No Iberian Union; Effects on Spanish and Portuguese Empires?

[GameBawesome]

The Iberian Union was a dynastic personal union between Spain and Portugal. It started because King Sebastian I died in a war with Morocco without producing an heir. Then his uncle, Henry, became king but was old and a cardinal, which meant he couldn't get married. So, once he died, this led to a succession crisis, which ended with Philip II of Spain (Who's claim came from his mother, and also being descended from Manuel I by a female line). There was also for António, Prior of Cato who tried to claim the Portuguese throne, as he was Manuel I's grandson in the male line though illegitimate, he didn't win enough support. This led to the creation of the Iberian Union, which made Spain's enemies, also Portugal's enemies, including the Dutch and English, who began chipping away at the Portuguese Empire, especially the former's case. Eventually, after 60 years, the Iberian Union came to an end after the Portuguese revolted and made John VI of the House of Braganza the new king.

What if the Iberian Union never happened? Say, King Sebastian doesn't go to war with Morocco, and therefore doesn't die. Without the Iberian Union, how would that effect things such as the Portuguese Empire and Spanish Empire? How would this effect Portuguese holdings in Asia? Would the Dutch and English still try to grab some Portuguese colonial holdings (IMO, most likely with the former case)

 

[Taunay]

The Portuguese Empire would probably be on a better shape without it being forced to participate in Spain's Europe wars and facing retaliation (such as the Dutch invasion of Portuguese colonies) due to it.

 

[Phalamus]

Not going to war in Morocco would require a significant change in Sebastian's personality and outlook, so in that case I guess that it begs the question of what does he do? Messianic crusading vs trade-oriented development were the main political divides in 15th and 16th century Portugal, and the country had a tendency to cycle between the two. The personal preferences of monarchs of course counted a lot for this, but it's not like there weren't other influential power movers on both sides at the time. There is a case to be made for some kind of pointless crusade in North Africa during Sebastian's reign being likely, though of course if the king really wanted to he could have chosen another path, and even if he does do something it doesn't need to be in the lines of the OTL campaign and obviously doesn't have to result in his death...

Anyway, colonials holdings are very safe ITTL, at least in the short term. Aviz dynasty Portugal had strong trade links with both England and the territories that were about to become the Dutch Republic, and odds are they would be content with maintaining the status quo for a fairly long time. If they do eventually choose to try to sail to Asia by themselves, they will likely just leave the Portuguese ports alone and establish their own holdings elsewhere. There's really not much to gain in starting a war when one doesn't already exist.

 

[Viriato]

An Iberian Union would have been easy to avoid, but at the time the rulers of Portugal actively sought a union of the crowns for their heirs, and they consistently wed themselves and their heirs to the dynasty of neighbouring Castile. The result was an increasingly inbred family where few children born survived into adulthood. Sebastian's parents were double first cousins and his father John Manuel was sickly, and died at the age of sixteen, fewer than three weeks before Sebastian was born. It was a miracle that Sebastian survived birth and lived into adulthood at all. His paternal grandparents John III of Portugal and Catherine of Austria had a total of nine children, yet only two survived into adulthood

Sebastian only had four individual great-grandparents rather than the maximum of eight, and one generation further back he only had six individual great-grandparents rather than the maximum of sixteen. Going back to the generation of Sebastian's fifth-great-grandparents he had a mere twenty-two individuals rather than the maximum of 128, displaying a much higher degree of consanguinity than even most royalty. Henry III of France by comparison had 104 individual fifth great-grandparents.

The other issue was that of Manuel I and Maria of Aragon's six sons surviving into adulthood, only two contracted legitimate marriages. Had Luis, Duke of Beja married legitimately his children would have been heirs to the throne of Portugal. His son Antonio, Prior of Crato was illegitimate and therefore his claim was a weak one. Infante Duarte (1515-1540), the Duke of Guimaraes was married Isabel of Bragança in 1537, and they had three children. Their son Duarte (1541-1576) was heir apparent, but he too died before Sebastian. Had he married and had children, this could have butterflied away the dynastic union. After him, Duarte's two daughters and their descendants had a stronger claim to the Portuguese throne than Philip II of Spain, but they waived their rights in 1580.

Traditionally, the succession rules in Portugal were by male-primogeniture, at the time of Sebastian's death the order of succession to the Portuguese throne would have looked like that below, with Philip II's claim being behind some others. However, the legitimate candidates all waived their rights in 1580. After the disaster of Alcácer Quibir (Ksar el-Kebir), Philip II paid a substantial amount in ransom money to the Sultan so as to return many of the imprisoned Portuguese nobles, this alone gave him a huge advantage in securing the Portuguese throne for himself.

