New Union Treaty: Aftermath

[Petete123123]

As many may know, in 1991 in the USSR the government tried to save the union by what was called the New Union Treaty. Most off the member republics voted to join it and IIRC Ukraine was on its way to do so. The August coup meant this idea never got to be followed and we know how things followed.

If it had gone through, it would have been composed of Russia, Ukraine, Byelorussia, Azerbaijan and the Central Asian republics.

Now my questions are.

How do you think this new country would fare? Can it survive or is it doomed to fall apart?

Would the government and economic reforms impulsed by Gorbachev hold or would they have to be replaced/improved?

How would the population of this country evolve? Would it avert the trends that plague most of OTL succesor states? Will Russian become even more of a common language to the various nationalities?

How would such country effect the global balance of power? Would it somehow mean a continuation of the cold war, minus the ideological element? How may it effect the rise of China?

 

[rfmcdonald]

We know from the examples of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia that economic reform in post-communist federations is enormously risky, to the point of the economic issues involved helping to trigger breakups. The Czechs and Slovaks separated partly because each group was lead by people with different, while the disaffection of the Slovenes and Croats was spurred partly because of concerns over national economic policy. Republics contended against each other and against the national government, leading to breakups.

I don't think economic reform is going to be notably more successful in this setting, with the continued integration of most of the core republics of the Soviet Union. I can easily imagine things being worse, with constitutional reform and political instability in an awkward federation complicating things further. I can lead this leading to a Yugoslav-style breakup.