No Nazis: Would the 1920s (relatively) good relations between the Germans and the Soviets be maintained?

[Ambusher11]

During the 1920s, Germany and the Soviet Union, especially after the Treaty of Rapallo, had good relations (at least relatively speaking in comparison to their relations with Britain and France), particularly with the Soviet Union helping Germany bypass the military restrictions placed on it by the Treaty of Versailles. Of course, after the Nazis, which wanted to conquer the Soviet Union to gain Lebensraum, took power in 1933, relations deteriorated and the Nazis eventually launched a genocidal war of conquest against the Soviet Union in 1941.

What if the Nazis never took power in Germany in 1933? Would German-Soviet relations be maintained as they were in the 1920s, or would they still deteriorate, and if so, could it possibly still cause a war between Germany and the Soviet Union to eventually break out?

 

[West234]

I think it depends a lot on the actions of the soviets but generally, I think they would remain somewhat chilly at least in the near term. If we are going with a timeline where Germany is in a somewhat better economic state that prevents the rise of the Nazis likely you would still have a quite conservative populist German government like we had with Paul von Hindenburg. That kind of government would generally take a much more anti communist stance along the lines of other nations like American or British conservatives of the period. This along with public opposition to events like the sparticas uprising would make relations touch and go at best at worst if the Soviets try and take some kind of action against Poland or the Baltics in the late 40s or early 50s this may spur Germany to war to protect what they would see as the soviets encroaching towards their border.

 

[The Link]

I think it depends a lot on the actions of the soviets but generally, I think they would remain somewhat chilly at least in the near term. If we are going with a timeline where Germany is in a somewhat better economic state that prevents the rise of the Nazis likely you would still have a quite conservative populist German government like we had with Paul von Hindenburg. That kind of government would generally take a much more anti communist stance along the lines of other nations like American or British conservatives of the period. This along with public opposition to events like the sparticas uprising would make relations touch and go at best at worst if the Soviets try and take some kind of action against Poland or the Baltics in the late 40s or early 50s this may spur Germany to war to protect what they would see as the soviets encroaching towards their border.

When it comes to help for Poland, it depends on who's in charge of Germany. To quote Hans von Seeckt: "The existence of Poland in unacceptable and incompatible with Germany's vital interests. She must disappear and will do so - through her own inner weakness and through Russia, with our help".

 

[West234]

When it comes to help for Poland, it depends on who's in charge of Germany. To quote Hans von Seeckt: "The existence of Poland in unacceptable and incompatible with Germany's vital interests. She must disappear and will do so - through her own inner weakness and through Russia, with our help".

I agree but I wasn’t suggesting that they would be invading to help Poland out of the goodness of their hearts rather more that the Weimar government would not want the Soviets directly on their border and they would view it as an existential threat. This also comes back to what I mentioned about the government the more zealously nationalist government that is likely to take power will never be willing to cooperate with Poland while they may not be openly expansionist they act more out of pragmatism for their fears about what German interests are more then anything else.

 

[The Link]

I agree but I wasn’t suggesting that they would be invading to help Poland out of the goodness of their hearts rather more that the Weimar government would not want the Soviets directly on their border and they would view it as an existential threat. This also comes back to what I mentioned about the government the more zealously nationalist government that is likely to take power will never be willing to cooperate with Poland while they may not be openly expansionist they act more out of pragmatism for their fears about what German interests are more then anything else.

It really just goes down to whether Germany finally gets over the fact that Poland reappeared. During the polish-soviet war the Weimar Republic did everything in its might to sabotage Poland, whether by blocking the transports of western weapons through german territory or by training for the Soviets the reinforecements from the tsarist POWs.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Stalin was paranoid about capitalist countries ganging up on USSR, and keen on maintaining them divided. So he would want to maintain the convenience friendship with Berlin.

Plus, Stalin was quite reluctant to provoke a major crisis or war that might bring Great Powers in. He only pushed around Poland, Finland, Baltic countries and Romania when he had German blessing and knew the Anglo-French were busy.

And even those moves were partly a reaction to Hitler's expansionism (wanting to push the border westwards so that a German invasion would start farther from Moscow and Leningrad).

With a non-aggressive, non-expansonist Germany, Stalin will likely quietly sit in the Kremlin and not rock the boat.

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

One of the things that brought the two together was that both states were Pariah states in the early 20's. But that started to change, if that process would continue, the need to proceed would disappear.

 

[thaddeus]

What if the Nazis never took power in Germany in 1933? Would German-Soviet relations be maintained as they were in the 1920s, or would they still deteriorate, and if so, could it possibly still cause a war between Germany and the Soviet Union to eventually break out?

FWIW I think their trade relations (at least) would continue, even under the Nazis they were only reduced, not eliminated. the von Seeckt plan was for trade with both the USSR and China, albeit no alliance in the sense of the Entente or WWII Allies.

IDK what would disrupt or provide an alternative to German-Soviet trade? as already mentioned some out of character Soviet actions?

 

[CHKeeley]

The nadir of German-Soviet relations was in the initial period after the NSDAP took power in Germany. Before that, the relationship was relatively warm and much of the 1920s saw serious cooperation between the USSR and the Reich. Without the further broad timeline changes and political realignments, I see no reason for rupture between them. The anti-Versailles mentality and sense of underdog status as well as overlapping territorial claims on neighbors like Poland were strong motivators, and the pro-Russian orientation was strong in the Reich’s military. It would likely continue to be the case without an NSDAP victory. With that said, if the KPD manages to harness enough votes in the absence of Nazism to effectively destabilize the republic and lay the groundwork for the seizure of power in the 1930s, it’s not hard to imagine that the German government breaks off ties with the USSR.