No Mongol invasion of Khwarazmia

[tonsofun]

So I was reading another thread about the Mongols here and it got me thinking about how they got started on their central Asia adventures.
It started when the Mongols sent a large caravan to Khwarazmia and a local Khwarazmian governor confiscated all the goods and killed everyone on board believing them to be spies. The Shah of Khwarazmi then refused to punish said governor and even killed Mongol envoys who were seeking a peaceful resolution.
Now apparently, this happened because the Shah (Muhammad II) feared the Mongols after seeing them in action during a brief skirmish and also pride as he had become involved in another war in the middle east.
But what if, there was no pride and Muhammad II gave into Mongol demands without hesitation?
Or what if the governor of Otrar didn't kill the members of the caravan, letting them through?
Is this likely to stop the Mongol invasion of Khwarazmia as apparantly, Genghis Khan had high hopes for the caravan and both sides prosper through trade and concentrate on their enemies closer to home?
Personally, I love the idea of the Mongols not doing their thing, but I can't help but feel that war between the two is more a matter of "when" and not "if"

 

[DocJamore]

Personally, I love the idea of the Mongols not doing their thing, but I can't help but feel that war between the two is more a matter of "when" and not "if"

I think otherwise. I think TTL Mongol invasions of the Middle East would not happen at all or either be much more disorganized and/or reduced. This isn’t due to goodwill or solidarity, but if Genghis Khan had devoted all his attention on the conquest and administration of China (his closest target) he would be much too busy to be able to spare his forces on risks like crossing the steppe in his lifetime. Executing envoys wasn’t unheard of in China either.

 

[MegaByyte]

Khwarezm probably survives for another few decades until the Mongols are done conquering China and turn their attention westward. Mongols were very expansionist so they will eventually conquer middle east but it might be less bloody this time.

 

[tonsofun]

I think otherwise. I think TTL Mongol invasions of the Middle East would not happen at all or either be much more disorganized and/or reduced. This isn’t due to goodwill or solidarity, but if Genghis Khan had devoted all his attention on the conquest and administration of China (his closest target) he would be much too busy to be able to spare his forces on risks like crossing the steppe in his lifetime. Executing envoys wasn’t unheard of in China either.

So essentially, we get an earlier Yuan Dynasty actually founded by Genghis Khan and not just credited this time.

Khwarezm probably survives for another few decades until the Mongols are done conquering China and turn their attention westward. Mongols were very expansionist so they will eventually conquer middle east but it might be less bloody this time.

It took the Mongols about 70 years to conquer in OTL, you think they can do it quicker if they aren't distracted elsewhere?

 

[DocJamore]

So essentially, we get an earlier Yuan Dynasty actually founded by Genghis Khan and not just credited this time.

Pretty much. The Mongols may not conquer the Song in Genghis Khan's lifetime, but the Jin could have probably been conquered sooner than OTL and that would put the Mongols on a collision course with the Song. I imagine Genghis getting sucked into Chinese politics would keep him very busy. He would be deciding how should the conquered land be distributed among his family and generals. Genghis and his old guard might not change much, but his children and grandchildren would live very different lives. They would probably be more spoiled (Sinicized) by civilized life, from the Mongol perspective. There may be some Mongols running around the Middle East eventually, but those would be the disinherited or less fortunate.

Still, I don't think we can fault the Khwarazmian Shah even with hindsight. He had no way of knowing that Genghis had the luxury of disengaging himself from Chinese politics and could/would march his armies across the whole steppe on a mission to destroy his country over a diplomatic insult that wasn't uncommon for the time period.

 

[MegaByyte]

It took the Mongols about 70 years to conquer in OTL, you think they can do it quicker if they aren't distracted elsewhere?

The Mongols attacked Khwarezm with around 100-200k men. Many of those men stayed in the middle east to properly subjugate it and attack new places. Without these distraction the Mongols would definitely conquer China a lot quicker.
Conquest of Song would take some time but the Jin would be run over very quickly with Genghis being able to give it his full attention. Song dynasty would probably last longer being able to hide behind fortress, subtropical climate and difficult terrain.
Maybe the Mongols that finally turn towards the middle east would be divided and weaker without a strong leader like Genghis Khan to unite them?

 

[Lothal]

Something interesting to consider is that after the Mongol invasion, the remaining Khwarezmian army fled westward and became a pseudo-state entitiy, holding pretty much all elements of an independent state while holding zero sovereign territory, usually vassaling themselves to various dynasties in the Near East or just roaming around and surviving off raids. No mongol invasion means this force doesnt go west, possibly preventing the second Ayyubid conquest of Jerusalem

 

[Thomas Lloyd]

Broad parts of Central Asia would be seen today as a part of Iran, or at least culturally Persian, rather than primarily Turkic. Genghis wiped out a lot of settled Persian culture in Turkestan which would come to be dominated more and more by Turkic nomads.

 

[piratedude]

Well, if the kwarizmids don't offend them wouldn't the lands of the Rus' seem an easier target?

