No Lend Lease to the Reds

[Amateur]

During WWII the US provided tremendous support to both the UK and USSR. This support included military items, such as planes and tanks; mixed use items such as trucks and train locomotives; economic support such as cash, coal, and other resources, and even finished goods such as clothing and children's toys.

The level of aid was such that as much as 10% of the UK food supply came from Lend Lease and all Soviet losses of military vehicles and tanks in 1941 were replaced by Lend Lease. Roughly half the tonnage of US material overseas went to Lend Lease (the other half supported the US military in Europe and the Pacific).

What would have happened if the US had supplied the same level of material support, but sent all of it to the UK and none to the USSR?

 

[Amateur]

The aid surplus doesn't have to just be sent to Great Britain.

Yes, but the bulk of the aid was actually sent to the UK and USSR. I think even much of the aid to Nationalist China was technically sent to UK administered India for the Burma Road and later support of China.

The tonnage involved was huge, and getting it to an allies required sea ports with reliable connections to the interior. China lacked such ports in 1941-45, and everyone else outside the USSR would be functionally under the UK umbrella.

 

[History Learner]

The USSR collapses in 1942 or 1943.

 

[Relekka]

What would have happened if the US had supplied the same level of material support, but sent all of it to the UK and none to the USSR?

USSR gets by with what it has, prolonging WWII by maybe another few months and extending the Holocaust by that much. The USSR was self-sufficient enough to get its resources out there, just it'll take a harder demographic crisis later on and most likely come out slightly weaker compared to OTL. Lend-lease wasn't much, but it provided a decent buffer for the Soviets and allowed them to fight harder and better. It'll also have the knock on effect of delaying jet development in the USSR without lend-lease providing jet engines to the USSR.

The USSR collapses in 1942 or 1943.

Extremely doubtful.

 

[History Learner]

USSR gets by with what it has, prolonging WWII by maybe another few months and extending the Holocaust by that much. The USSR was self-sufficient enough to get its resources out there, just it'll take a harder demographic crisis later on and most likely come out slightly weaker compared to OTL. Lend-lease wasn't much, but it provided a decent buffer for the Soviets and allowed them to fight harder and better. It'll also have the knock on effect of delaying jet development in the USSR without lend-lease providing jet engines to the USSR.

The USSR, Post-Barbarossa, was not self sufficient at all or even close.

The loss of the Ukraine and other occupied areas had engendered shortages of coal (The Donbass was home to roughly 60% of Soviet output by itself), aluminum (Main Soviet facility was along the Dnieper, about 60-80% of production), iron ore (60% of production), steel (50% of production), electric power (30% of output), manganese ore (30% of production), and nickel (30% of production). Overall output of the machinery and metal goods sector had fallen by 40%. In addition, the USSR was also unable to meet the demand for copper, tin, zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel with remaining sources; Lend Lease was sufficient to meet all of these demands except for aluminum and nickel. Antimony, tungsten, cobalt, vanadium, molybdenum, tin, and magnesium were also almost entirely lacking.

Extremely doubtful.

Not at all. If the material situation in of itself wasn't damning enough, the food situation is. From Hunger and War: Food Provisioning in the Soviet Union During World War II -

 

[Relekka]

The loss of the Ukraine and other occupied areas had engendered shortages of coal (The Donbass was home to roughly 60% of Soviet output by itself), aluminum (Main Soviet facility was along the Dnieper, about 60-80% of production), iron ore (60% of production), steel (50% of production), electric power (30% of output), manganese ore (30% of production), and nickel (30% of production). Overall output of the machinery and metal goods sector had fallen by 40%. In addition, the USSR was also unable to meet the demand for copper, tin, zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel with remaining sources; Lend Lease was sufficient to meet all of these demands except for aluminum and nickel. Antimony, tungsten, cobalt, vanadium, molybdenum, tin, and magnesium were also almost entirely lacking.

Which ultimately meant nothing considering how rapidly the Soviets regained said territory following Op. Citadel and Kursk within a year and a half. And your link doesn't exactly lead to anything relevant AFAIK? And as for your rest; proof?

