No Operation Blau May/June 1942

[lucaswillen05]

Following the victory at 2nd Kharkov Hitler/Halder decide to cancel Operation Blau (no advance into the Caucasus or to Stalingrad even though that means no oil from the Caucasus.

The Wehrmacht could still undertake local offensives such as the Blau I/Blau II plans but will otherwise husband resources and maintain strategic reserves.

To all intents and purposes this is a decision to fight for a draw/win a defensive victory. Discounting the Manhattan Project (the Atom Bomb is still an unknown quantity three years into the future is a defensive German strategy on the Eastern Front available given the resources available. Can Germany fight for a draw or a defensive victory if the decision to do so is taken in May/June 1942 or are they doomed to ultimate defeat at this point having bitten off more than they can chew in invading the Soviet Union and failing to win?

 

[UnaiB]

They could launch an alternate summer offensive towards Moscow from the Rzhev salient.

 

[Lord Wyclif]

They could launch an alternate summer offensive towards Moscow from the Rzhev salient.

Drive to Moscow, exactly what the Soviets were waiting for.

 

[pjmidd]

Problem is Fall Blau was designed to get hold of oil and grain. Without the oil, Germany just runs out of resources and its all over as per OTL. Soviets were expected an attack aimed at Moscow and that is where the reserves were. One reason the Germans got sd far as they was the time it took the Soviets to decide it was not a deception in the South and move the reserves to the battle.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Though I don't think this would be politically possible especially given the view in OKW that the Soviets were one shove away from collapse and that seizing the oil was necessary to surviving the Wallied onslaught, if they went this route then the Leningrad offensive gets the resources it needs to be launched.

Blau I/II won't happen, because they are pointless without moving on the Caucasus due to how badly they'd overstretch logistics and their already tight manpower situation to just gain useless ground. That's against the entire premise of OP's strategy. Instead the only logical move would be to focus on taking Leningrad, doing all the planned minor operations around Demyansk and Rzhev to clean up the front and pocket Soviet forces and then try to reconnect the Demyansk-Rzhev salient to eliminate the Soviet Front in the Toropets bulge (forget the name offhand, think it was Northwest Front). Then with the situation stabilized there they could go after Murmansk and cleaning up the entire region to the North and cut off L-L from that route.

 

[AdA]

Once the USA are in the war, unless someone in Berlin hopes that Japan will somehow defeat the USA alone, US industrial strengh and human potential will mean that the Axis position will get worst with time, not better, which dooms any long run defensive strategy.
Blau was meant as a decisive blow, and would only be canceled if Germany decided to strike an equaly decisive blow somewhere else.

 

[lucaswillen05]

They could launch an alternate summer offensive towards Moscow from the Rzhev salient.

They could. And very likely it would have worked out much like Kursk.

 

[lucaswillen05]

Though I don't think this would be politically possible especially given the view in OKW that the Soviets were one shove away from collapse and that seizing the oil was necessary to surviving the Wallied onslaught, if they went this route then the Leningrad offensive gets the resources it needs to be launched.

Blau I/II won't happen, because they are pointless without moving on the Caucasus due to how badly they'd overstretch logistics and their already tight manpower situation to just gain useless ground. That's against the entire premise of OP's strategy. Instead the only logical move would be to focus on taking Leningrad, doing all the planned minor operations around Demyansk and Rzhev to clean up the front and pocket Soviet forces and then try to reconnect the Demyansk-Rzhev salient to eliminate the Soviet Front in the Toropets bulge (forget the name offhand, think it was Northwest Front). Then with the situation stabilized there they could go after Murmansk and cleaning up the entire region to the North and cut off L-L from that route.

If a decision is made mot to go for the Caucasus Blau I and II can still happen but their purpose is now very different. To destroy significant Red Army forces and make some operationally useful territorial gains while avoiding the risks of going after the Caucasus Stalingrad or, alternatively Moscow. This way the Wehrmacht is operating within its# means. Agreed taking Leningrad abd the other operations you mention are all possible options along with or instead of Blau I/II which I gave as one example of the possible options.

Regarding the Western Allies, in 1942 they were simply not ready for large scale operations and certainly not in Europe/ The US in particular were woefully inexperienced and it showed in Operation Torch. The Germans survived for a long tine without the Caucasus oil and can do the same in this scenario. They will also not lose 6th Army at Stalingrad and will not have to defend the huge bulge that developed by November 1942, With carefully husbanded resources and skill they can last at least as long as they did and possibly longer.

Can they win the war? Probably no. Can they achieve a stalemate? Possible but unlikely. Getting the remorseless Stalin to agree to a separate peace will br an uphill struggle to say the least. IF however that happens it is doubtful that a landing in Western Europe will be feasible. With the success of the Manhatten Project as yet unknown the choice is between an endless blockade strategic bombing or cutting a deal with Hitler. Most likely however the Soviets will continue the war which now takes another year or more. Or until the Atom /Bomb is dropped - and it might well take more than two before Nazi Germany surrenders.

A "no Operation Blau" timeline might well be an interesting one to explore in full.

 

[Zincwarrior]

Sealion! No one will see it coming!

