No 1868 Spanish Revolution, or Infante Juan, Count of Montizón becomes King of Spain?

So in 1868 Isabella II was deposed in Spain's own "Glorious Revolution" as it was called. IOTL, this kicked off a search for a new King and eventually a new dynasty, which resulted in King Amadeo I being the first and only King of Spain from the Savoy. Then Germany was united, the Third Carlist War happened and the rest was history.

But what if Amadeo, who famously claimed the Spanish people to be ungovernable, was not selected? Rather, what if the noted Liberal Infante Juan, son of the Count of Molina, became King of Spain? He was the Carlist claimant at the time, and his liberal views may have allowed him to govern with some amount of cross-political consensus. Of course he was apparently much too liberal for most Carlists and eventually gave up his rights for that of his eldest son's. But say Juan never signs away his rights and presses his claims to the Spanish throne in 1868, or the Duke of Montpensier, who was quite the schemer and a driving force behind the 1868 revolution, was ejected from Spain to prevent any Revolution at all?

If Juan came to the throne of Spain as Juan III, it would have some rather fascinating effects on France in particular. If there is no threat of a Prussian Spain, then OTL Franco-Prussian War never happens. But also, at the time, the heir to the cause of French Legitimism and the Comte de Chambord was non other than Juan himself. So if France's Second Empire falls in some manner similar to OTL, and his heir in the eyes of the Legitimists and himself is currently King of Spain, then the Comte de Chambord may have no choice but to face the music and accept the throne and the Orleans as his heirs, unlike where he rejected the throne on the basis of the tricolor but really because he didn't want the Orleans to become Kings of France again.

I am no expert on this topic by any means, but I just thought it raised some interesting possibilities.
 
The Count of Chambord is Henry of Bourbon, died 1885.
Yes, he had no kids and so when offered the French throne in exchange for accepting the Orleans as his heirs. Juan nominally accepted the Legitimist claim when Henri died, but ITTL he would be King of Spain in 1871 when Henri had to decide whether to spite the Orleans or restore the French monarchy. He accepted the former.
 
OTL Juan was never offered the throne because he'd abdicated his rights to it in 1868 in favour of his son. This was at a pressuring by the Carlists who didn't want to back the liberal Juan. Even after he'd abdicated- a fictioin only accepted by some Carlists (his stepmother, stepbrother and others refused to accept it, for instance)- nobody in the liberals in Spain even considered offering him the throne. Mostly because everyone knew that his heir would be his son, the ultra-Carlistist-Carlist Duque de Madrid.

And the whole French succession may also have loomed large in their minds, since between 1834 and 1871, practically nobody (not even the British) considered the Orléans clan as heirs to Chambord except the Orléans clan. Ergo, no job offer I'm afraid

@Drex @Kurt_Steiner @Ramontxo
 
interestingly though, if you wanted a "liberal" Spain by pushing someone who has a claim to the throne, you might do better with the Bavarian infantes. IIRC they were the front-runners (ahead of other candidates like both the duc de Montpensier and the Prince of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen). ICR what was the ultimate reason they decided to not go to Madrid though- I know Prim remarked after they'd finally refused that "finding a liberal Catholic prince in Europe is like finding an atheist in Heaven"
 
OTL Juan was never offered the throne because he'd abdicated his rights to it in 1868 in favour of his son. This was at a pressuring by the Carlists who didn't want to back the liberal Juan. Even after he'd abdicated- a fictioin only accepted by some Carlists (his stepmother, stepbrother and others refused to accept it, for instance)- nobody in the liberals in Spain even considered offering him the throne. Mostly because everyone knew that his heir would be his son, the ultra-Carlistist-Carlist Duque de Madrid.

And the whole French succession may also have loomed large in their minds, since between 1834 and 1871, practically nobody (not even the British) considered the Orléans clan as heirs to Chambord except the Orléans clan. Ergo, no job offer I'm afraid

@Drex @Kurt_Steiner @Ramontxo
If Amadeo didn't accept the throne, and the Duke of Montpensier was exiled from Spain, would they go for Juan or simply proclaim a Republic?

Also, if Juan got a chance to raise his sons, would they be more palatable to Spain itself?
 
If Amadeo didn't accept the throne, and the Duke of Montpensier was exiled from Spain, would they go for Juan or simply proclaim a Republic?
as mentioned, a half-Spanish Bavarian (namely the one who later married Isabel II's daughter I think) was offered the crown but either refused or was pressured to refuse.
Also, if Juan got a chance to raise his sons, would they be more palatable to Spain itself?
who would give him this chance? He was pretty much the most unpopular king in the Carlist party for his sympathies (he was also the closest a Spanish infante could get to an agnostic/religious skeptic).

