New World Empire: The Second Term of George H.W. Bush

1. Introduction
gulfwarpic.jpg

"A new partnership of nations has begun, and we stand today at a unique and extraordinary moment. The crisis in the Persian Gulf, as grave as it is, also offers a rare opportunity to move toward an historic period of cooperation. Out of these troubled times, our fifth objective—a new world order—can emerge: A new era—freer from the threat of terror, stronger in the pursuit of justice and more secure in the quest for peace. An era in which the nations of the world, east and west, north and south, can prosper and live in harmony."
-George HW Bush at his State of the Union address; September 1990

"Conservatives these days succumb easily to the charming old metaphor of the United States as a 'city on a hill.' They hark back, as George Kennan did in these pages not long ago, to the admonition of John Quincy Adams that America ought not go 'abroad in search of monsters to destroy.' But why not? The alternative is to leave monsters on the loose, ravaging and pillaging to their hearts’ content, as Americans stand by and watch. What may have been wise counsel in 1823, when America was a small, isolated power in a world of European giants, is no longer so, when America is the giant. Because America has the capacity to contain or destroy many of the world’s monsters, most of which can be found without much searching, and because the responsibility for the peace and security of the international order rests so heavily on America’s shoulders, a policy of sitting atop a hill and leading by example becomes in practice a policy of cowardice and dishonor."
-William Kristol and Robert Kagan; Toward a Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy; July 1996
 
2. Line in the Sand
Saddam's Bunker, Baghdad, Iraqi Republic
December 10, 1990


Sprawled over the table lay maps of the Iraqi plains and swamps, the places they had defended so vigorously just a decade ago. But the focus of the table was the largest map, that of Baghdad itself, which despite the downplaying to the state media by that moronic minister, was mere hours away from being entered by the Coalition. A distant muffled sound reminded the room that Predator missiles fired from aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf were making sure all accommodations were in order.

Saddam ignored it all, poring through the maps once again as his officers waited awkwardly.

"What about our air defenses?" Saddam questioned.

"We're down to 5% of original capacity, Excellency," an Air Force Commander promptly answered. "Even that is only there because we've held off on using it after that first week. The damn French sold us completely useless systems."

"How many infantry divisions do we have? Of the regular army and the Republican Guard?" he demanded.

A General that had been by his side since 1979 just laughed. "Divisions, Marshal? There are no divisions left." That was dangerous. No, not that they were down to scattered battalions at best and squads at worst. It was the fact that the General would dare speak like that to him...

Saddam bristled but said no more, his eyes returning to his map but his mind elsewhere. How had everything gone so wrong? That bitch Ambassador had guaranteed him, had bloody guaranteed him, that it was not the US's interest what Iraq did with her regional neighbors. What the was that about?!

That thrice damned President Bush had the nerve to park his Airborne troops in Saudi Arabia and speak of how "this will not stand" and how Iraq must leave Kuwait. The hypocrisy. He found nothing wrong when he attack Noriega so the Yankees could take over production of the drug market. And now they were here for his oil, with several carrier strike teams and the US Airborne preparing to enter Saudi Arabia.

That's when his generals now murmured that Saddam had gone awry, that instead they should sit around and wait, that surely their army with the best of the Soviet Union's technology was enough to defend Kuwait or that the west would gasp at the military costs of actually forcing Iraq out, that surely this was just posturing. But Saddam saw differently. He could see that incompetent buffoon Bush wanted a propaganda victory for his Empire, to keep the rubes in check and obeying his every word. This was not about Kuwait but about Bush himself since he wasn't able to have all of Congress gathered in a room to be purged like Saddam could. So Bush would come in, and right now, the only leverage Saddam had was the Kuwaiti oil fields and some British hostages. No, he would not sit and wait, hoping such meager hostages was enough. He would need to go further, make it absolute hell for the West to come in. If the West wanted a war, he would give them a war. He remembered that fateful day, when he gave the orders.

"When this is over, we shall celebrate in Mecca. Prepare to invade Saudi Arabia."

While it started off well, the omens of doom were all there. The tremendous resistance of the 82nd Airborne Division, the immediate oil shortage for the T72s on the road to Khafji, the immediate and universal condemnation of the international community even steadfast Muslim friends like Yemen. But the Guard proved their worth and the Saudis the opposite. The core of the oil fields was held by Iraq with clear understanding that he'd put them to the torch if the West were to invade, and for a brief moment, it looked like Saddam had won it all.

To experience that again, just one more time.

Before Bush declared him the new Hitler. Before Schwarzkopf blasted apart his precious Republican Guard. Before the Kurds and Shias had risen up and slaughtered Baath officials as Bush gave the orders for the Coalition to push out of newly liberated Kuwait and press to Baghdad.

To remember what it was like before then...

"Excellency. Excellency!"

