Netherlands win the World Cup in '78 - effects on Argentina?

[MrHola]

The 1978 World Cup was held in Argentina who had two year previously been taken over by a military junta, when Lt. Gen. Jorge Rafael Videla seized power via a military coup. The final was played in 1978, when the host nation defeat the Netherlands. When the junta was awarded the tournament they saw this it as a massive PR exercise that would unite the fractured country and give the regime prestige on the world stage. Argentina took a first half lead through Mario Kempes and despite the constant shin-kicking and elbowing, etc. by the Argentines and scandalous refereeing, the Dutch managed an equaliser with 8 minutes left through Dick Nanninga. In injury time came one of Dutch football’s most heartbreaking moments, as captain Ruud Krol’s 60-yard pass played in Rob Rensenbrink who’s shot from an angle hit the post. Despite the fact Argentina ended up winning the game 3-1, it was a closer victory then one might think.

Suppose that Rensenbrink's ball goes in. The Dutch park the bus and the Argentine team fails to make an equaliser, throwing the game to the Dutch. Furious supporters storm the stadium and the Dutch team narrowly manages to escape in one piece. Riots erupt throughout the country. The junta intervenes without mercy. By now it's clear that their PR-exercise has blown up in their faces. In despair, the junta goes through with operation Soberanía: the invasion of Chile.

Would the Argentines actually be willing to declare war over a lost football match?

 

[MrHola]

No takers?

 

[David II]

Would the Argentines actually be willing to declare war over a lost football match?

Maybe. Although Chile was poor on equipment and manpower, there were plans for a total war and massive resistance. A war with Argentina would be very bloody.

 

[juanml82]

I don't think riots would erupt because of a football defeat. OK, it's a different country nowadays, but last year people celebrated the second place in the World Cup because, well, people were getting ready to celebrate before the match, so after it was over, many decided to celebrate anyway.

I also don't think the Argentine armed forces would turn west. First, it would be winter, so a land campaign is out of the cards for a few months and that allows things to cool down. Second, while the Navy was itching for putting the country at war (and hiding the fleet in port once they've accomplished that), the Army didn't want a war with Chile because they knew it would be a bloodbath and not a quick PR hit. It was a close run affair in OTL, though, but I don't think loosing the World Cup final would have affected it.

What I could see is an interest in the perceived quick PR hit - which is to say, to poke Britain in the eye hoping it wouldn't wake. But I don't know the relative strengths of both countries in 1978 to guess if a less incompetent junta would have tried.