Liberal Thoughts...
I've held off commenting on this one because part of it is a political discussion which can be had on other forums and part is a counterfactual history discussion which is what we are supposed to be considering.
I'll offer a little personal political anecdotal experience first if that's ok - I was much politically active in the 80s than I am now and I was out canvassing for the 1982 London Borough Electionc and I well remember going out in early March and finding (in my home Conservative Ward) that the Tory vote had collapsed with some abstaining and the rest going to vote SDP (not Liberal oddly enough). I was convinced that we were going to beat the Conservatives on the evidence of the canvass returns.
Without the Falklands War, I'm convinced that, marginal improvements in national opinion polls notwithstanding, the SDP and Liberals would have done well and the Conservatives badly in the May local council and GLC elections.
Data on the 1982 London elections is here:
http://data.london.gov.uk/documents/LBCE_1982-5-6.pdf
It's a big document (20MB) but fascinating.
I think you might have seen some of the advances of the late 80s and mid 90s happening earlier in 1982. There were also the Beaconsfield and Mitcham & Morden elections which were a hold and a gain for the Conservatives.
I could envisage a close hold in Beaconsfield and an SDP win in Mitcham and so much that happens in politics depends on momentum and public perceptions of momentum.
Given a more normal political atmosphere, I think the opportunities for SDP-Liberal advances in the 1982 by-elections are much greater and as we know the third party relies on the oxygen of by-election success.
I've held off commenting on this one because part of it is a political discussion which can be had on other forums and part is a counterfactual history discussion which is what we are supposed to be considering.
I'll offer a little personal political anecdotal experience first if that's ok - I was much politically active in the 80s than I am now and I was out canvassing for the 1982 London Borough Electionc and I well remember going out in early March and finding (in my home Conservative Ward) that the Tory vote had collapsed with some abstaining and the rest going to vote SDP (not Liberal oddly enough). I was convinced that we were going to beat the Conservatives on the evidence of the canvass returns.
Without the Falklands War, I'm convinced that, marginal improvements in national opinion polls notwithstanding, the SDP and Liberals would have done well and the Conservatives badly in the May local council and GLC elections.
Data on the 1982 London elections is here:
http://data.london.gov.uk/documents/LBCE_1982-5-6.pdf
It's a big document (20MB) but fascinating.
I think you might have seen some of the advances of the late 80s and mid 90s happening earlier in 1982. There were also the Beaconsfield and Mitcham & Morden elections which were a hold and a gain for the Conservatives.
I could envisage a close hold in Beaconsfield and an SDP win in Mitcham and so much that happens in politics depends on momentum and public perceptions of momentum.
Given a more normal political atmosphere, I think the opportunities for SDP-Liberal advances in the 1982 by-elections are much greater and as we know the third party relies on the oxygen of by-election success.