New Deal Coalition Retained Pt II: World on Fire

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IntellectuallyHonestRhino

IntellectuallyHonestRhino

All Hail Enterprise said:
Well, rip Kuwait.

And since Saddam can now pull the anticommunist card, I don't think an operation a la Desert Storm style is going to be happening for a long time, perhaps ever.

27rvrt.jpg
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Gonna pull this one off again:

Your meme is "Saddamnest" thing!
 

Prince Daemon Targaryen

lord caedus said:
Since No Southern Strategy and Presidential are leading ATM, I'd like to boost Lazarus, Icarus and Canadian Politics, which is criminally under supported given how well CanadianTory writes about politics both in Canada and outside of it.




I've pulled up the actual update to your TL where Mandela is freed, starting from immediately after TTL's Soweto riots, under the spoiler since it's long and I don't really think it's fair to post a whole post in from a contender to win in the actual thread:


Let me point out that the infobox has the "black roll" at 20 seats out of a total of 200. IOTL 1980, blacks made up over 70% of the South African population.

So, in summary, here's the situation you had Nelson Mandela accept upon his release in your TL:

1. Black opposition groups must swear an oath of allegiance to the apartheid government and renounce communism and socialism in order to stand for election.
2. White South Africans will still, by law, control 90% of seats in the House of Assembly despite being a minority of the population.
3. The South African government will invest some more money into helping black and colored communities after grievously underfunding them for decades, but no apparent effort will be made to repeal apartheid laws except for citizenship and voting laws that, as previously mentioned, are neutered to prevent challenging white, minority rule.
4. The South African government will support natalist policies for white South Africans and encourage European immigration while doing all it can to deport unruly black South Africans to Bantustans or exile abroad, while doing population transfers with its neighbors in exchange for more white people.

IMO, it doesn't seem like a stretch for readers to conclude that you wrote Mandela to basically accept working in the apartheid system.

EDIT: Calbear posted while I was finishing this up. Will delete if need be.
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I'm gonna respond to this here not to ruin the turtledoves for others unlike some seem to want to do. In any case, coming to this conclusion is ignorant. Let me tell everyone exactly what has happened in South Africa since this post and the war.

First, this system was only in place for that one election. It was meant to ensure that blacks would get representation in Parliament even though the initially limited numbers would likely be drowned out in the district system. In the 1980s hundreds of thousands each year were granted the franchise, the black roll abolished and every citizen voting in the election equally. By 1990, 40% of the black population and any black that had completed a tour of duty in the military or was wounded in action would be made a full citizen. All non-citizens were given full political rights short of voting (in addition to the banning of all communist or communist-affiliated organizations), and the Bantustan/population exchange policy was only used for a few years for those that were deemed communist sympathizers. The Army is fully desegregated (except for a few historical units), and 33% of MPs are black or Coloured by 1988. Right before the war, the government was a coalition between the National Party and the ANC. In November 1990, Pretoria passed a bill calling for universal suffrage in 1993, along with the scheduling of elections for then.

To say that the system in 1978-1980 was the one Mandela would solely accept is crazy, and it wasn't what the moderate members of the ANC accepted. Essentially, the militant wing had become Focoist and they were faced with a choice of moderate or racial war. If Klansman Hugo Black could end up voting for Brown v. Board of education then how is Andries Treurnicht essentially becoming F.W. de Klerk in a situation far more favorable to moderate compromise impossible?

So to recap, South Africa ITTL is basically on it's way to becoming OTL pre-1994 South Africa but with universal suffrage for all races. This change is caused by the lack of sanctions by the west making South Africa richer and more accepted in the international community (ironically, making them more amenable to compromise) and the increased communist militancy creating the plausibility of a communist/black nationalist dictatorship if a full overthrow of the Apartheid regime happened overnight.
 
IntellectuallyHonestRhino

IntellectuallyHonestRhino

The Congressman said:
I'm gonna respond to this here not to ruin the turtledoves for others unlike some seem to want to do. In any case, coming to this conclusion is ignorant. Let me tell everyone exactly what has happened in South Africa since this post and the war.

First, this system was only in place for that one election. It was meant to ensure that blacks would get representation in Parliament even though the initially limited numbers would likely be drowned out in the district system. In the 1980s hundreds of thousands each year were granted the franchise, the black roll abolished and every citizen voting in the election equally. By 1990, 40% of the black population and any black that had completed a tour of duty in the military or was wounded in action would be made a full citizen. All non-citizens were given full political rights short of voting (in addition to the banning of all communist or communist-affiliated organizations), and the Bantustan/population exchange policy was only used for a few years for those that were deemed communist sympathizers. The Army is fully desegregated (except for a few historical units), and 33% of MPs are black or Coloured by 1988. Right before the war, the government was a coalition between the National Party and the ANC. In November 1990, Pretoria passed a bill calling for universal suffrage in 1993, along with the scheduling of elections for then.