1. Henry I of Portugal 1512-1580
2. Ranuccio Farnese, Duke of Parma 1569-1622
3. Odoarda Farnese, 1573-1626
4. Margherita Farnese 1567-1643
5. Catherine of Portugal, Duchess of Braganza 1540-1614
6. Teodosio of Bragança 1568-1630
7. Duarte of Bragança 1569-1627
8. Alexandre of Bragança 1570-1608
9. Maria of Bragança 1565-1592
10. Seraphina of Bragança 1566-1604
11. Cherubina of Bragança 1572-1580
12. Isabel of Bragança 1578-1582
13. Philip II of Spain 1527-1598
14. Ferdinand of Spain 1571-1578
15. Diego of Spain 1575-1582
16. Philip of Spain 1578-1621
17. Clara Eugenia of Spain 1566-1633
18. Catalina Micaela of Spain 1567-1597
19. Emmanuel Philibert of Savoy 1528-1580
20. Charles Emmanuel of Savoy 1562-1630
21. Maria of Austria 1528, 1603
22. Anna of Austria 1549-1580
23. Elisabeth of Austria 1554-1592
24. Mathias of Austria 1557-1619
25. John I of Bragança 1543-1583

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

I second Viriato here. Besides, even if Sebastian does survive and marry, he would most likely be childless. He was molested by a clergyman as a child and became infected with sexually-transmitted diseases as a result. We're talking about Sebastian's children having problems living to adulthood, but I sincerely doubt Sebastian's ability to even conceive a child in the first place.

A much better strategy is to save Duarte the Duke of Guimarães, who died only two years before Sebastian and (though I can't confirm this, I read this via-via) seemingly did so by his own hand (Sebastian treated him like dogpiss and ostracized him from the court). If Duarte doesn't off himself and lives a year or two longer, he will become second-in-line to the throne after Henrique, who might even by bypassed in favour of Duarte as the new king of Portugal. Duarte was nowhere near as inbred as Sebastian was and appeared to be in good health, so he has solid chances of siring offspring. Maybe the PoD is that Duarte marries earlier in his life and his spouse is able to keep him sane during Sebastian's bullying; with some much-needed stability in his life, Duarte doesn't think of suicide.

As for the ramifications; I'm a bit short on time now so I'll type this out later. But for now I can contribute a good PoD (or at least I'd like to believe that it is ).

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Alright, long overdue part 2

Let's start by debunking some common misconceptions:

The Netherlands would still declare war on Portugal for some reason and somehow they'd still win (and conquer Malacca, Ceylon, the Moluccas etc)
...Huh???

Look, I won't beat around the bush: this strikes me as extreme butterfly murder. And that's coming from a guy who indulges in that too sometimes due to taking chaos theory very loosely. The Dutch declared war on Portugal only because Portugal was a part of the Iberian Union, and thus ruled by Spain. This made it fair play, in the eyes of the Dutch, to go after the Portuguese colonies. ITTL, Portugal is not only independent, but also an ally of England and a potential Dutch ally against Spain.

So why would the Dutch randomly start a war of imperial conquest against a random country that is NOT an ally of Spain, while they're also fighting for their independence from Spain? It sounds like the perfect way to unironically commit suicide and ensure a successful Spanish reconquest of the Dutch Republic: "Hey, we're fighting for our independence against one of Europe's strongest empires and we need allies. Let's attack random neutral countries for no other reason than money and imperialism, this will ensure that people will want to help us!" If anything, starting a random invasion of a neutral country's colonies would only isolate the Dutch. Why help a bunch of rebels whose first instinct is to attack potential allies for money?

Furthermore, even if the Dutch are dumb enough to pick a fight with Portugal ITTL, they would almost certainly lose. The Portuguese were severly handicapped IOTL because their navy was incorporated into the Spanish armadas and sent to attack Britain and garrison the Philippines. ITTL, the Portugese have their entire navy at hand to fend off the Dutch and aren't being dragged into Spain's wars, so they'll most likely defeat the Dutch entirely.

Brazil would be restricted to the eastern coast of South America because of the Treaty of Tordesillas
I'm pretty sure the Treaty was not enforced in the Americas, and that Portugal was expanding westwards beyond the Tordesillas line already before the Iberian Union. Though, don't quote me on this.