Saddam awoke from his thoughts as one of the young Colonels who had cut his teeth in the trenches fighting the radicals of Iran leaned over him. "We have to get you out of Baghdad, Excellency. Move you to the Site C or the Americans will capture you."

The officers in the room all nodded. Saddam meekly looked back at the map of Baghdad. Perhaps there was a way he could have won, if Bush had balked at the idea of the world's oil supply in flames. But that was the past now.

"Let's go then."

Saddam followed the Colonel outside of the bunker and through the empty halls of the office building that the bunker was hidden under. Its cheap drywall made Saddam only miss his Palace, before twenty Tomahawk missiles pounded it to rubble and killed his sons. Finally, they reached a hallways where bodyguards lined the hall on the path to exit where an armor plated Cadillac waited to whisk him away to the next hiding spot. He wasn't sure what his new home outside of Iraq would be though. Assad surely wouldn't want to see him. Perhaps Sudan? Either way, it was the last time he'd live with such loyalty and devotion around him. Filled with emotion, he turned to one of his personal bodyguards lining the walls, to wish him well against the Crusaders. But the bodyguard was someone he didn't recognize. In fact, none of the bodyguards here he recognized.

Saddam stopped.

"Excellency?" the Colonel said, turning his head towards the President.

Saddam's face was placid. And then he chuckled. "How much did the Crusaders pay you, Colonel?"

The Colonel shrugged. "Nothing at all. I'm just trying to preserve the Baath and Iraq from complete destruction. Just like you did."

"Fair enough," Saddam replied serenely.

"Will you get in the car?"

"No, I don't think I will."

"Shame."

Saddam straightened his posture. Then, with defiance on his face, he gave a salute.

"Long live Iraq," he declared.

"Long live Iraq," the Colonel agreed.

Saddam closed his eyes seconds before a storm of bullets shredded his body.
 
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Well, I'm intrigued! Watching with interest.
Interesting
Subscribed.
Thanks for the support, everyone! Please feel free to speculate as well. This is a work in progress. There are certain things I have certainly planned out but I also could use discussions to help figure out the way to make this timeline realistic and believable but also interesting!
 
Any timeline that butterflies away the Second Iraq War is one I'm very interested in. The fact that it has good writing is a nice cherry on top of the sundae.
 
Oh man. Post-Saddam Iraq with a UN-sanctioned occupying force, the Iraqi army smashed, and no Shiite memory of a 1991 "stab in the back" by the United States?

Bring it on, one might say.
 
Very interesting indeed!

So, if I understood correctly, the Saddam has directely attacked Saudis, and taken the oilfields there? This certainly reduces the chances that there is going to be a repeat performance a decade or so later, especially since Saddam is out of the picture and removed by his own.

Now, I do look forward to seeing what is going to be done in regards to Yugoslavia and its breakup. The situation is going to escalate there and rather quickly, Democratic elections have been held already in Slovenia and Croatia, and on 25th of June both nations are going to declare independence, which is going to result in conflict. Slovenia is rather easy, it lasted 10 days, after which YPA retreated, but in Croatia it is going to get nasty, as Log Revolution, Siege of Barracks and Serbian revolt (backed by YPA) escalates into open war. Croatia and (a bit later) Bosnia&Herzegovina do not need UN observers whose hands are completely tied and who are useless in protecting the civilian (like what happened on Srebrenica), but actual military intervention, of one wishes to avoid the bloodbath and make the Serbs back down and stop dreaming of Greater Serbia.

Barring direct US intervention, only thing that would actually help, is to force Franjo Tuđman(CRO) and Alija Izetbegović(BiH) to sit together and have something like Washington Agreement, some years earlier. So that Croatia does not start having its own dreams of Greater Croatia, and does not support Croatian minority in BiH into waging the war against the Bosnian part. If the Balkans are not worth the bones of a single P̶r̶u̶s̶s̶i̶a̶n̶ ̶G̶r̶e̶n̶a̶d̶i̶e̶r̶ ahem, I mean US Marine, and no intervention is coming knock some heads together, make some threats (subtle or no) and have them agree on borders as they are now and as they were between Federal Republics, so nobody gets any clay.
 
Very interesting indeed!

So, if I understood correctly, the Saddam has directely attacked Saudis, and taken the oilfields there? This certainly reduces the chances that there is going to be a repeat performance a decade or so later, especially since Saddam is out of the picture and removed by his own.

Now, I do look forward to seeing what is going to be done in regards to Yugoslavia and its breakup. The situation is going to escalate there and rather quickly, Democratic elections have been held already in Slovenia and Croatia, and on 25th of June both nations are going to declare independence, which is going to result in conflict. Slovenia is rather easy, it lasted 10 days, after which YPA retreated, but in Croatia it is going to get nasty, as Log Revolution, Siege of Barracks and Serbian revolt (backed by YPA) escalates into open war. Croatia and (a bit later) Bosnia&Herzegovina do not need UN observers whose hands are completely tied and who are useless in protecting the civilian (like what happened on Srebrenica), but actual military intervention, of one wishes to avoid the bloodbath and make the Serbs back down and stop dreaming of Greater Serbia.

