reformed in the 1720s into a secular entity similar to todays EU. Of the name "Holy Roman Empire of German Nationality" only the term "German Nation" stays. It becomes much more powerful than the HRE, thus uniting Gernmany more and more - economically, militarily, politically, legally, in language, and so on.
The religious patch work leads to much more tolerance towards Jews. Not to mention Hugenottes and other minorities persecuted in other parts of Europe. Similar to OTL due to the whims of more intelligent monarchs, Germany draws a lot of immigrants from all over Europe, but this time, the people are also with it and realise the advantages - technological development, cultural diversity, and so on.
Thanks to high economic growth and increased technological development, agriculture has an earlier progress and much more land is converted into farms. The German population not only keeps her high level, but even has a population boom - comparable to Britain of the time, but at much higher levels to start with.
With higher population comes more specialisation, with more specialisation comes more wealth. Germany industrialises at the same time as Britain. With many more people available, it quickly becomes an industrial giant, taking more or less the role of Britain.
Lots of German colonies help Germany to keep up its high population growth rates. Whenever food production is likely to be lower than demand, thousands or even millions of people are moved to the new colonies. Germany even manages to get a part of Australia.
This also enables German population to grow at the speed of agricultural development. Similar to China, all available and useful land is coverted into farms, and the most efficient plants, though a wider varety (rice, wheat, corn, potatoes...), become dominant.
Wars with surrounding nations generally end in favor of Germany, or they lead to a flurry of modernisation. Thus, Germany manages to get Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria (Hungary gets independent), Denmark, and a few other territories over the next 3 centuries. A similar expansion occurs in the colonies. Even wars ending in German defeat add to this, as the winners are usually just absorbed, thanks to the high population numbers, similar to China and the Mongols.
The US starts with only 8 colonies, and it doesn't expand as fast as IOTL as it is surrounded by German, French, Spanish, and a few other colonies. Still, a war similar to the 7-Years War gives them the Midwest, which means the US become another industrial giant.
Today, the US, Germany and Russia are the 3 dominating Empires, while France, Britain, Italy, Japan, China, and a few others follow at more or less distance.
Too few Germany-wank scenarios here - now the balance is a little bit better...
1618 - asbs make the catholics tolerant of protestants.
Religious freedom flourishes. After Lutheranism comes Calvinism, then religions spring up everywhere, similar to the US.
Over the next 50 years, all the smaller and bigger German states learn to accept religious freedom, more and more separation of religion and state takes place.
At the same time, a peaceful competition between the different religions begins to deliver results - sometimes its just that religions "borrow" the most convincing ideas from other religions, sometimes it's that religions make people economically more successful and therefore their believers more likely to successfully raise many children.
All that leads to more and more rational religious believes over time, thus facilitating real enlightenment (which in Germany unluckily never took place as much as in Britain or France - John Locke or Adam Smith for instance would still be regarded "evil" there).
Also, the more separated religious and secular institutions mean more scientific and economic advance, as the churches have less power to interfere into those areas. Germany doesn't fall back technologically behind France and Britain, but actually leads the development every now and then, similar to the decades around 1900.
The usual little wars, marriages, coercions, and so on lead to a growing size of the different states - only the best governed are able to survive this time, thus leading to very efficient administrative structures.
The usual little revolutions also take place, turning more and more Kingdoms and smaller monarchies into constitutional monarchies, especially following the British example.
The HRE is reformed in the 1720s into a secular entity similar to todays EU. Of the name "Holy Roman Empire of German Nationality" only the term "German Nation" stays. It becomes much more powerful than the HRE, thus uniting Gernmany more and more - economically, militarily, politically, legally, in language, and so on.
The religious patch work leads to much more tolerance towards Jews. Not to mention Hugenottes and other minorities persecuted in other parts of Europe. Similar to OTL due to the whims of more intelligent monarchs, Germany draws a lot of immigrants from all over Europe, but this time, the people are also with it and realise the advantages - technological development, cultural diversity, and so on.