For some potential ramifications:

• Likely a stronger Portuguese presence in Indonesia. They might be able to subjugate Ternate, the Moluccas and the Eastern Sunda Islands, maybe even Sulawesi.
• The Portuguese will keep a hold in Malacca, which would allow them to control trade routes through the Strait of Malacca.
  • Also, if Britain still colonizes Western Sumatra like they did IOTL, they'll actually hold on to it. IOTL, the Brits only turned over Bencoolen to the Dutch in exchange for Malacca. ITTL, the Dutch don't have Malacca, so there is no reason for Britain/England to relinquish Bengkulu.
• A continued presence on Sri Lanka.
• As the wedding of Catharine of Braganza with Charles II of England is butterflied, Portugal would also keep Tangier, on the North African coast, and Bombay.
• Portugal will likely remain a lot more prosperous due to not being dragged into European wars or having so many costly wars against the Dutch. They might hold on to their great power status for a lot longer.
• Furthermore, Portugal is unlikely to travel down the path of absolutism, as IOTL this happened under the Braganzas in 1698. The Cortes and nobles will likely retain more of a check on the King's authority ITTL.

If anything else comes to mind, I'll make another post.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Is Spain really going to restrict Portuguese presence in Brazil to the coast? There is nothing particulary interesting in the interior of Brazil and it is easier to get there fron Atlantic coast than from the Andes.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Is Spain really going to restrict Portuguese presence in Brazil to the coast? There is nothing particulary interesting in the interior of Brazil and it is easier to get there fron Atlantic coast than from the Andes.

Of course they won't, OTL didn't even bother to try except in very specific areas and they weren't successful. Nothing described here suggests that they will be more successful TTL. It's just that it sounds really good to say "Spain bad bad."

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Yep, exactly my thoughts.

It's often suggested in these kinds of threads that Brazil would not expand westwards without an Iberian Union, which I think is bogus. Hence why I brought it up in my previous post.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

As for the idea that the Netherlands would leave Portugal alone because it will identify it as a potential anti-Spanish ally... no, that's not happening.

This is basically because the reason NL attacked Portugal had nothing to do with anything the Spanish Empire did (If Netherlands was so determined to "pay back" the Spanish Empire, why didn't they attack Spanish possessions? Instead that they carefully avoided the Spanish America to go to Brazil instead) and much more to do with the desire for plunder and riches of the Dutch leaders, plus the fact that Portugal was a rival of NL for the Asian markets.

Considering also that at that time ideas such as "why should I build a colony when I can take it from someone weaker", and "you don't pray like me so that constitutes a legitimate casus belli against you" were considered correct...

...one can see that the Dutch plan was basically to build a presence in America at the expense of the Portuguese Empire, which in the process allows it to weaken a rival in the Asian markets.

I could even see them believing that perhaps England will switch from supporting Portugal to supporting Netherlands once NL "shows her strength" (and Portugal's weakness).

 

[Taunay]

I mean,

In 1592, during the war with Spain, an English fleet had captured a large Portuguese galleon off the Azores, the Madre de Deus, loaded with 900 tons of merchandise from India and China, worth an estimated half a million pounds (nearly half the size of English treasury at the time).[1] This foretaste of the riches of the East galvanized interest in the region.

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch–Portuguese_War

So wihout the Iberian Union, it's likely that the Madre de Deus wouldn't be captured and that Dutch/English interest in the East wouldn't be as big.
Also quoting from the Wiki:

Following the 1580 Iberian Union, Portugal was throughout most of the period under Habsburg rule, and the Habsburg Philip II of Spain was battling the Dutch Revolt. Prior to the union of the Portuguese and Spanish Crowns, Portuguese merchants used the Low Countries as a base for the sale of their spices in Northern Europe. After the Spaniards gained control of the Portuguese Empire though, they declared an embargo on all trade with the rebellious provinces (see Union of Utrecht). In his efforts to subdue the rebelling provinces, Philip II cut off the Netherlands from the spice markets of Lisbon, making it necessary for the Dutch to send their own expeditions to the sources of these commodities and to take control of the Indies spice trade. This followed the capture of Recife in which the Dutch assisted the English in capturing the Portuguese colony.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Of course, since this is alternate history, one could argue that the Dutch decide that they don't mind being the Portuguese's salesman when they can get the money and spices themselves.

Let's not forget that the whole business of fighting between the English and the Spanish in America began primarily because the English decided that they too wanted their share of American gold, and subsequently created all sorts of rationalizations to convince themselves that they were acting from higher motives. than simple greed.