Not at all. If the material situation in of itself wasn't damning enough, the food situation is. From Hunger and War: Food Provisioning in the Soviet Union During World War II -

Again, this doesn't mean a sudden and utter collapse of the Soviet Union when the Germans were both: A) On the defensive already, and B) Overstretched and undermanned. At that point the Soviet Union would've maybe lost another few dozen or hundred of kilometers of land, but ultimately means nothing when the Soviet Union counters the Germans. In the end, inevitably, the Germans cannot conquer the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union won't magically collapse when it still has a fighting chance against the Germans.

 

[Sam R.]

Iirc academic consensus was that LL wasn’t essential to halting German strategic advance, but was essential to the rate of soviet advance, the quality of soviet advance, and limiting the losses during the soviet advance.

I’m thinking vicious paranoid hermit state cannibalising the economies of its limited periphery to ensure no western invasion of a depleted motherland.

OTOH feminism is advanced.

 

[Scott Washburn]

The Soviets would have been crippled. Perhaps not fatally, but without all the food, weapons, and then 600,000 trucks sent to them, would not have been able to launch the massive offensives they did in 1943-45. The western Allies would have met up with the Red Army on the Vistula rather than the Elbe.

 

[Kalga]

Stalin might just cut a deal (read: ceasefire) with Hitler, especially if the western powers still took a long time to launch a "real " second front (otl stalin didn't exactly consider the Italian campaign to be a second front).

Might be even a small chance that nazi germany survives in a fashion... or at least a right wing Germany of sorts.

 

[The Ranger]

Poland and the other eastern European countries are liberated by the West except the Baltic States, but at a cost-either half a million more killed in the Holocaust or a nuked Germany, and a Russia who hates the West even more then in OTL, with some justification.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Which ultimately meant nothing considering how rapidly the Soviets regained said territory following Op. Citadel and Kursk within a year and a half. And your link doesn't exactly lead to anything relevant AFAIK? And as for your rest; proof?

They didn't recover those territories intact. It took years of recovery to get them back to pre-war output as well as help via LL and looting conquered Europe to achieve that. Not only had the Soviets scorched earth-ed it, the Germans did too again in 1943. Certainly it helped to get the territory back, especially by having more workers, but the economic output was severely damaged for quite a while.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-Nazi-occupation-of-Soviet-Ukraine

Ukraine’s human and material losses during World War II were enormous. Some 5 to 7 million people perished. Even with the return of evacuees from the east and the repatriation of forced labourers from Germany, Ukraine’s estimated population of 36 million in 1947 was almost 5 million less than before the war. Because more than 700 cities and towns and 28,000 villages had been destroyed, 10 million people were left homeless. Only 20 percent of the industrial enterprises and 15 percent of agricultural equipment and machinery remained intact, and the transportation network was severely damaged. The material losses constituted an estimated 40 percent of Ukraine’s national wealth.

Postwar reconstruction, the reimposition of totalitarian controls and terror, and the Sovietization of western Ukraine were the hallmarks of the last years of Stalin’s rule. Economic reconstruction was undertaken immediately as Soviet authorities reestablished control over the recovered territories. The fourth five-year plan, as in the prewar years, stressed heavy industry to the detriment of consumer needs. By 1950, Ukraine’s industrial output exceeded the prewar level. In agriculture, recovery proceeded much more slowly, and prewar levels of production were not reached until the 1960s. A famine in 1946–47 resulting from postwar dislocations and drought claimed nearly one million casualties.

 

[sendô]

Iirc academic consensus was that LL wasn’t essential to halting German strategic advance, but was essential to the rate of soviet advance, the quality of soviet advance, and limiting the losses during the soviet advance.

Exactly this.

The key thing that the Americans sent the Soviets were Jeeps, which allowed the Red Army the mobility to do to the Germans what they'd been consistently doing to them during 1941.