Barring direct US intervention, only thing that would actually help, is to force Franjo Tuđman(CRO) and Alija Izetbegović(BiH) to sit together and have something like Washington Agreement, some years earlier. So that Croatia does not start having its own dreams of Greater Croatia, and does not support Croatian minority in BiH into waging the war against the Bosnian part. If the Balkans are not worth the bones of a single P̶r̶u̶s̶s̶i̶a̶n̶ ̶G̶r̶e̶n̶a̶d̶i̶e̶r̶ ahem, I mean US Marine, and no intervention is coming knock some heads together, make some threats (subtle or no) and have them agree on borders as they are now and as they were between Federal Republics, so nobody gets any clay.
Yes, Saddam worried about Bush's steps towards Desert Shield, guessed what it was a prelude to, and decided to gamble and plunge into Saudi Arabia to hold the oilfields hostage there and hopefully get the West to back down. He held the oilfields but Bush called his bluff even if it meant global destabilization of the oil supply. In fact, it only made him even more certain this was what he had to do.

Yugoslavia is something I know will have to be a big part of the timeline but frankly, it's so intimidating to even keep track of all the moving parts, much less imagine what the US would do with a Presidency more open to intervention. Seems Croatian actions didn't really get much blowback and only Serbian atrocities did? Were there calls for intervention earlier in the conflict?
 
Yugoslavia is something I know will have to be a big part of the timeline but frankly, it's so intimidating to even keep track of all the moving parts, much less imagine what the US would do with a Presidency more open to intervention. Seems Croatian actions didn't really get much blowback and only Serbian atrocities did? Were there calls for intervention earlier in the conflict?

Dude, I live here, and it is hard enough for me to keep track of who killed who and who burned whose village. So no worries about that...

Thing is, Croatians did do quite a number of atrocities, but something that went in our favour (no matter how horrifying that may sound) is that we were obviously defending ourselves and we were a weaker side in the conflict. Add in Serbs bombarding every town and village on their way, with Siege of Dubrovnik especially important thing, which really brought international attention, and work done by Croatian Emigree communities around the world (from USA, Canada, Germany, Australia, S.America) in advocating for Croatia... It also has to be recognized that (when compared to Serbs) War Crimes commited by Croatia were much smaller in size and scope, and more often then not, acts of personal revenge, not actively encouraged by Croatian Government. It is true that war crimes are war crimes, no matter who commits them, be he defender or aggressor, but when you have something like Vukovar Massacre with 260 wounded soldiers and civilians massacred, things like Murder of Zec Family, torture of Serb POWs and Civilians in Lora POW Camp, does fall into background somewhat, not to mention that Srebrenica Massacre and Serb Exodus after Operation Storm in '95, do take spotlight in the foreign perception of the conflict.

Sad thing is, we do get along nowadays (more or less), no matter how strange that may sound. One of the most popular music types in Croatia is Serbian Turbofolk, no matter the screams of horror and accusations of treason the Veterans and Nationalist do level against the Croatian Youth that listens to such music. Not to mention that Serbia is our greatest trading partner, especially since Croatian brands (especially food) do have a good reputation there, not to mention that we always vote for them (and they for us) on Eurovision (it is the greatest tool of Geopolitics and I will fight anyone who denies that! ;) ) so that conclusively proves we are at peace! :p

Though, it may not sound all that important, but sports do matter a lot here, it is sometimes said that Independence war started on the Football Field. But then again, 2018 Football World Cup Russia, the Croatian team goalkeeper was a Croatian Serb, and I remember a Newspaper Article mocking the Nationalists, article which stated, that amongst all these Great Nationalists, the Croatian Homeland was defended by a Serb, which really shut up quite a few people.

It is a sad thing just how much obssesion we have with Serbs and vice versa, it is almost guaranteed that on Croatian/Serbian News you will have a mention of the other nation, be it in positive or negative light. We simply can not stand each other sometimes, but we also can not do without the other. As was said a few times by both sides, if we do not have the Serbs/Croats to blame for our problems, we would have to blame ourselves. ;) heh.
 
Interesting and indeed that with the Yugoslavia, conflict looming on the horizon, it 'd probably that cause to shift the Admin attention there, exclusively, except that I don't think that mess that 'd have become Irak 'd have an easy fix.. Also, I think that 'd be near unavoidable that the US 'd should have if not effectively occupy at least parts of Irak, at least 'd have to deploy and to keep stationed permanently, on Kuwait and KSA, US troops...
 
Am I wrong for being interested in this because I want to see how Quayle does? Does the GOP look for someone who's not gaffe-prone or would Quayle be a lock for the GOP's 1996 nomination because he's vice president?
 
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