No Japanese invasion of China + no Pacific War - long-term fate of the colonies?

[varyar]

Let's say that, somehow, Japan avoids being taken over by militarists and invades neither China nor the Western colonies.

What happens in Korea and Taiwan and the South Seas? I can't see the Japanese holding onto Korea in the long term, not unless they actually let all Koreans have full equality with ethnic Japanese, but what about the smaller colonies? Could Taiwan be fully integrated by 2019 TTL?

IIRC, the South Seas mandate was on track to becoming majority Japanese by the turn of the century before the war interrupted things.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

Let's say that, somehow, Japan avoids being taken over by militarists and invades neither China nor the Western colonies.

What happens in Korea and Taiwan and the South Seas? I can't see the Japanese holding onto Korea in the long term, not unless they actually let all Koreans have full equality with ethnic Japanese, but what about the smaller colonies? Could Taiwan be fully integrated by 2019 TTL?

IIRC, the South Seas mandate was on track to becoming majority Japanese by the turn of the century before the war interrupted things.

My predictions:

1. The South Seas mandate and Karafuto remain Japanese - they probably also nab Northern Sakhalin if the USSR still collapses.
2. Taiwan I think would remain Japanese - it'd be a point of massive arguments with whoever runs China but they'd keep it.

Now, as to Korea... It ties into if the non-militarist government are sensible.

If they are, they'll be reinventing Japan as a big brother to recently-freed Asian colonies, propping up independence groups...I can see a Japan-led Asian alliance system coming into existence by the 70s. If smart...they may fight to hold Korea for a while, but eventually let it go.

 

[varyar]

My predictions:

1. The South Seas mandate and Karafuto remain Japanese - they probably also nab Northern Sakhalin if the USSR still collapses.
2. Taiwan I think would remain Japanese - it'd be a point of massive arguments with whoever runs China but they'd keep it.

Now, as to Korea... It ties into if the non-militarist government are sensible.

If they are, they'll be reinventing Japan as a big brother to recently-freed Asian colonies, propping up independence groups...I can see a Japan-led Asian alliance system coming into existence by the 70s. If smart...they may fight to hold Korea for a while, but eventually let it go.

Seems reasonable to me. North Sakhalin under Japanese control would provoke some interesting and 1000% chill reactions as Russia recovered from the post-USSR collapse.

(I did a bit of digging and realized I mis-remembered the demographics of the South Seas mandate - it was already majority Japanese by the war. The speculation in the book in question (Nan'yo by Mark Peattie) was that the Pacific Islanders would have been completely assimilated by the turn of the century.)

 

[schai]

Korean would be fully assimilated like Okinawan. After 100 years of colonial rule, only few elders are able to speak Korean. For the average Korean descendant, there is no incentive to learn Korean. Most of people would consider themselves as Japanese and Japan would allow these Korean to be full citizen.

Chinese in Taiwan would have a similar fate. Except, some Chinese would have the economic incentive to keep their Chinese language. They want to maintain their language so they can work and conduct business in China.

 

[Karelian]

Korean would be fully assimilated like Okinawan. After 100 years of colonial rule, only few elders are able to speak Korean. For the average Korean descendant, there is no incentive to learn Korean. Most of people would consider themselves as Japanese and Japan would allow these Korean to be full citizen.

Korea has way too distinct culture and history to be fully assimilated like that, even if Japanese language becomes more prominent.

Case in point: Irish nationalism vs. the actual linguistical situation in Ireland.