No lend lease might have meant no Operation Uranus, and Stalingrad continuing as a slow, slow war of attrition - and a later slow slog west for the Russians.

In the long run the Soviets dwarfed Germany in men and materials, and by Stalingrad the Germans had reached the limit of what they could manage offensively.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

While others have touched on the topic of the impact the lack of these materials will have on the Soviets, I think the other part of the question deserved attention: namely, the fact this flood of material is flowing into the UK (presumably in slightly different forms). What is London going to do with this jackpot? For one thing, rationing can easily be lightened up, but militarily there's a question of what they can do. The UK dosen't have the number of warm bodies to build a massive invading legion themselves, assuming the logistics could even be handled, with Soviet counterattack abilities slowed the Germans can (to a limited extent) afford to shuffle troops in to counter any rushed amphibious attack. Would there be a doubling down on the air campaign? Efforts to try to ply Ankara into being a springboard by channeling the spare military equipment to modernize the Turkish armed forces to hit at the "soft underbelly" of the Balkans? Just a bigger Sledgehammer/Roundup push?

 

[Kalga]

Again, I think there's a high chance of a ceasefire of sorts on the eastern front as it becomes all to clear to Stalin that the western imperialist want him and the Nazis to bleed each other out, of course that ceasefire will happen more on the Soviet's terms as they at least give the impression that they will be going on the counteroffensive (which means at least doing a few of those). Borders will be between those of 1941 and of brest-litovsk, specifics depends on a lot of things.

With the Soviets deciding to sit out again and waiting to let the fascists and the imperialists to bleed each other I think fortress Europe is much more of a thing. The Italian soft underbelly is not gonna happen, although the axis will still get kicked out of north africa. This will free up quite of bit of germany's resources (but not really manpower, the eastern frontier still needs watching). However, Germany's resource crunch is still very real, especially now that they don't have that sweet deal with the USSR like in 1939-41

If the US wants to completely crush germany then it'll need to fork over a lot of bodies (like, millions more, which will translate to hundreds of thousands of casualities) into the meatgrinder if and when they decide to pull a much larger version of operation overlord.

 

[Scott Washburn]

The effects of the lack of Lend lease to the Soviets has three aspects.
1. What does it do to the Soviets? (discussed above)
2. What does it allow the Germans to do? Hold longer in the east? Divert more resources to the west?
3. What does the increase in resources do for the Western Allies? This is not just the actual materiel, but the ships used to carry it. An awful lot of ships were lost on the Arctic convoys. Of course the Germans don't have to spend any resources trying to stop them, either.

 

[marathag]

Roughly 11 Billion USD to USSR, near 17.5 million tons shipped.
In 1944 and 1945, 22M tons were delivered to Europe, for a sence of scale.

13,000 Tanks,halftracks and armored cars, 11,400 aircraft. Near half million trucks. Near 4.5 M tons of food. Hundreds of freighters freed up for shorter deliveries.

Sounds like enough for a well supplied second front, sooner.

Yes, Stalin won't be happy. But not like he can really deal with the Mustache after Barbarossa, cutting a deal makes him lool weak, and then he's a target for a purge.

Some say then Stalin would hate the West.

Newsflash: he didn't love the West OTL

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Roughly 11 Billion USD to USSR, near 17.5 million tons shipped.
In 1944 and 1945, 22M tons were delivered to Europe, for a sence of scale.

13,000 Tanks,halftracks and armored cars, 11,400 aircraft. Near half million trucks. Near 4.5 M tons of food. Hundreds of freighters freed up for shorter deliveries.

Sounds like enough for a well supplied second front, sooner.

Yes, Stalin won't be happy. But not like he can really deal with the Mustache after Barbarossa, cutting a deal makes him lool weak, and then he's a target for a purge.

Some say then Stalin would hate the West.