I'd proffer Blau was actually their best option outside of staying in defense and shoring up their positions for some backhand operations.

 

[lucaswillen05]

Sealion! No one will see it coming!

I'd proffer Blau was actually their best option outside of staying in defense and shoring up their positions for some backhand operations.

Sealion. Funny guy

Staying more on the defensive with local offensives such as Blau I/II and other actions elsewhere was the best offensive option. Other than that remaining on the defensive and pulling off more victories like 2nd Kharkov. It would have been a decision to fight for a draw, a decision that Hitler and Halder were not willing to take

 

[AdA]

Sealion. Funny guy

Staying more on the defensive with local offensives such as Blau I/II and other actions elsewhere was the best offensive option. Other than that remaining on the defensive and pulling off more victories like 2nd Kharkov. It would have been a decision to fight for a draw, a decision that Hitler and Halder were not willing to take

They didn't do it one year later when facing a worst situation. The German General Staff had been raised in a "decisive battle" mind set and choose the option that could yield decisive results by default. They even tried it at the end of 44 in the Ardennes.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

If a decision is made mot to go for the Caucasus Blau I and II can still happen but their purpose is now very different. To destroy significant Red Army forces and make some operationally useful territorial gains while avoiding the risks of going after the Caucasus Stalingrad or, alternatively Moscow. This way the Wehrmacht is operating within its# means. Agreed taking Leningrad abd the other operations you mention are all possible options along with or instead of Blau I/II which I gave as one example of the possible options.

What is useful territorially from the Blau I-II area? It only stretches the front lines and logistics for no real gain. Plus IOTL there weren't really all that many losses to the Soviets as had been planned, since they managed to retreat out of pockets as they were being formed and didn't stay put as in 1941.

Regarding the Western Allies, in 1942 they were simply not ready for large scale operations and certainly not in Europe/ The US in particular were woefully inexperienced and it showed in Operation Torch. The Germans survived for a long tine without the Caucasus oil and can do the same in this scenario. They will also not lose 6th Army at Stalingrad and will not have to defend the huge bulge that developed by November 1942, With carefully husbanded resources and skill they can last at least as long as they did and possibly longer.

They made it until about Summer 1944 when they were bombed into submission. At that was only with enormous resource investment into the synthetic coal industry that hurt various other programs for weapons production. Certainly with hindsight it was survivable and indeed preferable not to try the full Case Blue operation, but that is only with hindsight, not what the participants knew at the time.

Not bothering with Blau at all would open plenty of other options that again with hindsight would have proved preferable, like taking out Leningrad and going after Murmansk.

Can they win the war? Probably no. Can they achieve a stalemate? Possible but unlikely. Getting the remorseless Stalin to agree to a separate peace will br an uphill struggle to say the least. IF however that happens it is doubtful that a landing in Western Europe will be feasible. With the success of the Manhatten Project as yet unknown the choice is between an endless blockade strategic bombing or cutting a deal with Hitler. Most likely however the Soviets will continue the war which now takes another year or more. Or until the Atom /Bomb is dropped - and it might well take more than two before Nazi Germany surrenders.

Stalin apparently did offer Hitler some peace deals in 1941-43, but the last was a gambit to threaten the Wallies, the 1st a desperation move as the fight developed before Moscow and the 1942 uncertain if it even happened.
Hitler is the bigger obstacle to peace in the East than Stalin.

Given the success of the Wallied bomber offensive by late 1944-early 1945 even without the landings, which honestly it would be hard to see them not being successful even if Stalin wasn't in the war somehow, the German economy would be imploded by strategic bombing, as the oil campaign was already successful before Normandy and the Transportation Plan was working well in France and would be applied to Germany eventually no matter what given that they had already bombed everything else by late 1944.

Depending on the situation in the East it is conceivable that the war would drag on for another year, but that is optimistic shall we say.

 

[Catspoke]

Looking at that map above, perhaps it might make sense to advance to Voronezh, down the Don, part way to the Chir (near the Phase 2 Phase 3 line) to the reservoir and then straight down to take the Kuban river basin, (agricultural), Maikop (oil) and Tupase (for shortening the line). (No advance into the Don bend or deep to Grozny).

Once that is complete, evacuate The Ryzev and Demaynsk salients to create some reserves.
(The Leningrad operation seems like a high casualty rate thing so I am skeptical)
Perhaps use the air force not bombing Stalingrad to go after Soviet strategic assets.

Such an advance lets you use the Sea of Azov and the Don River for supply.
Plus you have taken another agricultural region away. If this can be held through harvest 1943 perhaps Russia faces a real food shortage.
The line is long but shorter than OTL 1942, the Germans have avoided Stalingrad attrition and can supply easier what they have.

