No Habsburg Spain

[Grey Wolf]

But what would do England? Side with the Hapsburg and the Trastamara? Propose a Hispano-English block trying to take advantage of the rivalry of France and the Empire?

Well, you're looking at Henry VIII and he still dreamed of conquests in France - vis all the Field of the Cloth of Gold stuff, the almost siege of Paris and the successful campaign that fell apart in OTL because Charles V made peace when he no longer needed an English ally in the field.

The answer is...I don't know, but that's what you've got to take into consideration...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Condottiero]

Depends on Juan and whether he is able to leave his wife with Children that haven't died... It would probably be an eldest son of him that marries Isabella of Portugal then instead of Charles. From that standpoint the marriage to Mary Tudor is definitely possible and will change the efect of the Italian Wars....
Suffolk and Charles V march on Paris from the North perhaps. Juan defends Navarre.

If we stick to the premise of no spanish hapsburg, then Juan should have descendants or makes his sister's son Miguel to survive leading thus to an earlier union with Portugal and to a common policy in the Americas and Africa.

 

[Grey Wolf]

One thing I was thinking about with Henry VIII is that he may get his divorce from Katherine of Aragon and be able to wed Anne Boleyn IIRC 2 years earlier than OTL, and in much less acrimonious circumstances

OTL the fact that Charles V, Katherine's nephew was also King of Spain was a major stumbling block, made even more of one when Italy and the French king both fell into Charles' hands, giving him effective sole power over the Pope's decisions in this matter. This seems far less likely to occur here, either because Charles will be less bothered, or because Spain outside of his control exists as an additional block to his sole power over the Pope, or because he never gains the stunning victory over Francis I of France and France remains in the picture of Papal politics. In fact, the latter may mean that Charles continues to need Henry's support so would actually be inclined to swallow his dislike of the idea and give the divorce his tacit support.

That of course might depend on whether he's married Mary Tudor or not !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Tocomocho]

One thing I was thinking about with Henry VIII is that he may get his divorce from Katherine of Aragon and be able to wed Anne Boleyn IIRC 2 years earlier than OTL, and in much less acrimonious circumstances

OTL the fact that Charles V, Katherine's nephew was also King of Spain was a major stumbling block, made even more of one when Italy and the French king both fell into Charles' hands, giving him effective sole power over the Pope's decisions in this matter. This seems far less likely to occur here, either because Charles will be less bothered, or because Spain outside of his control exists as an additional block to his sole power over the Pope, or because he never gains the stunning victory over Francis I of France and France remains in the picture of Papal politics. In fact, the latter may mean that Charles continues to need Henry's support so would actually be inclined to swallow his dislike of the idea and give the divorce his tacit support.

That of course might depend on whether he's married Mary Tudor or not !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Looks like a perfect stupid casus belli for a naval war between England and Spain.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Looks like a perfect stupid casus belli for a naval war between England and Spain.

It does that doesn't it as whether Charles is disposed to defending his Aunt's interest is really a moot point if her brother still rules in Spain. So it depends on who has the most pull in Rome then. Henry or Juan or Charles and who is disposed to doing what on her behalf. Charles, Juan and Catherine are all still family remember.

So honestly I don't see Henry getting his anullment any sooner.

Personally I would like to see an heir for Juan and Margaret to carry on in Spain and Miguel surviving in Portugal to become King there. The Kingdoms would remain independent but could co-operate in areas of common interest like the Americas or North Africa.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Oh, and it just hit me, Ferdinand gained in his own right Bohemia ad hunagry by marriage. Now, even without the spansh inheritance, the Jagelliones would enter a marriage pac with Habsburg - both had to fear the Ottoman advance, and anyways, at that time nobody thought the marige pact would immidatly lead to Habsburg inheirting the lands. So Ferdinand would become King of Bohemia and King of Hungary...

I've been reading a bit on this and the arrangements for the marriages were made by Maximilian. Considering he's Emperor, he would still have the power and influence to get these through - after all Hungary wasn't looknig for Spanish involvement, but for Imperial/Austrian involvement

OTL Ferdinand was born in Castile, which would be different here - he would be born in the Netherlands like his brother.

Philip The Handsome OTL died very suddenly in Castile of a chill, or pneumonia induced by a chill, something that is hardly pre-ordained. Had he remained in the Netherlands he may well have lived to outlive his father, and thus succeeded as Emperor in 1519. Had he already been made King of the Romans ? I'm pretty sure of it

Being alive, one assumes that Philip would have the final say in the marriages of his children, although as Emperor and dynastic grand-daddy Maximilian would still have a lot of influence

And of course, as stated before, Charles of Ghent might get married to Mary Tudor, whilst she is still young (which was mooted at the time)

Which all means that whilst this is a Trastamara thread the greatest differences may well come in the Habsburgs...