Don Juan was undoubtedly the least dedicated. As a liberal representing a traditionalist cause, D. Juan started at a disadvantage: his heart was never really in the struggle. To this lack of conviction was added the family indolence and a personal reticence: he was a sensitive, affable, easy-going man, and as such, singularly ill-suited to lead the theatrical and anachronistic cause that was Carlism. A nineteenth-century progressive was hardly the man to breathe new life into what was, in essence, a sixteenth century crusade. His only political activity since his brother Montemolin's death had been a series of approaches to Queen Isabel in the hope of patching up the family vendetta. He had even gone so far, at one stage, as to make a formal submission to the Queen. "I renounce in a most solemn manner," he had written. "in my name and in the name of all my descendants, all my rights...I recognize your Majesty as my Queen and pledge fidelity to your Majesty and the Constitution." In reply to this abject submission he received a sharp letter from the Spanish ambassador in London, reminding him that he had no rights to renounce, an acceptance of his renunciation would imply that he had. Two years later, he visited Isabel, incognito, at La Granja, but this more direct approach was as unsuccessful as all the others. Disillusioned in his hope of making peace between the two branches, he retired from public life altogether and bought himself at Brighton. It was hardly surprising that as Isabel's reign began to show signs of tottering and the Carlists to become restive, they were unanimous on one point: Don Juan would not be the man to play Moses in their proposed return to the Promised Land.

In essence, D. Juan's "liberalism" to the Carlists is very much like the Duc de Nemours' "conservatism" to the Orléanists/French Republicans: completely unsuitable to the radical wing of the party.
 
If Amadeo didn't accept the throne, and the Duke of Montpensier was exiled from Spain, would they go for Juan or simply proclaim a Republic?
No one had Juan in mind as a future king, so they would proclaim the Republic after some arguments about it. BTW, if Juan Prim is still alive, this can be quite interesting.

as mentioned, a half-Spanish Bavarian (namely the one who later married Isabel II's daughter I think) was offered the crown but either refused or was pressured to refuse.
Leopold von Hohenzollern.
 
I think you are getting confused with Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria. Ludwig Ferdinand of Bavaria, who married Infanta María, was not considered for the crown. He was 9 in 1868.
my mistake, I didn't check how old he was.

Although to see a Carlist chosen as a king, perhaps they don't howl down Cabrera's suggestion at Bordeaux in 1868 (and again at Vervey in 1870), to try to "modernize" Carlism. The duque of Madrid's mother despised Cabrera- refusing to allow him to even see her son growing up- so naturally Cabrera was starting at a disadvantage. However, it was only in retrospect that the duque of Madrid tried to justify sacking his most faithful commander by claiming to have disliked him from their very first meeting, to have been disappointed by Cabrera's coarseness, cynicism and deceitfulness. In the beginning, Madrid and Cabrera got on well and the breaking point seems to have been the suggestion that the prime minister chose the cabinet and not the king.
 
I very much doubt that anyone would accept that a potential heir to the French throne sit on that of Spain.

This is asking for a "War of Succession, Part Two: This time we will stay with Menorca!" in the eyes of the British. And I wouldn't be surprised if the French proclaimed a Republic after the fall of the Second Empire to avoid that risk.

(This assuming that Spain does not give in to pressure to place someone who cannot be used as an excuse to create a Franco-Spanish union).
 

VVD0D95

Banned
I very much doubt that anyone would accept that a potential heir to the French throne sit on that of Spain.

This is asking for a "War of Succession, Part Two: This time we will stay with Menorca!" in the eyes of the British. And I wouldn't be surprised if the French proclaimed a Republic after the fall of the Second Empire to avoid that risk.

(This assuming that Spain does not give in to pressure to place someone who cannot be used as an excuse to create a Franco-Spanish union).
Not sure how serious Juana claim to the French throne would be. Given most legitimate acknowledged the Orleans once henri died
 
Not sure how serious Juana claim to the French throne would be. Given most legitimate acknowledged the Orleans once henri died
Considering that France was willing to go to war against Prussia solely to prevent a potentially Prussian-allied candidate from sitting on the Spanish throne, I would not be surprised if the British, French or both decide that it is better not to risk a war over that in the future. Even if Spain is a third-rate country by the standards of the time, I suspect they would believe that the risk is unacceptable.
 