It wouldn't be unusual if the Dutch, the English, or both decided to do something similar to what I described of trying to take the Asian market from the Portuguese.

(I omit the Spanish as the possible attacker here just because they already have enough work with their current conflicts, so they would hardly want to add another one for a market that did not seem so interesting to them anyway, as shown by the fact that in OTL they barely paid attention to the Asian market even when it was "Spanish Asia" under Iberian Union).

 

[Taunay]

Of course, since this is alternate history, one could argue that the Dutch decide that they don't mind being the Portuguese's salesman when they can get the money and spices themselves.

Let's not forget that the whole business of fighting between the English and the Spanish in America began primarily because the English decided that they too wanted their share of American gold, and subsequently created all sorts of rationalizations to convince themselves that they were acting from higher motives. than simple greed.

It wouldn't be unusual if the Dutch, the English, or both decided to do something similar to what I described of trying to take the Asian market from the Portuguese.

(I omit the Spanish as the possible attacker here just because they already have enough work with their current conflicts, so they would hardly want to add another one for a market that did not seem so interesting to them anyway, as shown by the fact that in OTL they barely paid attention to the Asian market even when it was "Spanish Asia" under Iberian Union).

I won't deny that sooner or later the Dutch/English would want to have direct control over Asia instead of relying on Portugal.
But with England and the Netherlands being focused on their wars with the Habsburgs, there's no reason why they would attack a neutral or even allied Portugal at this moment specifically, maybe after the wars are over, but this would mean that Portugal would have more time to strengthen and consolidate its control over its Asian colonies.

 

[Coluber]

• Furthermore, Portugal is unlikely to travel down the path of absolutism, as IOTL this happened under the Braganzas in 1698. The Cortes and nobles will likely retain more of a check on the King's authority ITTL.

If I recall correctly, Portugal was already going down that route since good ol' El-Rei Dom João Segundo

It's just that it sounds really good to say "Spain bad bad."

Hehehe
Yes it does.

(If Netherlands was so determined to "pay back" the Spanish Empire, why didn't they attack Spanish possessions? Instead that they carefully avoided the Spanish America to go to Brazil instead)

Spanish possessions were more solidly held. Portuguese control over Brazil must have seemed more tenuous (at first glance). Portuguese holdings in Asia at least, were pretty tenuous, and their lower population would have made them more vulnerable.
But I do get mistified as to why the Dutch didn't just go to Argentina instead. I hear from unreliable sources that the weather is more amenable.

By the way, hasn't RedAquilla written a thread about this subject?

 

[Taunay]

But I do get mistified as to why the Dutch didn't just go to Argentina instead

They wanted to. Nassau planned an invasion of Buenos Aires, but the WIC decided to attack Chile instead, with very few significant results.
As for why they didn't attack it first, it was because Pernambuco was much more economically productive and beneficial to hold, due to its sugar-cane industry

 

[AsukaEMP]

So wihout the Iberian Union, it's likely that the Madre de Deus wouldn't be captured and that Dutch/English interest in the East wouldn't be as big.

I think it's impossible to prevent Dutch interest in Asia and Brazil as 1. Antwerp used to be Portugal's port of choice for exporting spices, sugar, and other colonial goods to the rest of Europe, so the Dutch were perfectly aware of how profitable the East Indies were long before the 80YW had even broken out and 2. there were Dutch people working in the East Indies under Portuguese employ seeing this wealth with their own eyes.
So sooner or later the Dutch would inevitably get the idea of getting these goods directly from Asia, rather than playing Portugal's middle man. And when they do their intentions won't really matter, because the Portuguese would consider any intrusion in the East Indies as a hostile act.

Also even if the Portuguese inexplicably don't contest these foreign intrusions into "their" territory it would still prove disastrous for Portugal as the actual problem for them wasn't the Dutch taking their most important bases (that didn't happen until very late into the conflict), it was the loss of their monopoly. The value of Portuguese trade had already plummeted by the 1620s.​

 

[Taunay]

I think it's impossible to prevent Dutch interest in Asia and Brazil as 1. Antwerp used to be Portugal's port of choice for exporting spices, sugar, and other colonial goods to the rest of Europe, so the Dutch were perfectly aware of how profitable the East Indies were long before the 80YW had even broken out

Yes, but the Iberian Union accelerated this trend

So sooner or later the Dutch would inevitably get the idea of getting these goods directly from Asia, rather than playing Portugal's middle man. And when they do their intentions won't really matter, because the Portuguese would consider any intrusion in the East Indies as a hostile act.