Thanks to high economic growth and increased technological development, agriculture has an earlier progress and much more land is converted into farms. The German population not only keeps her high level, but even has a population boom - comparable to Britain of the time, but at much higher levels to start with.
With higher population comes more specialisation, with more specialisation comes more wealth. Germany industrialises at the same time as Britain. With many more people available, it quickly becomes an industrial giant, taking more or less the role of Britain.
Lots of German colonies help Germany to keep up its high population growth rates. Whenever food production is likely to be lower than demand, thousands or even millions of people are moved to the new colonies. Germany even manages to get a part of Australia.
This also enables German population to grow at the speed of agricultural development. Similar to China, all available and useful land is coverted into farms, and the most efficient plants, though a wider varety (rice, wheat, corn, potatoes...), become dominant.
Wars with surrounding nations generally end in favor of Germany, or they lead to a flurry of modernisation. Thus, Germany manages to get Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria (Hungary gets independent), Denmark, and a few other territories over the next 3 centuries. A similar expansion occurs in the colonies. Even wars ending in German defeat add to this, as the winners are usually just absorbed, thanks to the high population numbers, similar to China and the Mongols.
The US starts with only 8 colonies, and it doesn't expand as fast as IOTL as it is surrounded by German, French, Spanish, and a few other colonies. Still, a war similar to the 7-Years War gives them the Midwest, which means the US become another industrial giant.
Today, the US, Germany and Russia are the 3 dominating Empires, while France, Britain, Italy, Japan, China, and a few others follow at more or less distance.
Too few Germany-wank scenarios here - now the balance is a little bit better...
But wasn't Eastern Europe still fairly lightly populated - given German levels of agricultral productiveness - in the 17th and 18th centuries? (getting critically crowded by the late 19th, however, IIRC). In this scenario we definitely might see more German settlement in eastern Europe - the Polish-German population border might be pushed further east, and Hungary might have a rather larger German minority than OTL. (German-dominated Transylvania?) More Germans in Russia? I dunno - there was settlement of Germans sponsored by Catherine the Great, but the demand may have been limited on the Russian side.
Bruce
Interesting question
In your original question I agree with carlton_bach that the population in Germay propper probably would not differ mutch.
IMHO the population in other parts of the world would severly be affected, witch in itself is very interesting
If Austria does better in its wars against the Ottomans and takes a more liberal approach against Protestantism, many settlers would go for the Balkans. The Russians once feared that AH could conquer Thessalonica. Maybe Thessalonica would have a German minority? Or majority?
AH would at least see a far greater German population than OTL thus maybe stabilizing the dual-monarchy.
I also think that US population would be higher - thanks to more German immigrants. In fact, there could be German speaking states in the midwest. The same could happen in Paraguay or Southern Brasil, where many Germans settled.
OTL, Germans made up the largest part of immigrants to the US, even surpassing the amount Irish and English immigrants. More Germans - and no 30-years war could mean as much as double the population in 1648 than OTL! - would emmigrate there, from a very early time on. In fact, I suppose German emmigration pretty much stopped after 1648, because they had enough land at home for population surpluss. Without the 30years war, German population surpluss would run for the 13 colonies even prior to 1648, maybe ending up in a German majority of some states when the revolutionary war starts!
Of course, there might be German colonies. But no German state made a serious effort to get colonies for settlement OTL. Why should they do in an alternative Timeline with more emmigrants?
AH would at least see a far greater German population than OTL thus maybe stabilizing the dual-monarchy.
I also think that US population would be higher - thanks to more German immigrants. In fact, there could be German speaking states in the midwest. The same could happen in Paraguay or Southern Brasil, where many Germans settled.
OTL, Germans made up the largest part of immigrants to the US, even surpassing the amount Irish and English immigrants. More Germans - and no 30-years war could mean as much as double the population in 1648 than OTL! - would emmigrate there, from a very early time on. In fact, I suppose German emmigration pretty much stopped after 1648, because they had enough land at home for population surpluss. Without the 30years war, German population surpluss would run for the 13 colonies even prior to 1648, maybe ending up in a German majority of some states when the revolutionary war starts!
