Last night, and after 2 weeks of (for one reason or another) watching/reading things regarding the Med campaign, a thought popped into my mind: what if Malta was neither british or italian? What if Malta was owned by someone else?
I feel there are 3 ways this could go:
1: Malta is an independent country. I think that, considering the ongoing 1940 desert campaign, this would lead to Italy/Germany either strong arming Malta to allow "basing/overflying rights", or outright conquering it, to protect & support North Africa. I don't think the UK would do this, simply because it did not have the resources to do it; after the debacle of the Greek and Crete campaign, there was no way it would have the troops, ships and aicraft to do it; the effort required would make Pedestal look like a walk in the park. Not because of any realistic defenses Independent Malta would have, but because of the need to escort a fleet that would include troop carriers from Gibraltar. So now there's nothing to stop the flow of supplies & reinforcements to North Africa, except whatever the RAF/RN could deploy in Egypt. But the distances are too great to allow intervention in usefull time and, with convoys routed between Malta and Tunisia, these would have full air and naval coverage based on Malta. Realistically, only submarines would have a chance, but casualties would be high. Minelaying subs would be a priority, I think.
2: Malta is French. This means Vichy. Could the UK rush in fast and hard enough in 1940 to take it over? Would Malta itself decide to go "Free French" and join the allies in 1940? Tactically we would be pretty much back to OTL: Malta becomes an allied choking point, messing up the Axis' North Africa campaign. But strategically & politically this could be messy: the UK would now have invaded part of "France". How would Vichy react, apart from histerical screaming? The Uk would have get there after neutralizing the fleet at Mers-el-Kébir, only I think there's every chance these would say up to Malta, under the cover of "friendly" italian/german aircraft. But now Vichy would be in the alert, so it would certainly do whatever it could to reinforce it, and I doubt the Axis would object to this. And German propaganda would have a field day, playing the "much betrayal from UK" angle. Again.
2a: Malta is part of a Neutral country; let's say Malta is part of Spain. Technially Spain is an Axis friend, but Franco did everything he could to avoid getting into the war; his dance around Hitler's requests became legend. Allowing Malta to become an Axis base would almost certainly bring Spain into the conflict; at the very least I suspect Roosevelt would impose an embargo on Spain, a disaster in the making since Spain got most (all?) of it's oil from the US (I belive other products as well, but cannot find which). I think this would end up with Axis convoys simply sailing around Malta at will, and Axis aircraft overflying Malta as needed, with the Spanish turning a blind eye. When the UK / US protest, Franco simply says "there's nothing I can do, hombres".
2: Malta is part of a Neutral country; let's say Malta is part of Turkey. Both sides in the war kept courting Turkey to join their side, so I doubt anyone would do anything to disturb Malta's status. The Axis would sail clear around it, with aircraft avoiding it's airspace (no great loss in ranges, in either case, so easy to do), and the UK would stay away, since it would no longer be able to operate in the area anyway; the RN would be reduced to submarines, but I think it would avoid mining, for fear of hiting a Turkish ship. La Valleta would become a hotbed of spies, and the UK would almost certainly try to insert teams in the island, to try to monitor axis activities.
In any of these situations, I see the North Africa campaign going badly for the UK. The Afrika Corps would be kept pretty much at full strengh (or more) and fully supplied at all times, Axis aircraft and ship loses would drop drasticallty, the Regia Marina would no longer have fuel constraints, the Taranto raid would probably not be possible, what with Axis aircraft based on Malta certainly patroling east of Malta, the Luftwaffe and Regia Aeronautica, free of the need to bomb Malta, would be able to move hundreds of aircraft to Africa... the UK might be able to hold on to Egypt, but actually breaking out and attacking would take much longer, since the opposition would now be much stronger.
Edit: thoughts, comments?
I feel there are 3 ways this could go:
1: Malta is an independent country. I think that, considering the ongoing 1940 desert campaign, this would lead to Italy/Germany either strong arming Malta to allow "basing/overflying rights", or outright conquering it, to protect & support North Africa. I don't think the UK would do this, simply because it did not have the resources to do it; after the debacle of the Greek and Crete campaign, there was no way it would have the troops, ships and aicraft to do it; the effort required would make Pedestal look like a walk in the park. Not because of any realistic defenses Independent Malta would have, but because of the need to escort a fleet that would include troop carriers from Gibraltar. So now there's nothing to stop the flow of supplies & reinforcements to North Africa, except whatever the RAF/RN could deploy in Egypt. But the distances are too great to allow intervention in usefull time and, with convoys routed between Malta and Tunisia, these would have full air and naval coverage based on Malta. Realistically, only submarines would have a chance, but casualties would be high. Minelaying subs would be a priority, I think.
2: Malta is French. This means Vichy. Could the UK rush in fast and hard enough in 1940 to take it over? Would Malta itself decide to go "Free French" and join the allies in 1940? Tactically we would be pretty much back to OTL: Malta becomes an allied choking point, messing up the Axis' North Africa campaign. But strategically & politically this could be messy: the UK would now have invaded part of "France". How would Vichy react, apart from histerical screaming? The Uk would have get there after neutralizing the fleet at Mers-el-Kébir, only I think there's every chance these would say up to Malta, under the cover of "friendly" italian/german aircraft. But now Vichy would be in the alert, so it would certainly do whatever it could to reinforce it, and I doubt the Axis would object to this. And German propaganda would have a field day, playing the "much betrayal from UK" angle. Again.
2a: Malta is part of a Neutral country; let's say Malta is part of Spain. Technially Spain is an Axis friend, but Franco did everything he could to avoid getting into the war; his dance around Hitler's requests became legend. Allowing Malta to become an Axis base would almost certainly bring Spain into the conflict; at the very least I suspect Roosevelt would impose an embargo on Spain, a disaster in the making since Spain got most (all?) of it's oil from the US (I belive other products as well, but cannot find which). I think this would end up with Axis convoys simply sailing around Malta at will, and Axis aircraft overflying Malta as needed, with the Spanish turning a blind eye. When the UK / US protest, Franco simply says "there's nothing I can do, hombres".
2: Malta is part of a Neutral country; let's say Malta is part of Turkey. Both sides in the war kept courting Turkey to join their side, so I doubt anyone would do anything to disturb Malta's status. The Axis would sail clear around it, with aircraft avoiding it's airspace (no great loss in ranges, in either case, so easy to do), and the UK would stay away, since it would no longer be able to operate in the area anyway; the RN would be reduced to submarines, but I think it would avoid mining, for fear of hiting a Turkish ship. La Valleta would become a hotbed of spies, and the UK would almost certainly try to insert teams in the island, to try to monitor axis activities.
In any of these situations, I see the North Africa campaign going badly for the UK. The Afrika Corps would be kept pretty much at full strengh (or more) and fully supplied at all times, Axis aircraft and ship loses would drop drasticallty, the Regia Marina would no longer have fuel constraints, the Taranto raid would probably not be possible, what with Axis aircraft based on Malta certainly patroling east of Malta, the Luftwaffe and Regia Aeronautica, free of the need to bomb Malta, would be able to move hundreds of aircraft to Africa... the UK might be able to hold on to Egypt, but actually breaking out and attacking would take much longer, since the opposition would now be much stronger.
Edit: thoughts, comments?
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