I tend to disagree, I don't know if the Dutch always wished to have a colonial empire. Also without the Iberian Union Spain will be more focused on fighting the Dutch in the 80 Years' War, as the Portuguese Restoration War wouldn't be happening at the same time

Also even if the Portuguese inexplicably don't contest these foreign intrusions into "their" territory it would still prove disastrous for Portugal as the actual problem for them wasn't the Dutch taking 1`their most important bases (that didn't happen until very late into the conflict), it was the loss of their monopoly. The value of Portuguese trade had already plummeted by the 1620s.

I tend to think that a Portuguese King would probably have more awareness of the profitability issues of the Portuguese East Indies and would work on fixing these issues more than a Habsburg King that would need to focus on the Netherlands, Castile, Aragon and Portugal at the same time

 

[AsukaEMP]

I tend to disagree, I don't know if the Dutch always wished to have a colonial empire. Also without the Iberian Union Spain will be more focused on fighting the Dutch in the 80 Years' War, as the Portuguese Restoration War wouldn't be happening at the same time

It's not a matter of wanting a colonial empire or not, the predecessors of the VOC had no interest whatsoever in setting up colonies but they still sent fleets to Asia. The simple reality is that being a mere middleman subject to the whims and woes of a foreign monarch was not tenable and not in their best interest. The Dutch ran with it when the Portuguese kings were willing to put the Dutch in an advantaged position vis-à-vis the Germans, English, etc. And, just as importantly, as long as the Portuguese themselves were actually capable of meeting European demands. Both these things were already faltering before the Iberian Union was formed.
The embargo was far from the only reason why the Dutch sent a fleet, it's only the reason why they sent their first fleets in 1594 and not a decade or two later.​

I tend to think that a Portuguese King would probably have more awareness of the profitability issues of the Portuguese East Indies and would work on fixing these issues more than a Habsburg King that would need to focus on the Netherlands, Castile, Aragon and Portugal at the same time

Philip II and the other Habsburgs were perfectly aware of the issues in the Portuguese East Indies and attempted to improve the situation in several different ways but all of them were unsuccessful, including attempts that were thwarted by opposition to reforms from Portuguese merchants and nobles.​

 

[Taunay]

Philip II and the other Habsburgs were perfectly aware of the issues in the Portuguese East Indies and attempted to improve the situation in several different ways but all of them were unsuccessful, including attempts that were thwarted by opposition to reforms from Portuguese merchants and nobles.

A surviving Avis dynasty would have better relations, as it historically did with the nobility (at least compared to the Braganzas)

it's only the reason why they sent their first fleets in 1594 and not a decade or two later

This "decade or two later" can make all the difference when it comes to how Portugal will develop, and without the disaster of the Spanish Armada - in which many Portuguese fidalgos died - Portugal could be in a stronger position to fight against the Dutch

 

[AsukaEMP]

A surviving Avis dynasty would have better relations, as it historically did with the nobility (at least compared to the Braganzas)

That doesn't mean nobles wouldn't resist reforms that they perceive as threatening their own interests. It also doesn't mean that the other ideas that failed for completely different reasons would suddenly work.

Just look at the Portuguese East India Company for example. It largely followed the Dutch and English operating models and Philip III went to great length to ensure private investors would be interested, granting people who bought bonds for it great privileges and protection, giving it a monopoly for all of his possessions, and likewise allowing all his subjects to invest to maximize the pool of potential buyers... And it was still an utter disaster, failing to raise more than half of the required funds. It didn't make a profit and was terminated after barely half a decade of operations.

This "decade or two later" can make all the difference when it comes to how Portugal will develop, and without the disaster of the Spanish Armada - in which many Portuguese fidalgos died - Portugal could be in a stronger position to fight against the Dutch

I doubt a bunch of Portuguese noblemen dying in the 1588 Armada had much to do with Dutch successes in Malacca, Ceylon, etc. half a century later.
Also in the late 16th and early 17th c. the Portuguese empire was objectively better protected than it ever could have been if it was independent. Philip III wasn't neglecting the defenses of his Portuguese colonies at all and even used his Spanish resources to reinforce them, so did Philip IV during his early reign. Just look at the Iberian fleet that recaptured Bahia from the Dutch in 1625 for example, Spanish ships and men made up roughly two-thirds of that force.