Of course, there might be German colonies. But no German state made a serious effort to get colonies for settlement OTL. Why should they do in an alternative Timeline with more emmigrants?
But how would this affect to other nations?
Sweden: would they look eastward?
Spain: No TYW drain, would they manage to keep their empire longer and the Union with Portugal?
England: more tolerant in Ireland? Earlier colonies?
France: Would they look to Italy? Maybe an attempt over Savoy or Milan?
Sweden: would they look eastward?
Spain: No TYW drain, would they manage to keep their empire longer and the Union with Portugal?
England: more tolerant in Ireland? Earlier colonies?
France: Would they look to Italy? Maybe an attempt over Savoy or Milan?
The political implications of no 30-Years' War could be very interesting. Its eventual outcome was the destruction of Protestant Germany's states through Austrian and Bavarian troops and Spanish money. That made possible France's expansion to the Rhine and Perussia's eventual dominance of Protestant Germany by allowing it to unfold into a power vacuum.
Without the war, the Austrians will either have to abandon Bohemia or accept very different terms. Either way, I would assume their interest in the northern bporder would be more limited, and a greater expansion into the southeast would be possible. Bohemia is an interesting proposition on its own, as are Mecklenburg and Hanover. Who knows how it will turn out, but I can see potential for some European middle powers here.
Poland is toast. Of course, Poland is toast *anyway*. But I don't see any large-scale German emigration. There were enough Poles to fill the country. Germans could, however, have played an earlier and more important role in Russia and more of the Balkans.
With Britain and the Netherlands in the way, I don't see any large-scale German colonisation, though something like Denmark or Sweden had would be quite possible. Hanover makes a good candidate if it can get its act (and territory) together.
The Rhineland is also an interesting place. Baden, Wurttemberg, the Palatinate or the Rhineland cities without the ravages of war could be much harder nuts to crack for the French, especially if they're not faced with the choice between an unwelcome protector from Paris and Austria bent on their destruction.
Without the war, the Austrians will either have to abandon Bohemia or accept very different terms. Either way, I would assume their interest in the northern bporder would be more limited, and a greater expansion into the southeast would be possible. Bohemia is an interesting proposition on its own, as are Mecklenburg and Hanover. Who knows how it will turn out, but I can see potential for some European middle powers here.
Poland is toast. Of course, Poland is toast *anyway*. But I don't see any large-scale German emigration. There were enough Poles to fill the country. Germans could, however, have played an earlier and more important role in Russia and more of the Balkans.
With Britain and the Netherlands in the way, I don't see any large-scale German colonisation, though something like Denmark or Sweden had would be quite possible. Hanover makes a good candidate if it can get its act (and territory) together.
The Rhineland is also an interesting place. Baden, Wurttemberg, the Palatinate or the Rhineland cities without the ravages of war could be much harder nuts to crack for the French, especially if they're not faced with the choice between an unwelcome protector from Paris and Austria bent on their destruction.
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Palatinate was in fact a leading power of the Protestants at that time. And they will inherit Bavaria and large parts of Julic-Kleve-Berg around Cologne. They could form a large power along the Rhine, able to defend against France.
I don't think that the Habsburgs would abandon Bohemia. Would be interesting though.
It all depends on how the 30years war is avoided. Maybe there would be only a minor war over Bohemia.
I agree with Poland. The Balkans would be important: Austria is not weakened here. Maybe they start an earlier reconquest of Hungary. OTL, Austria sent thousands of German settlers to the new territories. ITTL, they'd have even more settlers.
Colonization would need a strong mother country on the northern coast, or Austrian colonies some time later. Maybe after a war on Spanish succession Austria gets La Plata as a German colony?
Spain would also be much stronger to defend the Spanish Netherlands against France.