Newsflash: he didn't love the West OTL

The issue is where the manpower is going to come to use all that extra stuff. The US certainly has untapped manpower, but that will likely mean cutting into the workforce or forgoing the large air force. Given the scale of shipments to the USSR in 1942 I'm not sure it would necessarily allow for a sooner 2nd Front, especially given the trained manpower issue. They could certainly rush things, but the results are likely to be bloody. Of course though with the USSR in a much worse situation in 1942 without LL it would likely mean the Wallies have to use their late 1942 invasion plans before the USSR implodes.

Also for OP are we talking about no US LL or also no UK aid, which was separate from LL (though still essentially LL to the UK converted into British help for the USSR)?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Also for OP are we talking about no US LL or also no UK aid, which was separate from LL (though still essentially LL to the UK converted into British help for the USSR)?

^

What would have happened if the US had supplied the same level of material support, but sent all of it to the UK and none to the USSR?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

^

Thanks.

I'm assuming that means the UK then is still sending it's stuff to the USSR, but the US is retaining more stuff for itself. I guess this either helps them to conscript more men for combat and remove them from the workforce, as US army demands aren't going to be as high as what was giving to the USSR.

UK aid to the USSR:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease#British_deliveries_to_the_Soviet_Union

In June 1941, within weeks of the German invasion of the USSR, the first British aid convoy set off along the dangerous Arctic sea route to Murmansk, arriving in September. It carried 40 Hawker Hurricanes along with 550 mechanics and pilots of No. 151 Wing to provide immediate air defence of the port and to train Soviet pilots. The convoy was the first of many convoys to Murmansk and Archangelsk in what became known as the Arctic convoys, the returning ships carried the gold that the USSR was using to pay the US.

By the end of 1941, early shipments of Matilda, Valentine and Tetrarch tanks represented only 6.5% of total Soviet tank production but over 25% of medium and heavy tanks produced for the Red Army.[51][52] The British tanks first saw action with the 138 Independent Tank Battalion in the Volga Reservoir on November 20, 1941.[53] Lend-Lease tanks constituted 30 to 40 percent of heavy and medium tank strength before Moscow at the beginning of December 1941.[54][55]

Between June 1941 and May 1945, Britain delivered to the USSR:

• 3,000+ Hurricanes aircraft
• 4,000+ other aircraft
• 27 naval vessels
• 5,218 tanks (including 1,380 Valentines from Canada)
• 5,000+ anti-tank guns
• 4,020 ambulances and trucks
• 323 machinery trucks (mobile vehicle workshops equipped with generators and all the welding and power tools required to perform heavy servicing)
• 1,212 Universal Carriers and Loyd Carriers (with another 1,348 from Canada)
• 1,721 motorcycles
• £1.15bn worth of aircraft engines
• 1,474 radar sets
• 4,338 radio sets
• 600 naval radar and sonar sets
• Hundreds of naval guns
• 15 million pairs of boots

In total 4 million tonnes of war material including food and medical supplies were delivered. The munitions totaled £308m (not including naval munitions supplied), the food and raw materials totaled £120m in 1946 index. In accordance with the Anglo-Soviet Military Supplies Agreement of June 27, 1942, military aid sent from Britain to the Soviet Union during the war was entirely free of charge.[57][58]

Breakdown by year:
https://www.o5m6.de/redarmy/ll_routes.php
Interestingly the UK sent nearly 3x as much in Oct. 1941-June 1942 as in July 1942-June 1943, but then the majority came from July 1943 on.

 

[lionhead]

Exactly this.

The key thing that the Americans sent the Soviets were Jeeps, which allowed the Red Army the mobility to do to the Germans what they'd been consistently doing to them during 1941.

No lend lease might have meant no Operation Uranus, and Stalingrad continuing as a slow, slow war of attrition - and a later slow slog west for the Russians.

In the long run the Soviets dwarfed Germany in men and materials, and by Stalingrad the Germans had reached the limit of what they could manage offensively.

... they attacked and encircled the Germans in Jeeps?

I'm sorry, a picture of that just forms in my mind.

Anyway people always talk about the material they send helping the Russians, always forgetting the massive amount of resources(and even an entire factory) that helped boost the Soviet industry along to produce the aircraft and tanks they needed.