Looking at the Trastamara, Juan would become King of Castile in 1504 but King of Aragon only on Ferdinand's death in 1516, unless Ferdinand abdicates or decides to let his son be Regent and focus personally on Naples instead. If he does the latter, who knows how butterflies would react to his prospects of a son from Germaine de Foix ?

Its also possible that Upper (Spanish) Navarre would not be annexed if Juan succeeds to the throne of Castile. Ferdinand II only did it in 1512 and the events leading to this could easily be very different

Of course, it would depend on what type of person Juan is - one assumes there is some evidence from his youth for this ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Tocomocho]

Looking at the Trastamara, Juan would become King of Castile in 1504 but King of Aragon only on Ferdinand's death in 1516, unless Ferdinand abdicates or decides to let his son be Regent and focus personally on Naples instead. If he does the latter, who knows how butterflies would react to his prospects of a son from Germaine de Foix ?

I think that he probably would not re-marry at all. Ferdinand wanted a united Spain centered in Spanish matters (he wasn't enthusiastic about the Indies, even) so you can figure how annoyed he was when the successive deaths of his sons leaded to Philip (a man that he hated so much) becoming the consort king of Castile. While he was alive he tried to conserve his influence over Castile and reduce as much possible the ones of Philip and Juana, who was virtually controlled by him (ah, stupid love). The wedding with Germaine de Foix was just his last card to <<save>> at least Aragon from the Habsburgs, and it failed.

Of course, it would depend on what type of person Juan is - one assumes there is some evidence from his youth for this ?

I have read that he was something impulsive, but what highly hormoned teenager isn't?

 

[Grey Wolf]

I think that he probably would not re-marry at all. Ferdinand wanted a united Spain centered in Spanish matters (he wasn't enthusiastic about the Indies, even) so you can figure how annoyed he was when the successive deaths of his sons leaded to Philip (a man that he hated so much) becoming the consort king of Castile. While he was alive he tried to conserve his influence over Castile and reduce as much possible the ones of Philip and Juana, who was virtually controlled by him (ah, stupid love). The wedding with Germaine de Foix was just his last card to <<save>> at least Aragon from the Habsburgs, and it failed.

A good point, it would be illogical to potentially disinherit his own son in Juan. One assumes he and Ferdinand got on pretty well.

Without the marriage to Germaine though, France would not cede to Aragon its rights in Naples, which in a book I read was described as being the effective dowruy of Germaine, briniging Louis' agreement with her but for the future potential son of both her and Ferdinand. This thus affects immediate developments in Naples

Without this promise, would Ferdinand actually intervene in Naples ? One assumes he still has effective control of Aragon after Juan's accession to Castile, so he can use Aragon's interests as an excuse, but what he cannot do is use Castilian money or manpower, at least not without Juan's agreement, and Juan would have decide what HE thought of the idea of intervention in Naples leading to likely war with France and dragging Castile into it

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Tocomocho]

A good point, it would be illogical to potentially disinherit his own son in Juan. One assumes he and Ferdinand got on pretty well.

Without the marriage to Germaine though, France would not cede to Aragon its rights in Naples, which in a book I read was described as being the effective dowruy of Germaine, briniging Louis' agreement with her but for the future potential son of both her and Ferdinand. This thus affects immediate developments in Naples

Without this promise, would Ferdinand actually intervene in Naples ? One assumes he still has effective control of Aragon after Juan's accession to Castile, so he can use Aragon's interests as an excuse, but what he cannot do is use Castilian money or manpower, at least not without Juan's agreement, and Juan would have decide what HE thought of the idea of intervention in Naples leading to likely war with France and dragging Castile into it

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Naples is firmly in Aragonese hands. It was conquered by González de Córdoba in 1503-04. Perhaps France could try something if she thinks that the fight would be against Aragon, but I don't think that there would be any chance in the near future.

 

[Hoplophile]

Crazy Joan and Handsome Phil ...

Without the 'Spanish yoke', the Netherlands has no particular reason to develop the institutions and ideas that turn a geographic expression ('the Low Countries') into a modern state (the United Provinces). In other words, if the Netherlands remain in Burgundian or 'German' hands, they remain what they had been for centuries - the western terminus of a Low German world that ran from Ostend to Riga.