No Japanese Invasions of China and Korea

[Montgomerie Ward]

Historians argue that Hideyoshi's invasions of Míng China and Joseon Korea, though a failure, left China and Korea weak enough for Manchu conquest. What if Hideyoshi decided not to invade?

 

[KittyKat]

I would imagine Toyotomi control over Japan would be stronger, the clans most loyal to the Toyotomi were the ones severely weekend by the invasions.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

Historians argue that Hideyoshi's invasions of Míng China and Joseon Korea, though a failure, left China and Korea weak enough for Manchu conquest. What if Hideyoshi decided not to invade?

Hideyoshi never invaded China. His invasions of Korea were one of many factors responsible for the fall of the Ming Dynasty and were far from sufficient, by themselves, to cause the Ming's fall. If Hideyoshi doesn't invade Korea, the Ming might partially or completely collapse by the mid-17th century anyways. But even if he does invade China, the Ming might still survive. I would argue that a point of divergence in early 1644 might even allow the Ming to survive in southern China.

Therefore, I think the bigger issue is whether an intact Korea might be able to resist the Manchus better.

 

[Montgomerie Ward]

Hideyoshi never invaded China. His invasions of Korea were one of many factors responsible for the fall of the Ming Dynasty and were far from sufficient, by themselves, to cause the Ming's fall. If Hideyoshi doesn't invade Korea, the Ming might partially or completely collapse by the mid-17th century anyways. But even if he does invade China, the Ming might still survive. I would argue that a point of divergence in early 1644 might even allow the Ming to survive in southern China.

Therefore, I think the bigger issue is whether an intact Korea might be able to resist the Manchus better.

How about Shùn taking Míng's place once it collapses? In one of my previous threads, "Manchu Invasion of China Repelled" (https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=335139), user Seleucus believed that a Shùn conquest of Manchuria was reasonable. Plausible result: Korea, having also resisted the Manchu Invasions, establishes a close trade and diplomatic relationship with Shùn China.

But, if Míng survives in Southern China, is it possible we could see another divided China? Míng in Southern China and Táiwān Vs. Qīng in Northern China and Manchuria; that would make an interesting timeline. Korea would be allied to the Míng because they share a long history together and the Qīng as their common enemy.

 

[BBadolato]

I would imagine Toyotomi control over Japan would be stronger, the clans most loyal to the Toyotomi were the ones severely weekend by the invasions.

He wouldn't be in a stronger position Hideyoshi was still a peasant who could never be Shogun at the end of the day. If there is still the fiasco of killing his nephew and heir at the time, Hidetsugu and his entirely, the Toyotomi are still going to be in rough straits. As for Korea didn't the invasions make the more militarily prepared, instead of just having a significant military force up north?