This is asking for a "War of Succession, Part Two: This time we will stay with Menorca!" in the eyes of the British.
no it wouldn't. Because - as I've pointed out in several places - Britain was willing to accept D. Carlos as heir to Henri de Chambord in 1834 already. Carlos had three sons. In 1870, D. Juan has two sons. Juan was "deposed" by the Carlist party as their leader (i.e. they wouldn't accept him to be king of Spain) in the mid-1860s already. Which means that should Juan (by some miracle) become king of Spain in 1870, while he will remain Chambord's heir in "theory", everyone's going to know that the duque de Madrid, the "swan" after a series of Carlist ugly ducklings, is going to be the true power in France. And what luck, he just happens to be married to Chambord's niece as well. His Portuguese -married brother will wind up as heir-designate to Spain. And given that it doesn't seem slated that Maria de las Nieves will be childless (her situation OTL was caused by a miscarriage gone wrong in 1874 IIRC), there'd be no reason to suspect that there'll be a union of crowns.
 
I think that Juan as king of Spain would change little. His liberal views ensured that he was not a viable candidate for the Carlists so, when the Third Civil War comes and he finds pushed against his own son... that could go very nasty.

And, of course, Serrano and Montpensier will keep conspiring.

And, if he manages to keep the throne against all odds, he'a going to deal with Cánovas del Castillo and Sagasta...
 
no it wouldn't. Because - as I've pointed out in several places - Britain was willing to accept D. Carlos as heir to Henri de Chambord in 1834 already. Carlos had three sons. In 1870, D. Juan has two sons. Juan was "deposed" by the Carlist party as their leader (i.e. they wouldn't accept him to be king of Spain) in the mid-1860s already. Which means that should Juan (by some miracle) become king of Spain in 1870, while he will remain Chambord's heir in "theory", everyone's going to know that the duque de Madrid, the "swan" after a series of Carlist ugly ducklings, is going to be the true power in France. And what luck, he just happens to be married to Chambord's niece as well. His Portuguese -married brother will wind up as heir-designate to Spain. And given that it doesn't seem slated that Maria de las Nieves will be childless (her situation OTL was caused by a miscarriage gone wrong in 1874 IIRC), there'd be no reason to suspect that there'll be a union of crowns.
Was it still possible at the time for Juan's second son to have kids? Looking at his wiki page he seems to have never had any. That might affect his chances getting the throne of France.
 
Was it still possible at the time for Juan's second son to have kids? Looking at his wiki page he seems to have never had any. That might affect his chances getting the throne of France.
Maria das Neves' only pregnancy (in 1874) resulted in:


Their union produced only a son who died some hours after his birth, in 1874. They were unable to have more children and died childless.

Now, as for the exact circumstances, IIRC there was a slight fender-bender carriage accident (or was it a train/tram car?) involved- Alfonso Carlos was a bit of a train nut FWIR (much to the disapproval of his fellow Carlists apparently*)- and she went into prem labour. The son was born, but died shortly after. IDK if the birth physically injured her or there was a mental trauma (a bit of PTSD of the accident and then losing her son) that was the reason why they couldn't have more kids. Given that this happened in Vienna or Prague IIRC and, if Juan becomes king of Spain in 1868, it's unlikely that Alfonso Carlos and his wife are in the same place as OTL in 1874. Even if they are, an accident would be easily butterfliable (either simply have Maria das Neves just not go with that day or let the accident not happen).
 
Now, as for the exact circumstances, IIRC there was a slight fender-bender carriage accident (or was it a train/tram car?) involved- Alfonso Carlos was a bit of a train nut FWIR (much to the disapproval of his fellow Carlists apparently*)- and she went into prem labour. The son was born, but died shortly after. IDK if the birth physically injured her or there was a mental trauma (a bit of PTSD of the accident and then losing her son) that was the reason why they couldn't have more kids. Given that this happened in Vienna or Prague IIRC and, if Juan becomes king of Spain in 1868, it's unlikely that Alfonso Carlos and his wife are in the same place as OTL in 1874. Even if they are, an accident would be easily butterfliable (either simply have Maria das Neves just not go with that day or let the accident not happen).
Say Juan becomes King of Spain by some miracle; how would the prospect of having the second son of the King of Spain be the heir to the French throne affect the French monarchist movement? It seems the Orleanists reached a consensus that they could tolerate Chambord, but would the chances of a French restoration increase or decrease in this scenario?

Also, I'd love to be able to read about this first hand. What sources do you use?
 
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