 

[pjmidd]

Sealion. Funny guy

Staying more on the defensive with local offensives such as Blau I/II and other actions elsewhere was the best offensive option. Other than that remaining on the defensive and pulling off more victories like 2nd Kharkov. It would have been a decision to fight for a draw, a decision that Hitler and Halder were not willing to take

Going defensive is not an option , it only delays the inevitable, Germany is using up more oil than it is receiving, its stocks of strategic materials are dwindling, if it cannot get new sources of oil, its lost. Manstein might claim otherwise in Lost Victory, but that's him engaging in spin and trying to boost his reputation ( somehow everything is Hitlers fault, even when he is just following the Generals advice and the attempted whitewash of the Heer for crimes in the East is sickening )

 

[Babatus]

Wouldn't the Soviet Union try to go to the offensive, with eventual catastrophic result à la 2nd battle of Kharhkov/Operation Mars ?
Going a bit into NOT-zis territory, but germany might then be in the right position to get a second Brest Litovsk...

 

[lucaswillen05]

They didn't do it one year later when facing a worst situation. The German General Staff had been raised in a "decisive battle" mind set and choose the option that could yield decisive results by default. They even tried it at the end of 44 in the Ardennes.

Agreed, It might well require a strategic rethink and a chanfe of mind set. Did the General Staff even recognise the situation they were sinking into by May 1941. A few may have done of course. The question however was even if the strategic rethink happens does it change the final outcome or does it only delay the inevitable?

Wouldn't the Soviet Union try to go to the offensive, with eventual catastrophic result à la 2nd battle of Kharhkov/Operation Mars ?
Going a bit into NOT-zis territory, but germany might then be in the right position to get a second Brest Litovsk...

Yes that is what might be being aimed at. The Wehrmact was quite capable of such defensive victories even very late in the war. By not doing Operation Blau the Wehrnact husbands mobile reserves along a line easier to defend. More limited offemsives can still be undertaken such as the options already discussed.Whether getting a second Brest Litovsk is possible is another question. Any egotiated peace that allows Nazi Germany to gold their gains would be a good result if both Hitler and Stalin will settle for that politically.

 

[lucaswillen05]

What is useful territorially from the Blau I-II area? It only stretches the front lines and logistics for no real gain. Plus IOTL there weren't really all that many losses to the Soviets as had been planned, since they managed to retreat out of pockets as they were being formed and didn't stay put as in 1941.

They made it until about Summer 1944 when they were bombed into submission. At that was only with enormous resource investment into the synthetic coal industry that hurt various other programs for weapons production. Certainly with hindsight it was survivable and indeed preferable not to try the full Case Blue operation, but that is only with hindsight, not what the participants knew at the time.

Not bothering with Blau at all would open plenty of other options that again with hindsight would have proved preferable, like taking out Leningrad and going after Murmansk.


Stalin apparently did offer Hitler some peace deals in 1941-43, but the last was a gambit to threaten the Wallies, the 1st a desperation move as the fight developed before Moscow and the 1942 uncertain if it even happened.
Hitler is the bigger obstacle to peace in the East than Stalin.

Given the success of the Wallied bomber offensive by late 1944-early 1945 even without the landings, which honestly it would be hard to see them not being successful even if Stalin wasn't in the war somehow, the German economy would be imploded by strategic bombing, as the oil campaign was already successful before Normandy and the Transportation Plan was working well in France and would be applied to Germany eventually no matter what given that they had already bombed everything else by late 1944.

Depending on the situation in the East it is conceivable that the war would drag on for another year, but that is optimistic shall we say.

 

[AdA]

Agreed, It might well require a strategic rethink and a chanfe of mind set. Did the General Staff even recognise the situation they were sinking into by May 1941. A few may have done of course. The question however was even if the strategic rethink happens does it change the final outcome or does it only delay the inevitable?



Yes that is what might be being aimed at. The Wehrmact was quite capable of such defensive victories even very late in the war. By not doing Operation Blau the Wehrnact husbands mobile reserves along a line easier to defend. More limited offemsives can still be undertaken such as the options already discussed.Whether getting a second Brest Litovsk is possible is another question. Any egotiated peace that allows Nazi Germany to gold their gains would be a good result if both Hitler and Stalin will settle for that politically.

The first B-L happened because Russia was both in a hopeless military situation (with the CP on the offensive) and in the opening stages of a civil war.
A defensive strategy against the USSR would not guarantee either, and with the USA in the war the Soviets knew time was on the allied side.

 

[lucaswillen05]

The first B-L happened because Russia was both in a hopeless military situation (with the CP on the offensive) and in the opening stages of a civil war.
A defensive strategy against the USSR would not guarantee either, and with the USA in the war the Soviets knew time was on the allied side.

The poster who suggested a B=L style peace was. I think a little too hopeful. In reality any peace deal reality would be far more of a compromise. Maybe the Germans get to keep some territory. Whether this happens depends on the situation at the end if hostilities. Have either Hitler or Stalin been "replaced by a subordinate for example. What state are the armies in at this point?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

They didn't do it one year later when facing a worst situation. The German General Staff had been raised in a "decisive battle" mind set and choose the option that could yield decisive results by default. They even tried it at the end of 44 in the Ardennes.

Just a nitpick, but by this time the General Staff was just a Staff. As I see it the last real strategic decision for operations Halder & Co made was for the form of the offensive in May 1940. After that it was pretty much genius Hitlers show. It looks like everyone was following his core decisions from 1941 on.