 

[tonsofun]

Pretty much. The Mongols may not conquer the Song in Genghis Khan's lifetime, but the Jin could have probably been conquered sooner than OTL and that would put the Mongols on a collision course with the Song. I imagine Genghis getting sucked into Chinese politics would keep him very busy. He would be deciding how should the conquered land be distributed among his family and generals. Genghis and his old guard might not change much, but his children and grandchildren would live very different lives. They would probably be more spoiled (Sinicized) by civilized life, from the Mongol perspective. There may be some Mongols running around the Middle East eventually, but those would be the disinherited or less fortunate.

I must admit that I can't see them stopping with just the Jin. Especially considering in OTL they didn't stop with central Asia and just carried on and on.

Still, I don't think we can fault the Khwarazmian Shah even with hindsight. He had no way of knowing that Genghis had the luxury of disengaging himself from Chinese politics and could/would march his armies across the whole steppe on a mission to destroy his country over a diplomatic insult that wasn't uncommon for the time period.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing indeed. Unfortunately though, in politics, one bad decision can really f*** you and your country over.

The Mongols attacked Khwarezm with around 100-200k men. Many of those men stayed in the middle east to properly subjugate it and attack new places. Without these distraction the Mongols would definitely conquer China a lot quicker.
Conquest of Song would take some time but the Jin would be run over very quickly with Genghis being able to give it his full attention. Song dynasty would probably last longer being able to hide behind fortress, subtropical climate and difficult terrain.
Maybe the Mongols that finally turn towards the middle east would be divided and weaker without a strong leader like Genghis Khan to unite them?

It is definitely an interesting thought. I can't see Genghis being happy with just China if he lives to see the Southern Song finished. The question though is where does he turn his attention to. Does he go West or maybe South. As Emperor of China I think he would be presented with a different outlook on the world. Being emperor also affects his kids ofcourse. A different upbringing could change their opinion on many things. Especially if relations with Khwarazmia are still good.

Something interesting to consider is that after the Mongol invasion, the remaining Khwarezmian army fled westward and became a pseudo-state entitiy, holding pretty much all elements of an independent state while holding zero sovereign territory, usually vassaling themselves to various dynasties in the Near East or just roaming around and surviving off raids. No mongol invasion means this force doesnt go west, possibly preventing the second Ayyubid conquest of Jerusalem

Khwarazmia surviving creates a ton of butterflies for Central Asia. Wikipedia estimates the Mongols killed 10-15 million people. Even if you half it, that is still a ton of people. Outside of that, it could drastically change the middle east too.

Broad parts of Central Asia would be seen today as a part of Iran, or at least culturally Persian, rather than primarily Turkic. Genghis wiped out a lot of settled Persian culture in Turkestan which would come to be dominated more and more by Turkic nomads.

Do you think this could make Iran a lot more powerful in the future? Or just more culturally powerful? I know the Mongols really did hit them hard in OTL.

Well, if the kwarizmids don't offend them wouldn't the lands of the Rus' seem an easier target?

This one I'm afraid is wayyy outside of my knowledge.
Did they know about the Rus at this time? Was their land worth taking if they don't go after Khwarazmia?

 

[piratedude]

Did they know about the Rus at this time?

Afaik yes, one of the overland trade routes did go through there to ports on the black sea (from whence trade with the rest of the Mediterranean was conducted)

 

[Silver01]

I see conflict occuring as the mongols just destroyed the western Liao but for now they concentrate on China jin falls way earlier the forces left did a number of the jin before the offensive was halted with the main mongol army i think its enough to conquer more of it or have the jin fall in 1220s

 

[Silver01]

Did they know about the Rus at this time? Was their land worth taking if they don't go after Khwarazmia?

The Mongols wanted to conquer the steppe, Jochi chased one prince to chem river in 1218 defeated the merkits who had fled to the Kipchaks causing their first conflict so yes the Mongols would go west to deal with cumans and they would likely call the rus to aid them

 

[tonsofun]

Afaik yes, one of the overland trade routes did go through there to ports on the black sea (from whence trade with the rest of the Mediterranean was conducted)

Normally, I'd be sceptical of them doing it. But this is the Mongols we're talking about here. If they just go for the Rus, then they'd have more control there. But I can't imagine them stopping there though, so it could lead to an earlier Mongol incursion into Europe.

I see conflict occuring as the mongols just destroyed the western Liao but for now they concentrate on China jin falls way earlier the forces left did a number of the jin before the offensive was halted with the main mongol army i think its enough to conquer more of it or have the jin fall in 1220s

I'm certain that the Jin falls much earlier in this tl and they'll most likely just go straight for the Song afterwards. A conquest of China is definitely happening much earlier.

The Mongols wanted to conquer the steppe, Jochi chased one prince to chem river in 1218 defeated the merkits who had fled to the Kipchaks causing their first conflict so yes the Mongols would go west to deal with cumans and they would likely call the rus to aid them

Seems it is inevitable that the Mongols conquer the Steppe. Perhaps it is their true destiny. (if such a thing really exists ofcourse)

 

[MegaByyte]

I imagine Khwarezm would go through a minor golden age in this TL. Not only are they spared from the Mongols they have a good trade link with China with the Mongols making the silk road safer. The Mongols improved trade in OTL and something like that still happens in this TL( atleast until the Mongols are done conquering China and turn their focous westward).