To say that the system in 1978-1980 was the one Mandela would solely accept is crazy, and it wasn't what the moderate members of the ANC accepted. Essentially, the militant wing had become Focoist and they were faced with a choice of moderate or racial war. If Klansman Hugo Black could end up voting for Brown v. Board of education then how is Andries Treurnicht essentially becoming F.W. de Klerk in a situation far more favorable to moderate compromise impossible?

So to recap, South Africa ITTL is basically on it's way to becoming OTL pre-1994 South Africa but with universal suffrage for all races. This change is caused by the lack of sanctions by the west making South Africa richer and more accepted in the international community (ironically, making them more amenable to compromise) and the increased communist militancy creating the plausibility of a communist/black nationalist dictatorship if a full overthrow of the Apartheid regime happened overnight.
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So do the Afrikaners and English South Africans largely stay? That would also be very helpful for the South African economy. I hope there is a larger middle class today in the TL.
 

Prince Daemon Targaryen

IntellectuallyHonestRhino said:
So do the Afrikaners and English South Africans largely stay? That would also be very helpful for the South African economy. I hope there is a larger middle class today in the TL.
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Immigration from Eastern Europe and Latin America is huge, along with middle class, pro-Western blacks from the socialist African states. A lot of pro-English blacks came to South Africa from Nigeria to escape the communists.
The living standard of Black South Africans has increased exponentially since Bewaring was implemented.
 

Gordian

The Congressman said:
If Klansman Hugo Black could end up voting for Brown v. Board of education then how is Andries Treurnicht essentially becoming F.W. de Klerk in a situation far more favorable to moderate compromise impossible?
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Because Hugo Black and Andries Treurnicht were completely different people.
 

Pyro

President Earl Warren said:
It could be talking about the effects the war is having on pop culture at this point.
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That reminds me, I have some thoughts for @The Congressman regarding popular culture as butterflies fluttered away Star Wars from what I have read. This would have a noticeable effect on the comic book industry as it was the licensed Star Wars comic that kept Marvel afloat in the late 1970s before Jim Shooter took over as editor-in-chief and reorganized the company. Without Star Wars it is very possible that Marvel's then-parent company Cadence Industries would sell its comic books arm. Assuming Superman (1978) still happens, maybe one of Hollywood's other studios (maybe Paramount or Columbia) buys out Marvel to use its IPs for film and television to get a slice of the superhero pie.

I'm just spitballing here, but I thought a Captain America film released around 1989/90 would be an ideal film to boost morale on the home front and give younger demographics a diversion from the fighting abroad. I don't mean to be presumptuous, but perhaps the December Coup would prompt said studio to green light the film. The would be some noticeable changes such as the Red Skull's nationality switched from German to Russian to with HYDRA having a more Stalinist bent. Similarly, a potential Iron Man film can switch the locales from the jungles of Southeast Asia to the South American rainforest with only minimal tweaks to the character's origins.
 

Prince Daemon Targaryen

Pyro said:
That reminds me, I have some thoughts for @The Congressman regarding popular culture as butterflies fluttered away Star Wars from what I have read. This would have a noticeable effect on the comic book industry as it was the licensed Star Wars comic that kept Marvel afloat in the late 1970s before Jim Shooter took over as editor-in-chief and reorganized the company. Without Star Wars it is very possible that Marvel's then-parent company Cadence Industries would sell its comic books arm. Assuming Superman (1978) still happens, maybe one of Hollywood's other studios (maybe Paramount or Columbia) buys out Marvel to use its IPs for film and television to get a slice of the superhero pie.

I'm just spitballing here, but I thought a Captain America film released around 1989/90 would be an ideal film to boost morale on the home front and give younger demographics a diversion from the fighting abroad. I don't mean to be presumptuous, but perhaps the December Coup would prompt said studio to green light the film. The would be some noticeable changes such as the Red Skull's nationality switched from German to Russian to with HYDRA having a more Stalinist bent. Similarly, a potential Iron Man film can switch the locales from the jungles of Southeast Asia to the South American rainforest with only minimal tweaks to the character's origins.
Click to expand...
I like this. If anyone is willing to write a guest post on something like this, I'd be happy to make it canon :D
 
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