No Korean War, but Stalin invades Yugoslavia and China Taiwan.

[purple_princess]

A lot of historical reading over years has given me this idea, but the two articles I'm linking summarize my line of thinking fairly comprehensively.

Taiwan: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/question-why-didnt-mao-invade-taiwan-60837
Yugoslavia: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/yugoslavia-1951.htm

While I don't agree at all with many of the conclusions in those articles, the premises provide material for a fascinating scenario. The Korean War is somehow avoided. I feel like this would be fairly easy to do. Perhaps during the negotiations of the Big Three, Stalin agrees to give up some Japanese islands or something for a claim to the Korean Peninsula. Or, the US simply doesn't issue its fait accompli to the Soviets through the unilateral occupation of half of Korea. Regardless, Korean War doesn't happen. Perhaps the People's Republic of Korea gov't survives. Division of Korea is avoided. It may eventually align with the Soviet Union regardless. Not important. (Any other butterflies from this? Does a peaceful, independent Korea, regardless of ideology, develop quicker than IOTL?)

Then, let us say that, because there is no Korean War to distract them, Russia invades Yugoslavia and China attacks Taiwan, in the same timeline. First, how do you think this would actually play out? Second, in a situation assuming an Eastern Bloc triumph in both these conflicts, how does the rest of the Cold War look? Would the world's most important adventurous pan-Slavic experiment come to an early end, with Tito's deposition and a partition of Yugoslavia by the Warsaw Pact? Impacts on Vietnam? Refugees to Italy?

 

[authenticity]

There is a very good reason why a full invasion of Yugoslavia or Taiwan was never attempted: Because they would have failed.

The former would quickly develop into something similar to a very expensive Afghanistan '79 in the Balkans, and before Soviets & the Red Army had fully recovered from WWII. The US would quickly arm Tito and drain Russia of the very little resources it had, leaving Stalin vulnerable to be ousted.

China did in fact try to recover Kinmen and Matsu (and failed) in 1958. No Korean war would not have changed that outcome. We are debating in 2022 whether PLA-N/A would have the air and naval superiority to pull off an invasion. If the odds are fifty-fifty at best today (odds that a much more confident CPC is unwilling to play), Taiwan wins ten scenarios out of ten in the 1950s/60s.

There is a even better reason why they were never attempted: Neither endeavour bring any benefits for the invader.

 

[Vabasion]

There is a very good reason why a full invasion of Yugoslavia or Taiwan was never attempted: Because they would have failed.

The former would quickly develop into something similar to a very expensive Afghanistan '79 in the Balkans, and before Soviets & the Red Army had fully recovered from WWII. The US would quickly arm Tito and drain Russia of the very little resources it had, leaving Stalin vulnerable to be ousted.

China did in fact try to recover Kinmen and Matsu (and failed) in 1958. No Korean war would not have changed that outcome. We are debating in 2022 whether PLA-N/A would have the air and naval superiority to pull off an invasion. If the odds are fifty-fifty at best today (odds that a much more confident CPC is unwilling to play), Taiwan wins ten scenarios out of ten in the 1950s/60s.

There is an even better reason why they were never attempted: Neither endeavour bring any benefits for the invader.

State engaged in half a decade long repression campaigns to suppress Stalinism among the population and general sympathies towards him. Which then continued on even after he died. Even in the 70s you had people keeping Stalin portraits in basements and attics. Large part of the country weren’t even communist yet nor did they grow up in a communist state loyal to it. Yugoslavia would collapse if invaded both to sheer military power and then to internal divisions. Large segments of ruling communist party would easily switch over. Ustashe and Royalists would probably make a play of their own with western backing or at least not aid the ruling communists. Yugoslavia would fall and Tito’s guerilla gambit would fail.

Taiwan on the other hand would go terribly for China. They don’t have a navy nor transport capacity to support such an invasion. Their troops would be dying from bullets and starvation in equal measure.